Zell Wolf GWF Wolf - Zell's Version Night 1/Day 1/Night 2

[shortkut]

Don’t statistics work on the basis of “close enough?”

 

[Cole]

there's three kinds of people who are good at math.

those that are and those that aren't.

my other favorite one of these

there's two kinds of people

1. those that can extrapolate from incomplete data
2.

 

[Zell 17]

This is what we needed to get the thread to 700 replies. Odds discussions! Before we thought it was the actual game that people liked.

 

[shortkut]

my other favorite one of these

there's two kinds of people

1. those that can extrapolate from incomplete data
2.

What’s the other one?

 

[canadaguy]

Don’t statistics work on the basis of “close enough?”

Id say it has a built in excuse for failure.

 

[shortkut]

This is what we needed to get the thread to 700 replies. Odds discussions! Before we thought it was the actual game that people liked.

Why do you think I started it? I would rather this than a walk of posts wondering when Cole would post. We’ve already said all we can about it

 

[canadaguy]

This is what we needed to get the thread to 700 replies. Odds discussions! Before we thought it was the actual game that people liked.

I could calculate probabilities all day.

 

[Zell 17]

I could calculate probabilities all day.

Me too. They’d be wrong. But I can calculate some.

 

[Dean]

This is what we needed to get the thread to 700 replies. Odds discussions! Before we thought it was the actual game that people liked.

Odds are... you'll have fun!

 

[Raine]

 

[Ants!]

Don’t statistics work on the basis of “close enough?”

As long as it’s within one standard deviation.

 

[canadaguy]

The more I mull this over the more suspicious Cole's smoke and mirrors with his secret reveal of a "100% certified grade A wolf" become to me.

 

[canadaguy]

As long as it’s within one standard deviation.

One is a bit strict. Let's go with 2

 

[Fool's Requiem]

If Cole is the Spirit Seer, is there any situation where he sees red and it wasn't a wolf?

No, because Alu was killed by wolves.

 

[Zell 17]

One is a bit strict. Let's go with 2

I’m like 95% sure this is right

 

[shortkut]

One is a bit strict. Let's go with 2

I follow the rule of 3

 

[Ants!]

So one more aura seer is enough to hope for, two more would be an outlier.

 

[Tubby23]

3 would cover practically all data points

 

[VashTheStampede]

So we don't hang Cole today, we hope a night action gets him killed. Got it. Good plan, team.

 

[Holly]

This has been the most useless day 1 since FQ's first game. Just Cole teasing he knows something. 6 pages of nothing.

 

[Dean]

So we don't hang Cole today, we hope a night action gets him killed. Got it. Good plan, team.

I think Cole's got roughly a 141 2/3% chance of dying tonight.

 

[Holly]

Is he trying to get himself killed? If so - why?

 

[VashTheStampede]

I think Cole's got roughly a 141 2/3% chance of dying tonight.

Did you hear that was the SECOND take?!

 

[Ryan!]

If a wolf dies, Cole can live another night. If a wolf doesn’t die, we have to assume Cole is the fool and use one of our non-lynching methods to kill him. Either witch overnight or gunner during the day

The problem with this is we don't have a super reliable protector role. The Tough Guy only has one shot. And we don't know if the Bererk is in play. He makes it all moot.

 

[Dean]

Did you hear that was the SECOND take?!

A part of me wants to refuse to believe that...

But then I remember him telling Tomko, "I'm doing him an egg... you and me favors... I'm pissed now!"

 

[canadaguy]

This has been the most useless day 1 since FQ's first game. Just Cole teasing he knows something. 6 pages of nothing.

I wouldn't say nothing. There's been a lot of discussion on what he's said and whether it's possible and what it might mean depending on if he is telling the truth or not.

And we had a nice discussion on probabilities so that was fun

 

[Tubby23]

A part of me wants to refuse to believe that...

But then I remember him telling Tomko, "I'm doing him an egg... you and me favors... I'm pissed now!"

The man is certainly an enigma

 

[Dean]

The man is certainly an enigma

One of my favorite lines is when he tells DDP, "While you're lying on your back in the hospital screaming in pain, your wife will be lying on her back, screaming my name!"

