Zell Wolf Discussion Thread v2

[Zell 17]

I know it would have been good to take out the gunner, but Coleman listed me as very low on his suspicions list so I thought strategically it made sense not to this time.

I have legit no problem with the way you played at any stage. Solos needs some luck.

 

[Ants!]

If you had killed on night 0 I guarantee it would have been game over day one. TD would have seen I killed someone, would have called me incredibly suspicious, and gotten me lynched.

And honestly, I would have gone along with it because I didn’t want to get lynched. I would have hoped you were wolf, and used my kill the next night knowing I was a deadman anyway, if you proved innocent. But the game would have ended before then.

 

[Ants!]

I just want to clarify. I don’t think ALL the wolves need to come out as fake aura seers or whatever. But n1 they all need to decide what their roles are going to be. Someone should fake info, better if two. If someone else claims your role (including RV) CHALLENGE them.

I.e. “I’m the tough guy, Fools is lying”.

The problem I see is that you are successful in convincing the town, you are proven wrong, and then lynched the next day. This is what I mean about miss information getting found out too easily.

 

[Zell 17]

The problem I see is that you are successful in convincing the town, you are proven wrong, and then lynched the next day. This is what I mean about miss information getting found out too easily.

Mislynching a villager and then correctly lynching an evil is too slow. Town will lose.

 

[Ants!]

Not on days one or two.

 

[Zell 17]

Not to mention in some games you will both be real. Imagine if shortkut had said CG was a fake aura seer because he was aura

 

[Ants!]

Actually, maybe on day two, considering how quickly the bodies stacked up.

 

[Zell 17]

Plus on this specific example, I think if they get the TG mislynched you go ham on kills and they’re done.

 

[Ants!]

Not to mention in some games you will both be real. Imagine if shortkut had said CG was a fake aura seer because he was aura

I mean, I get what you’re saying, my only point is that I understand why people will be apprehensive about role claiming before they have to. It feels like a very risky thing to do if they are lying.

 

[Ants!]

Plus on this specific example, I think if they get the TG mislynched you go ham on kills and they’re done.

That would have been awesome. Actually it’s what I was hoping for

 

[Ants!]

Can’t post in the regular thread, so I will reply to Coleman‘s most recent post here. The town most definitely has the advantage. Just because it’s technically possible to lie your way out of some situations, doesn’t mean that there is no advantage.

I feel like I did exactly what Coleman and Zell are saying you should do. I played aggressively, 100 posts on day 1 and I made accusations, the town thought I was on their side and helping figure out the badies. I role claimed, I had a plan in place to do so, and the spirit seer immediately posted that he believes me. I was low on everyone’s suspicions list. I still got pegged as the RK on day 2. EARLY on day 2.

And it feels like whenever anyone says the game favors townies, the response is well you didn’t try this other strategy, or you didn’t target this person instead, etc. That’s my take on it. But like I said, I’ll just agree to disagree and hope I get a townie next time. Lol

 

[Zell 17]

Can’t post in the regular thread, so I will reply to Coleman‘s most recent post here. The town most definitely has the advantage. Just because it’s technically possible to lie your way out of some situations, doesn’t mean that there is no advantage.

I feel like I did exactly what Coleman and Zell are saying you should do. I played aggressively, 100 posts on day 1 and I made accusations, the town thought I was on their side and helping figure out the badies. I role claimed, I had a plan in place to do so, and the spirit seer immediately posted that he believes me. I was low on everyone’s suspicions list. I still got pegged as the RK on day 2. EARLY on day 2.

And it feels like whenever anyone says the game favors townies, the response is well you didn’t try this other strategy, or you didn’t target this person instead, etc. That’s my take on it. But like I said, I’ll just agree to disagree and hope I get a townie next time. Lol

100% favors the town. And I agree you didn’t do anything wrong. You were a casualty of bad decisions made by the wolves. They eliminated all the places you could hide, so you go caught by process of elimination.

 

[Ryan!]

Please let Cole and I have Wolf next game. I want to see if we can break this for the baddies.

 

[Ryan!]

If Head Hunter ends up in a game it makes perfect sense as a Wolf to try and make it seem that they're the Head Hunter and then wildly pushing for one of your fellow Wolves. If it becomes too obvious, the town doesn't bother voting for that person. The Wolves obviously don't kill them. And the same Wolf pretending to be the HH keeps playing the same game. It keeps two Wolves I'm the game and protected from the town ever voting for them or using actions on them.

