VTS Mafia The Morgue (Year 2)

[TD]

Now everyone knows:

Don't shit post too much...but make sure to shit post a littie.

Unless you're me because if I ever dial down my posting people will think something is up even if it's not the case.

 

[Christina]

Unless you're me because if I ever dial down my posting people will think something is up ever if it's not the case.

We would probably call in a welfare check on you.

 

[Smacktard]

S is for Squab

I don't think cooked pigeon counts, would it?

Not to speak for Alu but I think it had to do with one of you (do not remember who) saying shortkut was going to die - so the bomber would know who to not target

I said it, and it was a legitimate offer to work together (although a bad play in retrospect). But there was always the chance that Tubby thought I was bluffing, and then chooses shortkut anyway. What reason did he have to believe us?

The night you guys killed Tommy I was shocked. I looked at Vash and asked him, "do they not know who the bomber is?

Zell was convincing when he said it wasn't likely the bomber hit another one of us. Seemed fair, and at this point I assumed people were watching their post counts. If FR and Zell outposted Tubby, we would've won. Tubby did well not to choose me as a bombing victim.

100% this. If you had signaled you were going to kill kut and then killed canadaguy it would have been more convincing.

It would've been a lot more credible for sure, but like I said when I was alive, Tubby could've thought we were bluffing.

The point is moot though: I had presented the town with the only way that could possibly win. At that point it was up to chance, and whether or not Tubby tagged someone other than Kut was irrelevant because there was no other way for the town to win.

I know I was being annoying when I was telling you that you couldn't win, I know I was being obnoxious when I said you would be throwing away any chance you had of winning if you didn't play along -- but it was true. Even if it was a 1% chance that Tubby chose shortkut too -- it was the only chance.

It felt like you thought you had it in the bag, being able to call your shots on who would be killed publicly and then assuming the city would just bend to your will

Lol nah I didn't feel like we had it in the bag at all. As soon as FR died, I figured there was a 50/50 chance we win, and if it comes down to town picking the winner between mafia and bomber, I knew we lost.

 

[TD]

Peering into the mind on an idiot

So uh..
Is it just a group of people watching me then?

 

[Zell 17]

Lol nah I didn't feel like we had it in the bag at all. As soon as FR died, I figured there was a 50/50 chance we win, and if it comes down to town picking the winner between mafia and bomber, I knew we lost.

Same. This happens a lot in these games, the solo can lie low and just kill people and everyone loves them because the wolves/mafia have been lying all game. That's why I tried to fake bomber at the earliest opportunity. I wanted to at least muddy the water so they when the town inevitably picks the "nice solo" over the "mean wolves/mafia" it's not straightforward.

But in the end the tells did me in. I also wanted Fool's to sell me day 1 because nobody would have thought he would do it, but he went and got himself jailed instead.

 

[VashTheStampede]

So uh..
Is it just a group of people watching me then?

Thankfully most of them wouldn't be able to see much of you this game

 

[Jon]

The punctuation one was too blatant though, even if it wasn't used on mafiosos.

Tell me about it...

Alu asking the dedthred to vote who he should vote for and the dedthred playing along was shitty.

FWIW I didn't vote, just used a different non voting emoji because if it were serious I didn't like it. If it were a joke, it didn't matter.

Would it have swayed anyone's votes at all?

All I meant is that as Foreman I didn't rig juries. That was Bailiff.

That's what I was hoping to do, as a final fuck you to the city Vash confirmed it would only reveal my tell.

I was excited for the brother blood ploy, ngl. I was sad it couldn't have worked. lol

"Trust" explained above.

I gotcha now.

Why? That would just be prolonging the town's death.

That was under the assumption Tubby tagged Kut and couldn't kill CG/Alu. Once that was confirm, it was game over for the town officially.

City had literally no chance.

They didn't though. Not until CG was killed.

Also that last night I left canadaguy alive because frankly I was looking forward to being hushed after spending all damn day shitposting. Same reason I extended the night to the full length.

Ftr, wasting everyone's time purposely is a pet peeve. lol

 

[VashTheStampede]

Oh man that was one thing I was SUPER sad didn't happen.

Zell had this idea for one of the Mobsters to claim they got a Clue and drop one of the legit Tells to fully exonerate them.

That would have been fucking rad.

 

[A Baby Maker]

Oh man that was one thing I was SUPER sad didn't happen.

Zell had this idea for one of the Mobsters to claim they got a Clue and drop one of the legit Tells to fully exonerate them.

