Ben Wolf Ben Wulf 1 - Day Phase #2

[Quagmire]

I can splash today. I said it earlier that I'd only want to live if possible. And to shoot Benzine in jail.

Splash either shortkut or I then

 

[Quagmire]

Well I guess that would only show that we're not a wolf, then splash whoever you think is a wolf

 

[shortkut]

Splash either shortkut or I then

I’m good being splashed because I’ll stay alive. I just don’t want to lose a townie because of it

 

[finlandguy]

Splash either shortkut or I then

I'm most likely going to splash Benzine. The only other option would be you. I don't got to worry about kut.

 

[Quagmire]

I'm most likely going to splash Benzine. The only other option would be you. I don't got to worry about kut.

Why are you not worried about Kut?

 

[Quagmire]

I’m good being splashed because I’ll stay alive. I just don’t want to lose a townie because of it

Funny enough same reasoning

But if you're the arsonist I think you would still survive

 

[shortkut]

Funny enough same reasoning

But if you're the arsonist I think you would still survive

Yes, but my flame would be extinguished and I’m having so much fun

 

[finlandguy]

Why are you not worried about Kut?

Currently I'm not. Sure, you could be the real HH, but then he's just one of the evils. He'd be lynched tomorrow. We got enough lynching and killing power to shift through a few unknown folks.

 

[Jon]

If Jawneh is a priest he can't be a HH target. He can also prove himself before the lynch. I find it weird he is pushing to be jailed gunman tonight. Sounds like an arsonist or wolf with nothing else to do.

This is where I've leaned.

If he picks wrong as a priest he dies and there would only be 3 townies remaining to 3 evils, granted we'd be easily able to guarantee one of them going down tonight, but if that one isn't the wolf, then it would be 2-2 tomorrow. The wolf wouldn't play nice and kill the HH target via lynch, in fact there likely wouldn't be a lynch again at that point.

But is that such a bad thing right now? We get more info. He splashes and dies, we now have a pretty good idea of who the wolf is. Or, best case, he kills the wolf and we can safely lynch a solo.

If what it takes to believe me 100% is for me to splash and die then I can do it.

At this point, it feels less about proving yourself and more about getting more information.

I’m good being splashed because I’ll stay alive. I just don’t want to lose a townie because of it

Why are you so pro town? Most evil/solo players want evil/solo to win if they can't. You can't win with the town unless your target is dead.

I think lynching is too dangerous right now with a possible fool/HH cupid in play. I still lean on the side of Jawneh trying to splash whoever he thinks is the wolf and we can gain more information. Between Quagmire and Kut both claiming HH, I feel they are the two solo roles. I still think it's more likely Quagmire is the Arsonist.

I just think the pushing to go the Warden route feels too convenient to discount being a cupid situation.

 

[shortkut]

Why are you so pro town? Most evil/solo players want evil/solo to win if they can't. You can't win with the town unless your target is dead.

Pretty sure I win with the town. Either way, there are still two people who can kill her for me and make me part of the town more officially. Additionally, maybe we get the lynch wrong today and the evils decide to let me win by voting Christina because they know they cannot win at this point. My best chance of any victory is aligning with the town

 

[shortkut]

I think lynching is too dangerous right now with a possible fool/HH cupid in play. I still lean on the side of Jawneh trying to splash whoever he thinks is the wolf and we can gain more information. Between Quagmire and Kut both claiming HH, I feel they are the two solo roles. I still think it's more likely Quagmire is the Arsonist.

I just think the pushing to go the Warden route feels too convenient to discount being a cupid situation

You’re still voting Jawneh which would lead to a lynch

 

[A Maybe Baker]

If Jawneh is a priest and guesses wrong, and the headhunter hasn't been converted, then the town no longer can dictate the lynch. It would take one of the evils joining us.

We would then know that the remaining wolf is among the other two and I could jail them both to stop a wolf kill, but then we'd be right back where we are now if one doesn't kill the other in jail.

 

[shortkut]

If Jawneh is a priest and guesses wrong, and the headhunter hasn't been converted, then the town no longer can dictate the lynch. It would take one of the evils joining us.

We would then know that the remaining wolf is among the other two and I could jail them both to stop a wolf kill, but then we'd be right back where we are now if one doesn't kill the other in jail.

I’ll defer to you. There have been suggestions to not lynch today as well as suggestions for Jawneh not to splash. Where are you leaning?

