VTS Mafia VTS Mafia Night 1/Day 1

[Fire Queen]

everyone calm down

my trap is activated

 

[TD]

I vote Fire Queen.

 

[VashTheStampede]

actually I'm going to take a bold stance here.

this confusion night 0 in THIS game helps the town. there are 5 potential mob roles, and they've just shown us one of them that exists.

@VashTheStampede can town and/or mob roles double up? or is it one each of the 4 from the list of 5?

No double roles in this iteration. Was already kind of complex with the new mechanic so I wanted to keep it a little simpler elsewhere

 

[Kat]

I mean it also doesnt help them as much in this game as it does in Zells though.

because I think it's an extremely safe assumption to assume they're both members of the town, and honestly, odds are one or both didn't even have a role.

this early it doesn't help them as much as they'd like.

we just work under the assumption two normal civis died until were proven otherwise.

Hmm, maybe. (Trigger warning: math incoming. Disclaimer, it's 5 am and I'm only awake because of a nightmare so don't hold it against me if I fuck this up.)
15 players, 4 are mob, so 11 unknown, 5 of which have a special role. If they can't check roles and killed two people blindly, it's 6/11 times 5/10 chance they hit a normal townie twice, which is only 27%. And the odds are even less if they were able to role check. So we should actually assume they did get someone with a role.

 

[TD]

Hmm, maybe. (Trigger warning: math incoming. Disclaimer, it's 5 am and I'm only awake because of a nightmare so don't hold it against me if I fuck this up.)
15 players, 4 are mob, so 11 unknown, 5 of which have a special role. If they can't check roles and killed two people blindly, it's 6/11 times 5/10 chance they hit a normal townie twice, which is only 27%. And the odds are even less if they were able to role check. So we should actually assume they did get someone with a role.

Technically only 4 of the 11 are known to have a special role.

 

[Kat]

Technically only 4 of the 11 are known to have a special role.

Ah yeah that's true, dirty cop is optional.

So 7/11 and 6/10 in the best case scenario of no dirty cop and no mob seer, which is 38%, which is better but still more likely than not one person had a role.

 

[TD]

Sounds like the math agenda to me.

 

[Cole]

Hmm, maybe. (Trigger warning: math incoming. Disclaimer, it's 5 am and I'm only awake because of a nightmare so don't hold it against me if I fuck this up.)
15 players, 4 are mob, so 11 unknown, 5 of which have a special role. If they can't check roles and killed two people blindly, it's 6/11 times 5/10 chance they hit a normal townie twice, which is only 27%. And the odds are even less if they were able to role check. So we should actually assume they did get someone with a role.

correct me if I'm wrong, but that math only works if they are both mob kills that were coordinated among the group, which we can't confirm.

but the vigilante and bad cop would effectively be drawing from the same 6 out to 11.

 

[Kat]

correct me if I'm wrong, but that math only works if they are both mob kills that were coordinated among the group, which we can't confirm.

but the vigilante and bad cop would effectively be drawing from the same 6 out to 11.

Nah, it doesn't matter since they definitely killed two different people.

 

[Kat]

correct me if I'm wrong, but that math only works if they are both mob kills that were coordinated among the group, which we can't confirm.

but the vigilante and bad cop would effectively be drawing from the same 6 out to 11.

Actually the odds are different for them since their pool includes the mob, so even higher they got someone with a role, but I was assuming the mob did both, yeah.

 

[Tubby23]

And a vigilante is potentially taking the 4/15 (26.66%) chance of hitting a mob member if they made a kill based on no info last night.
Do we think someone took that chance?

 

[Cole]

Nah, it doesn't matter since they definitely killed two different people.

math isn't my strong suit, and I don't wanna pull a Ryan, but I was thinking about it more from the position of before the game starts, which since both kills happened at random, means unless they were in a group, they both chose randomly from a pool of 15 numbers.

I'm confusing myself now with numbers, this is not my area.

 

[TD]

And a vigilante is potentially taking the 4/15 (26.66%) chance of hitting a mob member if they made a kill based on no info last night.
Do we think someone took that chance?

I'm kinda cocky so hypothetically speaking if I was the Vigilante I probably would.

I'm definitely not the only one.

 

[Kat]

Okay no more math, it's too early.

 

[TD]

 

[Kat]

math isn't my strong suit, and I don't wanna pull a Ryan, but I was thinking about it more from the position of before the game starts, which since both kills happened at random, means unless they were in a group, they both chose randomly from a pool of 15 numbers.

I'm confusing myself now with numbers, this is not my area.

All right I lied, but this is the last I pinky promise.

Yes, at the start of the game, they do have a chance of hitting the same person so it's the same pool (aside from it including the mob and not including themselves). But since we know they didn't hit the same person, we can exclude that possibility.

 

[TD]

I vote Kat.

You said no more math.

 

[Kat]

I vote Kat.

You said no more math.

I deserve this.

 

[Kat]

All right let's do something fun instead: Cole said what he'd do if he were playing the mob. What would your play be if it were you? Would you use abilities the first night or keep your cards close to your chest and wait for the best moment?

 

[Cole]

All right let's do something fun instead: Cole said what he'd do if he were playing the mob. What would your play be if it were you? Would you use abilities the first night or keep your cards close to your chest and wait for the best moment?

no I didn't, I said what I wouldn't do.

 

[Kat]

no I didn't, I said what I wouldn't do.

Okay then, what would you do instead?

 

[TD]

All right let's do something fun instead: Cole said what he'd do if he were playing the mob. What would your play be if it were you? Would you use abilities the first night or keep your cards close to your chest and wait for the best moment?

I'd throw everything out there at once.

