Zell Wolf GWF Wolf - Zell's Game 4 Night 1/Day 1

[Smacktard]

 

[VashTheStampede]

everyone tell me why I shouldn't just kill you tonight

 

[Local Hero]

 

[Local Hero]

@Local Hero what did you get up to last night?

I did do something. It wasn't eating townies though, I like my steak medium-rare, not medium

 

[shortkut]

I already had a joke vote for Local in there so my laziness says stick with that

@Abstain Kelly has made a compelling case to live longer than @Local Hero

Voting @Local Hero to make @Cole upset about a day 1 lynch with no information

@Zell 17 How day phase is until what time again ? I’m on call tonight and want to make sure I can switch off if someone actually looks suspicious

 

[VashTheStampede]

@Abstain Kelly has made a compelling case to live longer than @Local Hero

Voting @Local Hero to make @Cole upset about a day 1 lynch with no information

@Zell 17 How day phase is until what time again ? I’m on call tonight and want to make sure I can switch off if someone actually looks suspicious

But Cole voted for him too??

shortwolf

 

[shortkut]

I did do something. It wasn't eating townies though, I like my steak medium-rare, not medium

So you like your meat more rare… Wolfy? I hope I’m saying this right: awoooo, woof?

 

[shortkut]

But Cole voted for him too??

shortwolf

Yes but Cole plays mind games and is doing it to see how people react. I doubt Cole is the seer and got lucky enough to check and discover local day 1. Even if he was seer, he would probably check @Abstain first anyway.

 

[Local Hero]

Yes but Cole plays mind games and is doing it to see how people react. I doubt Cole is the seer and got lucky enough to check and discover local day 1. Even if he was seer, he would probably check @Abstain first anyway.

How do you know what a seer would or wouldn't do?

 

[shortkut]

How do you know what a seer would or wouldn't do?

Last time I was a seer, I died night 1 but if I remember correctly, I checked Alu

 

[VashTheStampede]

Yes but Cole plays mind games and is doing it to see how people react. I doubt Cole is the seer and got lucky enough to check and discover local day 1. Even if he was seer, he would probably check @Abstain first anyway.

"If your opponent is of a choleric temper, irritate him" - shortkut by way of Tony Soprano by way of Sun Tsu

 

[Zell 17]

Votes to lynch (7 required):

Local Hero - 3 (Cole, Abstain, shortkut)

No vote - 11 (Ants!, Benzine, canadaguy, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Jawneh, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)

Votes to skip (13 required):

No vote - 14 (Abstain, Ants!, Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Jawneh, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, shortkut, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)

 

[shortkut]

"If your opponent is of a choleric temper, irritate him" - shortkut by way of Tony Soprano by way of Sun Tsu

 

[Zell 17]

shortkut's hard drive must be like the Library of Alexandria of useless gifs

 

[shortkut]

shortkut's hard drive must be like the Library of Alexandria of useless gifs

Just use google or the GIPHY app you n00b

 

[Zell 17]

 

[shortkut]

 

[VashTheStampede]

No it's okay he just got reworked and doesn't block a lane anymore

 

[Local Hero]

Cole's behavior is not indicative of being a wolf (not necessarily saying he's innocent though), but the people who joined his voting are more likely to be wolves.

I Vote Shortkut.

 

[Zell 17]

Votes to lynch (7 required):

Local Hero - 3 (Cole, Abstain, shortkut)
shortkut - 1 (Local Hero)

No vote - 10 (Ants!, Benzine, canadaguy, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Jawneh, Kat, Raposa, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)

Votes to skip (13 required):

No vote - 14 (Abstain, Ants!, Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Jawneh, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, shortkut, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)

 

[shortkut]

Cole's behavior is not indicative of being a wolf (not necessarily saying he's innocent though), but the people who joined his voting are more likely to be wolves.

I Vote Shortkut.

