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Honestly, that's my biggest issue with you so farNever did whip up a spreadsheet to make all the role variables less confusing, either. Should probably do that at some point.
I'm in a meeting. A boring meeting
My Fridays are always boring meetings, but at least I get paid.I'm in a meeting. A boring meeting
Type it up in word and then post it when you’re readyI'm gonna work on my analysis post now. I'm actually rereading the majority of the thread to do it, so if you see me typing a long time again, this time no-troll, just way too much effort put into an internet wolf game. But I was free from around 11am on today with absolutely zero plans, so why not make the most of it.
I read through all the roles a ton yesterday, my read is that berserker is an extra kill only if the wolves target somebody who's protected. So the berserker kills the protector and the other wolves get their targeted kill.Confirming that a berserk kill is just like a super power kill and not a second extra kill on top of their normal one?
The order of operations of nighttime moves could mean that it is though, like if two protects are attempted on the same player, maybe only the first one counts?It doesn't necessarily limit it to a double kill the way it's worded either, since multiple people can protect the same person. So, y'know, something to keep in mind whenever there's a confirmed Berserker in the game.
Confirming that a berserk kill is just like a super power kill and not a second extra kill on top of their normal one?
Right right, I was just confirming it does not give an extra target.I read through all the roles a ton yesterday, my read is that berserker is an extra kill only if the wolves target somebody who's protected. So the berserker kills the protector and the other wolves get their targeted kill.
The order of operations of nighttime moves could mean that it is though, like if two protects are attempted on the same player, maybe only the first one counts?
Just figuring out if Cole and I can both survive the night.Thinking about which one of our bodies you intend to munch on tonight?
NO.Type it up in word and then post it when you’re ready
YES.Dont listen to kut. Type it in browser and keep us all in suspense again
I’d like that. It would be easy to follow.Put each paragraph in a separate post and fuck up @aura seer's metrics
This is the type of post I wanted earlier. I am perfectly satisfied with your postAlright, this might be a whole lotta nothin'. But as always, I'll just start typing and see what I can figure out.
Again, I want to state my intentions: the FOOL IS GONE. We are safe to lynch, we might get a townie, of course, that's always a risk, but we can't lose the game today. So I think we should give it a shot. In the first game, Fire Queens, I posted a suspect list with ratings on how guilty they were. I was a wolf, and while the list was *marginally* accurate in terms of my suspicion, I obviously tried to guide people away from my fellow wolves, and onto a very specific target. In THAT post, I actually started with the rating and then fudged the section on that player to fit the goal I needed. Not so much lying, but manipulation of thefacts. I'm gonna do the same thing, I will give a rating for each person, but it's gonna be slightly different. This time I'll type, probably their whole section, and then I'll edit in a scale of 1-10 after their name.
1- not guilty at all, I firmly believe they are innocent.
5- no verdict either way, I don't have a strong enough read at all.
10- lynch the fuckin wolf.
AS ALWAYS MY DISCLAIMER: this is on sheer instinct and reading of peoples posts, I am actively re-reading this thread right now, so this post may take a long time to come together. If you see me typing, give me a sec. But I don't know at this juncture if I can guarantee ANYONE is a wolf, but I think with enough deduction we can find someone to give a solid go to.
(side note disclaimer: again, I did not promise full disclosure. I am not going to sell out townies, it is possible I list someone that I am confident is a townie as having some suspicion just to prevent them from being an insta-gib)
YOU GUYS KNOW I hate day 1 voting. But I hate it on the assumption that day 1 voting has to be random. Today does not have to be random. We have a LOT of information. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY: in no small part thanks to me, we are down 2 townies. We got rid of the fool, and that's great for us, but we need to take a stab at a wolf before the wolves and solo killer accidentally align to kill a whole bunch of us in one day. By my math, if we get VERY unlucky, there could be an arsonist AND a berserker wolf in play, and we could wind up losing FOUR villagers in one night. We need to try our damndest to get a wolf or there's every possibility we lose.
Unlike last game, you guys obviously know for 100% certain I am a townie. This is my honest thoughts, please analyze it, check my work, give your thoughts. If you have an important role and you know something, now might be the time to at least... try to hint very subtly what you know. We need to regain control of this game.