 

[Raine]

This has been the most useless day 1 since FQ's first game. Just Cole teasing he knows something. 6 pages of nothing.

I wouldn't say nothing. We have information, even if it's just little scraps for the moment. And we have an assortment of confirmed roles, so we're not as completely helpless as we were in FQ's game.

But, yeah, we're waiting on Cole. Time isn't a factor yet, but the longer he waits the more likely it is we'll have to skip because there's a vote threshold that has to be met. There's probably no way he's not dying - at the end of the day phase if he's the Tough Guy, or at night if our limited protection options don't take a risk.

Everything else just kinda has to wait.

 

[shortkut]

We have information like Cole is the alpha wolf… unless he is fortunate enough to have us lynch the berserker wolf or he is just fucking with us and is the fool and wants us to lynch him.

 

[shortkut]

He has said he will vote for a wolf. The only roles with 100% certainty to identify someone as wolf are the spirit seer (since they killed), aura seer (if not shamaned), another wolf, or the tough guy if attacked. Are there any other roles that can have that level of certainty?

Can someone please fact check me so the medium can confer with @aura seer tonight? It is most likely that he targeted Cole last night. If his aura was unknown and he had the 100% certainty, he is alpha wolf. If his aura was good, he is obviously not a wolf or the fool.

If Cole is a townie, the wolves likely won’t kill him tonight because they will just have us kill him tomorrow. If he is a wolf, he’ll probably kill me because I’ve been the loudest saying he’s probably a wolf due to his 100% guarantee

 

[Cole]

Is anyone else in the mood to lynch a mother fucking WOLF?!

 

[VashTheStampede]

Sounds groovy to me baby

 

[shortkut]

Sounds groovy to me baby

 

[canadaguy]

Is anyone else in the mood to lynch a mother fucking WOLF?!

Yeah we've been waiting all day wolfman

 

[shortkut]

Yeah we've been waiting all day wolfman

 

[Tubby23]

Is anyone else in the mood to lynch a mother fucking WOLF?!

That would be good, what have you got for us?

 

[Dean]

Can someone please fact check me so the medium can confer with @aura seer tonight? It is most likely that he targeted Cole last night. If his aura was unknown and he had the 100% certainty, he is alpha wolf. If his aura was good, he is obviously not a wolf or the fool.

If Cole is a townie, the wolves likely won’t kill him tonight because they will just have us kill him tomorrow. If he is a wolf, he’ll probably kill me because I’ve been the loudest saying he’s probably a wolf due to his 100% guarantee

And what if you're a wolf?

 

[shortkut]

And what if you're a wolf?

Then the priest is more than welcome to splash me now

 

[shortkut]

Changing vote to @Tubby23 because I just saw his CT

 

[Tubby23]

Changing vote to @Tubby23 because I just saw his CT

I was waiting to see how long it took you, I changed it in preparation and all

 

[shortkut]

I was waiting to see how long it took you, I changed it in preparation and all

I don’t care if you’re the medium, berserker wolf, or fool…. Until I have a better target, I’m voting you each day

 

[TD]

Is anyone else in the mood to lynch a mother fucking WOLF?!

 

[shortkut]

 

[Ryan!]

Why do I feel Cole is dragging this out just to troll in the end?

 

[Tubby23]

Maybe Cole is proving the point that we need him after so much discussion about style of play last game?

 

[Benzine]

Changing vote to @Tubby23 because I just saw his CT

Remind me what CT means? I know you're referencing the pineapple thing.

I am ready to lynch wolves.

 

[Tubby23]

Remind me what CT means? I know you're referencing the pineapple thing.

I am ready to lynch wolves.

Custom Title

 

[shortkut]

Why do I feel Cole is dragging this out just to troll in the end?

Because he is

 

[Cole]

Why do I feel Cole is dragging this out just to troll in the end?

Because he is

I think there is a chance that he wants to do it in a very long post that he doesn’t have time for right now. We still have well over 24 hours, relax.

Hmm, too true, too true.

I vote canadaguy and skip.