@Zell 17 This is one of like 2 gifs I have saved in my phone and I know for a fact @Crazy Jamie would love it

 

[VashTheStampede]

View attachment 1976

@Zell 17 This is one of like 2 gifs I have saved in my phone and I know for a fact @Crazy Jamie would love it

He's not the only one

 

[VashTheStampede]

Voting  Abstain for jumping on the Local Hero vote and to make things more interesting

 

[Raposuh]

View attachment 1976

@Zell 17 This is one of like 2 gifs I have saved in my phone and I know for a fact @Crazy Jamie would love it

https://media.tenor.com/J5A9wZzn3ZYAAAAM/robert-redford-jeremiah-johnson.gif

 

[Local Hero]

Votes to lynch (7 required):

Local Hero - 3 (Cole, Abstain, shortkut)
shortkut - 1 (Local Hero)

No vote - 10 (Ants!, Benzine, canadaguy, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Jawneh, Kat, Raposa, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)

Votes to skip (13 required):

No vote - 14 (Abstain, Ants!, Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Jawneh, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, shortkut, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)

@Jawneh and @Ants! are dead

 

[Zell 17]

Votes to lynch (7 required):

Local Hero - 3 (Cole, Abstain, shortkut)
Abstain - 1 (VashTheStampede)
shortkut - 1 (Local Hero)

No vote - 9 (Benzine, canadaguy, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Raposa, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23)

Votes to skip (13 required):

No vote - 14 (Abstain, Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, shortkut, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)

 

[Raposuh]

@Jawneh and @Ants! are dead

I mean, technically they still haven't voted. It's cuz they're dead, but it's correct.

 

[A Punched Face]

Okay, so we're already down 2 townies and can't bring any back to life, and can't get the knowledge on who is a wolf from the Red Lady.

Depending on who Kat is and if she got the death potion, we might be down a third at the end of the day. That could leave us with 7 townies.

6 non-townies are afoot. 4 specifically wolves.


Turns out the random number generators give wolves better odds.

 

[canadaguy]

@Local Hero I'm worried about you my friend. Is everything ok? Not feeling a little wolfish?

 

[shortkut]

Okay, so we're already down 2 townies and can't bring any back to life, and can't get the knowledge on who is a wolf from the Red Lady.

Depending on who Kat is and if she got the death potion, we might be down a third at the end of the day. That could leave us with 7 townies.

6 non-townies are afoot. 4 specifically wolves.


Turns out the random number generators give wolves better odds.

Do you have any suspicions or are we all just waiting for an expository post from @Cole ?

I miss the days when he an I would argue about the value of a day 1 kill. It takes all the fun out of voting for Local Gyro

 

[Local Hero]

@Local Hero I'm worried about you my friend. Is everything ok? Not feeling a little wolfish?

I am innocent. I hope you think back on all of your experiences with me and know that I don't ever lie. I'm trying to say this sincerely and not sarcastically.

 

[shortkut]

I am innocent. I hope you think back on all of your experiences with me and know that I don't ever lie. I'm trying to say this sincerely and not sarcastically.

 

[A Punched Face]

I am innocent. I hope you think back on all of your experiences with me and know that I don't ever lie. I'm trying to say this sincerely and not sarcastically.

Are you sure you don't lie? Was this post itself a lie?

 

[A Punched Face]

Oh shit an accusation lobbed at me.

 

[shortkut]

Oh shit an accusation lobbed at me.

 

[Raposuh]

I vote A wolf to keep things interesting.

 

[A Punched Face]

This works:


Everyone who is a wolf sucks. Not everyone who sucks is a wolf.


Who amongst us is a square and who is a rectangle.

 

[Zell 17]

Votes to lynch (7 required):

Local Hero - 3 (Cole, A wolf, shortkut)
A wolf - 2 (VashTheStampede, Raposa)
shortkut - 1 (Local Hero)

No vote - 8 (Benzine, canadaguy, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23)

Votes to skip (13 required):

No vote - 14 (A wolf, Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, shortkut, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)

 

[Tommy Boy]

Do you have any suspicions or are we all just waiting for an expository post from @Cole ?

We're completely ignoring him this game as a strategy.

 

[Tommy Boy]

@Benzine what doing

 

[Local Hero]

Votes to lynch (7 required):

Local Hero - 3 (Cole, Abstain, shortkut)
Abstain - 1 (VashTheStampede)
shortkut - 1 (Local Hero)

No vote - 9 (Benzine, canadaguy, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Raposa, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23)

Votes to skip (13 required):

No vote - 14 (Abstain, Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, shortkut, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)

My vote should still be on Shortkut ()

Edit: thanks

 

[Zell 17]

My vote should still be on Shortkut ()

Tsk tsk not waiting on the stealth edits and your post looks dumb!

 

[Local Hero]

Tsk tsk not waiting on the stealth edits and your post looks dumb!

