Ben Wulf 1 - Day Phase #2

[shortkut]

Oh? And who are they?

Benzine or Jawneh wolf
Jawneh or quagmire arsonist

 

[A PineSol Scent]

Benzine or Jawneh wolf
Jawneh or quagmire arsonist

Oh so I'd need to coinflip pick the right one?

 

[shortkut]

Oh so I'd need to coinflip pick the right one?

Roll a d4

 

[Jon]

Also what? If we're tied with the bad team number wise, we NEED the warden kill to hit the wolf specifically or we lose the game. Why are you not seeing this? I can lock up the two remaining suspects, but then we wouldn't get a kill out of it and we'd be tied the next day and I couldn't lock up the wolf again.

Fwiw, I do see what you're saying. I just think the percentages are a little skewed here is all.

Personally, this is the best game I've played in probably ever... so I'd really like the town to win and not be outwitted by the solos.

But that's just me being selfish.

 

[Quagmire]

Oh so I'd need to coinflip pick the right one?

And swap cut with me

 

[A PineSol Scent]

Fwiw, I do see what you're saying. I just think the percentages are a little skewed here is all.

Personally, this is the best game I've played in probably ever... so I'd really like the town to win and not be outwitted by the solos.

But that's just me being selfish.

And forcing a potential priest in to a low percentage choice that would almost certainly lead us to failure does that how?

I didn't give any odds for anyone being the Fool vs. the HH, so what odds did I present that are skewed?


If Jawneh is really a priest, then one of Quagmire, Shortkut, or Benzine is the last wolf. We don't know which is which and have no way of knowing which is which. That's 33% chance of picking the right one. Picking the wrong one narrows it down to 2 choices for the wolf who I would need to put in jail with a confirmed townie in order to get them killed. That's a 50% chance.


There are 3 solo roles there could have been in this game: Cupid, Fool, Headhunter (no WWF option). Chance of there being a fool. 33% - Chance of the first of 4 people we plan to lynch being the fool (in the case that there is one): 8.25%

 

[Christina]

Nobody seems ok with being killed. Kut seems to want no lynch which makes me think he's worried about somebody blowing his cover when a role is revealed.

 

[shortkut]

Nobody seems ok with being killed. Kut seems to want no lynch which makes me think he's worried about somebody blowing his cover when a role is revealed.

I want the wolf killed. I think killing quagmire is pointless because he’s a neutered arsonist today

 

[Jon]

I'm seriously getting to the point where we just lynch Kut.

 

[shortkut]

I'm seriously getting to the point where we just lynch Kut.

 

[A PineSol Scent]

I'm seriously getting to the point where we just lynch Kut.

Why kut specifically?

 

[Jawneh]

I want the wolf killed. I think killing quagmire is pointless because he’s a neutered arsonist today

Lynching one of the evil suspects today helps us with Alu's jail kill and lynch/splash today. We all are thinking Quagmire is the arsonist, but don't know for sure. This is a safe way to go currently.

 

[Jon]

Either he's the Fool and this stupidity ends. He's HH and we know there's no Fool or Cupid. He's Arso and we've taken the solo out. Or he's wolf and we're all happy.

 

[Christina]

I'm seriously getting to the point where we just lynch Kut.

I'm just worried enough his pulling the Vash pretend to be a headhunter to get murdered thing to not kill him, but my theory is, he's the last wolf and is using headhunter to hide.

 

[shortkut]

I'm just worried enough his pulling the Vash pretend to be a headhunter to get murdered thing to not kill him, but my theory is, he's the last wolf and is using headhunter to hide.

I’m not the last wolf or Alu would have been dead overnight

 

[Jon]

I'm just worried enough his pulling the Vash pretend to be a headhunter to get murdered thing to not kill him, but my theory is, he's the last wolf and is using headhunter to hide.

I've said this since he called HH, that he is fibbing.