That would have been fucking rad.

That's what I thought could have happened. If the votes didn't come in for me back to back so quick at the end of the day phase (from two townies lol) I likely would have taken a bit more time on my decision as the judge. It was literally a coin flip at that point.

 

[Smacktard]

That's why I tried to fake bomber at the earliest opportunity

I also kept thinking about doing this myself, but remembered that I didn't have enough posts day 1. You had the same thought for me before you did it yourself. It was a desperate play at that point, but it was the only possible one you had.

I think it was corpus vile

Yep, and it was renamed because we idiots who called PIMI "home" were toeing the line causing so much mayhem that PIMI was shut down, then renamed into Corpus Vile, with harsher rules IIRC

They didn't though. Not until CG was killed.

Explain how the town could've won before CG was killed. I already detailed exactly how it couldn't, so I'm not seeing how it's possible unless you believe the bads would team up with the town to ensure they themselves lose.

 

[A Baby Maker]

Explain how the town could've won before CG was killed. I already detailed exactly how it couldn't, so I'm not seeing how it's possible unless you believe the bads would team up with the town to ensure they themselves lose.

Technically we could have won. It wasn't going to happen in reality.

Like I said, I was 100% convinced that tubby tagged either myself or cg because of you straight up saying you were going to murder kut. There was no "technically" path to victory under your plan because of that.

 

[TD]

Oh man that was one thing I was SUPER sad didn't happen.

Zell had this idea for one of the Mobsters to claim they got a Clue and drop one of the legit Tells to fully exonerate them.

That would have been fucking rad.

I was waiting for that play to happen because I so wanted to watch that chaos unfold and I really thought it would.

I'd say I'm disappointed it didn't happen - but this game was so damn entertaining to watch.

 

[Tubby23]

Well..
Did you, @Tubby23 ?

Which day was it and I'll go see if I remember it? If it's Australian there's every chance I did and thought nothing of it haha

 

[Smacktard]

Which day was it and I'll go see if I remember it? If it's Australian there's every chance I did and thought nothing of it haha

It was the aha ha wasp. I said it the day of Local's trial.

There was no "technically" path to victory under your plan because of that.

But there was also no path to victory for you under any other circumstances, so what did you have to lose by rolling the dice?

 

[Jon]

Oh, hey, my 500th post was to Kelly. Hope you feel special!

 

[A Baby Maker]

It was the aha ha wasp. I said it the day of Local's trial.

But there was also no path to victory for you under any other circumstances, so what did you have to lose by rolling the dice?

Would have lost the power to show you all had also made mistakes in the game (as pointed out earlier) and that the choice for who won would have been completely in my hands.

 

[Christina]

Would have lost the power to show you all had also made mistakes in the game (as pointed out earlier) and that the choice for who won would have been completely in my hands.

Except for Tubby. Tubby played a prefect game.

#teamtubby

 

[A Baby Maker]

Except for Tubby. Tubby played a prefect game.

#teamtubby

Oh yeah, "You all" was in reference to the mafia there.

 

[TD]

You know who really played a perfect game?

Kat.

Didn't even get a chance to make a mistake.

 

[Smacktard]

Zell and I weren't sure that Tubby hadn't tagged shortkut, so that's why we pushed the angle. It was the only slim chance we had at winning as well, but we floated it, knowing that it could come apart if Tubby tagged you or cg anyway, so why not at least try?

At the time, it genuinely felt that you were so annoyed with the mafia that you were willing to discard the slim possibility of a city win, and that's why I said so -- even if at the time it was probably the most obnoxious thing I could say.

But in the end you and cg went along with the deal because you eventually realized it was your only chance of winning, so I'm not sure why it seems like you're being revisionist now in saying that you knew 100% that there was no chance Tubby tagged kut

 

[Smacktard]

I think this quote pretty much confirms the above, unless I've misinterpreted it?:

Would have lost the power to show you all had also made mistakes in the game (as pointed out earlier) and that the choice for who won would have been completely in my hands.

 

[TD]

I'd also say that with the mafia openly negotiating with the city and the city engaging in the conversation, that was all Tubby needed to blow up cg when he did to eliminate all hope for the city.

 

[A Baby Maker]

Please tell me how this is anything other than asking CG what his opinion was:

The prose has been deemed acceptable for consideration.

