Breaking Joe Biden drops out of 2024 presidential race

[Ancle Suck]

If you take the results of those polls with the rest of the map as it normally plays out, it'll be 268-254 Harris-Trump, with only GA being undecided. That's the closest we've seen it in months.

 

[Quagmire]

How are most of these polls done? If it's just cold calls I would say it favors Harris more as younger people less likely to be Republican and less likely to answer unknown phone call

 

[Ancle Suck]

Here's the way too big breakout. Not too sure they go into the details you want, but literally everything else is theree:

https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/07/Bloomberg-Swing-State-Wave-10.pdf

According to wikipedia:

Morning Consult conducts scientific online polling.[32] It uses a stratified sampling process and multiple nationally recognized vendors to gain access to tens of millions of Americans. After fielding, Morning Consult applies weights based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region (determined by 2016 Current Population Survey).

During the 2016 presidential election, Morning Consult had one of the most accurate national polls: despite calling the winner of the election incorrectly, it successfully predicted Hillary Clinton winning the national popular vote by 3 percent (she won by 2.1 percent).[33] The website FiveThirtyEight also found that Morning Consult, along with other prolific online polling firms, did not have a strong house effect (the tendency of a pollster to favor a political party) in the 2016 election.

 

[Jon]

If you take the results of those polls with the rest of the map as it normally plays out, it'll be 268-254 Harris-Trump, with only GA being undecided. That's the closest we've seen it in months.

Harris has significantly more paths to victory than Biden did.

She could lose Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, but win Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin and win it all.

She could reverse those and win it all.

She could win all six and win it all in a landslide.

She's actually competitive in all of them.

 

[Ants!]

Damn. Georgia is a hard one to win.

 

[Jon]

That's a huge AF margin in MI though. Crazy.

This isn't terribly surprising though. Minnesota is more blue than red. It's only moved closer to the middle recently.

 

[Jon]

Damn. Georgia is a hard one to win.

Especially with the Reps trying to make it impossible.

 

[Ancle Suck]

This isn't terribly surprising though. Minnesota is more blue than red. It's only moved closer to the middle recently.

MI is Michigan. MN is Minnesota.

 

[Jon]

MI is Michigan. MN is Minnesota.

I knew that...

 

[JOE BIDEN]

But have you challenged Donald Trump yet?! He said he'd give you a stroke, but I feel you've already had one.

I used to have a stroke every morning before I married Jill. She does it for me now.

 

[Quagmire]

MI is Michigan. MN is Minnesota.

Tangentially related, I have a "I LOVE ME" mug and a student asked me why I loved Maine so much

 

[Ancle Suck]

Tangentially related, I have a "I LOVE ME" mug and a student asked me why I loved Maine so much

Fair question. Why do you love Maine so much.

 

[dimmerwit]

We once had dinner in Portsmouth just south of the Maine border and I asked my dad to drive us north across the bridge simply to say I'd been there.

Is that enough for a lifetime?

 

[Ben]

We once had dinner in Portsmouth just south of the Maine border and I asked my dad to drive us north across the bridge simply to say I'd been there.

Is that enough for a lifetime?

Nah, you could have gone deeper than Kittery and it's outlet malls. Real Maine doesn't start until you hit Biddeford/Saco.

 

[Ancle Suck]

Portland is worth a visit. Bar Harbor is as well.

It's a fun state, vacationland for a reason

I'd rate it as better than New Hampshire.

 

[dimmerwit]

It does seem like a pretty cool state, we just had no time. We mostly did the coast of MA, and I don't really remember why we went that far north. Maybe a ship since my dad was in the navy. I know later on we went to Fall River for that purpose.

 

[Ben]

It does seem like a pretty cool state, we just had no time. We mostly did the coast of MA, and I don't really remember why we went that far north. Maybe a ship since my dad was in the navy. I know later on we went to Fall River for that purpose.

Pretty sure there's a Navy yard in Kittery/Portsmouth so that'd make sense.

Though he could have made you go visit Bath iron works where they build all of the Navy ships.

 

[dimmerwit]

Nah, I'm sure he'd love to have done so but we didn't go that far. We were based in Boston so it's quite a hike there and back.

 

[Ancle Suck]

According to man who now technically works for Peter Thiel and a crypto-currency casino, it's now officially a coinflip:

 

[Ants!]

Absolutely insane that there can be a 15% margin in the popular vote and still lose.

 

[Jon]

Absolutely insane that there can be a 15% margin in the popular vote and still lose.

It's the pitfalls of the electoral college and the fact there are just more deep red states.

 

[Ancle Suck]

Absolutely insane that there can be a 15% margin in the popular vote and still lose.

What? That's odds to win the popular vote not the popular vote total. The rightmost column is total popular vote and it's currently only 1.1% difference.

 

[Ants!]

Disregard. I dumb.

 

[Ancle Suck]

If Harris wins the popular vote by over 10 points then the Dems will have the trifecta and Texas will officially have gone blue.

 

[Ants!]

Who is this Kennedy shithead and why won't he GTFO

 

[dimmerwit]

According to man who now technically works for Peter Thiel and a crypto-currency casino, it's now officially a coinflip:

What happened? I know he left 538/ABC but I never followed him further.

