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Zell Wolf GWF Wolf - Zell's Game 4 Night 1/Day 1
- Thread starter Zell 17
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VashTheStampede
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I did do something. It wasn't eating townies though, I like my steak medium-rare, not medium
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@Abstain Kelly has made a compelling case to live longer than @Local Hero
Voting @Local Hero to make @Cole upset about a day 1 lynch with no information
@Zell 17 How day phase is until what time again ? I’m on call tonight and want to make sure I can switch off if someone actually looks suspicious
VashTheStampede
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So you like your meat more rare… Wolfy? I hope I’m saying this right: awoooo, woof?
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Yes but Cole plays mind games and is doing it to see how people react. I doubt Cole is the seer and got lucky enough to check and discover local day 1. Even if he was seer, he would probably check @Abstain first anyway.
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How do you know what a seer would or wouldn't do?
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Last time I was a seer, I died night 1 but if I remember correctly, I checked Alu
VashTheStampede
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"If your opponent is of a choleric temper, irritate him" - shortkut by way of Tony Soprano by way of Sun Tsu
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Votes to lynch (7 required):
Local Hero - 3 (Cole, Abstain, shortkut)
No vote - 11 (Ants!, Benzine, canadaguy, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Jawneh, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)
Votes to skip (13 required):
No vote - 14 (Abstain, Ants!, Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Jawneh, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, shortkut, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)
Local Hero - 3 (Cole, Abstain, shortkut)
No vote - 11 (Ants!, Benzine, canadaguy, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Jawneh, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)
Votes to skip (13 required):
No vote - 14 (Abstain, Ants!, Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Jawneh, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, shortkut, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)
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Just use google or the GIPHY app you n00b
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VashTheStampede
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No it's okay he just got reworked and doesn't block a lane anymore
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Votes to lynch (7 required):
Local Hero - 3 (Cole, Abstain, shortkut)
shortkut - 1 (Local Hero)
No vote - 10 (Ants!, Benzine, canadaguy, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Jawneh, Kat, Raposa, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)
Votes to skip (13 required):
No vote - 14 (Abstain, Ants!, Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Jawneh, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, shortkut, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)
Local Hero - 3 (Cole, Abstain, shortkut)
shortkut - 1 (Local Hero)
No vote - 10 (Ants!, Benzine, canadaguy, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Jawneh, Kat, Raposa, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)
Votes to skip (13 required):
No vote - 14 (Abstain, Ants!, Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Jawneh, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, shortkut, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)
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@Zell 17 This is one of like 2 gifs I have saved in my phone and I know for a fact @Crazy Jamie would love it
VashTheStampede
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He's not the only one
VashTheStampede
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Votes to lynch (7 required):
Local Hero - 3 (Cole, Abstain, shortkut)
Abstain - 1 (VashTheStampede)
shortkut - 1 (Local Hero)
No vote - 9 (Benzine, canadaguy, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Raposa, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23)
Votes to skip (13 required):
No vote - 14 (Abstain, Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, shortkut, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)
Local Hero - 3 (Cole, Abstain, shortkut)
Abstain - 1 (VashTheStampede)
shortkut - 1 (Local Hero)
No vote - 9 (Benzine, canadaguy, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Raposa, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23)
Votes to skip (13 required):
No vote - 14 (Abstain, Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, shortkut, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)
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Okay, so we're already down 2 townies and can't bring any back to life, and can't get the knowledge on who is a wolf from the Red Lady.
Depending on who Kat is and if she got the death potion, we might be down a third at the end of the day. That could leave us with 7 townies.
6 non-townies are afoot. 4 specifically wolves.
Turns out the random number generators give wolves better odds.
Depending on who Kat is and if she got the death potion, we might be down a third at the end of the day. That could leave us with 7 townies.
6 non-townies are afoot. 4 specifically wolves.
Turns out the random number generators give wolves better odds.
@Local Hero I'm worried about you my friend. Is everything ok? Not feeling a little wolfish?
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Do you have any suspicions or are we all just waiting for an expository post from @Cole ?
I miss the days when he an I would argue about the value of a day 1 kill. It takes all the fun out of voting for Local Gyro
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I am innocent. I hope you think back on all of your experiences with me and know that I don't ever lie. I'm trying to say this sincerely and not sarcastically.
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Are you sure you don't lie? Was this post itself a lie?
