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Zell Wolf Zell Wolf 20 - Day 3

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Smacktard

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Ancle Suck said:
You convince the SK to vote "with you" but vote for the SK. Nightmare the warden. No night kill of a wolf
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If we nightmare the Warden and the SK double crosses us, we lose. It doesn't make sense as a play. It would be in our best interest to either tie or work WITH the SK.
Ancle Suck said:
I think your issue is that you believe more players are alive than there actually are.
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I conflated Vash's vote with an extra player when doing the maths. Yes, I am that dumb 🤕 Regardless, even if you adjust the numbers, the logic is still the same: townies will have to decide the game if we work with the SK. If we don't work together, townies win the game.
 
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VashTheStampede said:
Nah, I know Vash pretty well and he is  not that guy.
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If you're not the SK, you'd have to be a blind wolf to read blue, making Ben's fake claim of you being a townie. Either he did it blind or the two of your are wolves and planned that.

That would then make Kelly the SK.

Though this all does come together as the day ends. If Vash is truthful, there's a good chance we get a tie. If Vash is not being truthful, then the wolves lynch someone.

Unless the wolves screw it up again that is.


I'm also now piecing it together that if you're all believing Vash to be the preacher, you're then all saying I'm a wolf or solo as there's no more townie slots.
 
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Smacktard said:
Regardless, even if you adjust the numbers, the logic is still the same: townies will have to decide the game if we work with the SK. If we don't work together, townies win the game.
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Night! But still you're missing the part where we were saying you were trying to convince the SK to vote not with the town and then you all vote for the SK instead. That puts the vote on the SK at 6, the townie vote on Ben at 5, and the SK voting for Benzine at 1.


But if we're voting for Ben and he goes bye bye and is the nightmare wolf then the rest of the plan falls through and the SK can burn us all in celebration over night.
 
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Ancle Suck said:
Scenario 4:

You convince the SK to vote "with you" but vote for the SK. Nightmare the warden. No night kill of a wolf.

There are only 4 townies now, that would lead to 3 townies tomorrow after the night kill.
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Let's assume this is the real plan, the SK does tie the vote, and the wolves nightmare Benzine. I'm also assuming the fourth wolf is a blind one, so they won't have any more powers to use. It's admittedly a best case scenario, but it's plausible.

We still have three wolves tomorrow, and be down to three townies after whoever they kill, so we couldn't vote out the SK. Instead we vote a wolf, which we should be able to do successfully. They kill a townie at night again, knock us down to two townies - we still have to lynch a wolf.

So the SK can still definitely win in that scenario.

Now let's assume the wolves are being legit, but the SK doesn't trust them and ties the vote. They nightmare the SK, so he can't kill. We kill a wolf through Benzine. They presumably kill Vash since Benzine will have already used his killing power. So it's two wolves, three townies (and votes), and the SK. We can't lynch the SK that day (wolves kill at night and win), so we have to go after a wolf. SK can join us or tie it. Either way, they can do their thing that night without worry.

I'm not seeing the benefit of the SK voting with the wolves.
 
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Jawneh said:
I'm also now piecing it together that if you're all believing Vash to be the preacher, you're then all saying I'm a wolf or solo as there's no more townie slots.
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I'm not necessarily believing him over you, but it's all moot if he's lying because then the wolves can lynch the SK and win.

Jawneh said:
That would then make Kelly the SK
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This is an interesting thought. It would explain why he told the wolves to react too.
 
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Ancle Suck said:
Quick, everyone who might be the SK react with different reactions to confuse the wolves into who they should vote for and then everyone just vote for Ben who is hopefully the nightmare wolf so he can be gone and the SK can kill everyone tonight and rid us of the nightmare that is this town
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Except it won't kill Ben unless a wolf doesn't vote.
 
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Bollocks.

I've literally been trying to craft a post since like noon, kept second-guessing myself, and then rewriting what I had entirely as people respond with new points. 0 productivity. I'm too ADHD for this game.

