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Zell Wolf GWF Wolf - Zell's Version Night + Day 1

Cole


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That was my intention. If you can protect yourself, I'm going to protect kut so he can confirm you're a townie. Then, if he so chooses, he can compare me to one of you two, and I'll protect that person.
I accept this plan of action. but I again, some of your posts in this thread HAVE been suspicious and it has me antsy. (no pun intended @Ants!) but I am leaning to you telling the truth at the moment, just with a misguided way of going about your plan.
im not a GWPS vet but misrepresenting odds this badly in a wolf game with so many GWPS vets is not going to get you very far i think
hahahahah

I'm actually laughing at this post. Zell is about to break character as host and come in here to explain odds and probability to all of us just because he's red in the face about the misrepresentation.
 

Cole


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im not a GWPS vet but misrepresenting odds this badly in a wolf game with so many GWPS vets is not going to get you very far i think
myself
host @Zell 17
@Analbumcover
@shortkut
@Dean
@VashTheStampede
@Kat (for one season, I think, right? Didnt you play with us in an early season, I remember getting your name on AIM from someone SPECIFICALLY so I could ask you to join a future season and you didn't want to or have time)

those are all the GWPS alum I can remember from this game off the top of my head. If I forgot anyone I'm about to get executed.
 

Ryan!

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I accept this plan of action. but I again, some of your posts in this thread HAVE been suspicious and it has me antsy. (no pun intended @Ants!) but I am leaning to you telling the truth at the moment, just with a misguided way of going about your plan.

hahahahah

I'm actually laughing at this post. Zell is about to break character as host and come in here to explain odds and probability to all of us just because he's red in the face about the misrepresentation.
1000001672.jpg
I used a handy dandy calculator site since it's been a long ass time since Stats and Probability and my math isn't 100% the greatest.
 

shortkut

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That was my intention. If you can protect yourself, I'm going to protect kut so he can confirm you're a townie. Then, if he so chooses, he can compare me to one of you two, and I'll protect that person.
Changing vote to abstain. I have votes against me and hopefully the abstains win
 

Cole


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Changing vote to abstain. I have votes against me and hopefully the abstains win
AGAIN COMPLETE HONESTY FROM ME: I said shortkut was my final answer vote and I wouldn't change it.

I'm not quite at changing my vote YET, but I will consider it depending on how the night goes. I had intended to keep it throughout, but compelling statements have been made and I am willing to reconsider.
 

Ryan!

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I can't math for shit. but what I *do* know, is that random role selection makes using the previous games roles irrelevant. this is a completely clean slate.
And even then, 4/16 chance of being a wolf, or 5/16 chance of you being a bad guy at all. Strong player. Regardless it makes sense to make sure you're kept safe the first night because the odds are still in favor of you not being a Wolf.
 

Cole


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And even then, 4/16 chance of being a wolf, or 5/16 chance of you being a bad guy at all. Strong player. Regardless it makes sense to make sure you're kept safe the first night because the odds are still in favor of you not being a Wolf.
this statement is accurate, but misrepresentative again. every single player in this game has those same odds of being a wolf. ...but we know for a fact there are wolves in this game, so at some point those odds don't line up.

maybe they didn't line up for me and everything I've said so far is a lie? (It's not.)
 

Kat

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@Kat (for one season, I think, right? Didnt you play with us in an early season, I remember getting your name on AIM from someone SPECIFICALLY so I could ask you to join a future season and you didn't want to or have time)

Yes, I played one season and somehow managed to win. And yes this claim that you're less likely to be a wolf this game because you were a wolf last game is bugging the shit out of me.

used a handy dandy calculator site since it's been a long ass time since Stats and Probability and my math isn't 100% the greatest.
That's only for events that which have not happened yet. He was a wolf last time, so he odds of him being a wolf last game are 100%. So you multiply 1 (100%/100) with whatever the odds are this time to calculate the odds of him being a wolf both times. In case you are very, very bad at math, multiplying by 1 doesn't change the value. And that makes perfect sense if you think about it, there's no way the odds this time can be affected by something in the past. There's no mechanism for that to happen.
 

Cole


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Very well, I shall reword.