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Votes to lynch (7 required):
Local Hero - 3 (Cole, A wolf, shortkut)
A wolf - 2 (VashTheStampede, Raposa)
shortkut - 1 (Local Hero)
No vote - 8 (Benzine, canadaguy, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23)
Votes to skip (13 required):
No vote - 14 (A wolf, Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, shortkut, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)
Local Hero - 3 (Cole, A wolf, shortkut)
A wolf - 2 (VashTheStampede, Raposa)
shortkut - 1 (Local Hero)
No vote - 8 (Benzine, canadaguy, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23)
Votes to skip (13 required):
No vote - 14 (A wolf, Benzine, canadaguy, Cole, Fire Queen, Fool's Requiem, Kat, Local Hero, Raposa, shortkut, Smacktard, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)
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We're completely ignoring him this game as a strategy.
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Tsk tsk not waiting on the stealth edits and your post looks dumb!My vote should still be on Shortkut ()
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Probably sleeping like every game
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EFFORT POST INCOMING Ladies and gentlewolves, I would like to draw your attention to this post:
Here is Cole implying that he has the ability to kill at night, so I crunched some numbers. Now, the caveat is that I grew up crunching more of the Cap'n's sugary goodness at the breakfast table than I did numbers in math class, so my calculations may be a little, uh, whack. Feel free to correct my math if I forgot to carry an exponent or something. Anyway, I digress.
Village Team
Everyone playing the game has a 4/7 (8/14) chance of being on the village team, so we'll assume the same for Cole.
The only village roles that can kill during the night are:
Marksman
Witch
**Jailer
...which are not among the guaranteed village roles. That means OF the 8 original village team members still standing, there is a 2/8 chance that Cole would be chosen for a RANDOM village role.
Of that 2/8 chance, only **THREE roles of the total **SEVENTEEN randomized roles would be able to kill during the night. So the chances of Cole being a member of the village team that can kill are... 4/7 * 2/8 * 2/17 = 16/952 = 2/119
Solo Killer Team
HOWEVER, there is also a 1/16 chance of Cole being on the random killer solo team. Of the 6 roles listed, only THREE are able to kill *during the night*:
Serial killer
Corruptor
Arsonist
So 1/16 * 3/6 = 1/32 chance he's a solo killer, of the above three roles.
Wolf Team
There's also the chance, of course, that Cole is a wolf. Although no wolves can kill independently of the pack (I think?), he could be indicating that he's running the show behind the scenes, if he is.
1/4 (4/16) chance of being a member of the wolf pack.
Bluffing Team
Of course, there is always the chance that he is just bluffing.
If we add up the previous numbers, this indicates there's likely a (roughly) 23/32 chance that he's just bluffing.
Conclusion
So what does that tell you? Fuck if I know. I'm just the numbers guy. I've never played Wolf with Cole before, so I don't know much about how he plays. In truth, we need a Cole psychiatrist. Unfortunately, the only Cole psychiatrist I know has recently taken a sabbatical. Any other
*I just learned this word right now.
Last edited:
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It’s time for 5 pages of posts regarding odds, @Cole
Ladies and gentlewolves, I would like to draw your attention to this post:
Here is Cole implying that he has the ability to kill at night, so I crunched some numbers. Now, the caveat is that I grew up crunching more of the Cap'n's sugary goodness at the breakfast table than I did numbers in math class, so my calculations may be a little, uh, whack. Feel free to correct my math if I forgot to carry an exponent or something. Anyway, I digress.
Village Team
Everyone playing the game has a 1/9 chance of being on the village team, so we'll assume the same for Cole.
The only village roles that can kill during the night are:
Marksman
Witch
...which are not among the guaranteed village roles. That means OF the 9 original village team members still standing, there is a 3/9 chance that Cole would be chosen for a RANDOM village role.
Of that 1/3 chance, only TWO roles of the total SEVENTEEN would be able to kill during the night. So the chances of Cole being a member of the village team that can kill are... 1/9 * 3/9 * 2/17 = 2/459
Solo Killer Team
HOWEVER, there is also a 1/16 chance of Cole being on the random killer solo team. Of the 6 roles listed, only THREE are able to kill *during the night*:
Serial killer
Corruptor
Arsonist
So 1/16 * 3/6 = 1/32 chance he's a solo killer, of the above three roles.
Wolf Team
There's also the chance, of course, that Cole is a wolf. Although no wolves can kill independently of the pack (I think?), he could be indicating that he's running the show behind the scenes, if he is.
1/4 (4/16) chance of being a member of the wolf pack.
Bluffing Team
Of course, there is always the chance that he is just bluffing.
If we add up the previous numbers, this indicates there's likely a (roughly) 23/32 chance that he's just bluffing.
