Zell Wolf Zell Wolf 20 - Day 3

[Zell 17]

@Zell 17 can nightmare wolf nightmare someone the same night they're jailed?

Yes. Jailer would be able to jail but not kill / communicate.

 

[Kat]

Yes. Jailer would be able to jail but not kill / communicate.

So the nightmare takes effect before the jailing?

 

[A Vaguely Ambiguous Username]

So the nightmare takes effect before the jailing?

They both take effect immediately as the night starts I believe.

 

[Kat]

So we can't prevent the nightmare. Presumably the wolves will nightmare Benzine then to prevent a kill, which we can't do anything about either.

 

[Kat]

If Vash is the SK doing a pacifist run, I'm going to laugh so much.

 

[Smacktard]

Yeah this is a ploy to make it so they can lynch the SK today and just kill overnight to win tomorrow when the morning starts.

If you really think so, there's an easy way to counter that. The town can agree to all vote on me. The SK can choose whether to vote with the town, or whether to vote with the wolves. If they vote with the town, everything I promised would happen will happen. There will be a stalemate. The wolves and the SK will lose, and the town will win.

Or, they can vote with the wolves and lynch either Vash or Benzine. Their call.

@Jawneh
@Ben
@Local Hero

Remember the react: Blue for Vash, Cheers for Benzine.

 

[VashTheStampede]

So we can't prevent the nightmare. Presumably the wolves will nightmare Benzine then to prevent a kill, which we can't do anything about either.

And according to the Nightmare on Elm Street movies we can't stay up all night either

 

[Smacktard]

So we can't prevent the nightmare. Presumably the wolves will nightmare Benzine then to prevent a kill, which we can't do anything about either.

dude i just told you exactly what our plans are and explained the rationale for all of them

why do people believe me the least when i'm telling the absolute truth

 

[VashTheStampede]

dude i just told you exactly what our plans are and explained the rationale for all of them

why do people believe me the least when i'm telling the absolute truth

Might have something to do with lying the last couple days

 

[Smacktard]

This is the actual play:

They get the SK to not vote with the town
They lynch the SK
Benzine is nightmared (no warden kill)
Benzine is killed (no protection)

Game over. This play is a 0% chance for the SK to win.

Again, you could easily counter this by having the town declare to vote for me. Then the SK can choose who to join -- the town (tie vote) or the wolves (kill Vash).
edit: or Benzine

 

[A Vaguely Ambiguous Username]

Again, you could easily counter this by having the town declare to vote for me. Then the SK can choose who to join -- the town (tie vote) or the wolves (kill Vash).
edit: or Benzine

Why would you recommend voting for you instead of the previously targeted Ben?

 

[Kat]

Ohh I have an idea of what happened yesterday. Do they have a wolf that can't vote?

 

[Kat]

Nevermind, that's only for kills, not lynches

 

[Smacktard]

Why would you recommend voting for you instead of the previously targeted Ben?

Vote for whoever you like, it doesn't make a difference. Just agree upon it beforehand and let the SK choose whether to align with us or with you. That's my point.

 

[A Vaguely Ambiguous Username]

dude i just told you exactly what our plans are and explained the rationale for all of them

why do people believe me the least when i'm telling the absolute truth

"Why do people not believe me the few times I'm actually telling the truth!"
-the person who just admitted to lying about everything before

 

[VashTheStampede]

Ohh I have an idea of what happened yesterday. Do they have a wolf that can't vote?

Like a felon?

 

[Kat]

Why would you recommend voting for you instead of the previously targeted Ben?

This is what I'm trying to figure out, because Smacktard also steered me away from watering Ben.

 

[Smacktard]

"Why do people not believe me the few times I'm actually telling the truth!"
-the person who just admitted to lying about everything before

I lie when it's more beneficial to lie. I tell the truth when it's more beneficial to be honest.

 

[A Vaguely Ambiguous Username]

This is what I'm trying to figure out, because Smacktard also steered me away from watering Ben.

The best we can do is force a tie, but that would lead me more to believe that Ben is the Nightmare wolf and key to their plans.

