VTS Mafia VTS Mafia Night 3/Day 3

[Cole]

So when Alu as confirmed as Consigliere and therefore Cole is confirmed as Gumshoe (unless he somehow really is omniscient or incredibly lucky - not happening) who are we taking to trial before the Honourable Judge @Local Hero tomorrow?

who would YOU like to see, Tubby.

 

[canadaguy]

So ummm, I guess I'm free from jury duty then?


Question @VashTheStampede are we still entitled to a daily stipend?

 

[Local Hero]

So ummm, I guess I'm free from jury duty then?


Question @VashTheStampede are we still entitled to a daily stipend?

 

[Local Hero]

So when Alu as confirmed as Consigliere and therefore Cole is confirmed as Gumshoe (unless he somehow really is omniscient or incredibly lucky - not happening) who are we taking to trial before the Honourable Judge @Local Hero tomorrow?

 

[canadaguy]

 

[Local Hero]

 

[Tubby23]

who would YOU like to see, Tubby.

Personally I've voted for Zell and would like to see what he has to say.

After TD, he has given the most disagreement about what you're saying while to me personally 90% of what you say makes sense to me logically.

I found his last post also a bit suspicious where he encouraged LH not to do what he just did and instead keep having the town play slow. Which as you've pointed out will advantage the Mafia as they slow play their way through us picking us off one by one.

 

[Joseph Snapple]

Before any shenanigans happen between now and the time I wake up:

@VashTheStampede, I judge that @Alu shall die by electric chair. May god have mercy on his soul.

 

[Cole]

Personally I've voted for Zell and would like to see what he has to say.

After TD, he has given the most disagreement about what you're saying while to me personally 90% of what you say makes sense to me logically.

I found his last post also a bit suspicious where he encouraged LH not to do what he just did and instead keep having the town play slow. Which as you've pointed out will advantage the Mafia as they slow play their way through us picking us off one by one.

I am not convinced on Zell. he's definitely among the highest on my list, and he's already role claimed regular townie about 45 times, so I don't think we'll learn any thing new from his trial, at least not from him.

but shortkut and Tubby seem to wanna try him out.

I asked TD once how he felt about going out on trial. it worked SPLENDIDLY last time

Zell, would you like to be on trial?

 

[Cole]

should I survive my trial, I can also just check Zell you know?

and we have s confirmed vigilante somewhere. we can always just put him down the next night.

 

[Benzine]

local why do you get all the cool roles

 

[Zell 17]

Zell, would you like to be on trial?

Not particularly. I’m not sure what I can say that I haven’t already and I’m not particularly sure what the evidence is against me.

I don’t think it’s a criminal error to kill me off or anything, right now it’s 9 town vs 3 mafia assuming Alu is a baddie. And we still have the vigilante.

I still think Local could have afforded to wait for several reasons:

1) See if the mafia want to use their lawyer to get Alu off and use up that power / confirm the last evil role.
2) See what people on the jury would vote to convict Cole and who would vote to exonerate Alu.
3) If Alu was going to die by conviction anyways, what’s the point of using the judge power?
4) If Alu was NOT going to die by conviction, he can still use his power this phase and we lose no time, but gain a LOT more information.

 

[Zell 17]

Hey @VashTheStampede I assume the reason that Cole got a night check last night was because he sent his action to you before he was jailed by whatever role jailed him?

 

[Local Hero]

Not particularly. I’m not sure what I can say that I haven’t already and I’m not particularly sure what the evidence is against me.

I don’t think it’s a criminal error to kill me off or anything, right now it’s 9 town vs 3 mafia assuming Alu is a baddie. And we still have the vigilante.

I still think Local could have afforded to wait for several reasons:

1) See if the mafia want to use their lawyer to get Alu off and use up that power / confirm the last evil role.
2) See what people on the jury would vote to convict Cole and who would vote to exonerate Alu.
3) If Alu was going to die by conviction anyways, what’s the point of using the judge power?
4) If Alu was NOT going to die by conviction, he can still use his power this phase and we lose no time, but gain a LOT more information.

I did it because I didn't want to risk mob releasing Alu. Sure we apparently have a vigilante, but we can't guarantee they live long enough to keep being useful.