It is unlikely for a set of circumstances to occur such that you have been selected for the same role in two games with these probabilities.
...that's the same statement.

I said before, I am AWFUL at math, maybe someone smarter will come in and say I'm wrong. but what happened in the first game has ABSOLITELY zero influence on the odds of me being a wolf this game.
 
View attachment 1093
I used a handy dandy calculator site since it's been a long ass time since Stats and Probability and my math isn't 100% the greatest.
If this was before the first game, then you could say “odds of you getting wolf twice in a row are really low.”

But the first game already happened, and does not affect the odds for THIS game. It’s 25% regardless of what he got picked as last game.
 

Cole


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Yes, I played one season and somehow managed to win. And yes this claim that you're less likely to be a wolf this game because you were a wolf last game is bugging the shit out of me.


That's only for events that which have not happened yet. He was a wolf last time, so he odds of him being a wolf last game are 100%. So you multiply 1 (100%/100) with whatever the odds are this time to calculate the odds of him being a wolf both times. In case you are very, very bad at math, multiplying by 1 doesn't change the value. And that makes perfect sense if you think about it, there's no way the odds this time can be affected by something in the past. There's no mechanism for that to happen.
If this was before the first game, then you could say “odds of you getting wolf twice in a row are really low.”

But the first game already happened, and does not affect the odds for THIS game. It’s 25% regardless of what he got picked as last game.
these statements do a way better job at explaining this than j ever could.

thank you folks.

also @Kat i gotta know, how come you never came back?!
 

Cole


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I am being hyper active in this thread at the moment, and its to make up for the fact that I get busy very suddenly and disappear sometimes.

but I also want to say, I don't believe this line of conversation implies guilt for Ryan. odds and probability, that stuff goes so far over my head, I can understand why Ryan might be confused.

he has done stuff I find suspicious. but I am leaning towards innocent right now
 

shortkut

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I am being hyper active in this thread at the moment, and its to make up for the fact that I get busy very suddenly and disappear sometimes.

but I also want to say, I don't believe this line of conversation implies guilt for Ryan. odds probability, that stuff goes so far over my head, I can understand why Ryan might be confused.

he has done stuff I find suspicious. but I am leaning towards innocent right now
I’m leaning towards dumdum townie right now :tease
 

Cole


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I don't remember! I'm sure it wasn't a lack of time unless it was right around when I started college or something. And obviously I had fun.

I literally cannot keep up with this thread.
it's getting a little crazy, but that's the fun of day 1. that's why people like shortkut and I post a ton and just make wild accusations and statements.

there's gonna be so much information to glean from this day once we start getting more information.
 

Jawneh

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Y'all (especially Ryan) should quickly google "Gambler's fallacy" and then we can get on the same page with all this whatever the heck Cole may or may not be nonsense.
 

shortkut

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if you consider "good information" potentially killing a civi and helping the wolves, lynching the Fool and ending the game, or lynching a valuable townie role

then yeah, "good" information.
Lynching a civi, even myself tells you something. Who is eager to bandwagon. Who is easily convinced with bad logic
 

Cole


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Y'all (especially Ryan) should quickly google "Gambler's fallacy" and then we can get on the same page with all this whatever the heck Cole may or may not be nonsense.
as Fire Queen stated, theres a lot of poker players in this thread. we are gamblers by nature, we know this. every hand of poker has the same exact odds of getting a royal flush, those odds are terrible. online poker players play hundreds of thousands of hands in their career, some have never seen a royal flush in their own hand. some have never even seen it at their t able.
 

Jawneh

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as Fire Queen stated, theres a lot of poker players in this thread. we are gamblers by nature, we know this. every hand of poker has the same exact odds of getting a royal flush, those odds are terrible. online poker players play hundreds of thousands of hands in their career, some have never seen a royal flush in their own hand. some have never even seen it at their t able.
Yup. Hence the especially Ryan portion just so that we can all agree on that fact that this and the previous wolf game don't give a shit about each other in terms of you confidently reraising on the flop with a pair of kings in your boot.
 

