VashTheStampede
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So who ARE you voting for?
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FQ Wolf GWF Wolf Vol. 1 Discussion Thread: WOLVES WIN
- Thread starter Fire Queen
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VashTheStampede
Sorry Jawneh
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The topic of conversation most of the game has been our complete lack of information to go on. And now even with people being forced to make a decision and lay some cards on the table, we get more random votes and votes with no attempt at reasoning.
Thats not me. For better or worse (CLEARLY WORSE SO FAR) I've been open with my thought process. Probably because I suck at this game but I'm an honest person and I figure as a civilian I should just continue to be me.
I'm voting shortkut. Again. Cause I haven't had much of a reason to suspect Warp as of yet, and my thoughts on kut have already been posted a couple of times now.
Sorry to put everyone through this extra rigamarole, cause if i hadnt changed my vote, he would have already been decapitated.
Thats not me. For better or worse (CLEARLY WORSE SO FAR) I've been open with my thought process. Probably because I suck at this game but I'm an honest person and I figure as a civilian I should just continue to be me.
I'm voting shortkut. Again. Cause I haven't had much of a reason to suspect Warp as of yet, and my thoughts on kut have already been posted a couple of times now.
Sorry to put everyone through this extra rigamarole, cause if i hadnt changed my vote, he would have already been decapitated.
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I don’t understand anything you just typed
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VashTheStampede
Sorry Jawneh
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Oh truly hard seltzer
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in theory though, anyone that votes for either of them in run offs have a perfectly valid excuse whether wolf or not.
"I didn't even suspect shortkut OR warp but I had to vote for someone!"
like yes, there will be threads to follow, but this runoff won't tell us much.
Definitely works as an excuse today. If we find a wolf between the two, we can start making guesses whether or not the other wolves decided to risk a (technically) day 1 wolf death for the long game, or try to force a vote for the other to keep the numbers up. But that's a ball game for later days.
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@Zell 17 @Raposa if you two agree on who to kill, then the decision is made. If you can’t agree, then @Fire Queen flips a coin
please for the love God communicate and see if either of you can agree on even the faintest of suspicions either way. if you're even close to 50/50 in your head, talk it out and decide together.
leaving this up to a coin toss would be insanity and we'd get EVEN LESS information moving forward.
decide together. otherwise day 3 gonna look like 1.5 part 2.
leaving this up to a coin toss would be insanity and we'd get EVEN LESS information moving forward.
decide together. otherwise day 3 gonna look like 1.5 part 2.
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Yeah, coin toss is functionally catastrophic. If you're not a wolf, vote with the other person. Make a damn choice, even if it's a bad one. Last person to vote gets lynched tomorrow!
About to head to bed, but, let me help you decide.
1) I would have absolutely abstained from killing Night 1 as a wolf. Both shortkut and I were forward-facing insofar that someone needed to die Day 1. By not killing Night 1 it gives some plausible deniability and is just a Grade-A Dick Move™.
2) Wolves, or at least me-as-a-wolf, aren't necessarily shy about preemptively killing off one another. I have, and will, do so as a regular deterrent. If you kill shortkut and it turns out that he's a wolf, that doesn't necessarily mean that I'm not. The same is true in reverse, minus the obvious distinction that shortkut voted for Ants yesterday.
3) If you kill me off: That's not how trans-ing works, numbnuts! Just to get that joke out of the way.
About to head to bed, but, let me help you decide.
1) I would have absolutely abstained from killing Night 1 as a wolf. Both shortkut and I were forward-facing insofar that someone needed to die Day 1. By not killing Night 1 it gives some plausible deniability and is just a Grade-A Dick Move™.
2) Wolves, or at least me-as-a-wolf, aren't necessarily shy about preemptively killing off one another. I have, and will, do so as a regular deterrent. If you kill shortkut and it turns out that he's a wolf, that doesn't necessarily mean that I'm not. The same is true in reverse, minus the obvious distinction that shortkut voted for Ants yesterday.
3) If you kill me off: That's not how trans-ing works, numbnuts! Just to get that joke out of the way.