@Raposa - Suspicion: 5/10- Zero information at all. - Raposa self admits that the majority of his gameplay will revolve around 1 liners and jokes. I know Raposa well enough to know that he's a competent player, and sticking with the same strategy EVERY SINGLE GAME is often a huge advantage. Raposas not here for the grand schemes and carefully laid out plans. He's just gonna play his style and figure out what to do. But it makes it nearly impossible to read. He was engaged in my shenanigan's from the first part of this day, but beyond that, he didn't really offer much insight one way or another. Obviously we can't lynch him right now, as there isn't enough information
@Fool's Requiem - 4/10- Im more leaning towards townie, but not by a significant margin. - Ironically labeled Ryan the fool just a few hours into the game. Obviously it wasn't based on whatever his abilities in the game are, it was just a throwaway comment and he even admits he had no intel, it was just a throwaway in a fairly dry early early game. He was one of the first people to identify that I was unlikely to be the fool. He used evidence as a wolf from Fire Queens game to imply that he didn't believe it was a sacrifice play of another wolf, he agrees I'm capable of it, but that I probably wouldn't do it as a "primary strategy" which is true. In fact *everyone* that suggested I'd lead this game with a sacrifice play is crazy. That's too big a risk even by my standards. (though now that I've said that, I'd probably risk it.) He was also the first or one of the first to begin theorizing on what roles I *COULD* have based on the statements I made. Truthfully, he may have been the first "victim" of this strategy, in the sense that he realized I wasn't posting more, and he began to analyze what could be happening, which everyone immediately jumped on and started adding input to. Interestingly, he was VERY QUICK to jump on to my attempt to lynch canadaguy. That could be some sort of misguided trust in me, desire to see "how it all turns out", or maybe he was just looking for information too. But I do find it at least slightly suspicious, I will find EVERYONE that latched onto the canadaguy vote to be slightly suspicious. Fool ALSO correctly read that if I'm not a wolf, anything else I am is moderately irrelevant as both fool and solo killer are theoretically irrelevant until the end of game. Though concern about me being the fool SHOULD have been a higher priority. That alone adds suspicion, BUT, he was also one of the people along with TD that was advocating for not risking the chance that I was a townie.
@canadaguy - 1.5/10- I do believe he is what he hinted. - This is where it gets fun. When I made my vote for canadaguy that started everything, I had the tiniest little bit of suspicion of him. Nothing of note, just a snap cold read. I chose to vote for someone that I VAGUELY suspected (reminder, I wasnt sure at the time where I was going with my strategy, and I wasn't sure if I was going to "let" the canadaguy vote go to the end), but I wanted to vote for someone I vaguely suspected just in case. In the aftermath, I flip flopped a bit. He dropped some hints, giving a firm "he's not" when it was suggested I was a certain role. I picked up on it immediately and chose not to say because as much as I am in favor of people CHOOSING to claim their role, the last thing I want to do is call out SOMEONE ELSES role if they're an asset to the town. At one point I even pointed said "What? I never said I suspected canadaguy", I was still trying to "stay in character", but was hoping people would change their votes and not risk it. Highlight for me is when TD said "alright, so we've narrowed down Cole to 17 possible roles", and canadaguy listed all the ones I COULD NOT be. I'm not going to spell it out, but what cg was claiming was obvious, and I am inclined to believe him. He wasn't overt, and but he also wasn't aggressively pushing at me prior to Tommys errant splash potion of reflected damage (idiot. ) I do believe he's on our side. If other people hadn't called out that he was role claiming, I'd probably have given him some "extra" suspicion points just to try and protect him, but obviously no point now.