 

[Kat]

Again, you could easily counter this by having the town declare to vote for me. Then the SK can choose who to join -- the town (tie vote) or the wolves (kill Vash).
edit: or Benzine

I don't believe you because there's no reason to stick to it.

 

[A Vaguely Ambiguous Username]

I lie when it's more beneficial to lie. I tell the truth when it's more beneficial to be honest.

But we've just outlined how you could end it instantly if you could convince the SK to not vote with the town. How is this more beneficial to you?

 

[Kat]

I quoted the wrong post there but I think you get the idea.

 

[Local Hero]

I remain voting for Ben. I recommend all non wolves to keep it on him

 

[A Vaguely Ambiguous Username]

Man. Why did two townies waste their kill shots on Tommy.

@Tommy Boy try to be a worse target next time

 

[VashTheStampede]

Man. Why did two townies waste their kill shots on Tommy.

@Tommy Boy try to be a worse target next time

Hey be nice, he's helping me vote

 

[Zell 17]

Personally I think we should revive Tommy and then kill him again

 

[VashTheStampede]

 

[A Vaguely Ambiguous Username]

Personally I think we should revive Tommy and then kill him again

Revive him, give me a bullet that only works on Tommy, and we're good to go.

 

[Local Hero]

Vash cheersed me. I'm in danger

 

[Smacktard]

This is what I'm trying to figure out, because Smacktard also steered me away from watering Ben.

I'm not the nightmare wolf. That much you obviously know. Your chance of getting it right with your vote is 1/3 though based on who's left. Might be worth the shot.

But we've just outlined how you could end it instantly if you could convince the SK to not vote with the town. How is this more beneficial to you?

Your strategy doesn't make sense. The town can outvote us. We can only kill Vash OR Benzine at night. Benzine kills one of us bringing us down to 2, and then the town outvotes us. The math doesn't math. We lose if we vote off the SK today.

 

[Smacktard]

Anyway with that, I'm off. Night. No answer from the SK so it looks like town victory lmao.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Kelly they might give you shit but I appreciate you trying to help us poor townies understand this fraught situation

Real stand-up fella, you are

 

[VashTheStampede]

Anyway with that, I'm off. Night. No answer from the SK so it looks like town victory lmao.

Meanwhile the SK has everyone's house doused in kerosene

 

[A Vaguely Ambiguous Username]

Your strategy doesn't make sense. The town can outvote us. We can only kill Vash OR Benzine at night. Benzine kills one of us bringing us down to 2, and then the town outvotes us. The math doesn't math. We lose if we vote off the SK today.

I think you missed a crucial step in here but I don't feel like explaining it again since it makes you less likely to win lmao.

 

[A Vaguely Ambiguous Username]

Meanwhile the SK has everyone's house doused in kerosene

 

[Kat]

Let's assume the SK is still alive at the end of the day (because the game will likely be over by tomorrow otherwise). What do we do tonight?

We know they had two shadow. They maybe really have a nightmare wolf or maybe they don't. They maybe have a blind wolf since they took out Quagmire early and IIRC the dead body was a strong role - maybe this is Ben and they haven't found the SK yet?

We can plan for Benzine not being nightmared - he can announce in advance which wolf will get jailed, so Vash can get an extra vote.

If Benzine is nightmared and the SK is dead, I'm not sure that we have any chance. So hopefully the nightmare wolf thing is a bluff.

Unlike Alu, I'm not worried about saying that because surely they can figure that strategy out for themselves.

 

[Jawneh]

Whatever Kelly is doing is only ever going to work for the SK if the wolves aren't confident who the SK is. If they miss the lynch, then the scenario goes along with what Kelly is saying.

The weirdest thing really is the no kills from the SK. Which just makes it even more likely it's Vash and that much more likely him voting with the town the tie the lynch for no kills. It's his story line! I'm not the only one who has thought of this for sure. Kat just mentioned it too and Vash is amazing enough to do it.