 

[Ants!]

I will try it your way and see what happens. If I happen to roll baddie a 4th time (lol) I will false role claim a lot earlier and see what happens.

 

[shortkut]

Us asking the gunner to take Cole out because we figured he was RK should have been a sign neither of us was the wolf seer though.

Like I said, if he hadnt said he had 100% certainty of a wolf identity, I wouldn't have really pushed on anything.

Once he said that he was also certain of the gunners identity and that the gunner for sure wasn't going to go after him, it started to open things up a bit.

We could say Cole was lying about his claim that he'd be voting for a certified wolf, but it got people talking and sussed out the fool.

This is exactly why I did what I did regarding Cole on day one. I even half complained to Zell that 7 of the 14 possible roles with unknown auras were townies, so on its own, knowing Cole was unknown was useless

 

[shortkut]

I will try it your way and see what happens. If I happen to roll baddie a 4th time (lol) I will false role claim a lot earlier and see what happens.

I’m still voting for you day 1

 

[Ryan!]

I’m still voting for you day 1

Same. Ants gets the rope

 

[Zell 17]

So I want to mention too, the wolves had some bad luck too. The solo killer had no kills (partially because the random draw was a role where it is advantageous to stack kills). The fool died during day 1.

And even with that, if the wolves berserk on Cole last night they almost certainly win. The only way the town survives without the gunner and jailer is if they lynch Ants! first that day (based on no info) and they also need to nail the Wolf Avenger last. Tough sledding.

 

[shortkut]

Sounds like more than just bad luck. It’s sounds like baseball analytics, where the numbers state one thing should happen, but it never does. There are some things that are not quantifiable, intangibles if you will. Whatever the case is, with the group we have playing, the town is over powered

 

[shortkut]

Sounds like more than just bad luck. It’s sounds like baseball analytics, where the numbers state one thing should happen, but it never does. There are some things that are not quantifiable, intangibles if you will. Whatever the case is, with the group we have playing, the town is over powered

Hit send too early

It could be that we all know each other pretty well, so we can get much better reads than if we were playing with randos. That already gives a boost to our detection abilities. Add in a multitude of roles that can detect/identify, we’re going to figure it out faster

 

[Zell 17]

Hit send too early

It could be that we all know each other pretty well, so we can get much better reads than if we were playing with randos. That already gives a boost to our detection abilities. Add in a multitude of roles that can detect/identify, we’re going to figure it out faster

I actually feel like the detection has been slower than expected because villagers are afraid to claim their roles. I don’t think the towns have been playing all that well either, they’re just ahead of the evils.

People are still learning the game some. Like I said I’ll tinker.

 

[Ants!]

I’m willing to give this way another shot. Just have to get used to the play style.

 

[shortkut]

I actually feel like the detection has been slower than expected because villagers are afraid to claim their roles. I don’t think the towns have been playing all that well either, they’re just ahead of the evils.

People are still learning the game some. Like I said I’ll tinker.

I find this contradictory

The town is not overpowered, but they are dominating the evil factions within 2 days, however they are also doing this too slowly

 

[shortkut]

@Zell 17 can I vote skip to get Cole and TD to stop?

 

[Zell 17]

I find this contradictory

The town is not overpowered, but they are dominating the evil factions within 2 days, however they are also doing this too slowly

What I mean is the town was at risk of losing this game because they couldn’t find an evil to lynch yesterday. If the wolves berserk on the gunner/jailer it was almost definitely over in favor of the evils. It would have been 7 townie vs 5 evils. No bullets, only lynching. And one evil can take another player with them when they die effectively letting the wolves double up on a kill.

 

[Ants!]

SKIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIP!!

 

[shortkut]

@Zell 17 can @Ants! and I skip for the town

 

[Zell 17]

The wolves have decided to draw it out. They explicitly want the whole day.

 

[shortkut]

Can cole find another bullet and shoot Dean?

 

[Ants!]

But Holly basically conceded. What do they stand to gain by dragging it out? I don’t think they can lie their way out of it at this point.

 

[Ants!]

Oh sweet, never mind.

 

[Ants!]

Can’t wait to see who Holly takes down with her. Lol

 

[shortkut]

Can’t wait to see who Holly takes down with her. Lol

Just who I expected her to take. Welcome to the afterlife @Cole

 

[Ants!]

That awkward moment when you get to heaven and the people you killed are waiting for you.

 

[Ants!]

