Zell Wolf GWF Wolf - Zell's Version Night 1/Day 1/Night 2

[Ryan!]

There’s always a chance Cole is a wolf selling out one of his coconspirators

Which is what I've been saying the entire time.

 

[Tubby23]

Potentially, I think there is little to be gained for him with doing that so early in the game?

 

[shortkut]

Which is what I've been saying the entire time.

If he’s a wolf, he’s the alpha wolf. Otherwise, he isn’t a wolf at all

 

[Fool's Requiem]

There’s always a chance Cole is a wolf selling out one of his coconspirators

Why do that, though? Sacrificing a wolf this early just seems like a bad move.

 

[Ants!]

Playing as a wolf with him in FQ’s game, he was all about causing chaos and seeing what happened and having fun with it. He loved messing with the townies, doing the unpredictable in the first few night phases. Then Zell’s game it was different, he was on the ball and playing it straight and getting wolfies killed.

This time FEELS kind of like that first game. Make the boldest possible statement, then not clarifying or even acknowledging that he said it. See how about an hour ago he made it say “cole is typing” for a very long time, just to finally post a one-sentence-long joke? I think he’s enjoying the effect he has. Probably won’t get serious until tomorrow afternoon.

There is a difference though: even though it FEELS like Coleman from FQ’s game, the strategy is kind of opposite: from pretending to be stumped, to saying he’s 100% certain.

That’s my observation, anyway.

 

[Holly]

Playing as a wolf with him in FQ’s game, he was all about causing chaos and seeing what happened and having fun with it. He loved messing with the townies, doing the unpredictable in the first few night phases. Then Zell’s game it was different, he was on the ball and playing it straight and getting wolfies killed.

This time FEELS kind of like that first game. Make the boldest possible statement, then not clarifying or even acknowledging that he said it. See how about an hour ago he made it say “cole is typing” for a very long time, just to finally post a one-sentence-long joke? I think he’s enjoying the effect he has. Probably won’t get serious until tomorrow afternoon.

There is a difference though: even though it FEELS like Coleman from FQ’s game, the strategy is kind of opposite: from pretending to be stumped, to saying he’s 100% certain.

That’s my observation, anyway.

He also thus far hasn't called to abstain, when in both of the other games (as a wolf, and then as a townie) he pushed hard for it and cast suspicion on anyone that argued against that play.

 

[Ants!]

My current suspicion is that he rolled The Fool this time.

 

[Ants!]

He’s just so good at not getting lynched, that I think he may be at a complete loss for a strategy without seeming too obviously not his usual self.

 

[shortkut]

He also thus far hasn't called to abstain, when in both of the other games (as a wolf, and then as a townie) he pushed hard for it and cast suspicion on anyone that argued against that play.

He has said he will vote for a wolf. The only roles with 100% certainty to identify someone as wolf are the spirit seer (since they killed), aura seer (if not shamaned), another wolf, or the tough guy if attacked. Are there any other roles that can have that level of certainty?

 

[Ants!]

He has said he will vote for a wolf. The only roles with 100% certainty to identify someone as wolf are the spirit seer (since they killed), aura seer (if not shamaned), another wolf, or the tough guy if attacked. Are there any other roles that can have that level of certainty?

Even the aura seer isn’t 100% because of the possibility of the shaman.

 

[shortkut]

My current suspicion is that he rolled The Fool this time.

If his guess doesn’t lead to a wolf kill, we need the gunner or marksman to take Cole out because he’s the fool.

 

[shortkut]

Even the aura seer isn’t 100% because of the possibility of the shaman.

Assuming they weren’t shamaned, I said. What other roles would know 100% without having inside information? It’s unknown to everyone else

 

[Ants!]

Assuming they weren’t shamaned, I said. What other roles would know 100% without having inside information? It’s unknown to everyone else

You’re right, I missed the qualifying statement. My bad lol

 

[Ants!]

Lol @ alu’s current name

 

[Dean]

Assuming they weren’t shamaned, I said. What other roles would know 100% without having inside information? It’s unknown to everyone else

Shaman Wolf: Can select a player to enchant for the following night. They will show as the wolf shaman to all seer roles. This ability has unlimited uses, but cannot be used if the shaman wolf is the only wolf alive. The player to shaman will be selected via PM. Must be sent during the day. Aura: Evil


We don't need to worry about the Shaman Wolf since this is the first day phase, right?

 

[TD]

I don't think "voting abstain" means anything, Zell said it counts as no vote - so really, we are currently only at 3 actual votes out there.

Cole hasn't voted yet and that's the same as abstain.