Yes you're of course right about my bullshit Violinist claim. I can't muster the focus to keep trying to argue my way out of stuff anymore, so for my sanity's sake, I'm the Arsonist. I've been trying to douse all of you at once for a blaze of glory, but kind of fucked myself by picking 6 and 9 the first night, thereby dousing dimmerwit and a dead body. I think I only have 4 of you wet at this point, so I know I screwed it up again just like Alchemist.

I've been trying to make heads or tails of all the shit Kelly keeps posting claiming how there's a possibility I still get a win here but I don't see it. While I haven't read all those in depth, I assume Benzine's just going to kill me overnight if I don't get lynched right now. If I die now it's over because the wolves get a kill overnight unless Local/Benzine blocks it and make it 3v3. If you kill the literal admitted wolf today (Smacktard) that's 4v2v1, though I assume I die overnight making it 4v2 tomorrow. If you kill a villager by mistake today then it's over today, too. If I vote in line with the wolves today, sure some villager dies making it 3v3v1 but then wolves don't win unless I die so I'll just get lynched tomorrow... I think if I vote with the wolves it's a gamble whether I have all of them doused already.

:shrug
 
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Ben said:
Bollocks.

I've literally been trying to craft a post since like noon, kept second-guessing myself, and then rewriting what I had entirely as people respond with new points. 0 productivity. I'm too ADHD for this game.

Yes you're of course right about my bullshit Violinist claim. I can't muster the focus to keep trying to argue my way out of stuff anymore, so for my sanity's sake, I'm the Arsonist. I've been trying to douse all of you at once for a blaze of glory, but kind of fucked myself by picking 6 and 9 the first night, thereby dousing dimmerwit and a dead body. I think I only have 4 of you wet at this point, so I know I screwed it up again just like Alchemist.

I've been trying to make heads or tails of all the shit Kelly keeps posting claiming how there's a possibility I still get a win here but I don't see it. While I haven't read all those in depth, I assume Benzine's just going to kill me overnight if I don't get lynched right now. If I die now it's over because the wolves get a kill overnight unless Local/Benzine blocks it and make it 3v3. If you kill the literal admitted wolf today (Smacktard) that's 4v2v1, though I assume I die overnight making it 4v2 tomorrow. If you kill a villager by mistake today then it's over today, too. If I vote in line with the wolves today, sure some villager dies making it 3v3v1 but then wolves don't win unless I die so I'll just get lynched tomorrow... I think if I vote with the wolves it's a gamble whether I have all of them doused already.

:shrug
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Hm. If you really were the SK then why would the wolves follow through wasting the shadow today instead of just letting you get lynched, and then do the shadow tomorrow for an easy lynch on a townie while letting the nightmare take care of Benzine tonight (if they went by the Kelly math where they didn't realize they would have just won the game by voting you out and killing anyone tonight).
 
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Jawneh said:
Hey Zell, I think you forgot that I tagged Tommy last night. He can come back tomorrow.

And THEN we kill him.
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Should have brought back Quagmire to reunite the couple. I hear that would have also resulted in Jon coming back to life with joy. But we'd all be townies and it'd be a great victory for everyone.
 
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Ancle Suck said:
Hm. If you really were the SK then why would the wolves follow through wasting the shadow today instead of just letting you get lynched, and then do the shadow tomorrow for an easy lynch on a townie while letting the nightmare take care of Benzine tonight (if they went by the Kelly math where they didn't realize they would have just won the game by voting you out and killing anyone tonight).
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I can only assume to make you all double-down on voting for me, as nobody wants to switch after the shadow is dropped. Once you'd all caught on to my Violinist fuck-up they'd jump on the chance to ensure I died. For all I know, Vash is the other wolf and he knew right from the start my Violinist claim was bogus. I guess the only way to test that though is to see if he really has an extra vote, if I align my vote with the town.

But if they had the shadow wolf left I don't see why they wouldn't have used it. If it works and I die today, they don't need another shadow to save for tomorrow as they win overnight.
 
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