VTS Mafia VTS Mafia Night 1/Day 1

[Kat]

Orrrr it's just a pretty common play.

Also.

I vote shortkut.

Posting and not voting Ants is suspicious.

I think he said he wasn't going to before the game started.

 

[TD]

 

[Zell 17]

I’m townie a f. That’s all I’m gonna say today.

 

[VashTheStampede]

I’m townie a f. That’s all I’m gonna say today.

Sir this is a City, you must commute.

 

[shortkut]

because I think it's an extremely safe assumption to assume they're both members of the town, and honestly, odds are one or both didn't even have a role.

Question: would the cleaner know the roles that are hidden or would they be in the dark too. It’s certainly interesting that you’re pretty sure both didn’t have roles

 

[Kat]

I’m townie a f. That’s all I’m gonna say today.

I must've missed the fool on the role list.

 

[Zell 17]

Oh that and the mafia would be fools to not use confusion as early as possible, you aren’t guaranteed any future uses and the game is less complex the longer it goes. Maximize confusion.

 

[TD]

Question: would the cleaner know the roles that are hidden or would they be in the dark too. It’s certainly interesting that you’re pretty sure both didn’t have roles

I'm assuming it is unknown because it doesn't specify. Unlike confusion wolf.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Question: would the cleaner know the roles that are hidden or would they be in the dark too. It’s certainly interesting that you’re pretty sure both didn’t have roles

Cleaner would get the info, since he's responsible for obscuring the crime scene(s).

 

[Kat]

Question: would the cleaner know the roles that are hidden or would they be in the dark too. It’s certainly interesting that you’re pretty sure both didn’t have roles

@VashTheStampede can you answer this?

 

[Kat]

Nevermind...

 

[Zell 17]

Can the mafia chat during the day i.e. has cleaner told everyone the roles?

 

[TD]

Oh. Well then.

@VashTheStampede
Can we edit that into cleaner description so those who miss that post know?

 

[Cole]

Oh that and the mafia would be fools to not use confusion as early as possible, you aren’t guaranteed any future uses and the game is less complex the longer it goes. Maximize confusion.

that is true in your games, that is not true in this game. the only justifiable use is if they double killed. otherwise it's a waste when not every one has roles. this game is slower by default.

the only way you "aren't guaranteed future uses" is if you die. in which case, don't die. especially if there is a mob lawyer to spring now.

 

[Zell 17]

Serious question: can I get the odds of there being a dirty cop? Did you just flip a coin?

 

[Zell 17]

that is true in your games, that is not true in this game. the only justifiable use is if they double killed. otherwise it's a waste when not every one has roles. this game is slower by default.

the only way you "aren't guaranteed future uses" is if you die. in which case, don't die. especially if there is a mob lawyer to spring now.

Vigilante bro

 

[TD]

Vigilante bro

Peacemaker is that you?

 

[Zell 17]

Peacemaker is that you?

If you are asking me what I did last night, the answer is jack shit

 

[TD]

 

[shortkut]

I think he said he wasn't going to before the game started.

Thank you for reading and paying attention. Out of respect for vash, I was not going to do that

 

[Cole]

Vigilante bro

there's no guarantee there's a vigilante, bro.

which is another reason not to use it until there is confirmation.

 

[shortkut]

Vote @Zell 17 for trial by jury

Did I do that right?

 

[Zell 17]

that is true in your games, that is not true in this game. the only justifiable use is if they double killed. otherwise it's a waste when not every one has roles. this game is slower by default.

The confusion effect is the same regardless of whether the people you kill have roles or not. The whole idea of confusion is that evils can get kills without shrinking the space for which evils can hide. Also, that is a very definitive statement on "what is true" in this game that has so far been played for...3 hours.

 

[Zell 17]

there's no guarantee there's a vigilante, bro.

which is another reason not to use it until there is confirmation.

I mean, 80% is pretty high.

 

[TD]

Great now I can't vote for Zell without seeming like it's a bandwagon.

 

[Kat]

The confusion effect is the same regardless of whether the people you kill have roles or not. The whole idea of confusion is that evils can get kills without shrinking the space for which evils can hide. Also, that is a very definitive statement on "what is true" in this game that has so far been played for...3 hours.

Yeah, I'm getting pretty suspicious of Cole. I feel like he's leading us astray when he should know better. But he's always suspicious so

 

[Kat]

For all we know he's trying to subtly feed the mobsters bad strategy or make them second guess being aggressive.

 

[TD]

I wouldn't call it subtle.

 

[Cole]

The confusion effect is the same regardless of whether the people you kill have roles or not. The whole idea of confusion is that evils can get kills without shrinking the space for which evils can hide. Also, that is a very definitive statement on "what is true" in this game that has so far been played for...3 hours.

I appreciate the explanation on a super simple concept that I've already used in one of these games as if you're explaining a grand strategy.

and yes, it is a grand statement. because they're two very different games, and just because it works in yours doesn't mean it works in another.

here, I can mansplain too. see: there aren't as many roles in this game, there are less chances for the wolves to be immediately found out, killed, or defended against. therefore there is no "rush" to do as much damage or cause as much confusion as possible when the game should almost certainly last longer by default.

I mean, 80% is pretty high.

and still not guaranteed!

 

[Cole]

For all we know he's trying to subtly feed the mobsters bad strategy or make them second guess being aggressive.

no, he's just wrong. blind aggression doesn't always work, it works less in a game like this.

 

[TD]

Yeah..

I vote Cole.

 

[Kat]

I wouldn't call it subtle.