I think the only thing I'm sure of is he isn't who he says he is.

 

[A PineSol Scent]

Either he's the Fool and this stupidity ends. He's HH and we know there's no Fool or Cupid. He's Arso and we've taken the solo out. Or he's wolf and we're all happy.

How is that different than lynching Quagmire?

 

[shortkut]

How is that different than lynching Quagmire?

I’ve annoyed Jon, and quagmire hasn’t

 

[shortkut]

How is that different than lynching Quagmire?

I’ve annoyed Jon, and quagmire hasn’t

So keeping me alive means I get to annoy Jon for longer

 

[Jon]

How is that different than lynching Quagmire?

Kut hasn't shut up.

Seriously though? Because Kut has been trying to specifically pull for certain strategies I just can't see a solo doing at this stage.

 

[A PineSol Scent]

So keeping me alive means I get to annoy Jon for longer

That sounds like a reason to let you live through the day and die at night.

 

[A PineSol Scent]

Kut hasn't shut up.

Seriously though? Because Kut has been trying to specifically pull for certain strategies I just can't see a solo doing at this stage.

But it doesn't matter if he's being jailed and killed in jail tonight? All we need is Quagmire to not be fool and the plan works out.

 

[Jon]

So keeping me alive means I get to annoy Jon for longer

Fwiw, you haven't annoyed me at all. I get what you're trying to do. It's the why I won't understand till post game.

I think we need information. And people trying to protect you as a known baddie SCREAMS cupid to me. And I want to out that if so.

 

[shortkut]

Fwiw, you haven't annoyed me at all. I get what you're trying to do. It's the why I won't understand till post game.

I think we need information. And people trying to protect you as a known baddie SCREAMS cupid to me. And I want to out that if so.

Can you explain what I’m doing, because I don’t know

 

[Quagmire]

Lynching one of the evil suspects today helps us with Alu's jail kill and lynch/splash today. We all are thinking Quagmire is the arsonist, but don't know for sure. This is a safe way to go currently.

If I'm the arsonist I can't do anything tonight and I can only douse the next night so I'm neutered two nights in a row and can't kill until night 3

 

[Jon]

But it doesn't matter if he's being jailed and killed in jail tonight? All we need is Quagmire to not be fool and the plan works out.

Then why Quagmire over Kut if it doesn't matter? There is an equal chance they are both Fool's. Equal chance they are both not.

There's no reason to push for one over the other unless you're trying to protect one.

 

[Jon]

Can you explain what I’m doing, because I don’t know

You're trying to win.

 

[Christina]

Can we not bare minimum the vote? And not leave room for some bullshit to happen at the end of the day?

 

[Jawneh]

Y'all wanna hear a fun little edge case?

If the warden jails a townie and the headhunter, and the headhunter's target has been killed by something else other than a lynch, the headhunter is now consider part of town and either one killing in jail will end up in a town loss.

Y'all are welcome for that thought lol.

 

[shortkut]

If I'm the arsonist I can't do anything tonight and I can only douse the next night so I'm neutered two nights in a row and can't kill until night 3

Exactly. That’s what I was saying!

 

[Jon]

Y'all wanna hear a fun little edge case?

If the warden jails a townie and the headhunter, and the headhunter's target has been killed by something else other than a lynch, the headhunter is now consider part of town and either one killing in jail will end up in a town loss.

Y'all are welcome for that thought lol.

I personally knew this. Which is why I've pushed for MORE information, not less. Which is why no matter what numbers Alu is throwing out, I stand by this is ALL a coin flip with no guaranteed outcome.

 

[Jawneh]

If I'm the arsonist I can't do anything tonight and I can only douse the next night so I'm neutered two nights in a row and can't kill until night 3

Well, we'd still need you dead no matter what. And as a self-proclaimed HH, we can lynch you over Benzine who's claimed seer's apprentice, in case this has gone all awry and he's town. The original point of lynching you to see who is the wolf and who is the arsonist still also stands.

