Zell Wolf Discussion Thread v3

[Killface!]

I think I even told Zell that if my play last game worked I'd be perma-dead every game for like a month.

Time to create a new account. Or play through the game as someone else's account.

Now THAT would be a twist.

 

[Cole]

Time to create a new account. Or play through the game as someone else's account.

Now THAT would be a twist.

Theyd know it was me immediately. And the problem is, the reason I'm such a threat is because people trust "the brand". If I was "someone else" they'd have no reason to trust me.

 

[Zell 17]

I'm probably the last person to offer advice on how to run these games. However, this does prevent players from targeting a specific player and there is still plenty of information gathered to discuss.

Watch, all you children will pick 7 or something. And it will be Cole.

 

[Killface!]

Watch, all you children will pick 7 or something. And it will be Cole.

Is this the part where I ask about odds and then we have a 5 page discussion on it?

 

[Zell 17]

Is this the part where I ask about odds and then we have a 5 page discussion on it?

From what I've seen so far, the odds are the town gets some unfathomable luck of the draw

 

[Tubby23]

Ive always been of the opinion night 0 is stupid anyway.

And especially with roles in this game that can stack kills, and important roles that can only begin during the day, I think it's extra silly.

But it is what it is. Regardless of how this game turns out, I want to take a break from the next one, not only is the heat on me too high, but its also taking too much of my attention right now.

But now it'll look all salty if I don't play the next one. But I'm not salty, I think I even told Zell that if my play last game worked I'd be perma-dead every game for like a month.

I certainly think starting on a Day 1 with everyone having no info and having to start their investigations after having had a day phase of conversation may even up the playing field in regard to the targetting.

I know we all want to win but when it comes to keeping the game fun for people, getting to at least participate in one day of shit talk and figuring shit out may be better than being dead Night 0

 

[shortkut]

I think next time start with Day phase and/or fewer seer type roles or a limit to how many times it can be used.

The town can have half the group with some type of detection ability and the wolves can kill at random and hit a role, or use the wolf seer and decide if that is a target they want or they can aim for the field and know the target they want is out there.

Maybe move the wolf seer to occur after the wolf kill?

 

[Zell 17]

I certainly think starting on a Day 1 with everyone having no info and having to start their investigations after having had a day phase of conversation may even up the playing field in regard to the targetting.

I know we all want to win but when it comes to keeping the game fun for people, getting to at least participate in one day of shit talk and figuring shit out may be better than being dead Night 0

I think it benefits the town. Big time roles like gunner and medium can just claim and ask for protection and the wolves lose their "free" shot at an attempt to kill them. Not to mention that the game would start with 10 good vs 6 evil instead of 9 good vs 6 evil.

 

[Zell 17]

Maybe move the wolf seer to occur after the wolf kill?

Isn't it better for the wolves to be able to see who they attack?

I think a critical error that the evils have made in all three games is killing seer roles night 1. I'd rank the "power" of town roles like this:

Medium w/ revive

*medium is so powerful that this gap needs to be here*

Gunner w/ 2 bullets
Jailer/Warden with bullet
Witch with both potions
Gunner w/ 1 bullet
Marksman
Tough Guy
Aura Seer
Detective
Spirit Seer
Avenger
Priest
Red Lady
Beast Hunter (This low only because it's unprovable)
Bodyguard
Jailer w/o bullet

Doctor
Loudmouth



Sheriff
Flower Child
Medium after revive
Gunner/Marksman/Witch without powers
Villager

So if I found an Aura Seer night 1, I might risk going elsewhere thinking there's a 50-50 chance of killing someone better. If I find a doc night 1, I'm 100% going random because nearly every other village role is better. And KNOWING who the seer is but not killing them is such a huge advantage. Say I check shortkut night 1. I see he's SS. Now I can fake SS and call him and another villager evil before shortkut even gets a chance to make a claim. Now when he claims SS he looks super suspicious.