Fair but you know how easily people can be influenced. Idk, it does seem weird.

 

[Cole]

Yeah..

I vote Cole.

weren't you just worried about a bandwagon?

are you under the impression that just because no one voted it's not a bandwagon? just tacking on a vote to other people's suspicions *is* a bandwagon.

 

[Kat]

I feel bad voting Cole because he always gets picked on the first day.

But he did nearly get me lynched the first day in the last (serious) game...

 

[Cole]

I feel bad voting Cole because he always gets picked on the first day.

But he did nearly get me lynched the first day in the last (serious) game...

vote for me all you like if you're suspicious. I don't care if I die first day. the town will care, but I wont.

 

[TD]

weren't you just worried about a bandwagon?

are you under the impression that just because no one voted it's not a bandwagon? just tacking on a vote to other people's suspicions *is* a bandwagon.

I mean to be fair, I voted you before anyone else has cast "suspicion" on you.

This whole grandiose "it's my playbook" thing is either trying to claim a basic strategy was truly only something you could come up or trying to antagonize people into defending the use of a basic strategy.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Serious question: can I get the odds of there being a dirty cop? Did you just flip a coin?

What the hell do you take me for?

I rolled a D20 and based it on even/odd.

 

[Zell 17]

Here's my attempt to math on what do we know:

Fixed villain roles:
The Don
The Button Man
The Cleaner

Possible at 50% each:
Mob Lawyer
Consigliere

Fixed town:
6x boring-ass townies

One of these is missing 20% chance:
Lawyer
Gumshoe
Good Cop
Vigilante
Judge

Possible:
1x Dirty Cop OR 1x boring townie at ????% chance

So who got killed last night? If the villains have a Consigliere, almost certainly one of the special roles (Consigliere has a 40% chance of nailing one right off the bat with a check. If (s)he misses, then they kill two random and have a 5/9 * 4/8 chance of hitting two more townies. All that put together means consigliere hits a townie 60%, then they kill two townies is 16% we still have a "major" role alive.

Even without a consigliere, just blind attacking it's 2/3 chance they hit a special role. Given 50% chance of consigliere in the game, our "expected" chance outcome that all 4 major town roles are alive here is around 25%. So what does that mean? The first evil on stand will likely claim the dead special role. There would be nobody to counterclaim or attempt to put pressure on the claim.

 

[Cole]

I mean to be fair, I voted you before anyone else has cast "suspicion" on you.

This whole grandiose "it's my playbook" thing is either trying to claim a basic strategy was truly only something you could come up or trying to antagonize people into defending the use of a basic strategy.

It's neither. It's not something only I would come up with, it's just something I *DID* come up with, like 4 games ago at this point. Prior to that the wolves were meandering around waiting for things to happen in a game wrought with seers, protectors and killers. Aggression is needed in a game where 37 seers could check you every night.

That's not the case here. By all means, defend your strategy of burning confusion that gives us more information about who the wolves are.

 

[Zell 17]

no, he's just wrong. blind aggression doesn't always work, it works less in a game like this.

"Blind aggression" you mean....evils trying to kill townspeople? Yeah I agree they definitely should NOT do that. Evil team, take notes from Cole please.

 

[Cole]

"Blind aggression" you mean....evils trying to kill townspeople? Yeah I agree they definitely should NOT do that. Evil team, take notes from Cole please.

You're being intentionally stupid now.

We're not talking about about them killing, not even a little bit is that the topic of discussion.

You're very adamant about defending this strategy of the mob.

 

[Kat]

Maybe instead we should put someone being quiet on the hot seat it's a lot easier to fly under the radar in this game, especially if townies do start pointing fingers at each other at the beginning of the game.

The first evil on stand will likely claim the dead special role. There would be nobody to counterclaim or attempt to put pressure on the claim.

I had this same thought. It also makes Cole trying to convince us we should assume no roles were taken out extra suspicious.

 

[TD]

It's neither. It's not something only I would come up with, it's just something I *DID* come up with, like 4 games ago at this point. Prior to that the wolves were meandering around waiting for things to happen in a game wrought with seers, protectors and killers. Aggression is needed in a game where 37 seers could check you every night.

That's not the case here. By all means, defend your strategy of burning confusion that gives us more information about who the wolves are.

There are also two roles (with more to come) that can be role claimed come trial that only the mafia knows unless our seer outs themself.

 

[Cole]

I had this same thought. It also makes Cole trying to convince us we should assume no roles were taken out extra suspicious.

just bad reads abound in this thread so far.

 

[VashTheStampede]

I apologize for having to continue to explain minor rule issues, I'll try to have things more written out in the future.

If the Mob has a Consigliere, they cannot kill the same person they investigate in the same night.

 

[Cole]

There are also two roles (with more to come) that can be role claimed come trial that only the mafia knows unless our seer outs themself.

Except if they role claim just "townie" theres no one that can dispute it.

 

[Kat]

If the Mob has a Consigliere, they cannot kill the same person they investigate in the same night.

Ooo that's good to know, thanks!

 

[Zell 17]

You're being intentionally stupid now.

We're not talking about about them killing, not even a little bit is that the topic of discussion.

You're very adamant about defending this strategy of the mob.

Using an ability is not really a "strategy". I disagree strongly that the evils are even being aggressive here.

 

[Kat]

Except if they role claim just "townie" theres no one that can dispute it.

Sure, but it's not a very convincing reason to not execute them.

 

[Zell 17]

just bad reads abound in this thread so far.

You could only know if a read was bad if you were evil