You're still the best target to get lynched.

 

[A PineSol Scent]

Then why Quagmire over Kut if it doesn't matter? There is an equal chance they are both Fool's. Equal chance they are both not.

There's no reason to push for one over the other unless you're trying to protect one.

I don't care which goes first.

If kut has a living target as HH then he can be killed in jail. If Quagmire has a dead target as HH, he can't be.

 

[Jon]

Well, we'd still need you dead no matter what. And as a self-proclaimed HH, we can lynch you over Benzine who's claimed seer's apprentice, in case this has gone all awry and he's town. The original point of lynching you to see who is the wolf and who is the arsonist still also stands.

You're still the best target to get lynched.

Why him over Kut?

 

[Jon]

Jon shoots Jon

 

[shortkut]

Because Alu is trying to win

Alternatively, we ask the wolf to nicely kill either me or quagmire and Alu protects the town

 

[Jon]

Because Alu is trying to win

Alternatively, we ask the wolf to nicely kill either me or quagmire and Alu protects the town

The wolf can't kill either of you...

 

[Jawneh]

I personally knew this. Which is why I've pushed for MORE information, not less. Which is why no matter what numbers Alu is throwing out, I stand by this is ALL a coin flip with no guaranteed outcome.

I had mostly the same idea as Alu did. Because cupid possibility, I shouldn't splash. If we knew for sure we had either fool or headhunter, I'd be right there yeeting Jesus juice on everyone.

Still though, Quagmire is safe to lynch. If you don't like the idea of jailing kut with anyone, we can either do you or Christina with Benzine and murder Benzine, or have me with Benzine where I kill Benzine. The worst outcome of the above is if kut is wolf or arsonist, which means he just gets lynched tomorrow after the dust settles.

 

[A PineSol Scent]

The wolf can't kill either of you...

The wolf can kill a solo voter, they just won't in this case.

 

[Christina]

I had mostly the same idea as Alu did. Because cupid possibility, I shouldn't splash. If we knew for sure we had either fool or headhunter, I'd be right there yeeting Jesus juice on everyone.

Still though, Quagmire is safe to lynch. If you don't like the idea of jailing kut with anyone, we can either do you or Christina with Benzine and murder Benzine, or have me with Benzine where I kill Benzine. The worst outcome of the above is if kut is wolf or arsonist, which means he just gets lynched tomorrow after the dust settles.

I don't want to be in jail. I'm claustrophobic.

 

[Quagmire]

The wolf can kill a solo voter, they just won't in this case.

They cannot kill the arsonist, but I think they can kill the Headhunter even if they are not a town yet at least according to the description, though if I live I don't see a wolf coming after me since I am highly suspect because I have no way of proving

 

[A PineSol Scent]

They cannot kill the arsonist, but I think they can kill the Headhunter even if they are not a town yet at least according to the description, though if I live I don't see a wolf coming after me since I am highly suspect because I have no way of proving

Yes that's what I'm saying. A wolf can kill a solo voter no matter what (well not a WWF).

Also Jon why you out here accusing me of being in a cupid pair with kut when I plan on having him killed tonight when you're out here saying we should have Jawneh randomly splash and that we shouldn't lynch Quagmire?

 

[Jon]

I had mostly the same idea as Alu did. Because cupid possibility, I shouldn't splash. If we knew for sure we had either fool or headhunter, I'd be right there yeeting Jesus juice on everyone.

Still though, Quagmire is safe to lynch. If you don't like the idea of jailing kut with anyone, we can either do you or Christina with Benzine and murder Benzine, or have me with Benzine where I kill Benzine. The worst outcome of the above is if kut is wolf or arsonist, which means he just gets lynched tomorrow after the dust settles.

I still don't know what makes Quagmire more safe than Kut. They are claiming the SAME role. The differences are: Kut says his target is alive while Quagmire is saying his isn't and he's town AND Kut has been acting strange.