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tiebreaker vote results:
Warp: 4 (Fool's Requiem, Major Isoor, Zell 17, Warp)
shortkut: 2 (Holly, VashTheStampede)
With no human blood shed as of yet (not counting the Mayor's poor sacrifice), the townspeople wanted nothing more than to strike a blow to the wolves before the wolves could kill another one of their own. shortkut, the reputable glovemaker of Gold Whiskers, had narrowly escaped a dire fate on the first day. For the second day in a row, however, he had to watch as some of his peers wanted him to pay for the crimes of the wolves. Also being blamed for wolf crimes was the milliner of Gold Whiskers, Warp. Were the services they provided, protecting the hats and hands of the citizens, not enough?
In the end, there was a tie. And the executioner wasn't getting paid enough to lop off two heads in one go. (They weren't getting paid at all, to be fair.) So a tiebreaker vote was called. When the first two people voted for shortkut, it seemed like Gold Whiskers would have to endure the upcoming winter with bare hands. Instead, with a swing of voting momentum, it was the hatmaker whose number was called.
To her credit, she did not fight. She accepted her fate, and as she stepped up to the executioner's platform, people still jeered and lobbed lupine accusations at her. Silently she took her place on the podium. Silently she took her place in the stocks. Silently the executioner raised her axe and dropped it. A revolver loaded with silver bullets was at the ready in case a transformation happened, but no gunshots would be fired on this day. Warp was just a townie.
END OF DAY PHASE 2, BEGINNING OF NIGHT PHASE 2
this night phase will last until the wolves choose their next victim
Warp: 4 (Fool's Requiem, Major Isoor, Zell 17, Warp)
shortkut: 2 (Holly, VashTheStampede)
With no human blood shed as of yet (not counting the Mayor's poor sacrifice), the townspeople wanted nothing more than to strike a blow to the wolves before the wolves could kill another one of their own. shortkut, the reputable glovemaker of Gold Whiskers, had narrowly escaped a dire fate on the first day. For the second day in a row, however, he had to watch as some of his peers wanted him to pay for the crimes of the wolves. Also being blamed for wolf crimes was the milliner of Gold Whiskers, Warp. Were the services they provided, protecting the hats and hands of the citizens, not enough?
In the end, there was a tie. And the executioner wasn't getting paid enough to lop off two heads in one go. (They weren't getting paid at all, to be fair.) So a tiebreaker vote was called. When the first two people voted for shortkut, it seemed like Gold Whiskers would have to endure the upcoming winter with bare hands. Instead, with a swing of voting momentum, it was the hatmaker whose number was called.
To her credit, she did not fight. She accepted her fate, and as she stepped up to the executioner's platform, people still jeered and lobbed lupine accusations at her. Silently she took her place on the podium. Silently she took her place in the stocks. Silently the executioner raised her axe and dropped it. A revolver loaded with silver bullets was at the ready in case a transformation happened, but no gunshots would be fired on this day. Warp was just a townie.
END OF DAY PHASE 2, BEGINNING OF NIGHT PHASE 2
this night phase will last until the wolves choose their next victim
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It was a quiet night. Too quiet. For a fleeting moment, the people of Gold Whiskers thought they had evaded further bloodshed. However, when the morning headcount came up one person short, their worst fears were realized.
The bowyer of Gold Whiskers, VashTheStampede, was missing. The hunter (or at least the person providing supplies to the hunter) had, of course, become the hunted. It looked like there was a struggle—arrows dotted the walls of his abode in haphazard fashion, and there were blood splatters everywhere. No body could be found, but it was clear what had happened. All that remained of him was his old trusty bow, Ol’ Trusty.
The bowstring had snapped.
The bowyer of Gold Whiskers, VashTheStampede, was missing. The hunter (or at least the person providing supplies to the hunter) had, of course, become the hunted. It looked like there was a struggle—arrows dotted the walls of his abode in haphazard fashion, and there were blood splatters everywhere. No body could be found, but it was clear what had happened. All that remained of him was his old trusty bow, Ol’ Trusty.
The bowstring had snapped.
START OF DAY PHASE 3
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Still processing what a wolf kill on vash means, but I will point out that all three of the suspects I initially had after the last no-kill night phase (coleman, shortkut, and zell) voted for warp.
Shortkut’s vote has plausible deniability as a self preservation vote, but of the three Zell is most suspicious, because his was cast during the runoff.
Shortkut’s vote has plausible deniability as a self preservation vote, but of the three Zell is most suspicious, because his was cast during the runoff.
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Are you victim-blaming the poor folk of Gold Whiskers?