So if I didn’t take back my hit on Holly the first night, we would have been down one wolf and the gunner, Cole’s day 1 stunt would have never happened, and the serial killer (myself) and the fool would have BOTH shown up red to the spirit seer.

Then if the seer came forward with his info, I and the fool both would have tried to steer the ship to having the fool lynched and end the game. Lol

 

[shortkut]

That awkward moment when you get to heaven and the people you killed are waiting for you.

 

[shortkut]

So if I didn’t take back my hit on Holly the first night, we would have been down one wolf and the gunner, Cole’s day 1 stunt would have never happened, and the serial killer (myself) and the fool would have BOTH shown up red to the spirit seer.

Then if the seer came forward with his info, I and the fool both would have tried to steer the ship to having the fool lynched and end the game. Lol

Would have saved a lot of reading

 

[Ants!]

Why are you snubbing @Holly ? She deserves a hello too

 

[Cole]

HI GUYS HOWS IT GOIN

 

[shortkut]

Why are you snubbing @Holly ? She deserves a hello too

They killed me!

 

[shortkut]

HI GUYS HOWS IT GOIN

 

[Cole]

I'll read through this later I'm sure it was lovely discussion

 

[Ants!]

@Cole I showed my wife your last post after Zell closed the thread because she wanted to know why I was laughing, then she laughed too. That’s one of my regular jokes

 

[Cole]

Don't let him upset you like that A. Everything you say carries great weight.

Why is your name your role though. At least out the wolf you've found!

I did thst because I wanted to confuse the people in the game

My name is my role because the admins think they're funny

correction *I* think I'm funny

I was gunna wait until tomorrow but decided to get spicy tonight lol, oh well. Looks like the priest is still cursed

oh Tommy. my whole plan hinged on you NOT taking the risk.

Cool.

canadaguy is either outing himself as a second aura seer or pretending to be one who targeted Cole last night. He listed off all the "aura = good" characters in the game (outside of aura seer) and said Cole can't be one. Since he's not a wolf, that would leave him implying that Cole is one of the unknowns, which could either be useful to the town or a solo team.

This is the kind of fun I'd expect in a game like this. People claiming things like that without straight up saying it (though this is pretty obvious). Cole is obviously harder to read, but he could be a solo team for sure, even if canadaguy is making this up to save his own ass.

your game analysis never fails to amaze me.

Also, regardless of what role he does actually have, he's obviously playing this one extremely different than the past two games. In addition to getting rid of his "no vote on day 1" mantra from the past 2 games, he's also posted way less in general. This is just a good stylistic change for not just this game, but future ones as well.

I fuckin love you man

Either that or a really bold hail mary attempt at staying alive. I knew that my death could have totally been in vain but I am certain me watering him made it easier to determine he is on a solo team. Or he just really knows how to play people in multiple ways.

poker. a lot. of poker. (and also childhood abuse trauma)

Gunner stepping up this early is also a risk though. That would be a full reveal and easy target for the wolves (especially if there's a berserk wolf out there) at night. No one is going around claiming protection roles, revealing the gunner could result in multiple people protecting him and the berserk wolf taking out potentially all the protectors in a single go.

Of course, the same thing could happen to canadaguy now. But with Cole definitively not a wolf, he wouldn't be the one planning for this.

thank you. I don't know how anyone on the town's side thought risking the gunner for lil old me without any kind of strategy was a good idea. @TD fucking nailed it.

Not sure why Cole being the Gunner should be surprising at this point. He literally said the Gunner was on his side and knew it, and there was only one way for that to happen

Also it's what I was assuming when no one was taking the shot yesterday, but I had no way to verify it (it also could have been TD, for instance)

I think people were so twisted by my posting style that they ignored the obvious point where I told them what I was.

it's even more funny that I included the Thanos snap, and @shortkut was like "he gets dusted right after this". that's why I posted it. because I knew what I was about to do, and I knew I would die for it

Gunner couldn't shoot Cole because Cole is gunner LOLOLOLOL no wonder why he DMed me like "bruh what doing" lmfao. Wow what a game. Everyone is fucked up right now. Round of applause for Cole when he reads this eventually. Stellar showing. Dude is too good at this game.

you're sweet.

