Zell Wolf GWF Wolf - Zell's Game 4 Night 1/Day 1

[Zell 17]

JUST TO START WITH there are 10 villagers, and 8 are alive. I need you to explain to the class where 1/9 came from.

…Whaddya mean this it outside of my hosting duties. THE MATH IS IMPORTANT

 

[A Punched Face]

JUST TO START WITH there are 10 villagers, and 8 are alive. I need you to explain to the class where 1/9 came from.

…Whaddya mean this it outside of my hosting duties. THE MATH IS IMPORTANT

I was also going to comment about how literally the first number was wrong.

 

[Smacktard]

D.

 

[A Punched Face]

FYI the correct number would have been:

Everyone has a 5/8 chance (AKA 10/16) of being a villager.

 

[Raposuh]

D.

Let's not bring the dead (Ants) into this, explain your faulty math.

 

[Fire Queen]

 

[Smacktard]

I was also going to comment about how literally the first number was wrong.

...I am not a smart man.

JUST TO START WITH there are 10 villagers, and 8 are alive. I need you to explain to the class where 1/9 came from.

…Whaddya mean this it outside of my hosting duties. THE MATH IS IMPORTANT

Like any responsible and mature person, I immediately foist the blame on to you for not crossing out the Red Lady's role.

Edited the maths in the original post.
wait no one second i am bad at this

 

[Raposuh]

...I am not a smart man.

Like any responsible and mature person, I immediately foist the blame on to you for not crossing out the Red Lady's role.

Edited the maths in the original post.

We could potentially have 3 red ladies so that's why it's not crossed out. Somebody else can tell us the odds for that.

 

[shortkut]

Wait, is the odds debate over already? Back to the hunt then

 

[Cole]

changing vote to Smacktard

 

[A Punched Face]

...I am not a smart man.

Like any responsible and mature person, I immediately foist the blame on to you for not crossing out the Red Lady's role.

Edited the maths in the original post.

Still wrong lol.

It's not a 1/8 odds of being a townie. What are you on about. The majority of people in the game are townies so it needs to be above 50%.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Not to pile on, but Kelly didn't even account for ALL of the village roles that can kill at night.

But I do feel Coleman is bluffing.

 

[Smacktard]

Still wrong lol.

It's not a 1/8 odds of being a townie. What are you on about. The majority of people in the game are townies so it needs to be above 50%.

Yeah I just realized that right now. Fixed.

We could potentially have 3 red ladies so that's why it's not crossed out. Somebody else can tell us the odds for that.

Ah, didn't realize there could be repeat roles. Well fuck.

 

[A Punched Face]

Yeah I just realized that right now. Fixed.

Ah, didn't realize there could be repeat roles. Well fuck.

You were right that it was an effort post. You just didn't know what you were doing with said effort.

 

[VashTheStampede]

He also didn't say if it was HIGH or LOW effort

 

[Cole]

Not to pile on, but Kelly didn't even account for ALL of the village roles that can kill at night.

But I do feel Coleman is bluffing.

you've played poker with me. I don't bluff

 

[VashTheStampede]

you've played poker with me. I don't bluff

you've known me for years. I wouldn't be able to remember that

 

[A Punched Face]

He also didn't say if it was HIGH or LOW effort

 

[Cole]

you've known me for years. I wouldn't be able to remember that

if it was a bluff, would I really do this?

changing vote to VashTheStampede

 

[A Punched Face]

if it was a bluff, would I really do this?

changing vote to VashTheStampede

You seem to be voting for everyone but @A wolf - that seems to be very wolf like behavior.

 

[VashTheStampede]

 

[VashTheStampede]

if it was a bluff, would I really do this?

changing vote to VashTheStampede

Yes

 

[Tommy Boy]

you've played poker with me. I don't bluff

 

[canadaguy]

...I am not a smart man.

It's okay I forgive you

 

[Zell 17]

it’s a mistake updating totals before Cole changes again

Votes to lynch (7 required):

Local Hero - 2 (A wolf, shortkut)
A wolf - 2 (VashTheStampede, Raposa)
shortkut - 1 (Local Hero)
VashTheStampede - 1 (Cole)

No vote - 8 (Benzine, canadaguy, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23)

Votes to skip (13 required):

No vote - 14 (A wolf, Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, shortkut, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)

 

[canadaguy]

Ah, didn't realize there could be repeat roles. Well fuck.

Look at this guy not knowing about the triple aura seer event of the 2023

 

[A Punched Face]

Kelly please write up an equation on who to vote for so we know who to not vote for

 

[Zell 17]

I promise the town doesn’t have 5 seers this game. Only because the Red Lady is already dead.

 

[A Punched Face]

I promise the town doesn’t have 5 seers this game. Only because the Red Lady is already dead.

Turns out there are no wolves in this game and you just killed Ants because it was funny. Everyone is a red lady

 

[canadaguy]

How come the aura seer is not telling us someone is a wolf and that they have nothing else to say

 

[Cole]

How come the aura seer is not telling us someone is a wolf and that they have nothing else to say

I have plenty to say, wolfboy.

vote canadaguy

 

[Smacktard]

Not to pile on, but Kelly didn't even account for ALL of the village roles that can kill at night

There are some village roles that can lead to deaths at night, but not which can kill at night AFAIK.

He also didn't say if it was HIGH or LOW effort

Me realizing I can't blame my math fuck up on being drunk when I live in a dry country

Kelly please write up an equation on who to vote for so we know who to not vote for

EZPZ:
Vote for Smacktard = Yes.