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so let me get this straight...
Vash starts what *HE* considers a bandwagon, but in reality, was a reasoned vote for shortkut.
several people also vote for shortkut.
towards the end of the day, shortkut says he will change his vote for self preservation at the final hour. but the votes were 5-3, and shortkuts vote wouldn't matter unless someone changed it.
Vash then decides he feels bad about the band wagon (and is worried about it looking suspicious if shortkut dies), and instead changes his vote, giving shortkut the opportunity to be saved by a 50/50 runoff.
that happens.
shortkut DOES get saved, Warp does and is a civilian. looks awful for Vash.
but then in the final moments, in the runoff, Vash decides to vote for shortkut.
Vash looked really bad last night, and I know I was already planning to come at him with heavy suspicion in my words. but instead Vash is a townie who, as he admitted, made a mistake in changing his vote the first time, as he realized immediately how bad it made him look.
but the point is, today Vash I think would've been a free lynch for the wolves. he was our first real person that *looked* guilty even if he wasnt, so the wolves could've very easily moved to have Vash lynched today, and just taken whoever out last night. but they didn't... they almost waste the night kill by killing Vash.
why? whats the play here?
could shortkut be worried about Vash accusing him repeatedly and ending up on a final vote for him, it was Vash that "started" the bandwagon on shortkut in the first place.
but is shortkut foolish enough to do a simple retaliatory kill?
or maybe we know he's not foolish enough to do that, so he did it anyway, to make it look like he didn't?
this is not a smart move... Vash was a free kill today with plausible deniablity. even if you're a wolf and tore into Vash and he was lynched, revealed as civi, it would be easy for you to say as a wolf "yeah, I was wrong, but he did look very guilty, you guys know that". Vash would have died today...
so again, why?
prevailing theory for me would be that its a player that isnt very experienced, (which is somewhat contrary to the no-kill from night 1...), and decided Vash had drawn enough attention to himself to be taken out, without realizing they could've used that attention in the day phase and gotten an "extra" kill tonight.
I don't know if shortkut would retaliation kill Vash, especially not the next night... could he as a swerve? absolutely. but did he? I'm not convinced...
this is feels like playing poker against guys that just call every hand. it's so hard to make educated moves.
Vash starts what *HE* considers a bandwagon, but in reality, was a reasoned vote for shortkut.
several people also vote for shortkut.
towards the end of the day, shortkut says he will change his vote for self preservation at the final hour. but the votes were 5-3, and shortkuts vote wouldn't matter unless someone changed it.
Vash then decides he feels bad about the band wagon (and is worried about it looking suspicious if shortkut dies), and instead changes his vote, giving shortkut the opportunity to be saved by a 50/50 runoff.
that happens.
shortkut DOES get saved, Warp does and is a civilian. looks awful for Vash.
but then in the final moments, in the runoff, Vash decides to vote for shortkut.
Vash looked really bad last night, and I know I was already planning to come at him with heavy suspicion in my words. but instead Vash is a townie who, as he admitted, made a mistake in changing his vote the first time, as he realized immediately how bad it made him look.
but the point is, today Vash I think would've been a free lynch for the wolves. he was our first real person that *looked* guilty even if he wasnt, so the wolves could've very easily moved to have Vash lynched today, and just taken whoever out last night. but they didn't... they almost waste the night kill by killing Vash.
why? whats the play here?
could shortkut be worried about Vash accusing him repeatedly and ending up on a final vote for him, it was Vash that "started" the bandwagon on shortkut in the first place.
but is shortkut foolish enough to do a simple retaliatory kill?
or maybe we know he's not foolish enough to do that, so he did it anyway, to make it look like he didn't?
this is not a smart move... Vash was a free kill today with plausible deniablity. even if you're a wolf and tore into Vash and he was lynched, revealed as civi, it would be easy for you to say as a wolf "yeah, I was wrong, but he did look very guilty, you guys know that". Vash would have died today...
so again, why?
prevailing theory for me would be that its a player that isnt very experienced, (which is somewhat contrary to the no-kill from night 1...), and decided Vash had drawn enough attention to himself to be taken out, without realizing they could've used that attention in the day phase and gotten an "extra" kill tonight.
I don't know if shortkut would retaliation kill Vash, especially not the next night... could he as a swerve? absolutely. but did he? I'm not convinced...
this is feels like playing poker against guys that just call every hand. it's so hard to make educated moves.