@canadaguy - what we could do, now that the mafia has realized we can force them to lose in multiple ways, is this:

1. Stick with the original plan of not voting and forcing the mafia to choose
2. Go with a modified version of Kelly's plan
   1. Kill Kelly (obviously the prose was not good enough to earn a not guilty verdict, Mr. Confirmed Don)
   2. Vote for one of the two of us
   3. If one of us goes boom before the end of the day, switch to voting with Tubby for Zell

Benefits of the first plan:

• We don't got to do shit but wait and see

Drawbacks:

• Zell has pretty clearly stated in the past that evils should want evils to win even if it's not them (when it comes to his game) so we've probably already lost

Benefits of the second one:

• We still get to kill Kelly (yay!)
• If tubby for some reason tagged shortkut instead of one of the two of us hilarity will continue to ensue in this game
• If tubby tagged one of us, we can vote for his well deserved victory to take place

Drawbacks:

• We actually have to pay attention
• Tubby likely tagged one of us meaning we probably have already lost

What are your thoughts, my fellow Eric?

The revisionist history is you saying I decided to go along with your plan, when literally all I did was spell out how we were likely going to lose regardless and asked cg his opinion on which path to take.

 

[Smacktard]

I'd also say that with the mafia openly negotiating with the city and the city engaging in the conversation, that was all Tubby needed to blow up cg when he did to eliminate all hope for the city.

...but he would've just blown them both up the next day and won anyway?

 

[A Baby Maker]

Like literally I said "tubby likely tagged one of us" in there and we should still vote for him to win. If you're not reading that as a signal to tubby to "go ahead and just force the hand" then I don't know how you're reading it.

 

[Jon]

This is getting as spicey as the last day thread. Can Tubby blow them all up again?

 

[TD]

...but he would've just blown them both up the next day and won anyway?

Unless the mafia killed the bomber, that was the point. The mafia needed Tubby to blow up cg to have a chance of winning themselves.

You're only looking at this from the mafia perspective.

For Tubby - he could've easily opted to not blow up cg if the trial wasn't going where he wanted and use that as leverage to get what he wants.

 

[Zell 17]

I was waiting for that play to happen because I so wanted to watch that chaos unfold and I really thought it would.

I'd say I'm disappointed it didn't happen - but this game was so damn entertaining to watch.

The plan was to have Fool's do it day 2. Had to be Fool's because he's the only one of us who if he "found info" would basically be seen as proven. Then he got jailed and claimed a role that couldn't get info until at least Day 3, and by that point Benzine was dead and the animal tell was revealed 2x. So he would have had to sell Kelly or be the THIRD person to uncover the animal tell. Selling Kelly would have left him as the sole remaining mafia and a prime target for the Bomber, and revealing the animal tell (again) would give him absolutely no additional credibility.

 

[Smacktard]

Please tell me how this is anything other than asking CG what his opinion was:



The revisionist history is you saying I decided to go along with your plan, when literally all I did was spell out how we were likely going to lose regardless and asked cg his opinion on which path to take.

I just read this quote in context and you're right. My bad, I misremembered.

Although you DID go from not considering the plan at all to considering it "after you read my prose"

Anyway, this raises a point: misremembering things often makes people seem sus in-game, but it does legitimatrly happen more often than many people realize. For example, I forgot during this dedthred why we killed Jawneh, and I was the one that pushed FR to do it. Local forgot that Benzine died, even though that was the reason he went to trial. I'm sure I'm forgetting some more stuff right now that I forgot.

The mafia needed Tubby to blow up cg to have a chance of winning themselves.

The mafia actually needed Tubby to NOT blow up cg to win. It was Zell's plan that I outlined before. Both he and I knew town would side with solo over wolves. I think I even said earlier in this thread that if Tubby blew up Alu/cg, we were done for.

 

[TD]

The mafia actually needed Tubby to NOT blow up cg to win. It was Zell's plan that I outlined before. Both he and I knew town would side with solo over wolves. I think I even said earlier in this thread that if Tubby blew up Alu/cg, we were done for.

...how would you need Tubby to not blow up cg?

I'm not following. Paint out this scenario for me.

 

[Zell 17]

...how would you need Tubby to not blow up cg?

I'm not following. Paint out this scenario for me.

Here was the idea.

2 mafia (one jailed). Bomber. Two town.

Let's say Tubby has nobody marked or doesn't kill CG.

Both town and mafia vote for a townie to jail. Smacktard executed. We head into night with 1 townie free, 1 townie jailed, 1 mafia and bomber free. The mafia kill the bomber. We go into day with 1 townie free, 1 townie jailed, 1 mafia free. Vash had said in this scenario the jury would be only one person, and pulled randomly. So the town and mafia would both have a 50-50 shot to win: If Vash selects the townie for Jury, town wins. If Vash selects the mafia, mafia wins.