For the town to win though, we... might have to let the wolves kill the SK, Benzine kill one of the wolves tonight, then vote off the rest during the day. This does assume wolves don't have a second nightmare like Kelly is alluding.
It's 4-3-1 now.
4-3 after lynch
4-2 after benzine
3-2 wolf kill
3-1 lynch
2-1 wolf kill
2-0 win

We know who the wolves are and who the townies are.

If we force a tie:
4-3-1 after tie
4-2-1 after Benzine
3-2-1 after wolf
3-1-1 after lynch
2-1-1 after wolf
Stalemate situation. (Vash pacifist achievement route?!)


Any of that make sense?

 

[A Vaguely Ambiguous Username]

They maybe really have a nightmare wolf or maybe they don't.

Benzine said he was nightmared last night.

 

[Jawneh]

Though now that I laid that out err... I dont know what the wolves will choose to do.

 

[A Vaguely Ambiguous Username]

Did anyone else ever claim to be nightmared throughout the entire game? The nightmare wolf has 2 uses and we only know of one of them. They wouldn't need a second nightmare wolf here.

 

[Local Hero]

Lol thumbs up from Kat and down from me. I didn't recall at least

 

[Kat]

Did anyone else ever claim to be nightmared throughout the entire game? The nightmare wolf has 2 uses and we only know of one of them. They wouldn't need a second nightmare wolf here.

And there's no restriction on using it on the same person two nights in a row.

 

[Kat]

Lol thumbs up from Kat and down from me. I didn't recall at least

I was agreeing that no second nightmare wolf is needed.

 

[A Vaguely Ambiguous Username]

Lol thumbs up from Kat and down from me. I didn't recall at least

I think she was agreeing with the latter part of my statement and you were saying no one else claimed to be nightmared.

 

[Jawneh]

I think I need to see what happens if the second nightmare is true?

4-3-1 now
4-3 after lynch
4-3 no benzine kill
3-3 wolf kill, they win.

Did anyone else ever claim to be nightmared throughout the entire game? The nightmare wolf has 2 uses and we only know of one of them. They wouldn't need a second nightmare wolf here.

None that I've seen. Kelly was the first to mention it. Then Benzine later, so definitely there's one and they're using a second charge of that on someone.

 

[Benzine]

Ooops haha

 

[Smacktard]

Okay one last post because I can't help myself lmao. Feel free to explain how I'm wrong:

I think you missed a crucial step in here but I don't feel like explaining it again since it makes you less likely to win lmao.

Three scenarios:

Tie vote SK is nightmared Benzine kills either a wolf or SK Wolves kill either Benzine or Vash 2W v 1 SK v 4 Town OR 3W v 3 Town Town wins OR wolves win.

SK votes with wolves SK is nightmared 3 town left (night kill and lynch) 2/3W v 1SK v 3 Town Town choses victor between wolves and SK.

SK votes with wolves, but wolves betray SK 3W v 5 Town Night: 1 wolf killed, 1 town killed 2W v 4 town Wolves lose.

 

[A Vaguely Ambiguous Username]

Okay one last post because I can't help myself lmao. Feel free to explain how I'm wrong:


Three scenarios:

Tie vote SK is nightmared Benzine kills either a wolf or SK Wolves kill either Benzine or Vash 2W v 1 SK v 4 Town OR 3W v 3 Town Town wins OR wolves win.

SK votes with wolves SK is nightmared 3 town left (night kill and lynch) 2/3W v 1SK v 3 Town Town choses victor between wolves and SK.

SK votes with wolves, but wolves betray SK 3W v 5 Town Night: 1 wolf killed, 1 town killed 2W v 4 town Wolves lose.

Scenario 4:

You convince the SK to vote "with you" but vote for the SK. Nightmare the warden. No night kill of a wolf.

There are only 4 townies now, that would lead to 3 townies tomorrow after the night kill.

 

[A Vaguely Ambiguous Username]

I think your issue is that you believe more players are alive than there actually are.

 

[A Vaguely Ambiguous Username]

Everyone go with Kelly's plan so we can get a 5th townie alive!