Cole


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Lynching a civi, even myself tells you something. Who is eager to bandwagon. Who is easily convinced with bad logic
yes, it does. but I don't consider that "good" information, because erroneously lynching a civilian helps the wolves outright, no matter how much information we gain. yeah, if somehow lynching you caused the 4 wolves to immediately oust themselves, great, but let's be real, we're not going to get 100% firm answers on who votes for you if we bandwagon up to 7 votes to lynch you.
 

Cole


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There are still at least a handful of people that haven't said anything at all, which I find to be interesting considering it's a Saturday.
yeah, but that's also a reason that they'd be MORE busy. I was at the lake myself for 6 hours today, people could be spending a night with their family, its summer and they could be travelling (Alu), there's lots of reasons. its so hard to measure guilt with activity in this game.

but I definitely hope they post. this game is... a lot and its complicated and I'm not sure how I feel about it yet, but it should be entertaining at least.
 

shortkut

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yes, it does. but I don't consider that "good" information, because erroneously lynching a civilian helps the wolves outright, no matter how much information we gain. yeah, if somehow lynching you caused the 4 wolves to immediately oust themselves, great, but let's be real, we're not going to get 100% firm answers on who votes for you if we bandwagon up to 7 votes to lynch you.
Letting a wolf kill a civi at night grants them more anonymity. If they are lynching, they have to put their name on it. I can be a wolf, argue with you, and then kill someone entirely who supported me. That doesn’t give good information
 

Kat

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in the previous game, I'd have to reread, but I don't *think* I outright lied

I would have to reread to say for sure, but I swear you said you wished you came up with the idea for the wolves to abstain, and that it was something you would do, but that you didn't. And then you posted in the discussion thread that it was your idea after all. And you also said you wouldn't get rid of shortkut even if you were a wolf, even though you were obviously targeting him. Sooo I'm feeling pretty skeptical about this whole "I never lied and I'm being completely 100% honest" thing. But you are encouraging shortkut to check your team against his own so... Either you're both wolves or you're telling the truth, I guess. I don't think there's anything that makes a team to show as something it's not, right? That's only for auras? I gotta write down a hard copy of all those roles so I can keep them straight.

And I lost the quote so can't remember exactly how it was worded and am not going to look again right now, but what's this whole "shortkut is definitely a fool if he's killed tonight and not if he isn't" thing? Do the wolves know who the fool is? Or was that Ryan again just not understanding odds?

As an aside, my phone has learned the spelling "shortkut", so thanks for making it even worse at auto correcting.
 

Cole


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Letting a wolf kill a civi at night grants them more anonymity. If they are lynching, they have to put their name on it. I can be a wolf, argue with you, and then kill someone entirely who supported me. That doesn’t give good information
but they DON'T have to. abstention is a 100% valid route to take on day 1. 7 are needed to lynch, all 4 wolves can vote abstain and have complete plausible deniablity, and then we get zero gain.

wolf kills at night are NOT complete anonymity. if they kill you, that gives information of who it might be, if they kill someone that hasnt posted, that gives information.
 

Jawneh

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Letting a wolf kill a civi at night grants them more anonymity. If they are lynching, they have to put their name on it. I can be a wolf, argue with you, and then kill someone entirely who supported me. That doesn’t give good information
We got our special roles though. Many of which are only useful when people have died. None has died yet, so those folks are currently doing nothing. Yes, we will need to have people die, but thanks to that we can use our roles and also come back and say what we did with out roles the previous night to string together the whole event.
 

Cole


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I would have to reread to say for sure, but I swear you said you wished you came up with the idea for the wolves to abstain, and that it was something you would do, but that you didn't. And then you posted in the discussion thread that it was your idea after all. And you also said you wouldn't get rid of shortkut even if you were a wolf, even though you were obviously targeting him. Sooo I'm feeling pretty skeptical about this whole "I never lied and I'm being completely 100% honest" thing. But you are encouraging shortkut to check your team against his own so... Either you're both wolves or you're telling the truth, I guess. I don't think there's anything that makes a team to show as something it's not, right? That's only for auras? I gotta write down a hard copy of all those roles so I can keep them straight.

And I lost the quote so can't remember exactly how it was worded and am not going to look again right now, but what's this whole "shortkut is definitely a fool if he's killed tonight and not if he isn't" thing? Do the wolves know who the fool is? Or was that Ryan again just not understanding odds?