From a mafia perspective, this was our best chance because it came down to pure luck instead of the town deciding (which was never going to go our way because we'd been lying to them all game).

From a town perspective, this was their best chance because it was their ONLY chance.

 

[Smacktard]

...how would you need Tubby to not blow up cg?

I'm not following. Paint out this scenario for me.

This is exactly what I mean when I say it's annoying when you're spitting facts and no one believes you

I laid it out in the live thread.
I laid it out here:

The Morgue (Year 2)

Jon had the most credibility of the four left

gwforums.com

Here's how it could've played out, if cg remained alive, and if Tubby missed his mark:

CG + Alu vote for Alu
Tubby sees he's going to be dead by morning and votes for Zell
Zell doesn't vote
CG and Alu don't budge
Alu arrested
Overnight
Zell kills Tubby (Mafia's only shot at winning)
Canadaguy vs Zell, 50/50 shot of winning because the jury is EITHER canadaguy OR Zell

OR
CG + Alu vote for Alu
Tubby sees he's going to be dead by morning and votes for Zell
CG + Alu split votes between Zell and Tubby
Zell doesn't vote
Zell arrested
Overnight, Tubby kills citizen (unless he can kill jailed mafia)
Next day
1v1v1 with mafia in jail
50/50 Tubby votes to kill Zell and win
If not, town loses eventually anyway

OR
CG + Alu vote for Alu
Tubby won't vote for Zell because there's a possibility of MAD and he doesn't want to risk it since he can only post one time, same 50/50 scenario unfolds as above

OR
Cg+Alu vote for either Tubby or Zell, and Tubby/Zell don't vote, in which case town loses anyway

The ONLY way the town could win was the deal I offered them... again, before cg blew up. Once cg blew up, my offer didn't matter anymore.

I made some edits so hopefully it's more clear.

 

[Smacktard]

From a town perspective, this was their best chance because it was their ONLY chance.

This. And "it wasn't our only chance because I know Tubby didn't tag cg" is not a valid counter-argument, even if they did end up ultimately being right. It was still an unknown by the time we were making the deal.

Hence why when it was known, and cg died, I said: okay now just jail Zell, kill me, and end the game already

 

[Tubby23]

The night you guys killed Tommy I was shocked. I looked at Vash and asked him, "do they not know who the bomber is?"

Also I too have no idea how Zell's crappy data worked. I would have lost my shit, if I had been playing and somebody did that. I cannot abide by bad data. The whole rest of that day would have been me just looking unhinged throwing eggs at Zell trying to figure out how to post speadsheets.

I can't tell you how much it hurt me to not get involved with that. If I'd have been good I'd have been trying so hard to make the data analytics provide actual insights

 

[TD]

See that's a fine breakdown but therein lies the problem in trying to predict what someone is going to do.

The moment the mafia and city openly tried to conspire against Tubby - that's his queue to bomb, as he did.

That's the variable you're not accounting for with this strategy.

 

[Jon]

Here was the idea.

2 mafia (one jailed). Bomber. Two town.

Let's say Tubby has nobody marked or doesn't kill CG.

Both town and mafia vote for a townie to jail. Smacktard executed. We head into night with 1 townie free, 1 townie jailed, 1 mafia and bomber free. The mafia kill the bomber. We go into day with 1 townie free, 1 townie jailed, 1 mafia free. Vash had said in this scenario the jury would be only one person, and pulled randomly. So the town and mafia would both have a 50-50 shot to win: If Vash selects the townie for Jury, town wins. If Vash selects the mafia, mafia wins.

From a mafia perspective, this was our best chance because it came down to pure luck instead of the town deciding (which was never going to go our way because we'd been lying to them all game).

From a town perspective, this was their best chance because it was their ONLY chance.

But why wouldn't you jail the bomber to prevent him from killing an extra person? You legit couldn't win without the bomber dead. Jail Tubby, prevent him from killing anyone, kill a townie, vote guilty on Tubby next day and flat win...

Putting another townie in jail seems like the worse of the options to me.

 

[Smacktard]

The moment the mafia and city openly tried to conspire against Tubby - that's his queue to bomb, as he did.

But this doesn't actually matter because if he had tagged anyone other than shortkut, he's already won.

 

[Zell 17]

See that's a fine breakdown but therein lies the problem in trying to predict what someone is going to do.