 

[Zell 17]

Oh and if I'm a wolf I'm having my "weakest wolf" do all the seer faking. The worse they are thought of as a player, the more likely the village will buy what they are selling.

 

[Cole]

Watch, all you children will pick 7 or something. And it will be Cole.

100%

I certainly think starting on a Day 1 with everyone having no info and having to start their investigations after having had a day phase of conversation may even up the playing field in regard to the targetting.

I know we all want to win but when it comes to keeping the game fun for people, getting to at least participate in one day of shit talk and figuring shit out may be better than being dead Night 0

Day 1 would start the game a lot better

 

[Zell 17]

100%

Day 1 would start the game a lot better

Do we need to make the game even harder for the evils though?

 

[shortkut]

Do we need to make the game even harder for the evils though?

Remove half the town roles for powerless townies

 

[Cole]

Medium w/ revive

*medium is so powerful that this gap needs to be here*

Gunner w/ 2 bullets
Jailer/Warden with bullet
Witch with both potions
Gunner w/ 1 bullet
Marksman
Tough Guy
Aura Seer
Detective
Spirit Seer
Avenger
Priest
Red Lady
Beast Hunter (This low only because it's unprovable)
Bodyguard
Jailer w/o bullet

Doctor
Loudmouth



Sheriff
Flower Child
Medium after revive
Gunner/Marksman/Witch without powers
Villager

again though, you are basing this off of *random selection* in your wolf games. Over the course of hundreds or thousands of games, yes, it's probably going to even out to some kind of distribution. But in these games, it's not going to be nearly as accurate. How likely is it that another gunner gets both solo teams with both bullets, clean as that? Probably not going to happen again for a while. Especially when you factor in that *I* got partly lucky when I did it. I knew Ryan was bad, I didn't know he was the fool.

Conversely, considering information roles "low" might work in your apps variant, but in this, where people know who's reputations you can trust or how you can read in to what they're saying changes that DRAMATICALLY. It's not typically hard to figure out whos lying and who isnt.

I think for a game like this, a game where people know each other and how to play with them, information roles are some of the most valuable. You're valuing roles with "proof" a lot higher, which is fine. But they can easily prove it by killing the wrong person, as evidenced by a couple of priests that we know.

 

[Zell 17]

Remove half the town roles for powerless townies

Give me priests or give me death!

again though, you are basing this off of *random selection* in your wolf games. Over the course of hundreds or thousands of games, yes, it's probably going to even out to some kind of distribution. But in these games, it's not going to be nearly as accurate. How likely is it that another gunner gets both solo teams with both bullets, clean as that? Probably not going to happen again for a while. Especially when you factor in that *I* got partly lucky when I did it. I knew Ryan was bad, I didn't know he was the fool.

Conversely, considering information roles "low" might work in your apps variant, but in this, where people know who's reputations you can trust or how you can read in to what they're saying changes that DRAMATICALLY. It's not typically hard to figure out whos lying and who isnt.

I think for a game like this, a game where people know each other and how to play with them, information roles are some of the most valuable. You're valuing roles with "proof" a lot higher, which is fine. But they can easily prove it by killing the wrong person, as evidenced by a couple of priests that we know.

I don’t play with randoms on the app either, we definitely all know each other.

 

[Cole]

Do we need to make the game even harder for the evils though?

This doesn't make the game harder for the evils. Just because we lose a kill that night? So what.

the fool is the single greatest ally to the wolves. it balances the entire game of information by itself.

Second, the wolf shaman. Give reason to suspect that reads are incorrect.

Last, make the spirit seer HAVE to check 2 people, like the detective.

That's 90% of your balance right there, and you don't have to touch the town other than making the changes you wanna make to which roles are in the game.

 

[shortkut]

How long are day/night phases on the app?