Either way, Cole needs to convince 6 others that his target is the wolf.

I can't keep track with so many roles, but do any of the roles take out a bunch of people that voted for them?

That used to be a common one.

 

[Cole]

Lol @ alu’s current name

heh that was me.

 

[shortkut]

You’re right, I missed the qualifying statement. My bad lol

Its important to make sure we have a list of all the 100% knowledge roles. We’re hoping Alu got a read on someone, maybe Cole. Someone please double check my list above. Everyone on the list would read as good except the alpha wolf who would read as unknown. If Alu read Cole and it came back unknown, then he is the alpha wolf and needs to be lynched.

 

[canadaguy]

If his guess doesn’t lead to a wolf kill, we need the gunner or marksman to take Cole out because he’s the fool.

I kind of believe him when he says he knows someone is definitely a wolf but my gut is saying that may be because he IS a wolf

 

[shortkut]

I kind of believe him when he says he knows someone is definitely a wolf but my gut is saying that may be because he IS a wolf

I would not be surprised in the slightest. I almost want @Tubby23 to Leroy Jenkin Cole as the priest, lol

 

[Holly]

Cole has single handedly turned day 1 into everyone waiting to see what he says while he drops one liners. If he legit knows who a wolf is, he's probably in part waiting to see what they say to see if they incriminate any other wolves. Or he -could- be a wolf trying to get in with the townies - after all, his longer analysis posts have proven quite successful in motivating people to go along with him, myself included.

We also need to keep in mind that the townies and wolves aren't the only players in the game: there's also a killer of some sort, and a Fool. It's also possible he's not posting in length because of the sodium in the dead thread from last game.

 

[Tubby23]

I would not be surprised in the slightest. I almost want @Tubby23 to Leroy Jenkin Cole as the priest, lol

Certified Leroy Jenkins moment

 

[TD]

He has said he will vote for a wolf. The only roles with 100% certainty to identify someone as wolf are the spirit seer (since they killed), aura seer (if not shamaned), another wolf, or the tough guy if attacked. Are there any other roles that can have that level of certainty?

There are so many variables with those.

Spirit Seer would have had to pick one person and got it right, or pick Alu & one person.

Aura Seer is banking on us having at least 2.

Another wolf this early seems unlikely.

 

[Dean]

I've been trying to work out what the solo killing role is. I assume there is no Serial Killer or Corruptor since only the wolves killed, unless a protection role blocked the killing, but the odds of that would be kind of low, right?

Assuming there's an arsonist, they can douse two people per night with gasoline, and then at some point light the fire and kill everyone who's been doused. That's a crazy dangerous role. I wish I had it lol. Or we could have an alchemist, and if someone got the black potion, they may die at any time. Hopefully @Cole reveals who is a wolf soon, in case he's already been poisoned...

 

[TD]

I forgot tough guy - it's possible, but then he had to have protected Alu and we lose him at the end of the day, he's got nothing to lose and the wolves know who he is.

 

[TD]

Serial killer can stack kills though, only solo one we can rule out is corrupter unless it was blocked.

 

[shortkut]

There are so many variables with those.

Spirit Seer would have had to pick one person and got it right, or pick Alu & one person.

Aura Seer is banking on us having at least 2.

Another wolf this early seems unlikely.

Which is why we need to see who he wants us to kill and if Alu read his aura so we can determine if he is friend or alpha wolf

 

[Dean]

Serial killer can stack kills though, only solo one we can rule out is corrupter unless it was blocked.

I didn't consider that strategy.

 

[TD]

Which is why we need to see who he wants us to kill and if Alu read his aura so we can determine if he is friend or alpha wolf

That medium is going to be very important in day 2.

 

[Raposuh]

I don't think "voting abstain" means anything, Zell said it counts as no vote - so really, we are currently only at 3 actual votes out there.

Cole hasn't voted yet and that's the same as abstain.

Either way, Cole needs to convince 6 others that his target is the wolf.

I can't keep track with so many roles, but do any of the roles take out a bunch of people that voted for them?

That used to be a common one.

Don't think anybody replied here, only the avenger roles will kill a single other player of their choosing if they die.

 

[Raine]

Yeah, as far as the solo killer is concerned - if it's the Arsonist, everyone in the game has to get on that shit ASAP. There won't even be a warning, we'll all just go up in flames at once.

Corruptor is the only variety that's forced to consistently kill. Alchemist we would presumably know about sometime before Day 1 ends.