Mostly because I'm a terrible combination of impatient and paranoid.

What about YOU?

 

[Kat]

I'd throw everything out there at once.

Mostly because I'm a terrible combination of impatient and paranoid.

What about YOU?

Yeah, me too probably. The one time I did wait it backfired on me horribly. Maybe this game will be a slower pace and it'd be a mistake, but it's better than getting killed and not getting to use it at all.

 

[Cole]

Okay then, what would you do instead?

I will not be taking questions at this time.

 

[TD]

So also, there's "no harm" in actually voting someone today because it's not a guaranteed death sentence.

Am I doing this right?

 

[Kat]

I will not be taking questions at this time.

Hmm, a whole lot of "I definitely wouldn't do THIS" from Cole and trying to get us to assume no townie with a role was killed.

 

[Tubby23]

So also, there's "no harm" in actually voting someone today because it's not a guaranteed death sentence.

Am I doing this right?

That's correct you're nominating for them to go on trial tomorrow where there is a jury to vote for them

 

[Cole]

So also, there's "no harm" in actually voting someone today because it's not a guaranteed death sentence.

Am I doing this right?

there is still harm.

because we'd waste a trial on some one innocent.

the better answer is because this is a guaranteed no kill day for the town, we need to vote for someone otherwise we effectively lose 2 days.

 

[Kat]

So also, there's "no harm" in actually voting someone today because it's not a guaranteed death sentence.

Am I doing this right?

Yeah I was thinking that too. Technically the jury could be mostly mob and that could get them killed, but it'd be worth the info IMO.

I'm glad you were the first to say it, though

 

[Cole]

Hmm, a whole lot of "I definitely wouldn't do THIS" from Cole and trying to get us to assume no townie with a role was killed.

how does assuming no townie with a role was killed help me if I'm mob? if I was mob I'd want you to think you had as little help as possible

 

[Kat]

there is still harm.

because we'd waste a trial on some one innocent.

the better answer is because this is a guaranteed no kill day for the town, we need to vote for someone otherwise we effectively lose 2 days.

How is voting for someone over no one wasting a trial on someone innocent? The alternative is wasting it by not having it at all.

 

[Tubby23]

Are the jurors anonymous?

 

[Kat]

how does assuming no townie with a role was killed help me if I'm mob? if I was mob I'd want you to think you had as little help as possible

Who said it suggested you were mob? Not me.

 

[TD]

Yeah I was thinking that too. Technically the jury could be mostly mob and that could get them killed, but it'd be worth the info IMO.

I'm glad you were the first to say it, though

Why are you glad I said it first?

Are you a mobster trying to avoid saying things that could be perceived as suspicious?

 

[VashTheStampede]

Are the jurors anonymous?

Negative.

 

[Cole]

How is voting for someone over no one wasting a trial on someone innocent? The alternative is wasting it by not having it at all.

I answered your question in the same post!

he got the right answer with the wrong formula.

we need to vote today because we lose two days if not.

but there is still harm in doing it, because a townie could still die at random. it's not like tomorrow will give them a better chance at defending themselves if they're just citizen with no information.

 

[Kat]

Are the jurors anonymous?

I assume not because Vash said to keep an eye on the jury.

 

[TD]

I answered your question in the same post!

he got the right answer with the wrong formula.

we need to vote today because we lose two days if not.

but there is still harm in doing it, because a townie could still die at random. it's not like tomorrow will give them a better chance at defending themselves if they're just citizen with no information.

Couldn't the person on trial just be a good target for our seery role unless they're dead?

 

[Kat]

Why are you glad I said it first?

Are you a mobster trying to avoid saying things that could be perceived as suspicious?

I don't think I can explicitly claim to not be a mobster but obviously nobody wants to be suspicious. IDK I'm used to wolf where that would be seen as bloodthirsty even though it makes sense for the town in this case I think.

 

[TD]

...unless we don't have a seer.

 

[Cole]

Couldn't the person on trial just be a good target for our seery role unless they're dead?

in theory. but if I were gumshoe, I probably wouldn't waste it on someone we might know the answer on soon anyway

 

[TD]

I don't think I can explicitly claim to not be a mobster but obviously nobody wants to be suspicious. IDK I'm used to wolf where that would be seen as bloodthirsty even though it makes sense for the town in this case I think.

Well I guess it's a good thing that I'm basically always perceived as blood thirsty. Logic sometimes makes an appearance.

 

[Kat]

...unless we don't have a seer.

And no protection roles means even if we do, they aren't likely to say anything unless they have something very useful to share. I'm not sure I'd speak up if an innocent town person were on trial.

 

[Kat]

Assuming that person didn't have a useful role, I mean.

 

[TD]

And no protection roles means even if we do, they aren't likely to say anything unless they have something very useful to share. I'm not sure I'd speak up if an innocent town person were on trial.

What if you were the consigning?

 

[TD]

Autocorrect sucks when words aren't there. The mob seer.

 

[Kat]

Autocorrect sucks when words aren't there. The mob seer.

I knew what you meant. Hmmm. Maybe to make myself seem innocent I would, but then it's pretty suspicious when you don't get killed, isn't it? And a dirty cop could take you out. It's risky.

 

[shortkut]

someone is reading from my playbook and speedrunning aggression.

the wolves when we pulled this exact play were myself, TD, and Warp (not playing), with Alu as sorcerer who knew of the plan.

Also everyone who played or watched the game…

 

[Kat]

Also everyone who played or watched the game…

Yeah, agreed, this observation doesn't narrow the pool down any.

 

[TD]

Orrrr it's just a pretty common play.

Also.

I vote shortkut.

Posting and not voting Ants is suspicious.