I think we can’t be compared to the app. I mentioned this last time, too many intangibles. This is baseball analytics, on paper it’s accurate but in practice fails most of the time

 

[Cole]

I don’t play with randoms on the app either, we definitely all know each other.

yes, but I'm betting theres some sort of matchmaking system there that has balanced you all to a similar skill level. That's not the case here.

 

[shortkut]

yes, but I'm betting theres some sort of matchmaking system there that has balanced you all to a similar skill level. That's not the case here.

I also doubt the app has 36 hour day phases

 

[Cole]

How long are day/night phases on the app?

I think we can’t be compared to the app. I mentioned this last time, too many intangibles. This is baseball analytics, on paper it’s accurate but in practice fails most of the time

I've said the same. Repeatedly. The app and whatever metrics you have from it are ENTIRELY irrelevant to this.

Unlike shortkut, I love baseball analytics.

But the better comparison he re, is you're using College Baseball Metrics to dictate how teams will perform in the major leagues.

They aren't the same world.

 

[shortkut]

I've said the same. Repeatedly. The app and whatever metrics you have from it are ENTIRELY irrelevant to this.

Unlike shortkut, I love baseball analytics.

But the better comparison he re, is you're using College Baseball Metrics to dictate how teams will perform in the major leagues.

They aren't the same world.

A lot of teams use analytics for the regular season that don’t apply to the postseason. That’s what I was getting at

 

[Zell 17]

I think the evils are starting to figure out the meta a bit. Let's see how the rest of this game goes. But let's look at some numbers.

Let's assume the wolves manage to kill someone each night and that the town manages to lynch an evil every day. These should be the bare minimum expectations of competency.

At the start of the game it's a 9 townies vs 6 non-town. If non town ever equals town the game is hopelessly lost. That means the evils need to force 3 "mistakes" from the town.

Not lynching anyone is a mistake, thats why evils almost won game 2 and would have if they berserked properly.

Forcing a mislynch is TWO mistakes. You lose a townie AND you lose an opportunity to lynch. If you mislynch on day 1 all of a sudden it's 7 townies vs 6 non-town and the balance is very precarious. That's why I've been trying to push the evils to do damage. They are too worried about getting found out in the end. You are expected to get found out. You need to force the village to make some mistakes on the way. Oh, and every single day the RK is alive and makes a kill you can take away one more "mistake" that the village is allowed before it's hopeless.

 

[Zell 17]

I think for a game like this, a game where people know each other and how to play with them, information roles are some of the most valuable. You're valuing roles with "proof" a lot higher, which is fine. But they can easily prove it by killing the wrong person, as evidenced by a couple of priests that we know.

Proven information roles are extremely valuable, I would agree. But let's see how the town handles it today when there's a bunch of info and they know much of it is BS. They didn't handle it very well yesterday, with many people admitting defeat and confusion.

 

[Zell 17]

I've said the same. Repeatedly. The app and whatever metrics you have from it are ENTIRELY irrelevant to this.

Unlike shortkut, I love baseball analytics.

But the better comparison he re, is you're using College Baseball Metrics to dictate how teams will perform in the major leagues.

They aren't the same world.

You are trying to figure out the best team in baseball after opening weekend. We can certainly tweak along the way. We definitely need to fix the targeting.

Game 1 was the very first game. Game 2 was one bad decision away from being an evils win. Let's see how this one ends.

 

[Cole]

Proven information roles are extremely valuable, I would agree. But let's see how the town handles it today when there's a bunch of info and they know much of it is BS. They didn't handle it very well yesterday, with many people admitting defeat and confusion.

Even unproven information roles are extremely valuable in this game. Look at what happened. I got lynched based on two people just saying "he's a wolf, get him". I still don't think you're factoring in the relationships between players in this.

You are trying to figure out the best team in baseball after opening weekend. We can certainly tweak along the way. We definitely need to fix the targeting.

Game 1 was the very first game. Game 2 was one bad decision away from being an evils win. Let's see how this one ends.

I don't think you can say that about game 2. Would it have been different if Ryan wasn't the fool? Of course. It also might've been different if it was a wolf, or the solo killer, or yes, a townie.

