Zell Wolf GWF Wolf - Zell's Game 4 Night 1/Day 1

[Zell 17]

Votes to lynch (7 required):

Kat - 2 (shortkut, Tubby23)
Alu - 2 (Raposa, VashTheStampede)
Local Hero - 1 (Alu)
Smacktard - 1 (Fool's Requiem)

No vote - 8 (Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Kat, Local Hero, Smacktard, Tommy Boy)

Votes to skip (13 required):

No vote - 14 (Alu, Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, shortkut, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)

 

[shortkut]

We have more non-voters than voters. I wouldn’t be surprised if all or most of them were wolves, just laughing at us

 

[Benzine]

Because I’m you from the future?

That is upsetting for both of us

 

[Benzine]

We have more non-voters than voters. I wouldn’t be surprised if all or most of them were wolves, just laughing at us

It's 306pm for me, I'm just waiting for whatever the most helpful information ends up being. I'll be up for most of it, except the last couple of hours.

 

[Tubby23]

We have more non-voters than voters. I wouldn’t be surprised if all or most of them were wolves, just laughing at us

Let's say we rule out Cole from that bunch and Benzine who regular abstains Day 1.

Kat
Canadaguy
Tommy Boy
LH
Smacktard
FQ

What are you guys going to be up to tonight?

 

[canadaguy]

Let's say we rule out Cole from that bunch and Benzine who regular abstains Day 1.

Kat
Canadaguy
Tommy Boy
LH
Smacktard
FQ

What are you guys going to be up to tonight?

Same thing as last night, absolutely nothing

 

[A Punched Face]

Better than killing a townie who isn't already dying

I didn't say don't do it, just that it would be funny if Zell pulled that one on us.

 

[Tommy Boy]

I'm sorry, you revealed your own role for no reason and are asking for protection?

Yeah, that's exactly what I did and since nobody else has come forward with any indication on how they can help the town, what is your suggestion? The jailer protects someone random? I can't think of one reason anyone would be against locking me up unless the seer has already found somebody plenty more valuable - which I'd be fine with. But if the seer and the jailer aren't openly communicating, and I have a day power that can 100% kill a wolf, then yeah, I think it's reasonable to ask for protection.

 

[canadaguy]

Man how wild would it be for the first time someone pulls an Anti-tubby would be if they did it to Tubby?

 

[Smacktard]

The holy super soaker

I call it the "Gushing Nun"

 

[Tubby23]

Man how wild would it be for the first time someone pulls an Anti-tubby would be if they did it to Tubby?

That would be poetic, it's unfortunate that this game isn't the right opportunity

 

[shortkut]

Man how wild would it be for the first time someone pulls an Anti-tubby would be if they did it to Tubby?

Haha

 

[Kat]

We have more non-voters than voters. I wouldn’t be surprised if all or most of them were wolves, just laughing at us

Obviously they're not all wolves, and it's interesting to suggest all the wolves wouldn't have voted when it's in their interest to lynch.

Let's say we rule out Cole from that bunch and Benzine who regular abstains Day 1.

Kat
Canadaguy
Tommy Boy
LH
Smacktard
FQ

What are you guys going to be up to tonight?

Why rule out Cole? Don't get me wrong, I'm glad he backed off of me, but I'm not convinced he's innocent.

I'll tell you tomorrow what I did tonight and last night (assuming I'm still alive, of course).

I didn't say don't do it, just that it would be funny if Zell pulled that one on us.

Maybe for you! This uncertainty is surprisingly stressful.

 

[Smacktard]

All the obvious bad math aside

Okay but by the time you read my post, the math was fixed and the end result was largely the same. Only the fraction for the "villagers who can kill" was off, and it went from 1/56 to 1/59.5

this is not how statistics work. This is like saying, "this person confessed to stabbing a person we found stabbed to death, but there are eight billion people in this world, so there's only 1/8 billion chance they're telling the truth, therefore we should assume they're lying." Yeah they could be lying (and oddly that does happen a lot), but you can't figure that out based on odds like that.

No, this is not how statistics works. My bad math aside, this is much worse. It's a bad example. In the real world:
1) we don't have a known number of roles assigned to people
2) we don't know how likely people are to end up in those roles
3) we don't how many murders people commit
4) proximity affects likelihood of murderer having committed the murder
5) a thousand other variables that would come into play
In this game, we DO know how many roles on each team there are, and given random chance, we know how likely people are to end up with a CERTAIN role. It's a self-contained game where we DO have all of the numerical information needed to break numbers down.

Your analogy is like saying "it's impossible to know poker odds because there's a 1/52 chance of next drawing any card because that's the total number of cards".

 

[Tubby23]

Why rule out Cole? Don't get me wrong, I'm glad he backed off of me, but I'm not convinced he's innocent.

I'll tell you tomorrow what I did tonight and last night (assuming I'm still alive, of course).

I'm ruling Cole out of the question in this case because he's already implied what his role is and what he will be up to each night.

I just wanted to ask you 6. It's not to say I'm more or less suspicious of you lot overall (although I admittedly find you more suspicious than others) it's just a info gathering exercise based on a select group who have done the same thing and potentially are Wolves playing idly given their current position of power.