As an aside, my phone has learned the spelling "shortkut", so thanks for making it even worse at auto correcting.
two perfeclty valid points that I would like to defend even though it means nothing now because I *could* be lying in th is thread.

1: that is true, I did say I wished it was my idea. but what I DIDNT say is "it wasnt my idea". am I nitpicking? of course. but I phrased it very carefully, I did lie about it, but I didn't say "this wasnt me" during the game.

2: I KNEW someone was going to mention that, but it was a slight misspeak on MY part, (and I contradicted the point in the DMs with my wolves last game), I seldom *WOLF KILL* the best players in the game. but getting them *lynched* is another matter. wolf kills are free, we could've wiped out shortkut, Zell, canadaguy on the first three nights, but I don't like doing that. I'd rather get good players lynched, because that means the rest of the town bought my game.

Kat I don't know if I've ever played wolf with you, but just based on this post I am REALLY going to enjoy playing with/against you.

but I did not say I "never lie" in wolf games, I said I ALMOST never lie. of course I lie sometimes, I just try to not because I find it makes me more believable when it needs to be.

which is why THIS game I am playing it 100% honest (which will be confirmable at some point in this game)

OF COURSE you should believe that I lie all the time, you should believe every word of my posts so far is a lie. It isn't, but you should worry that it is.
 

Ryan!

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I am being hyper active in this thread at the moment, and its to make up for the fact that I get busy very suddenly and disappear sometimes.

but I also want to say, I don't believe this line of conversation implies guilt for Ryan. odds and probability, that stuff goes so far over my head, I can understand why Ryan might be confused.

he has done stuff I find suspicious. but I am leaning towards innocent right now
I haven't gone super into math since my undergrad days. We do use it in specific circumstances, obviously, but I will always defer to the math guys on calculations. Tbh kut very likely uses it far more than I do.
 

shortkut

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We got our special roles though. Many of which are only useful when people have died. None has died yet, so those folks are currently doing nothing. Yes, we will need to have people die, but thanks to that we can use our roles and also come back and say what we did with out roles the previous night to string together the whole event.
Only if they share what they learned otherwise the rest of the town won’t benefit
 

Cole


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Then we got to hope there's some DMing going on in the background for some information sharing or else the town is kind of fucked. Information is only useful if you actually use it.
this is expressly prohibited in the rules, and also id consider it cheating.

if someone uses a role to get information that is critical, they either say how they know and out themselves, or they do their dammdest to convince us without outing themselves.

the whole point of having those roles is to eventually use them when it matters. hopefully they know that.
 

Jawneh

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this is expressly prohibited in the rules, and also id consider it cheating.

if someone uses a role to get information that is critical, they either say how they know and out themselves, or they do their dammdest to convince us without outing themselves.

the whole point of having those roles is to eventually use them when it matters. hopefully they know that.
Let me add a clarification:

Share your information while you are still alive and able.

I wasn't trying to insinuate that you are a douche bag and do anything after you are dead in any shape or form.
 

Cole


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Let me add a clarification:

Share your information while you are still alive and able.

I wasn't trying to insinuate that you are a douche bag and do anything after you are dead in any shape or form.
that's a fair clarification. but that's also just standard for wolf with roles. use them when you need to, but do it as soon as you justifiably can so we don't waste it. agreed 100
 

Cole


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Oh, what the fuck. I hate time zones. I thought this phase was supposed to start at 9PM ET. I'm either guessing ET means something other than Eastern Time, or Zell chose to start this round early. 8 pages of Cole and kut arguing with each other again.

@Zell 17 how many townies, wolves, and neutrals do we have here?
uh ACTUALLY snobby pants, it was like 2 pages of shortkut and I arguing, and 6 pages of all of us telling Ryan he forgot how to math.
 

Ryan!

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Assuming my role works just like the Tough Guy where I'll know who attacked me and can share it the next day, it makes even less sense to waste the super kill. Sure, you get rid of me. Then I out you. And you still have the Doctor to deal with and not knowing who they are. And the Medium could resurrect me and you have two protectors to deal with still.
 
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