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I don't think it's even a retaliatory kill. Vash basically saved kut by changing his vote. shortkut should be dead, but Vash changing his vote because he didn't like that everyone dogpiled on his vote allowed shortkut to live. Why would shortkut have Vash killed? Seems like a bad move.
It's too contradictory. I can't see wolves choosing to play pacifists after all the day one bickering to do a noobie move like randomly killing Vash when it was obvious that Vash's actions painted him a negative light. There has to be purpose behind this. What the purpose was, IDK, but this couldn't have been the move of inexperienced players, IMO.
I could be wrong. Both actions could be done by a group of people who are just fucking with us for their own entertainment.
Wolves seem to be playing this game as chaotic neutral
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Exactly why I have 2 of my other suspicions unannounced at this time
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Who playing isn’t an experienced GW wolf player? We don’t have anyone inexperienced here and it’s interesting that you and Cole keep suggesting that narrative
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he also turned back around and put his vote back on shortkut. Vash is a confirmed civi, (it's in the first post), which means whatever Vashs mistakes were, he still started a bandwagon for kut and then voted for him in the runoff.
they really do.
okay, this is a fair point and I'd like to clarify.
there are names here that I don't recognize as having ever played with. maybe I did and forgot, maybe they played ones I wasn't in, maybe they played off GW. I said "inexperienced", and I meant "new to me"
this is a fair correction by @shortkut
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TBH, I kind forgot about this fact because of his actions in the second day. Dammit, Vash.
once I get home, I'm gonna do a big writeup analyzing everyone to this juncture. I'm mostly gonna do it for myself, as I need some direction and writing it down helps me organize thoughts and come to new realizations.
I will post it for those that are curious, obviously you'll take it with a grain of salt which is understandable.
but maybe it'll at least get the ball rolling in a direction we can root some one out
I will post it for those that are curious, obviously you'll take it with a grain of salt which is understandable.
but maybe it'll at least get the ball rolling in a direction we can root some one out
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OKAY here we go.
Prime Suspects At The Moment:
shortkut: everything so far in this game has pointed at shortkut being a wolf. the problem comes in when it also very clearly looks like a frame job too. but on the THIRD hand, I think shortkut is good enough at this game to "frame himself". this sounds... bad almost (in before accusations), but at this point it almost doesn't matter if shortkut is a wolf or NOT, he finds himself in a spot where he looks very guilty, so it's hard not to include him at or near the top of th is list.
Jawneh: I know Jawnehs a decent player, and hes actually sided with me on a few points in this thread. some may find me including him on this list as a sort of "throw off suspicion" and that's fine, the whole point is that you should take everything everyone does in this game with a grain of salt, but as I said, this is me sorting out my own brain, and you can take it however you want. Jawneh has taken the role this game of "voice of reason" and there are few things more suspicious than that to me. It's a way to remain active in the thread, but without overtly drawing attention to himself. it hasn't entirely worked I don't believe, as others have also picked up on his "tweener" type behavior and have started to find him suspicious, most prominently... recently deceased civilian Warp. ...I hadn't been looking at him much *BECAUSE* he was agreeing me, but maybe that was short sighted... hm
Ants!: I said in the thread kind of "out of character", it was hard to use activity metrics against people in this game because everyones an adult with a life now. I myself have disappeared midway through several days for one reason or another. but I find his activity interesting, its almost as if hes coming into the thread already having made a decision on who to lynch, as if he had a decided plan on what he wanted to do for the day. but if you read back through, a LOT of his posts have been very straight to the point, almost hopping on anyone elses theories.
Mid Level Suspects At The Moment: (these players are always threats, and will always stay on my radar
Zell 17: again, I *literally* know Zell is busy, he was with me a couple of days ago, and has a busy schedule for the next few days, but I know the type of player Zell is at this game, and I feel like he should have had a bigger impact thus far. This position for him on the list is mostly out of knowing how good he is at the game, not necessarily something *specific* he did in this game as of yet.
canadaguy: I'm not sure canadaguy could have done this exact same scenario that we're seeing. but so far he's mostly found himself trying to make sense of the chaos of the game, and his reactions have seemed genuine.