 

[shortkut]

@Benzine what doing

Probably sleeping like every game

 

[Smacktard]

EFFORT POST INCOMING

Ladies and gentlewolves, I would like to draw your attention to this post:

everyone tell me why I shouldn't just kill you tonight

Here is Cole implying that he has the ability to kill at night, so I crunched some numbers. Now, the caveat is that I grew up crunching more of the Cap'n's sugary goodness at the breakfast table than I did numbers in math class, so my calculations may be a little, uh, whack. Feel free to correct my math if I forgot to carry an exponent or something. Anyway, I digress.

Village Team
Everyone playing the game has a 4/7 (8/14) chance of being on the village team, so we'll assume the same for Cole.

The only village roles that can kill during the night are:
Marksman
Witch
**Jailer
...which are not among the guaranteed village roles. That means OF the 8 original village team members still standing, there is a 2/8 chance that Cole would be chosen for a RANDOM village role.

Of that 2/8 chance, only **THREE roles of the total **SEVENTEEN randomized roles would be able to kill during the night. So the chances of Cole being a member of the village team that can kill are... 4/7 * 2/8 * 2/17 = 16/952 = 2/119

Solo Killer Team
HOWEVER, there is also a 1/16 chance of Cole being on the random killer solo team. Of the 6 roles listed, only THREE are able to kill *during the night*:
Serial killer
Corruptor
Arsonist

So 1/16 * 3/6 = 1/32 chance he's a solo killer, of the above three roles.

Wolf Team
There's also the chance, of course, that Cole is a wolf. Although no wolves can kill independently of the pack (I think?), he could be indicating that he's running the show behind the scenes, if he is.
1/4 (4/16) chance of being a member of the wolf pack.

Bluffing Team
Of course, there is always the chance that he is just bluffing.

If we add up the previous numbers, this indicates there's likely a (roughly) 23/32 chance that he's just bluffing.

Conclusion
So what does that tell you? Fuck if I know. I'm just the numbers guy. I've never played Wolf with Cole before, so I don't know much about how he plays. In truth, we need a Cole psychiatrist. Unfortunately, the only Cole psychiatrist I know has recently taken a sabbatical. Any other Frauds Freuds willing to step up chaise longue*-shaped plate?
*I just learned this word right now.

 

[shortkut]

EFFORT POST INCOMING

Ladies and gentlewolves, I would like to draw your attention to this post:

Here is Cole implying that he has the ability to kill at night, so I crunched some numbers. Now, the caveat is that I grew up crunching more of the Cap'n's sugary goodness at the breakfast table than I did numbers in math class, so my calculations may be a little, uh, whack. Feel free to correct my math if I forgot to carry an exponent or something. Anyway, I digress.

Village Team
Everyone playing the game has a 1/9 chance of being on the village team, so we'll assume the same for Cole.

The only village roles that can kill during the night are:
Marksman
Witch
...which are not among the guaranteed village roles. That means OF the 9 original village team members still standing, there is a 3/9 chance that Cole would be chosen for a RANDOM village role.

Of that 1/3 chance, only TWO roles of the total SEVENTEEN would be able to kill during the night. So the chances of Cole being a member of the village team that can kill are... 1/9 * 3/9 * 2/17 = 2/459

Solo Killer Team
HOWEVER, there is also a 1/16 chance of Cole being on the random killer solo team. Of the 6 roles listed, only THREE are able to kill *during the night*:
Serial killer
Corruptor
Arsonist

So 1/16 * 3/6 = 1/32 chance he's a solo killer, of the above three roles.

Wolf Team
There's also the chance, of course, that Cole is a wolf. Although no wolves can kill independently of the pack (I think?), he could be indicating that he's running the show behind the scenes, if he is.
1/4 (4/16) chance of being a member of the wolf pack.

Bluffing Team
Of course, there is always the chance that he is just bluffing.

If we add up the previous numbers, this indicates there's likely a (roughly) 23/32 chance that he's just bluffing.

Conclusion
So what does that tell you? Fuck if I know. I'm just the numbers guy. I've never played Wolf with Cole before, so I don't know much about how he plays. In truth, we need a Cole psychiatrist. Unfortunately, the only Cole psychiatrist I know has recently taken a sabbatical. Any other Frauds Freuds willing to step up chaise longue*-shaped plate?
*I just learned this word right now.

It’s time for 5 pages of posts regarding odds, @Cole

 

[Tommy Boy]

Cole is bluffing about having night powers.