Conclusion
So what does that tell you? Fuck if I know. I'm just the numbers guy. I've never played Wolf with Cole before, so I don't know much about how he plays. In truth, we need a Cole psychiatrist. Unfortunately, the only Cole psychiatrist I know has recently taken a sabbatical. Any otherFraudsFreuds willing to step up chaise longue*-shaped plate?
*I just learned this word right now.
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Holy cow
Ladies and gentlewolves, I would like to draw your attention to this post:
Here is Cole implying that he has the ability to kill at night, so I crunched some numbers. Now, the caveat is that I grew up crunching more of the Cap'n's sugary goodness at the breakfast table than I did numbers in math class, so my calculations may be a little, uh, whack. Feel free to correct my math if I forgot to carry an exponent or something. Anyway, I digress.
Village Team
Everyone playing the game has a 1/9 chance of being on the village team, so we'll assume the same for Cole.
The only village roles that can kill during the night are:
Marksman
Witch
...which are not among the guaranteed village roles. That means OF the 9 original village team members still standing, there is a 3/9 chance that Cole would be chosen for a RANDOM village role.
Of that 1/3 chance, only TWO roles of the total SEVENTEEN would be able to kill during the night. So the chances of Cole being a member of the village team that can kill are... 1/9 * 3/9 * 2/17 = 2/459
Solo Killer Team
HOWEVER, there is also a 1/16 chance of Cole being on the random killer solo team. Of the 6 roles listed, only THREE are able to kill *during the night*:
Serial killer
Corruptor
Arsonist
So 1/16 * 3/6 = 1/32 chance he's a solo killer, of the above three roles.
Wolf Team
There's also the chance, of course, that Cole is a wolf. Although no wolves can kill independently of the pack (I think?), he could be indicating that he's running the show behind the scenes, if he is.
1/4 (4/16) chance of being a member of the wolf pack.
Bluffing Team
Of course, there is always the chance that he is just bluffing.
If we add up the previous numbers, this indicates there's likely a (roughly) 23/32 chance that he's just bluffing.
Conclusion
So what does that tell you? Fuck if I know. I'm just the numbers guy. I've never played Wolf with Cole before, so I don't know much about how he plays. In truth, we need a Cole psychiatrist. Unfortunately, the only Cole psychiatrist I know has recently taken a sabbatical. Any otherFraudsFreuds willing to step up chaise longue*-shaped plate?
*I just learned this word right now.
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……I hate you so, so much.
Ladies and gentlewolves, I would like to draw your attention to this post:
Here is Cole implying that he has the ability to kill at night, so I crunched some numbers. Now, the caveat is that I grew up crunching more of the Cap'n's sugary goodness at the breakfast table than I did numbers in math class, so my calculations may be a little, uh, whack. Feel free to correct my math if I forgot to carry an exponent or something. Anyway, I digress.
Village Team
Everyone playing the game has a 1/9 chance of being on the village team, so we'll assume the same for Cole.
The only village roles that can kill during the night are:
Marksman
Witch
...which are not among the guaranteed village roles. That means OF the 9 original village team members still standing, there is a 3/9 chance that Cole would be chosen for a RANDOM village role.
Of that 1/3 chance, only TWO roles of the total SEVENTEEN would be able to kill during the night. So the chances of Cole being a member of the village team that can kill are... 1/9 * 3/9 * 2/17 = 2/459
Solo Killer Team
HOWEVER, there is also a 1/16 chance of Cole being on the random killer solo team. Of the 6 roles listed, only THREE are able to kill *during the night*:
Serial killer
Corruptor
Arsonist
So 1/16 * 3/6 = 1/32 chance he's a solo killer, of the above three roles.
Wolf Team
There's also the chance, of course, that Cole is a wolf. Although no wolves can kill independently of the pack (I think?), he could be indicating that he's running the show behind the scenes, if he is.
1/4 (4/16) chance of being a member of the wolf pack.
Bluffing Team
Of course, there is always the chance that he is just bluffing.
If we add up the previous numbers, this indicates there's likely a (roughly) 23/32 chance that he's just bluffing.
Conclusion
So what does that tell you? Fuck if I know. I'm just the numbers guy. I've never played Wolf with Cole before, so I don't know much about how he plays. In truth, we need a Cole psychiatrist. Unfortunately, the only Cole psychiatrist I know has recently taken a sabbatical. Any otherFraudsFreuds willing to step up chaise longue*-shaped plate?
*I just learned this word right now.
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