 

[Local Hero]

This game is a lot harder without warp explaining everything

 

[shortkut]

Okay but by the time you read my post, the math was fixed and the end result was largely the same. Only the fraction for the "villagers who can kill" was off, and it went from 1/56 to 1/59.5

No, this is not how statistics works. My bad math aside, this is much worse. It's a bad example. In the real world:
1) we don't have a known number of roles assigned to people
2) we don't know how likely people are to end up in those roles
3) we don't how many murders people commit
4) proximity affects likelihood of murderer having committed the murder
5) a thousand other variables that would come into play
In this game, we DO know how many roles on each team there are, and given random chance, we know how likely people are to end up with a CERTAIN role. It's a self-contained game where we DO have all of the numerical information needed to break numbers down.

Your analogy is like saying "it's impossible to know poker odds because there's a 1/52 chance of next drawing any card because that's the total number of cards".

@Cole why do you keep ignoring the posts about odds?

 

[Local Hero]

@Cole why do you keep ignoring the posts about odds?

Cole, probably

 

[Smacktard]

What are you guys going to be up to tonight?

Sleeping I guess, idk.

I'm waiting for more info to come out. We know Tommy's role (or at least his claim, which no one has countered), and Local seems to be good too, so I won't vote for him. Not voting kut either since he completes our polyquadsquad.

Kat sounds sus but her intentions seem pure. Cole is just flinging spaghetti and seeing what sticks. Everyone else is SUS.

 

[canadaguy]

Sleeping I guess, idk.

I'm waiting for more info to come out. We know Tommy's role (or at least his claim, which no one has countered), and Local seems to be good too, so I won't vote for him. Not voting kut either since he completes our polyquadsquad.

Kat sounds sus but her intentions seem pure. Cole is just flinging spaghetti and seeing what sticks. Everyone else is SUS.

Because of the random townie roles, even a second person claiming the same role as tommy wouldn't counter it. We've seen some, let's say, interesting things from the random roles.

 

[Smacktard]

Because of the random townie roles, even a second person claiming the same role as tommy wouldn't counter it. We've seen some, let's say, interesting things from the random roles.

Oh right. It looks like the only roles that definitely don't have doubles are Gunner, Jailer, and Medium.

 

[Tubby23]

 

[canadaguy]

What a beast

 

[Benzine]

There's not really been any information good enough to make me comfortable to lynch someone. I'll be going to bed somewhat soon. Good luck all.

 

[Smacktard]

Do we have the luxury of time to spare though? Kat is either dead or half-dead. We have another potential wolf murder tonight, maybe more townie deaths if we have some misfires (priest, marksman misfires, etc.) and then the potential for the alchemist to finish off Kat and kill another tomorrow.

At the very least wouldn't it make sense to lynch Kat? She could be bluffing and actually be the alchemist herself, and if she's not, she would likely get a second red potion tomorrow and die anyway.

 

[shortkut]

No one is close to the required votes for a lynch, so unless a bandwagon forms, every vote is just people stating who they are suspicious of.

 

[Smacktard]

It is crunch time though. A bandwagon could form aaaaaaany minute now...

 

[VashTheStampede]

It is crunch time though. A bandwagon could form aaaaaaany minute now...

 

[Raposuh]

I vote Smacktard for being so set on lynching someone. Let's get this wagon moving!

 

[A Punched Face]

I'll do a switch to Kat as an end of the day twist

 

[shortkut]

I'll do a switch to Kat as an end of the day twist

 

[Raposuh]

 

[VashTheStampede]

I'll do a switch to Kat as an end of the day twist

 

[Local Hero]

Kat just jumped up to 5 votes.

 

[VashTheStampede]

At the very least wouldn't it make sense to lynch Kat? She could be bluffing and actually be the alchemist herself, and if she's not, she would likely get a second red potion tomorrow and die anyway.

I highly doubt she's the Alchemist because why would a random killer want to let us know which RK is in the game?

I COULD see her bluffing as a wolf but not the RK.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Matter of fact, Kat has claimed townie with a helpful role. Would behoove wolves to kill her before a possible use of said role before the night phase.

 

[Local Hero]

Matter of fact, Kat has claimed townie with a helpful role. Would behoove wolves to kill her before a possible use of said role before the night phase.

She also said she rolled at 15, but it wasn't helpful.

I rolled a die. It wasn't very helpful since it rolled a 15.

 

[Local Hero]

Maybe Kat's something like doctor, that would normally have protected jawneh, but he died from his own action, thus couldn't be saved?

 

[Cole]

Matter of fact, Kat has claimed townie with a helpful role. Would behoove wolves to kill her before a possible use of said role before the night phase.

all the townies have "helpful" roles.

this reasoning always weirds me out. people constantly say it as a means to role claim, but what does it actually mean?

 

[A Punched Face]

all the townies have "helpful" roles.

this reasoning always weirds me out. people constantly say it as a means to role claim, but what does it actually mean?

"I'm still alive and would love to keep it that way without further explanation"

Also, times up?

 

[Zell 17]

"I'm still alive and would love to keep it that way without further explanation"

Also, times up?

Threads been locked, bud

Anyways, the town could not decide on someone to lynch. Please send night actions.

 

[Zell 17]

@Cole
@Tommy Boy
@A name starting with T
@Fire Queen
@shortkut
@canadaguy
@Raposa
@VashTheStampede
@Smacktard
@Local Hero
@Fool's Requiem
@Tubby23
@Benzine
@Kat

Everyone on the list has checked in with a night action or at least said hi. If you want to Skip so we don’t wait another 8 hours to open up let me know. Or maybe you don’t!