If Alu is not guilty, we need to know that before the day is over so we can, presumably, switch votes on Cole

Basically, trying to give us more info and more time to use that info.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Before any shenanigans happen between now and the time I wake up:

@VashTheStampede, I judge that @Alu shall die by electric chair. May god have mercy on his soul.

Alu has been killed by the Judge

He was the Consigliere.

(my autocorrect has that word because I'm italian)

 

[Local Hero]

 

[Local Hero]

Vash beat me by like 5 seconds! You jerk

 

[Cole]

who could have foreseen such a drastic turn of events!

 

[canadaguy]

 

[Local Hero]

Just for the most redundant record, the proves Cole's innocence.

Alu's execution was so badly botched, I've gone into early retirement and have hung up my robes.

 

[Joseph Snapple]

Well, that settles that, then.

Not guilty for Cole.

 

[Cole]

NOW THEN TO THE NEXT ORDER OF BUSINESS.

I think so far all the jury votes for Alu and I came in VERY quickly. but now that EVERYONE is on the same page, maybe those jury votes need to be looked at.

edit: save for Snapple who decided to wait until the judge had ruled.

 

[Local Hero]

Alu's Jury
Zell
Ants
canadaguy
shortkut
Fire Queen

Cole's Jury
Local Hero
Jawneh
Tubby
Benzine
Joseph Snapple

In sequential order
Local - Cole not guilty
Fire Queen - Alu guilty
Tubby - Cole not guilty
Alu fries
Joseph - Cole not guilty

My apologies if I missed someone, I'm on mobile

 

[Zell 17]

NOW THEN TO THE NEXT ORDER OF BUSINESS.

I think so far all the jury votes for Alu and I came in VERY quickly. but now that EVERYONE is on the same page, maybe those jury votes need to be looked at.

edit: save for Snapple who decided to wait until the judge had ruled.

Yeah except there barely any votes on Alu because the judge killed him nearly immediately

 

[Tubby23]

Alu's Jury
Zell
Ants
canadaguy
shortkut
Fire Queen

Cole's Jury
Local Hero
Jawneh
Tubby
Benzine
Joseph Snapple

In sequential order
Local - Cole not guilty
Fire Queen - Alu guilty
Tubby - Cole not guilty
Alu fries
Joseph - Cole not guilty

My apologies if I missed someone, I'm on mobile

Also Jawneh was the first Cole not guilty vote I believe

 

[Cole]

I thought there was a second Alu guilty vote.

 

[canadaguy]

NOW THEN TO THE NEXT ORDER OF BUSINESS.

I think so far all the jury votes for Alu and I came in VERY quickly. but now that EVERYONE is on the same page, maybe those jury votes need to be looked at.

edit: save for Snapple who decided to wait until the judge had ruled.

I will state that I was going to vote to find Alu guilty, but twitchy Judge Hero beat me to the punch.

Me saying that at this point probably has the value of a fart in a tornado but its true.

I know at least 1 player knows I'm honest

 

[canadaguy]

Attention: Free Gabagool

 

[Joseph Snapple]

Eh, i think local did the right thing. It's a battle of attrition and potentially having to waste more time/resources on someone that was almost certainly (and, at this point, very obviously *was*) mafia would have been disastrous.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Attention: Free Gabagool

View attachment 2296

Ooh gabagool I'm in

 

[Tubby23]

 

[shortkut]

Alu's Jury
Zell
Ants
canadaguy
shortkut
Fire Queen

Cole's Jury
Local Hero
Jawneh
Tubby
Benzine
Joseph Snapple

In sequential order
Local - Cole not guilty
Fire Queen - Alu guilty
Tubby - Cole not guilty
Alu fries
Joseph - Cole not guilty

My apologies if I missed someone, I'm on mobile

Wait, there were two juries? I thought it was one jury for everyone

 

[Local Hero]

Yes, lol

 

[Jawneh]

You know what, I'm voting CanadaGuy. Lets put a different face up there.

 

[canadaguy]

At this point we are better off putting mafia members on trial

 

[canadaguy]

Ooh gabagool I'm in

GOTTEM


Ahh shit Vash! Now I gotta reset the trap...... I mean the free gabagool and everything

 

[Local Hero]

Canadaguy would never lie to me, so let me try something.