 

[Ancle Suck]

Who is this Kennedy shithead and why won't he GTFO

RFK Jr. AKA Brain Worms McGee

Yes, that RFK. His family hates him and he's nothing like his dad.

 

[Ancle Suck]

What happened? I know he left 538/ABC but I never followed him further.

He "left" in that he was fired. Then he was hired by a crypto betting company that's co-owned by Peter Thiel. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket

 

[Quagmire]

RFK Jr. AKA Brain Worms McGee

Yes, that RFK. His family hates him and he's nothing like his dad.

Which I don't think was always true. I feel like he was progressive a long time ago. I remember going to a speech about him about 20 years ago and he talked about the environment and protecting it

 

[Ancle Suck]

Which I don't think was always true. I feel like he was progressive a long time ago. I remember going to a speech about him about 20 years ago and he talked about the environment and protecting it

He was an environmental lawyer, but also anti vax.

Dude's weird. The literal brainworms made him worse.

 

[Quagmire]

He was an environmental lawyer, but also anti vax.

Dude's weird. The literal brainworms made him worse.

I forget when the antivax came up, I think it was after I saw him speak but who knows

 

[Quagmire]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/07/30/white-dudes-harris-suspended-x-twitter/

Free speech absolutish...

 

[Ancle Suck]

Trump is now trying to argue that Harris isn't actually Black. Laura Loomer is trying it out as well:



Because:
Jamaicans are famously not black
Black people who have ancestors that owned slaves are not the product of a white slave owner raping a slave

 

[Ancle Suck]

Trump also had an extremely bad appearance today. Will link once I verify the clips video is good.

 

[Ants!]

I've seen a headline about his not-black remark too. But yeah funny reading that woman's tweet and then literally seeing JAMAICAN right there. lol

 

[Ants!]

Trump also had an extremely bad appearance today. Will link once I verify the clips video is good.

I can't wait!

Also, I guess it was prudent to get out ahead of any resurgence of Birthers since Trump was the one responsible for it last time.

 

[Ancle Suck]

Black journalists respond to ‘disastrous’ Trump panel at annual convention

Many expressed frustration with National Association of Black Journalists for inviting ex-president ‘into our home’

www.theguardian.com

During the wait, Philip Lewis, the HuffPost deputy editor, shared on X that the hold-up was being caused by a disagreement between the NABJ and the former president. "I'm told that Trump is demanding that NABJ not do the live factchecking and that's why the event hasn't started yet," he wrote. "We're in a standoff."

Trump said they started late because the equipment was broken. Turns out he once again wanted to be able to just lie.

 

[Ants!]

Ugh. At this point I think people just WANT to be lied to.

 

[Ancle Suck]

Here's the clips:

 

[Ancle Suck]

Trump is really going into the "Harris really isn't black" thing. Holy shit if this is the angle they're going on to make her look bad.

He and his team do not understand bi-racial people.

 

[Ancle Suck]

 

[Ben]

 

[shortkut]

That doesn’t even make sense

 

[dimmerwit]

I mean, in a perverse way it's probably good news. No better way to motivate a large group of voters who vote Democratic and live in key swing states than to attack them.

The fact it's coming up at all is pretty disgusting. I think the most troubling part is how unsurprising it is. I'm pretty sure at least his team fully understands biracial people, but they just don't care.

 

[Ants!]

She all but said white power.

 

[Ants!]

What could they possibly hope to gain from it? I don't see it being a successful campaign strategy that wins them more votes, it's just being nasty for the sake of it.

 

[Mark]

What could they possibly hope to gain from it? I don't see it being a successful campaign strategy that wins them more votes, it's just being nasty for the sake of it.

Honestly, the only thing I can come up with is they crunched the numbers and feel they can score more pissed off rednecks than biracial people… so they can “afford” to piss off people. People that are “business-minded” in the same respect as him are typically reckless with the risks they take, and think little of collateral damage or even overhead if the ends justify the means.

 

[dimmerwit]

What could they possibly hope to gain from it? I don't see it being a successful campaign strategy that wins them more votes, it's just being nasty for the sake of it.

I guess they hope they can whip up their base, a disturbing number of whom will probably buy into this. Then there's another group who probably don't believe it but will claim not to care and that it's "Trump being Trump", sort of like the locker room talk nonsense. From past experience I'm fairly negative about even this awful kind of stuff actually negatively affecting Trump. Hopefully I'm wrong.

That said, I'm not exactly sure Trump or his peons are tactical geniuses.

 

[Ancle Suck]

What could they possibly hope to gain from it? I don't see it being a successful campaign strategy that wins them more votes, it's just being nasty for the sake of it.

"This will help us keep Georgia! Black people hate it when people pretend to be black!"

They honestly think it will play well because of who their base is. But the thing is: the people this will play well to are the people who are already voting for Trump.

 

[Ants!]

Honestly, the only thing I can come up with is they crunched the numbers and feel they can score more pissed off rednecks than biracial people… so they can “afford” to piss off people. People that are “business-minded” in the same respect as him are typically reckless with the risks they take, and think little of collateral damage or even overhead if the ends justify the means.

Why would a pissed off redneck care if she's not black though? How is that a vote they didn't already have?

Like Alu said, they already have those people in their pocket and if anything, they'd prefer their president NOT to be black.