The Rest:
Most of the rest of the players haven't necessarily done anything to tell me either they might be guilty OR they might be innocent. they could just be playing it cool and laid back as wolves do sometimes, or they could be busy, or they could be as twisted by this game as the rest of us. But as of right now, I can't put any of them on any level of suspect list.
I am leaning towards my top three right now. I haven't narrowed it down yet, shortkut is someone I would want in the game as long as possible if he was a civilian, and it makes me nervous to vote for him when I'm not fully positive.
Jawneh and Ants are kind of on the same level of suspicion for me, we know Warp was a civilian, and Jawneh was heavily at odds with him. Ants I don't have as much to lean into as I might with Jawneh, but there's just something nagging about his type of play that feels like he has a specific gameplan.
...I feel like I'm leaning towards Jawneh, but this game is still so wild, I don't even feel entirely confident in that.
will continue to analyze and revisit.
Prime Suspects At The Moment:
shortkut: everything so far in this game has pointed at shortkut being a wolf. the problem comes in when it also very clearly looks like a frame job too. but on the THIRD hand, I think shortkut is good enough at this game to "frame himself". this sounds... bad almost (in before accusations), but at this point it almost doesn't matter if shortkut is a wolf or NOT, he finds himself in a spot where he looks very guilty, so it's hard not to include him at or near the top of th is list.
Jawneh: I know Jawnehs a decent player, and hes actually sided with me on a few points in this thread. some may find me including him on this list as a sort of "throw off suspicion" and that's fine, the whole point is that you should take everything everyone does in this game with a grain of salt, but as I said, this is me sorting out my own brain, and you can take it however you want. Jawneh has taken the role this game of "voice of reason" and there are few things more suspicious than that to me. It's a way to remain active in the thread, but without overtly drawing attention to himself. it hasn't entirely worked I don't believe, as others have also picked up on his "tweener" type behavior and have started to find him suspicious, most prominently... recently deceased civilian Warp. ...I hadn't been looking at him much *BECAUSE* he was agreeing me, but maybe that was short sighted... hm
Ants!: I said in the thread kind of "out of character", it was hard to use activity metrics against people in this game because everyones an adult with a life now. I myself have disappeared midway through several days for one reason or another. but I find his activity interesting, its almost as if hes coming into the thread already having made a decision on who to lynch, as if he had a decided plan on what he wanted to do for the day. but if you read back through, a LOT of his posts have been very straight to the point, almost hopping on anyone elses theories.
Mid Level Suspects At The Moment: (these players are always threats, and will always stay on my radar
Zell 17: again, I *literally* know Zell is busy, he was with me a couple of days ago, and has a busy schedule for the next few days, but I know the type of player Zell is at this game, and I feel like he should have had a bigger impact thus far. This position for him on the list is mostly out of knowing how good he is at the game, not necessarily something *specific* he did in this game as of yet.
canadaguy: I'm not sure canadaguy could have done this exact same scenario that we're seeing. but so far he's mostly found himself trying to make sense of the chaos of the game, and his reactions have seemed genuine.
The Rest:
Most of the rest of the players haven't necessarily done anything to tell me either they might be guilty OR they might be innocent. they could just be playing it cool and laid back as wolves do sometimes, or they could be busy, or they could be as twisted by this game as the rest of us. But as of right now, I can't put any of them on any level of suspect list.
I am leaning towards my top three right now. I haven't narrowed it down yet, shortkut is someone I would want in the game as long as possible if he was a civilian, and it makes me nervous to vote for him when I'm not fully positive.
Jawneh and Ants are kind of on the same level of suspicion for me, we know Warp was a civilian, and Jawneh was heavily at odds with him. Ants I don't have as much to lean into as I might with Jawneh, but there's just something nagging about his type of play that feels like he has a specific gameplan.
...I feel like I'm leaning towards Jawneh, but this game is still so wild, I don't even feel entirely confident in that.
will continue to analyze and revisit.
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Aww.
Actually to be perfectly transparent, I had only ever played wolf on GW except maybe one or two other times in another forum. So overall I don't think I've even played 10 full games. Does that mean anything today? Probably not, as at worst I can read some theory or watch a video on how to play wolf, but I wanted to at least drop that fact so that any past impressions might not necessarily be accurate about me.
Hah, I missed the edit. In highsight, maybe I should've changed my vote. Don't know if it would've changed the wolf/townie ratio, but at least Warp didn't cuss me off.