 

[TD]

Yeah, as far as the solo killer is concerned - if it's the Arsonist, everyone in the game has to get on that shit ASAP. There won't even be a warning, we'll all just go up in flames at once.

Corruptor is the only variety that's forced to consistently kill. Alchemist we would presumably know about sometime before Day 1 ends.

Who would be able to detect the arsonist with our main seer gone?

 

[Tubby23]

Who would be able to detect the arsonist with our main seer gone?

There is the potential for another Aura Seer isn't there?

 

[shortkut]

There is the potential for another Aura Seer isn't there?

Potential yes, but the odds with all those other roles are incalculable

 

[Raine]

There's the Wolf Seer too. The Wolf Seer isn't pro-town, but it's also in their interest to kill the Random Killer.

 

[TD]

There is the potential for another Aura Seer isn't there?

You're right, it's possible but those odds are low.

 

[shortkut]

There's the Wolf Seer too. The Wolf Seer isn't pro-town, but it's also in their interest to kill the Random Killer.

for Cole to be the wolf seer, it would require Cole to rally the town to lynch a non-wolf which leads to his death. He only wants to die if he is the fool.

 

[shortkut]

for Cole to be the wolf seer, it would require Cole to rally the town to lynch a non-wolf which leads to his death. He only wants to die if he is the fool.

If a wolf dies, Cole can live another night. If a wolf doesn’t die, we have to assume Cole is the fool and use one of our non-lynching methods to kill him. Either witch overnight or gunner during the day

 

[canadaguy]

Potential yes, but the odds with all those other roles are incalculable

I mean it's absolutely calculable. In fact I think it's about a 20% chance

 

[Raine]

for Cole to be the wolf seer, it would require Cole to rally the town to lynch a non-wolf which leads to his death. He only wants to die if he is the fool.

I don't think Cole's the Wolf Seer. What he's doing is way too dangerous if he had that as a role.

The wolves can't kill the Serial Killer, but that blurb isn't included in the other variations. So if the Wolf Seer finds the Random Killer, and the role is Arsonist, they would - I hope - kill them outright then and there.

 

[shortkut]

I mean it's absolutely calculable. In fact I think it's about a 20% chance

 

[TD]

If Cole is the Spirit Seer, is there any situation where he sees red and it wasn't a wolf?

 

[Zell 17]

I mean it's absolutely calculable. In fact I think it's about a 20% chance

Bang on. Math nerd in me loves it. Yup, 80% chance NONE of the random are aura seer or any other particular role.

 

[Zell 17]

I don't think Cole's the Wolf Seer. What he's doing is way too dangerous if he had that as a role.

The wolves can't kill the Serial Killer, but that blurb isn't included in the other variations. So if the Wolf Seer finds the Random Killer, and the role is Arsonist, they would - I hope - kill them outright then and there.

I will fix that. The wolves cannot kill ANY solo killer at night.

 

[Ants!]

If Cole is the Spirit Seer, is there any situation where he sees red and it wasn't a wolf?

From what I can tell, they’re red if they killed, no matter which team they belonged to. Could be the killer or the marksman, for example.

 

[Raine]

I will fix that. The wolves cannot kill ANY solo killer at night.

Well... that's wonderful! We don't get any warning that we've been doused either, yeah? Fuckin' doomed the first time that role shows up.

 

[Ants!]

Cole has single handedly turned day 1 into everyone waiting to see what he says while he drops one liners. If he legit knows who a wolf is, he's probably in part waiting to see what they say to see if they incriminate any other wolves. Or he -could- be a wolf trying to get in with the townies - after all, his longer analysis posts have proven quite successful in motivating people to go along with him, myself included.

We also need to keep in mind that the townies and wolves aren't the only players in the game: there's also a killer of some sort, and a Fool. It's also possible he's not posting in length because of the sodium in the dead thread from last game.

This is a very insightful post.

 

[canadaguy]

Bang on. Math nerd in me loves it. Yup, 80% chance NONE of the random are aura seer or any other particular role.

Yeah that's how I calculated it, so technically the 20% represents any situation with AT LEAST one aura seer in the random group.

Since it's already determined one could argue the odds are actually either 0 or 100% that there is at least one left though.

 

[Zell 17]

Yeah that's how I calculated it, so technically the 20% represents any situation with AT LEAST one aura seer in the random group.

Since it's already determined one could argue the odds are actually either 0 or 100% that there is at least one left though.

All odds boil down to 50% in the end right…either it is or it isn’t.

 

[Cole]

All odds boil down to 50% in the end right…either it is or it isn’t.

there's three kinds of people who are good at math.

those that are and those that aren't.