 

[Zell 17]

Votes to lynch (7 required):

Local Hero - 2 (A wolf, shortkut)
A wolf - 2 (VashTheStampede, Raposa)
shortkut - 1 (Local Hero)
canadaguy - 1 (Cole)

No vote - 8 (Benzine, canadaguy, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23)

Votes to skip (13 required):

No vote - 14 (A wolf, Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, shortkut, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)

 

[Smacktard]

I have plenty to say, wolfboy.

vote canadaguy

Claiming to be seer now, eh?

 

[shortkut]

I was this many years old when I learned canids cannot do math

 

[canadaguy]

I have plenty to say, wolfboy.

vote canadaguy

Do not make me do something one of us will regret son

 

[VashTheStampede]

you've played poker with me. I don't bluff

Remember Zell Game 1 when you spent the whole first day bluffing?

"I bring all sorts of pleasantness to the table. I hardly ever bluff and I never, ever, cheat." - Bret Maverick

I love that movie. Solid B level flick.

 

[Cole]

Remember Zell Game 1 when you spent the whole first day bluffing?

"I bring all sorts of pleasantness to the table. I hardly ever bluff and I never, ever, cheat." - Bret Maverick

I love that movie. Solid B level flick.

zell 1 I did nothing but tell the truth.

 

[Cole]

Do not make me do something one of us will regret son

try me.

 

[shortkut]

zell 1 I did nothing but tell the truth.

You also spent time howling at the moon if I recall

 

[Benzine]

Also yeah, as @Raposa mentioned I will be pretty busy for a bit here...had an offer accepted on a home this morning and jumping through hoops to get everything taken care of to finalize the deal.

Congratulations!

Just use google or the GIPHY app you n00b

Giphy is so shit.

@Benzine what doing

The day opens at 1am for me, so I’ve just woken up and have read this thread first thing. These things I do, I do for you.

I’m fully up to date. Besides Alu’s impending purchase and Kelly’s inability to read or count, nothing of note has been shared.

Now? Since I’m still in bed, I’m gonna close my eyes a bit longer… cause fuck wednesdays.

 

[VashTheStampede]

zell 1 I did nothing but tell the truth.

Zell 1 you bluffed that you 100% found a wolf to generate conversation and it ended up with Tommy Boy dead in the street.

 

[Tommy Boy]

The day opens at 1am for me, so I’ve just woken up and have read this thread first thing. These things I do, I do for you.

I’m fully up to date. Besides Alu’s impending purchase and Kelly’s inability to read or count, nothing of note has been shared.

Now? Since I’m still in bed, I’m gonna close my eyes a bit longer… cause fuck wednesdays.

 

[VashTheStampede]

There are some village roles that can lead to deaths at night, but not which can kill at night AFAIK.

Still wrong lol

 

[canadaguy]

try me.

I swear to God

 

[Smacktard]

Still wrong lol

What ones was I missing?

 

[Local Hero]

EFFORT POST INCOMING

Ladies and gentlewolves, I would like to draw your attention to this post:

Here is Cole implying that he has the ability to kill at night, so I crunched some numbers. Now, the caveat is that I grew up crunching more of the Cap'n's sugary goodness at the breakfast table than I did numbers in math class, so my calculations may be a little, uh, whack. Feel free to correct my math if I forgot to carry an exponent or something. Anyway, I digress.

Village Team
Everyone playing the game has a 4/7 (8/14) chance of being on the village team, so we'll assume the same for Cole.

The only village roles that can kill during the night are:
Marksman
Witch
...which are not among the guaranteed village roles. That means OF the 8 original village team members still standing, there is a 2/8 chance that Cole would be chosen for a RANDOM village role.

Of that 2/8 chance, only TWO roles of the total SIXTEEN remaining roles would be able to kill during the night. So the chances of Cole being a member of the village team that can kill are... 4/7 * 2/8 * 2/16 = 16/896 = 1/56

Solo Killer Team
HOWEVER, there is also a 1/16 chance of Cole being on the random killer solo team. Of the 6 roles listed, only THREE are able to kill *during the night*:
Serial killer
Corruptor
Arsonist

So 1/16 * 3/6 = 1/32 chance he's a solo killer, of the above three roles.

Wolf Team
There's also the chance, of course, that Cole is a wolf. Although no wolves can kill independently of the pack (I think?), he could be indicating that he's running the show behind the scenes, if he is.
1/4 (4/16) chance of being a member of the wolf pack.

Bluffing Team
Of course, there is always the chance that he is just bluffing.

If we add up the previous numbers, this indicates there's likely a (roughly) 23/32 chance that he's just bluffing.

Conclusion
So what does that tell you? Fuck if I know. I'm just the numbers guy. I've never played Wolf with Cole before, so I don't know much about how he plays. In truth, we need a Cole psychiatrist. Unfortunately, the only Cole psychiatrist I know has recently taken a sabbatical. Any other Frauds Freuds willing to step up chaise longue*-shaped plate?
*I just learned this word right now.

I thought this would cause a flurry of activity but instead, Kelly broke everyone.

 

[Local Hero]

Oh wait, after I posted now I see there were a ton of posts I didn't get notified about. How suspect

 

[VashTheStampede]

What ones was I missing?

Just one, by my count.

 

[Raposuh]

Jailer gets to kill their jailee if they choose to, Kelly.