 

[canadaguy]

EFFORT POST INCOMING

Ladies and gentlewolves, I would like to draw your attention to this post:

Here is Cole implying that he has the ability to kill at night, so I crunched some numbers. Now, the caveat is that I grew up crunching more of the Cap'n's sugary goodness at the breakfast table than I did numbers in math class, so my calculations may be a little, uh, whack. Feel free to correct my math if I forgot to carry an exponent or something. Anyway, I digress.

Village Team
Everyone playing the game has a 1/9 chance of being on the village team, so we'll assume the same for Cole.

The only village roles that can kill during the night are:
Marksman
Witch
...which are not among the guaranteed village roles. That means OF the 9 original village team members still standing, there is a 3/9 chance that Cole would be chosen for a RANDOM village role.

Of that 1/3 chance, only TWO roles of the total SEVENTEEN would be able to kill during the night. So the chances of Cole being a member of the village team that can kill are... 1/9 * 3/9 * 2/17 = 2/459

Solo Killer Team
HOWEVER, there is also a 1/16 chance of Cole being on the random killer solo team. Of the 6 roles listed, only THREE are able to kill *during the night*:
Serial killer
Corruptor
Arsonist

So 1/16 * 3/6 = 1/32 chance he's a solo killer, of the above three roles.

Wolf Team
There's also the chance, of course, that Cole is a wolf. Although no wolves can kill independently of the pack (I think?), he could be indicating that he's running the show behind the scenes, if he is.
1/4 (4/16) chance of being a member of the wolf pack.

Bluffing Team
Of course, there is always the chance that he is just bluffing.

If we add up the previous numbers, this indicates there's likely a (roughly) 23/32 chance that he's just bluffing.

Conclusion
So what does that tell you? Fuck if I know. I'm just the numbers guy. I've never played Wolf with Cole before, so I don't know much about how he plays. In truth, we need a Cole psychiatrist. Unfortunately, the only Cole psychiatrist I know has recently taken a sabbatical. Any other Frauds Freuds willing to step up chaise longue*-shaped plate?
*I just learned this word right now.

Holy cow

 

[Raposuh]

Conclusion
So what does that tell you? Fuck if I know. I'm just the numbers guy. I've never played Wolf with Cole before, so I don't know much about how he plays. In truth, we need a Cole psychiatrist. Unfortunately, the only Cole psychiatrist I know has recently taken a sabbatical. Any other Frauds Freuds willing to step up chaise longue*-shaped plate?
*I just learned this word right now.

 

[Zell 17]

EFFORT POST INCOMING

Ladies and gentlewolves, I would like to draw your attention to this post:

Here is Cole implying that he has the ability to kill at night, so I crunched some numbers. Now, the caveat is that I grew up crunching more of the Cap'n's sugary goodness at the breakfast table than I did numbers in math class, so my calculations may be a little, uh, whack. Feel free to correct my math if I forgot to carry an exponent or something. Anyway, I digress.

Village Team
Everyone playing the game has a 1/9 chance of being on the village team, so we'll assume the same for Cole.

The only village roles that can kill during the night are:
Marksman
Witch
...which are not among the guaranteed village roles. That means OF the 9 original village team members still standing, there is a 3/9 chance that Cole would be chosen for a RANDOM village role.

Of that 1/3 chance, only TWO roles of the total SEVENTEEN would be able to kill during the night. So the chances of Cole being a member of the village team that can kill are... 1/9 * 3/9 * 2/17 = 2/459

Solo Killer Team
HOWEVER, there is also a 1/16 chance of Cole being on the random killer solo team. Of the 6 roles listed, only THREE are able to kill *during the night*:
Serial killer
Corruptor
Arsonist

So 1/16 * 3/6 = 1/32 chance he's a solo killer, of the above three roles.

Wolf Team
There's also the chance, of course, that Cole is a wolf. Although no wolves can kill independently of the pack (I think?), he could be indicating that he's running the show behind the scenes, if he is.
1/4 (4/16) chance of being a member of the wolf pack.

Bluffing Team
Of course, there is always the chance that he is just bluffing.

If we add up the previous numbers, this indicates there's likely a (roughly) 23/32 chance that he's just bluffing.

Conclusion
So what does that tell you? Fuck if I know. I'm just the numbers guy. I've never played Wolf with Cole before, so I don't know much about how he plays. In truth, we need a Cole psychiatrist. Unfortunately, the only Cole psychiatrist I know has recently taken a sabbatical. Any other Frauds Freuds willing to step up chaise longue*-shaped plate?
*I just learned this word right now.

……I hate you so, so much.