Canadaguy, are you a townie?

 

[Zell 17]

So I went through the old games and looked at every single town vote where no player had been EXPLICITLY checked evil by a seer. Results:

FQ1
Day 1 - 3/14 Townie (Warp)
Day 2- 3/12 Townie (shortkut)
Day 3 - 3/10 Townie (Jawneh)
Day 4 - 3/8 Townie (The Flame)

Zell4
Day 3 - 3/9 Townie (Tubby23)
Day 5 - 1/3 Evil (Raposa)

FQ2
Day 2 - 3/18 Townie (Jawneh)
Day 5 - 1/8 Townie (Fool's Requiem)

Vash
Day 1 - 4/14 Townie (TD)

The fraction is how many evils were left / total town, aka the chance we would have of getting an evil if we had just chosen randomly. So out of 9 of these votes so far we’ve found ONE evil based on our “gut feeling”. If we had just gone by random number draw we should average more than double that.

The verdict: We’re fucking awful at this. IMO, the reason for that is the players that we find “the most suspicious” are the ones that are stirring shit up, but that’s not how the evils have played in any game so far. The townspeople are the ones lacking information and thus are pushing each other trying to figure things out. The evils don’t want to be caught pushing a townie, but the townies feel like they have to push EVERYONE because they don’t have any information.

That being said, I think we need to revisit our assumptions on what makes someone suspicious. Pushing people and asking questions isn’t it. Trying to blend in is. There is some truth to “the third person to vote to lynch someone” is evil. So who are the people out here pushing people? shortkut. Me. Cole. TD was.

The people blending? Fire Queen and Benzine are, but it’s also consistent with their typical strategy. canadaguy isn’t pushing as much as he usually does. Jawneh to me reads “blending in” more than anyone else in this game besides Joseph Snapple, but it’s his first game.

 

[shortkut]

So I went through the old games and looked at every single town vote where no player had been EXPLICITLY checked evil by a seer. Results:

FQ1
Day 1 - 3/14 Townie (Warp)
Day 2- 3/12 Townie (shortkut)
Day 3 - 3/10 Townie (Jawneh)
Day 4 - 3/8 Townie (The Flame)

Zell4
Day 3 - 3/9 Townie (Tubby23)
Day 5 - 1/3 Evil (Raposa)

FQ2
Day 2 - 3/18 Townie (Jawneh)
Day 5 - 1/8 Townie (Fool's Requiem)

Vash
Day 1 - 4/14 Townie (TD)

The fraction is how many evils were left / total town, aka the chance we would have of getting an evil if we had just chosen randomly. So out of 9 of these votes so far we’ve found ONE evil based on our “gut feeling”. If we had just gone by random number draw we should average more than double that.

The verdict: We’re fucking awful at this. IMO, the reason for that is the players that we find “the most suspicious” are the ones that are stirring shit up, but that’s not how the evils have played in any game so far. The townspeople are the ones lacking information and thus are pushing each other trying to figure things out. The evils don’t want to be caught pushing a townie, but the townies feel like they have to push EVERYONE because they don’t have any information.

That being said, I think we need to revisit our assumptions on what makes someone suspicious. Pushing people and asking questions isn’t it. Trying to blend in is. There is some truth to “the third person to vote to lynch someone” is evil. So who are the people out here pushing people? shortkut. Me. Cole. TD was.

The people blending? Fire Queen and Benzine are, but it’s also consistent with their typical strategy. canadaguy isn’t pushing as much as he usually does. Jawneh to me reads “blending in” more than anyone else in this game besides Joseph Snapple, but it’s his first game.

So are you saying the odds of Cole seering evil Alu is low so maybe he is mafia sacrificing a teammate? Alu did just buy a house, so maybe he needed to step back from the game and this gave the perfect opportunity for this play?

Either way, keeping my vote on you like I have since day 1

 

[shortkut]

GOTTEM


Ahh shit Vash! Now I gotta reset the trap...... I mean the free gabagool and everything

Just skip the first step and just activate your trap like tubby did. Wolves hate this one trick

 

[Zell 17]

So are you saying the odds of Cole seering evil Alu is low so maybe he is mafia sacrificing a teammate? Alu did just buy a house, so maybe he needed to step back from the game and this gave the perfect opportunity for this play?

