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Zell Wolf GWF Wolf - Zell's Game 4 Night 1/Day 1

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Tommy Boy

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  • Night Phase:
    • Wolves choosing a target: With 5 wolves and 14 players remaining, the probability of wolves successfully targeting a non-wolf player is 12/14 (since there are 12 non-wolf players out of 14 total players), or about 85.71%.
    • Solo killers choosing a target: Each solo killer (2 in total) has a 1/14 chance of targeting any specific player.
  • Day Phase:
    • Given that two townies have already been eliminated during the night phase, there are now 16 - 2 = 14 players remaining in the game.
    • Lynch odds: As before, the odds of correctly identifying and lynching a wolf or killer depend on player discussions and strategies. With 7 opposing players (5 wolves + 2 solo killers) and 14 townies, the townies are in the minority and need to carefully strategize to identify and eliminate the opposing players.
  • Endgame Scenarios:
    • With the elimination of two townies, the dynamics of the game have shifted. The remaining players need to carefully consider their decisions to maximize their chances of winning.
 
VashTheStampede

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Tommy Boy said:
  • Night Phase:
    • Wolves choosing a target: With 5 wolves and 14 players remaining, the probability of wolves successfully targeting a non-wolf player is 12/14 (since there are 12 non-wolf players out of 14 total players), or about 85.71%.
    • Solo killers choosing a target: Each solo killer (2 in total) has a 1/14 chance of targeting any specific player.
  • Day Phase:
    • Given that two townies have already been eliminated during the night phase, there are now 16 - 2 = 14 players remaining in the game.
    • Lynch odds: As before, the odds of correctly identifying and lynching a wolf or killer depend on player discussions and strategies. With 7 opposing players (5 wolves + 2 solo killers) and 14 townies, the townies are in the minority and need to carefully strategize to identify and eliminate the opposing players.
  • Endgame Scenarios:
    • With the elimination of two townies, the dynamics of the game have shifted. The remaining players need to carefully consider their decisions to maximize their chances of winning.
Click to expand...
You mean to tell me we need to kill bad guys and not kill good guys?
 
A Punched Face

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Tommy Boy said:
  • Night Phase:
    • Wolves choosing a target: With 5 wolves and 14 players remaining, the probability of wolves successfully targeting a non-wolf player is 12/14 (since there are 12 non-wolf players out of 14 total players), or about 85.71%.
    • Solo killers choosing a target: Each solo killer (2 in total) has a 1/14 chance of targeting any specific player.
  • Day Phase:
    • Given that two townies have already been eliminated during the night phase, there are now 16 - 2 = 14 players remaining in the game.
    • Lynch odds: As before, the odds of correctly identifying and lynching a wolf or killer depend on player discussions and strategies. With 7 opposing players (5 wolves + 2 solo killers) and 14 townies, the townies are in the minority and need to carefully strategize to identify and eliminate the opposing players.
  • Endgame Scenarios:
    • With the elimination of two townies, the dynamics of the game have shifted. The remaining players need to carefully consider their decisions to maximize their chances of winning.
Click to expand...
What

Why is the first number always wrong.
 
Tommy Boy

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A wolf said:
Also lmao at it giving 12/14 odds of the wolves targeting non-wolves. Yeah, that sounds like straight up Kelly math.
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You're absolutely right, and I apologize for the oversight. The wolves would not target themselves, so the probability of them successfully targeting a non-wolf player during the night phase would be even higher than 12/14.

With 5 wolves and 14 players remaining, there are 9 non-wolf players. The correct probability of wolves successfully targeting a non-wolf player would be 9/14, which is approximately 64.29%.

Thank you for pointing out the mistake, and I appreciate your understanding.
 
VashTheStampede

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Tommy Boy said:
This is the opposite of what's supposed to happen!!!!
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Yeah but trying to post a big detailed breakdown to look like you're trying to help...but using a robot what doesn't math right and not actually putting in the effort (Kelly effort or not) feels like a wolf trying to fit in.
 
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Tommy Boy

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VashTheStampede said:
Yeah but trying to post a big detailed breakdown to look like you're trying to help...but using a robot what doesn't math right and not actually putting in the effort (Kelly effort or not) feels like a wolf trying to fit in.
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Fair but I already revealed my role a while ago, so at this point the breakdown was just for the lulz.
 
Zell 17

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Sure seems like we're getting somewhere.

Votes to lynch (7 required):

A wolf - 2 (Raposa, Local Hero)
canadaguy - 1 (Cole)
Cole - 1 (shortkut)
Local Hero - 1 (A wolf)
Tommy Boy - 1 (VashTheStampede)

No vote - 8 (Benzine, canadaguy, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23)

Votes to skip (13 required):

No vote - 14 (A wolf, Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, shortkut, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)
 
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In before phantom edit
Local Hero said:
I change my vote to @A wolf for accusing a proven townie
Click to expand...

Zell 17 said:
Sure seems like we're getting somewhere.

Votes to lynch (7 required):

A wolf - 1 (Raposa)
canadaguy - 1 (Cole)
Cole - 1 (shortkut)
Local Hero - 1 (A wolf)
shortkut - 1 (Local Hero)
Tommy Boy - 1 (VashTheStampede)

No vote - 8 (Benzine, canadaguy, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23)

Votes to skip (13 required):

No vote - 14 (A wolf, Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, shortkut, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)
Click to expand...
 
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