I dunno, to me it made it perfectly obvious when added to the fact that s different Gunner didn't shoot him

I love you

I mean that's fair. I go a long way back with Cole (which is how I knew his play this game wasn't him being salty). He wouldn't make a statement like that if it were very easily proven wrong - aka if he says there isn't a chance the gunner will take him down, then there's a good reason for that. There are too many priest wannabes out there that would take the shot. And making a definitive statement that was then basically instantly disproven would be a bad play for future games.

man you're awesome. if I was salty I would not have played, I wouldn't enter and ruin everyone else's game. I just needed to mix it up.

I think no matter what Cole was planning on potentially using a bullet today. You just happened to be the lucky winner of it after being suspicious enough. There's a decent chance he'll be in here with us tomorrow though, unless of course the wolves don't actually have a berserk.

one of the most accurate reads of the whole game. my original plan was to take a shot. the odds weren't that bad when it came down to it. then Tommy went and splashed me and I couldn't risk a random shot. but then ryan

shortkut is all over the place in this game

he REALLY fucking was.

I was really low on everyone’s sus list until kut died and alu revived and then vash and TD came out with their info as well. Things just snowballed this morning when I thought I had a lot more time after successfully making everyone convinced I was Town on day 1.

you played a great game man. you should be proud

The Wolves have a Berserker, could easily guess someone would be protecting Cole, and decided it wasn't worth pulling the trigger and went for kut who already had a ton of suspicion on him?

Dean is smarter than this. Dean is way better a player than this. He has to be smashing his head against a wall right now.

if they had berseker, I am so beyond baffled. Dean IS a good player and there's no way he doesn't take that risk on me.

Night 1, always berserk Cole. Imagine if 3 people are protecting him? Awesome night for the wolves

Zell said they can't berserk night 0

No worries. The issue I’m having isn’t that the game is unbalanced. The issue is that Coleman figured out the meta-for the town in the first game and the evils haven’t figured it out yet

I know it would have been good to take out the gunner, but Coleman listed me as very low on his suspicions list so I thought strategically it made sense not to this time.

foe the rest of our games together, please assume that a lot of my ratings are bullshit. if there's someone I suspect, I will rate them lower to hopefully let them ease up. if there's someone I strongly believe IS a townie, I will rate them higher so the wolves have someone they can divert suspicion to instead of just eat.

my rating for you was probably what I really thought, you played a great game. but never assume those are accurate.

Please let Cole and I have Wolf next game. I want to see if we can break this for the baddies.

oh I'm confident I can. I already have my strat.

That awkward moment when you get to heaven and the people you killed are waiting for you.

...I thought this was Iowa

So if I didn’t take back my hit on Holly the first night, we would have been down one wolf and the gunner, Cole’s day 1 stunt would have never happened, and the serial killer (myself) and the fool would have BOTH shown up red to the spirit seer.

Then if the seer came forward with his info, I and the fool both would have tried to steer the ship to having the fool lynched and end the game. Lol

you did great, man.

@Cole I showed my wife your last post after Zell closed the thread because she wanted to know why I was laughing, then she laughed too. That’s one of my regular jokes

I couldn't resist.

that day 1 is one of the most fun wolf experiences I've ever had. I was watching my friends kids that day, so I was slightly occupied, but I couldn't stop reading it. the fact that people went balls deep into the analysis game was awesome, I loved that they went hard. I loved that some silly strategy that I hadn't even fully thought out has garnered so much attention.

I get why people feel like the game favors the town. I don't think it does. it's asymmetrical balance and if the wolves do things right. they will do well.

ants you said you played aggressive and it didn't work.

it's not just about posts, it's about actions. come up with a plan (like I did in FQs game) and execute it. know your enemies and find their weakness. in this game? their weakness is role claiming.

good luck and God speed since apparently you're always evil.

 

[Ryan!]

Really wish Ants had killed night 0. Would have gotten rid of Cole, so no bullet. TD would have seen me as red, all my play would have been suspicious enough that I get myself lynched day 1 and taken it instantly. TD would almost certainly have pushed to get me dead, even with the risk, and I would have been spared the bullet.

 

[Zell 17]

@Holly @Benzine are here for real this time

 

[Cole]

stupid holly and her stupid revenge killing

 

[Ryan!]

Wolves got blitzed in just over a day

 

[Ants!]

Really wish Ants had killed night 0. Would have gotten rid of Cole, so no bullet. TD would have seen me as red, all my play would have been suspicious enough that I get myself lynched day 1 and taken it instantly. TD would almost certainly have pushed to get me dead, even with the risk, and I would have been spared the bullet.

I actually really wish this too. It would’ve been a far more interesting end of the game for the fall to win at all