None of which you can say is an evils win.

We figured out the entire wolf roster on day 2 with just a smattering of information.

 

[Zell 17]

Even unproven information roles are extremely valuable in this game. Look at what happened. I got lynched based on two people just saying "he's a wolf, get him". I still don't think you're factoring in the relationships between players in this.

I don't think you can say that about game 2. Would it have been different if Ryan wasn't the fool? Of course. It also might've been different if it was a wolf, or the solo killer, or yes, a townie.

None of which you can say is an evils win.

We figured out the entire wolf roster on day 2 with just a smattering of information.

I'm not guessing about game 2. I mean, if they berserk on you, the game is mathematically over. There's nothing the town could have done to win even if they vote out the known bads every single day. As soon as they vote out Ants!, then town = wolves and it's game over.

 

[Killface!]

Guys, I feel like my powers are starting to fade away.

Are there any last minute message requests? Maybe pizza related?

 

[Cole]

yeah, tell my Wolfvengers I'll see them real soon.

 

[Killface!]

That sounds like a fun reunion and very scary all at the same time.

 

[Cole]

That sounds like a fun reunion and very scary all at the same time.

I mean you were our werewolf mascot remember? you're invited

 

[Cole]

I mean you were our werewolf mascot remember? you're invited

in fact, you should remind everyone thst you were a Wolfvenger

 

[Killface!]

in fact, you should remind everyone thst you were a Wolfvenger

Well shoot. Wolfvengers assemble!

 

[Zell 17]

@Ryan! is here. Killface is not.

 

[shortkut]

@Ryan! What was your role?

@Cole which werewolf were you?

 

[Ryan!]

I was telling the truth. I was an Aura Seer.

 

[Ryan!]

And the idiots killed me

 

[Ryan!]

Wait, if I was killed by the Witch, why was my role concealed? Why was Cole's? The Confusion does that? I thought it was only on the Wolf kill.

 

[Zell 17]

Wait, if I was killed by the Witch, why was my role concealed? Why was Cole's? The Confusion does that? I thought it was only on the Wolf kill.

Any kill during the night is masked

 

[shortkut]

Wait, if I was killed by the Witch, why was my role concealed? Why was Cole's? The Confusion does that? I thought it was only on the Wolf kill.

It’s all kills that night

 

[Ryan!]

Cole was Guardian WW

 

[Ryan!]

I laid out the plan, and they decided not to go with it. Morons. Deserve to lose at this point.

 

[shortkut]

Cole was Guardian WW

He doesn’t have to be. If I was a wolf and I saw I was getting lynched, I could say I would stop my lynching and have my wolf buddy do it for me

 

[Ryan!]

I'd understand being killed by wolves. It would have been a bad play, but with FR I was expecting it. But my own team.

Oh well.

Gonna start working on the rules for my Wolf game.

 

[Ryan!]

He doesn’t have to be. If I was a wolf and I saw I was getting lynched, I could say I would stop my lynching and have my wolf buddy do it for me

Cole sprinkles in truths in his statements. He was implying Flower Child, which had a bit of truth to it, I believe.

 

[Ryan!]

So Ritualist would have had to put a spell on me during that day for a rez, eh?

 

[Zell 17]

So Ritualist would have had to put a spell on me during that day for a rez, eh?

Yes, and I’ll notify any dead person who has been spelled to stick around. Tough luck.

 

[Ryan!]

I knew I should have checked Kat. She raised a ton of alarm bells. Wasted it on Ants. Might be the WW Fan or Sorcerer, but I'm not sure. He was quick to jump on the Cole defense train.

 

[Ryan!]

I wonder if they'll be smart enough to realize using a Confusion when I'm dying would vindicate what I said or not.

 

[Ryan!]

Lol FR is lying his ass off and these people are buying it. This is gold

 

[Tubby23]

Which is unbelievable