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Ben Wulf 1 - Day Phase #2

Who is guilty? 3 needed.

  • A Punched Face

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Benzine

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Christina

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Jon

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • shortkut

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    19
  • Poll closed .
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A PineSol Scent

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You think I was able to Cupid together 2 townies and keep them alive this long?
You have no say in the matter for how long they live if you're cupid. It just comes across as the two of them saying there's still a win if it comes down to 3-3, which would make sense if there's a cupid and they're the couple, because then the cupid would vote with the town.

I'm trying to understand why they're being bad with math here. If we get down to 3-3 and I can't guarantee a wolf kill in jail, we're SOL.
 

shortkut

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You have no say in the matter for how long they live if you're cupid. It just comes across as the two of them saying there's still a win if it comes down to 3-3, which would make sense if there's a cupid and they're the couple, because then the cupid would vote with the town.

I'm trying to understand why they're being bad with math here. If we get down to 3-3 and I can't guarantee a wolf kill in jail, we're SOL.
I was agreeing with your math and suggested no killing period. If the wolf is jailed but not killed, we don’t lose anyone. If the wolf is jailed and given a weapon, it is the same as not jailing.
 

shortkut

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Ok. Worse case with lynching Quagmire. He is not lying and is the headhunter.

We know then that kut is super full of shit and he gets jailed and killed over night. Leaving jawneh and Benzine to be worked out tomorrow.
You just don’t like that I want your head on a pike

bart simpson GIF
 

A PineSol Scent

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Ok. Worse case with lynching Quagmire. He is not lying and is the headhunter.

We know then that kut is super full of shit and he gets jailed and killed over night. Leaving jawneh and Benzine to be worked out tomorrow.
Lynch Quagmire, kill kut overnight. If the wolf is dead, great, we have 2 shots to lynch the right person (if needed), if the wolf is not dead, Jawneh splashes Benzine or we lynch Jawneh.

Currently 4-3
Lynch = 4-2
Kill = 4-1
If wolf not killed:
3-1 and either Jawneh proves himself or lynch the last wolf (being Jawneh)

If wolf killed and 4-1:
Lynch either Benzine or Jawneh
Jail the other with random townie so no arsonist kill
3-1
Lynch other the next day.


Why bother with a splash that would make it not a guaranteed win? The only way to lose in the outlined scenario above is if the fool is lynched or if there's a cupid couple to mess things up. If there's truly a headhunter, we're fine.
 

Christina

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So back to the headhunter twins.
Lynch Quagmire, kill kut overnight. If the wolf is dead, great, we have 2 shots to lynch the right person (if needed), if the wolf is not dead, Jawneh splashes Benzine or we lynch Jawneh.

Currently 4-3
Lynch = 4-2
Kill = 4-1
If wolf not killed:
3-1 and either Jawneh proves himself or lynch the last wolf (being Jawneh)

If wolf killed and 4-1:
Lynch either Benzine or Jawneh
Jail the other with random townie so no arsonist kill
3-1
Lynch other the next day.


Why bother with a splash that would make it not a guaranteed win? The only way to lose in the outlined scenario above is if the fool is lynched or if there's a cupid couple to mess things up. If there's truly a headhunter, we're fine.
So fool vs headhunter. Jawneh trying to get himself out of lynch feels not a fool. Benzine has been really not here. Yesterday he posted 3 times and added nothing. He's was either laying low because he was badong or because he had no ability yet.

Kut doesn't seems like he's using headhunter as protection from being lynched rather than Vash method of getting lynched.

Quagmire feels cornered and like they are trying to not get lynched either. Not sure I feel an underlying look at me! Especially with claiming that your target is dead which would make him a townie now, if he is telling the truth.
 

Jawneh

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I regret pointing out benzine was probably wolf and saving you from a lynch now
I would be fine with not killing you until further evidence. I'm going with Alu's plan as it's basically the same result. There's no point in me arguing about it.

Why would you lie about HH if you're a townie?
He's trying to project his inner Jawneh.
 

A PineSol Scent

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Because Jawneh probably is just trying to buy time and can't splash
Why is that a problem in the scenario I outlined above?
If kut is claiming HH with target alive why not just lynch him?