 

[Jon]

Pretty sure I win with the town. Either way, there are still two people who can kill her for me and make me part of the town more officially. Additionally, maybe we get the lynch wrong today and the evils decide to let me win by voting Christina because they know they cannot win at this point. My best chance of any victory is aligning with the town

I think that was changed as part of Zell's "Make the solos think more about their win conditions" changes. You can only win with the town if your target is killed. If she survives, you lose. It's in the description.

If Jawneh is a priest and guesses wrong, and the headhunter hasn't been converted, then the town no longer can dictate the lynch. It would take one of the evils joining us.

We would then know that the remaining wolf is among the other two and I could jail them both to stop a wolf kill, but then we'd be right back where we are now if one doesn't kill the other in jail.

So what do you suggest?

 

[Jon]

I will note too, that Christina STILL hasn't revealed her role.

 

[shortkut]

think that was changed as part of Zell's "Make the solos think more about their win conditions" changes. You can only win with the town if your target is killed. If she survives, you lose. It's in the description

You shouldn’t have told me that,

But I fully expect a wolf or arsonist to get her before the end

 

[Christina]

You shouldn’t have told me that,

But I fully expect a wolf or arsonist to get her before the end

Headhunter has no chance at lynch use it's Benzine.

 

[shortkut]

Headhunter has no chance at lynch use it's Benzine.

Yes but if you die via other means then I can win with the town

 

[shortkut]

I will note too, that Christina STILL hasn't revealed her role.

Doesn’t matter too much, I am confirming she is town

 

[shortkut]

Doesn’t matter too much, I am confirming she is town

And that I want her dead… via lynch preferably

 

[shortkut]

Omg I triple… quadruple posted!

 

[Jon]

You shouldn’t have told me that,

But I fully expect a wolf or arsonist to get her before the end

Hey, I'm nothing it not fair.

Plus it speaks to motivations. If you're Cupid and not HH, you'd be pushing in the way you are. You're behavior just seems off.

Not in a bad way.... more in a "shortkut is reading, paying attention and trying" way.

I've been a wolf with you. This is how you play when you want to win. You strategerize. You're better than you credit yourself to be.

 

[shortkut]

Hey, I'm nothing it not fair.

Plus it speaks to motivations. If you're Cupid and not HH, you'd be pushing in the way you are. You're behavior just seems off.

Not in a bad way.... more in a "shortkut is reading, paying attention and trying" way.

I've been a wolf with you. This is how you play when you want to win. You strategerize. You're better than you credit yourself to be.

I thought I was strategerizing but you just pointed out I didn’t know the update Zell made to my role

I can still hope the town fucks up and the evils decide to let me win or that the evils kill Christina and then I can win with the town

 

[Jon]

Doesn’t matter too much, I am confirming she is town

It does matter a little, and you confirming she's town doesn't necessarily mean anything. Especially if you're Cupid with Jawneh and her coupled.

I am not going to push her on it, but if it helps us, it'd be nice to know.

 

[Christina]

So the warden lock up happens very first thing right?

 

[A Maybe Baker]

So what do you suggest?

If we're not going the "Hope Jawneh does his pick correct!" route, then we 100% need to lynch today, and we 100% need to get someone killed in jail.

 

[shortkut]

If we're not going the "Hope Jawneh does his pick correct!" route, then we 100% need to lynch today, and we 100% need to get someone killed in jail.

And if we are?

 

[Christina]

If we're not going the "Hope Jawneh does his pick correct!" route, then we 100% need to lynch today, and we 100% need to get someone killed in jail.

I don't think Jawneh can splash anybody, honestly.

 

[A Maybe Baker]

So the warden lock up happens very first thing right?

Night events will go in the following priority order regardless of when the PMs are sent to me:
Wolf Nightmare activates
Beast Hunter picks up trap (if moved)
Wolf Shaman/Confusion activates
Medium/Ritualist revive spell
Wolves break out of warden prison
Warden weapon used

The only thing that could come before the ability to drop the weapon and cause it to not be dropped would be Nightmare wolf, and there is not one.

The other thing that could prevent it would be a bully hitting me with a rock, but we also have no bully.

 

[shortkut]

I don't think Jawneh can splash anybody, honestly.

So do we kill him or benzine today?

 

[Christina]

And if we are?