If Quagmire is the HH with a dead target, he's town and we own the damn vote anyway and all that theorycrafting is useless.

I cannot shake this Cupid feeling with Alu, Kut and Jawneh.

I stand by my thought we should lynch Kut if we're not going to spash.

 

[shortkut]

The wolf can't kill either of you...

Wolf can kill sv but not sk

 

[Quagmire]

I still don't know what makes Quagmire more safe than Kut. They are claiming the SAME role. The differences are: Kut says his target is alive while Quagmire is saying his isn't and he's town AND Kut has been acting strange.

If Quagmire is the HH with a dead target, he's town and we own the damn vote anyway and all that theorycrafting is useless.

I cannot shake this Cupid feeling with Alu, Kut and Jawneh.

I stand by my thought we should lynch Kut if we're not going to spash.

I'm happy to move my vote to cut and call it a night

 

[Jon]

Also Jon why you out here accusing me of being in a cupid pair with kut when I plan on having him killed tonight when you're out here saying we should have Jawneh randomly splash and that we shouldn't lynch Quagmire?

Because you still missed you wardening last night, and I don't necessarily trust you'll do it.

I'm wary of all of you.

Kut is acting strange.
Jawneh is Jawneh.
Benzine has offered no real defense or proof.
Christina refuses to claim her role.
You missed your ability last night and are pushing hard to protect Kut.

Fuck, Quagmire is the least sus one of the group and I still think he's lying!

 

[Jawneh]

I still don't know what makes Quagmire more safe than Kut. They are claiming the SAME role. The differences are: Kut says his target is alive while Quagmire is saying his isn't and he's town AND Kut has been acting strange.

If Quagmire is the HH with a dead target, he's town and we own the damn vote anyway and all that theorycrafting is useless.

I cannot shake this Cupid feeling with Alu, Kut and Jawneh.

I stand by my thought we should lynch Kut if we're not going to spash.

For one, if kut was worried about Quagmire being lynched, he'd have fought against it. kut knows who he is and he knows what Quagmire ain't. Plus Quagmire came in second to say he's the real HH. And how everything has been said between Quagmire and kut, at least kut had attempted to go towards his win condition, where as Quagmire is telling me to die via splash. Not very HH of him.

 

[Christina]

Kut is more likely to be a Fool is Headhunter's clothing than Quagmire.

 

[A PineSol Scent]

I still don't know what makes Quagmire more safe than Kut. They are claiming the SAME role. The differences are: Kut says his target is alive while Quagmire is saying his isn't and he's town AND Kut has been acting strange.

If Quagmire is the HH with a dead target, he's town and we own the damn vote anyway and all that theorycrafting is useless.

I cannot shake this Cupid feeling with Alu, Kut and Jawneh.

I stand by my thought we should lynch Kut if we're not going to spash.

Why are you trying to not get Quagmire killed so hard while also telling Jawneh to yeet himself off a cliff?


Also get the Headhunter with dead target fear out of your head. If that's the case, they're town and can't be killed in Jail...which means we'd have:

5-2 right now:
Lynch someone to get it to either 5-1 or whoops killed the HH 4-2

Jail someone and either win 5-0 with the kill, or hit the HH
If target alive, HH dies. If target dead: town dies but oh wait HH is on our side and we go into the next day either 3-1 or 4-1

 

[Jon]

For one, if kut was worried about Quagmire being lynched, he'd have fought against it. kut knows who he is and he knows what Quagmire ain't. Plus Quagmire came in second to say he's the real HH. And how everything has been said between Quagmire and kut, at least kut had attempted to go towards his win condition, where as Quagmire is telling me to die via splash. Not very HH of him.

...or... He really is the HH with a dead target and he IS playing his win condition.

Why would Kut be worried about Quagmire being lynched at all. he's likely indifferent to whomever it is.