If he were HH I could be his target
Because we need a path that takes care of all the potential baddies, and we can't ignore you in that sadly...even if you're a spent headhunter.
 

shortkut

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Kut, why not jump in on CG's sus on me yesterday? Because CG was so not trusting me yesterday and not being shy about it.
Because by the time I saw it, everyone else ignored it. I did purposefully include it in my summary, hoping someone would build off of it, but no one did, so I laid low
 

A PineSol Scent

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Involves me dying and likely wolf or arsonist another night, granted if he's arsonist he can't do shit tonight
But I outlined how that doesn't matter?

Again:
Currently it stands 4 town to 3 not town
Lynch gets it to 4-2
Jail cell shiv gets it to 4-1

If it's the arsonist still alive, who cares? We get two shots to kill them and I can jail them the second night to prevent even getting to the point of dousing, let alone a fire.
If it's a HH still alive, town wins

If it's a wolf still alive:
3-1 the next day with either a priest who has a clear target, or a fake priest who can't actually do anything who gets lynched


If you and kut are HH and SK, we win tomorrow 3-1. If you're HH and Wolf, we win either tomorrow or the day after. If you're SK and Wolf, we win tomorrow.


Now, if it's not a HH out there, that's where the problem arises. But all other scenarios lead to victory. We had two people independently claim HH though, so that at least seems plausible. If you're the fool and get lynched at this point, congrats on your well earned victory! I have no problems with that.
 

Jon

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But I outlined how that doesn't matter?

Again:
Currently it stands 4 town to 3 not town
Lynch gets it to 4-2
Jail cell shiv gets it to 4-1

If it's the arsonist still alive, who cares? We get two shots to kill them and I can jail them the second night to prevent even getting to the point of dousing, let alone a fire.
If it's a HH still alive, town wins

If it's a wolf still alive:
3-1 the next day with either a priest who has a clear target, or a fake priest who can't actually do anything who gets lynched


If you and kut are HH and SK, we win tomorrow 3-1. If you're HH and Wolf, we win either tomorrow or the day after. If you're SK and Wolf, we win tomorrow.


Now, if it's not a HH out there, that's where the problem arises. But all other scenarios lead to victory. We had two people independently claim HH though, so that at least seems plausible. If you're the fool and get lynched at this point, congrats on your well earned victory! I have no problems with that.
Why are you ignoring the possibility of a Fool too? I still think lynching is just as dangerous as missing a splash here. And they baddies can't outnumber us. At which point the worst they could do is force a tied vote. And we'd still have a Warden kill.

It seems you either KNOW there's no Fool, or you're trying to protect Jawneh. Maybe there is a cupid and it's you that's coupled?
 

A PineSol Scent

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Why are you ignoring the possibility of a Fool too? I still think lynching is just as dangerous as missing a splash here. And they baddies can't outnumber us. At which point the worst they could do is force a tied vote. And we'd still have a Warden kill.

It seems you either KNOW there's no Fool, or you're trying to protect Jawneh. Maybe there is a cupid and it's you that's coupled?
I literally said "if you're a fool and win, congrats"

A missed splash is a coin flip on if it'll be a loss for us or not. A literal coinflip.


There's only a 33% chance the splash hits an actual wolf. We do not know which bad person is which. 66% chance it results in a dead townie, then a 50% chance of picking correctly to get the wolf killed at night.

Vs...what odds for Quagmire being the Fool?
 

A PineSol Scent

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Also what? If we're tied with the bad team number wise, we NEED the warden kill to hit the wolf specifically or we lose the game. Why are you not seeing this? I can lock up the two remaining suspects, but then we wouldn't get a kill out of it and we'd be tied the next day and I couldn't lock up the wolf again.
 

shortkut

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Also what? If we're tied with the bad team number wise, we NEED the warden kill to hit the wolf specifically or we lose the game. Why are you not seeing this? I can lock up the two remaining suspects, but then we wouldn't get a kill out of it and we'd be tied the next day and I couldn't lock up the wolf again.
Lock up wolf today and arsonist tomorrow
 
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