Keep Jawneh on the hot seat. Because he either lied about being a priest and thus a bad guy, or he is a priest and can't be a headhunter target.

 

[Jon]

So the warden lock up happens very first thing right?

One of the first, yes.

If we're not going the "Hope Jawneh does his pick correct!" route, then we 100% need to lynch today, and we 100% need to get someone killed in jail.

I'm fine either way, but I think lynching is more dangerous with two claimed HH. Even if I think they are both fibbing.

I don't think Jawneh can splash anybody, honestly.

He can only splash the last wolf SUCCESSFULY.

 

[Quagmire]

Omg I triple… quadruple posted!

Straight to jail

 

[Jon]

Straight to jail

Oh, he will be.

You too, by the looks of it.

You can tell him how you feel.

 

[A Maybe Baker]

Keep Jawneh on the hot seat. Because he either lied about being a priest and thus a bad guy, or he is a priest and can't be a headhunter target.

But if we lynch a priest what good does that do? If we cause the priest to kill himself on the wrong target, what good does that do?

 

[Christina]

But if we lynch a priest what good does that do? If we cause the priest to kill himself on the wrong target, what good does that do?

We know the other 3 are all bad.

 

[shortkut]

 

[shortkut]

We know the other 3 are all bad.

I’m not entirely bad. I just want bad things to happen to you… I think I’ve been spending too much time with your husband

 

[Christina]

Ok to meta game a little, what are the odds I'm headhunter target twice in a townie of headhunters? I was Benzine's target.

 

[Jon]

We know the other 3 are all bad.

We know that already, but him missplashing would narrow down roles.

I think Quagmire may be the safest lynch, honestly. If he's the fool, it seems weird Kut would die on the HH hill. Quagmire is more likely the Arsonist (that can't hurt us tonight).

Benzine or Jawneh are likely the last wolf.

And I really think Kut is Cupid. It's a hunch.

Maybe someone of the Local Hero Detective Polyjuice Potion is lingering in me.

 

[shortkut]

Ok to meta game a little, what are the odds I'm headhunter target twice in a townie of headhunters? I was Benzine's target.

@Ryan! can you calculate the odds for us?

 

[Jon]

Ok to meta game a little, what are the odds I'm headhunter target twice in a townie of headhunters? I was Benzine's target.

33.33% Repeating of course.

 

[shortkut]

We know that already, but him missplashing would narrow down roles.

I think Quagmire may be the safest lynch, honestly. If he's the fool, it seems weird Kut would die on the HH hill. Quagmire is more likely the Arsonist (that can't hurt us tonight).

Benzine or Jawneh are likely the last wolf.

And I really think Kut is Cupid. It's a hunch.

Maybe someone of the Local Hero Detective Polyjuice Potion is lingering in me.

I am not the cupid

 

[Jon]

I still think Jawneh confirming he's the last townie and splashing Benzine would give us the most information possible.

Then we can lynch Quagmire and win now...

Rather than going through multiple more phases.

 

[Quagmire]

We know that already, but him missplashing would narrow down roles.

I think Quagmire may be the safest lynch, honestly. If he's the fool, it seems weird Kut would die on the HH hill. Quagmire is more likely the Arsonist (that can't hurt us tonight).

Benzine or Jawneh are likely the last wolf.

And I really think Kut is Cupid. It's a hunch.

Maybe someone of the Local Hero Detective Polyjuice Potion is lingering in me.

No fool out there

If I am the arsonist you can lynch me tomorrow, I can't do anything tonight

 

[Jon]

Let me rephrase... if he can confirm he's the last townie and splashes Benzine and he's the last wolf, we can lynch Quagmire and if he's Arso, we win.

 

[A Maybe Baker]

We know the other 3 are all bad.

And then we would no longer outnumber them.

 

[Jon]

@Benzine - When you wake up it'd be nice to hear from you too.

 

[A Maybe Baker]

So if Jawneh is who he says he is, then he can splash to get us the win. But if he misses then we're no longer in a safe position.

 

[shortkut]

Let me rephrase... if he can confirm he's the last townie and splashes Benzine and he's the last wolf, we can lynch Quagmire and if he's Arso, we win.

My concern is benzine is arson and quag is wolf. If Jawneh splashes benzine, then he dies and then quag kills someone overnight if Ali jails me and benzine. That’s a problem