Either way, keeping my vote on you like I have since day 1

Uh…what? I didn’t say anything similar to that at all.

I’m saying that WITHOUT explicit seer info, the town is god awful at picking “suspicious” people to vote for. They are more than twice as bad as RANDOM CHANCE. And I made a hypothesis for why that might be. But feel free to push the town success rate lower

 

[shortkut]

Uh…what? I didn’t say anything similar to that at all.

I’m saying that WITHOUT explicit seer info, the town is god awful at picking “suspicious” people to vote for. They are more than twice as bad as RANDOM CHANCE. And I made a hypothesis for why that might be. But feel free to keep the town hit rate at the bottom.

Who asked for the vigilante to take out a townie? Not me. It’s stupid to use the vigilante without being confident. Would have been smart to save it for Alu in case the mafia has a lawyer and got him off

 

[Cole]

So are you saying the odds of Cole seering evil Alu is low so maybe he is mafia sacrificing a teammate? Alu did just buy a house, so maybe he needed to step back from the game and this gave the perfect opportunity for this play?

Either way, keeping my vote on you like I have since day 1

I wouldn't sell out a team mate though, not unless they were already found.

Who asked for the vigilante to take out a townie? Not me. It’s stupid to use the vigilante without being confident. Would have been smart to save it for Alu in case the mafia has a lawyer and got him off

I did. because the town needs aggression, we went through this. we needed to figure out if we had a vigilante or it was game over

 

[shortkut]

I wouldn't sell out a team mate though, not unless they were already found.

If Alu said he basically needs to drop out, then it would be stupid for you to not agree to use it to your advantage. Alu literally put up no defense, not even a superficial one. Notice how you used specific words, “sell out”, Alu volunteering to be a sacrificial lamb is not selling out. its impressive how you can say one thing and mean something completely different, all without lying

 

[Zell 17]

To me the likelihood of Cole being mafia is near zero. A few reasons:

A) It would be foolish for the mafia to sell a teammate here when there is next to no need to establish credibility to win.
B) No other Gumshoe has even hinted at existing or questioned that Cole might be the gumshoe, I guess except shortkut. And at this point if they could do so, they should because then half the mafia is down.
C) The mafia did not kill anyone last night, which means they likely attacked Cole who was jailed. If Cole was mafia the mafia could theoretically have withheld their attack, but again it's a foolish strategy to sell one of their own AND withhold a free townie kill (and potentially a special role killed) when it's a pretty straightforward win to just....hide and attack since there were no other informers.

 

[Zell 17]

If Alu needed to leave the game he could just...not reply to the thread. He doesn't have to be sold. Hell FQ survived all the way to the endgame unchecked while posting like once a day last game.

 

[canadaguy]

Who jailed Cole?

 

[canadaguy]

Canadaguy would never lie to me, so let me try something.

Canadaguy, are you a townie?

100% good guy

 

[Cole]

If Alu said he basically needs to drop out, then it would be stupid for you to not agree to use it to your advantage. Alu literally put up no defense, not even a superficial one. Notice how you used specific words, “sell out”, Alu volunteering to be a sacrificial lamb is not selling out. its impressive how you can say one thing and mean something completely different, all without lying

"every one already made up their mind" said Alu, moments before his demise. he chose to put up no fight. it's a bit of a stretch to use that as some kind of fact.

I don't sell out my team mates.

or point out when some tries to role claim without being overt.

Who jailed Cole?

a question we would all like answered.

if it's a bad cop, find a way to signal me, and I'll get you on our side.

based on the rules of this game, you could even just DM me and I'll give us +1 townie.

if you're the good cop, keep doing what you're doing.

 

[Zell 17]

Who jailed Cole?

Probably the good cop. I'm guessing Cole knows who if this is the case.

It could be the Bad Cop, but I'm not convinced a Bad Cop exists. If they do, they can no longer be recruited to the mafia if they haven't been already. So they would be playing for the town or themselves. I know Cole thinks the Bad Cop killed on night 1, but I'm not sure why they would do that.