The moment the mafia and city openly tried to conspire against Tubby - that's his queue to bomb, as he did.

That's the variable you're not accounting for with this strategy.

That was fine from our perspective, right? We're in the same position we were before: Needing the town's help to win.

From a town perspective they were dead lost no matter what, so might as well take a 5% chance to win (Tubby doesn't kill or tagged shortkut) over a 0% chance.

 

[Zell 17]

But why wouldn't you jail the bomber to prevent him from killing an extra person? You legit couldn't win without the bomber dead. Jail Tubby, prevent him from killing anyone, kill a townie, vote guilty on Tubby next day and flat win...

Putting another townie in jail seems like the worse of the options to me.

Obviously we would have LOVED to jail Tubby, but we needed the town's help and they wouldn't go for it. We could have jailed tubby the day before and they didn't go for it. We could have jailed tubby when there were four players left and they jailed me instead.

 

[TD]

But this doesn't actually matter because if he had tagged anyone other than shortkut, he's already won.

Which is why it blows my mind that you broadcasted shortkut was going to be your target.

If you say nothing, there's a 1/3 chance you take it out of his hands, and can deal with the bomber.

 

[Jon]

Obviously we would have LOVED to jail Tubby, but we needed the town's help and they wouldn't go for it. We could have jailed tubby the day before and they didn't go for it. We could have jailed tubby when there were four players left and they jailed me instead.

I mean, if I were alive that's my play, but I was thinking about the town not myself. That was my mistake.

EDIT - Hell I broadcast this when on trial and I was expecting my proving I was a townie and I had everything else pegged that between the 6 of you left at the time would JAIL THE FUCKING BOMBER lol.

But then after my suicide you all inexplicable went after Kelly, and it was at that point in my mind that Tubby deserved the win

 

[Zell 17]

Which is why it blows my mind that you broadcasted shortkut was going to be your target.

If you say nothing, there's a 1/3 chance you take it out of his hands, and can deal with the bomber.

Yeah I totally missed that he did this btw. It doesn't matter though, I would have killed Alu if I saw it. Like I said, I desperately wanted to be shushed lol I had so much other stuff to do the shitposting was taking too much time.

 

[TD]

It's a lot of fun to play 3D Chess but sometimes you just gotta play Checkers.

 

[TD]

Yeah I totally missed that he did this btw. It doesn't matter though, I would have killed Alu if I saw it. Like I said, I desperately wanted to be shushed lol I had so much other stuff to do the shitposting was taking too much time.

Technically could've pretended you were shushed?

Hmmmm.

 

[TD]

I realize in the context of cg dying it makes no sense but that was me just thinking out loud about future ideas.

As Alu said somewhere, sometimes I do dumb shit and think about it later.

 

[Tubby23]

It was the aha ha wasp. I said it the day of Local's trial.

But there was also no path to victory for you under any other circumstances, so what did you have to lose by rolling the dice?

So yes I did see this, but not until after the thread was closed for the day and I was doing a read through.

I was trying my best to be semi involved with the Tells discussion without wasting too much of my energy on it because I was already using enough brain capacity on planning who to kill and annoying Vash with post after post.

 

[Tommy Boy]

busiest graveyard ever damn

 

[A Baby Maker]

Yeah I totally missed that he did this btw. It doesn't matter though, I would have killed Alu if I saw it. Like I said, I desperately wanted to be shushed lol I had so much other stuff to do the shitposting was taking too much time.

Yeah - and that's what I was expecting. When you (well Kelly) literally said "save a spot for me in the dead thread, shortkut" and then shortkut actually died I was entirely convinced you all misplayed it.

My post saying "give the bomber a well deserved win" was basically telling Tubby to end it now (which he did) instead of needing to listen to Kelly go on and on about the same thing.


But yes, Kelly - I did actually enjoy your write-up at the beginning and wanted to call that out.

 

[A Baby Maker]

Like I get Kelly doesn't agree with my reasoning, but it was my reasoning and how I read it going down. In my mind, the most likely play was Tubby tagging CG so he would have the opportunity to try and outpost people.

I know this is hindsight, but I would have suggested kut was the kill, and then kill cg. But Zell already said he missed Kelly calling out the mafia kill in advance and that he wanted to be shushed the next day anyway.

 

[Tubby23]

I tagged CG because I needed to be able to post and didn't 100% trust that Zell was definitely shushed.

shortkut wasn't considered because I thought odds were he was dead.