@shortkut - 2.5 to 7.5/10- i know thats such a huge range, but the bottom line is he's not playing a middle ground, he's either VERY guilty or VERY innocent. - THIS is the tricky one. And given that I'm not entirely convinced yet, I am going to break my own rule that I *JUST* stated. I might be about to call you out, shortkut, and if I do, I'm sorry, but given that this hasnt exonerated you in my mind, I want the input of others. Early game shortkut was as he always was, disruptive, casting a random vote, just trying to start the conversation, which I always respect. When I started making my grand claims, he did two interesting things. He quickly voted for canadaguy AND even to skip, which was VERY suspicious to me (figured he saw an opportunity to quickly lynch a townie as a wolf), but he stayed involved in the discussion, he continued theorizing. But at one point, he was *ADAMANT* that the Gunner take me out. He thinks his reasoning was sound, but I disagree entirely. There was no reason for the gunner to take that shot with such limited information, especially if what I'm about to say is true. my suspicion of him waned a little bit when he made an interesting post, he said "I've made 76 posts in this thread!". ...76, that's specific. vBulletin used to have a way in which you could see who was most active in a thread by number of posts. I've been searching to see if there was a way on Xenforo, and I had concluded that there was NOT, but then shortkut says he had 76 posts. Random throwaway number? Apparently not. He implied something very specific, and I did catch it. But I am not convinced either. Especially when shortkut so willfully role claimed last game. Depending on how the rest of this list goes, he could be the one I choose to take the chance on.
@Benzine - 5/10- Litrerally nothing to say. - He's posted twice, one was unrelated to the game. I'm honestly tempted to just roll the dice and lynch him. I know the time zone difference sucks, but this was a HUGE day phase and he pretty much did nothing.
@Warp - 7/10- No definitive read, but I'm getting a vibe. - Warps first significant post was the analysis delivered after my "2 truths and a lie" minigame. It was fairly accurate, he deduced which roles were possible in each of the three scenarios. These types of posts can really go either way. A helpful townie trying to help everyone sort out what's going on? Or an enemy trying to isolate me as another bad guy that he can put down. It's hard to say. He was also among the first to call for the gunner, but it came before I was confirmed to not be a wolf by Tommy accidentally DRINKING his potion instead of throwing it at me (idiot). This is probably a HUGELY wrong read, but Warp insisted at least once that I was "trolling". It's possible she genuinely thought that, and she wasn't the only one to say it, but I wasn't. Every action had a clear reasoning. And it does irk me that someone would consider it trolling. Everyone else was analyzing, and overanalyzing, "whys he doing that?" "why isnt Cole talking much?" "whats his gameplan?" but trolling? Nah, that aint me! Warp interestingly was one of the first to DEMAND canadaguy and I be protected, but... also implied that canadaguy was a more valuable protectee than me? According to Zell himself, the gunner is one of the most important town roles. I had a confirmed fool kill, I am a confirmed townie, canadaguy has a loose implication that he might be a townie with an ability that is only succesful in VERY specific conditions... and that same ability is also fallible. It almost seems like he was encouraging CANADAGUY to be protected and leave me for dead. ...I hadn't caught that until just now.
@Ants! - 3/10- Strongly leaning innocent, but could be big brain. - SNAP READ, Ants reads innocent. He was VERY invested in my ongoings, and he proved EXTREMELY insightful. He pointed out SPOT ON in fact that me typing in here but then posting a throw away was deliberate, AND IT WAS. I do believe him to be a solid all around player. He was extremely involved in discussions, he was helpful, he played a rather fair devils advocate, and it's SO HARD to get a read on that. Ants also called for the gunner, but was he just joining the crowd? Or did he really want it? He was the first person to assume that it was IRL stuff getting in the way (not this time, I was available), but he seemed almost more invested in my antics than anyone else was. That reads as a townie more than it does an enemy. If Ants was a wolf, his investment in my story would only be insofar as he could take advantage of it. But instead he read as invested in what was happening. I am inclined to lean townie. Ants also correctly understood that ONLY the town fears the fool, due to his experience in the previous game, he is aware that the fool can be used very well by the wolves. Could zells 1st game wolf be a cover for him trying to use the fool THIS game? maybe. But I think he was trying to help the town understand things better.
@Cole - 10/10- Handsome as fuck. - Cole can often be found being really sexy and cool and definitely the life of the party. ...shit I got off topic, sorry.
@Dean - 5.1/10- Just barely on the side of being more suspicious now. - Dean was one of my very first suspects. I don't even remember why now, I deleted the note file when he was defending TD's defense of me. But he was on my list, I almost gave HIM the vote that went to canadaguy. Deans post havent been long and storied, many of them have been "here's why I wont be active for a while", but his other posts have been short and sweet. It ALMOST feels like him just trying to stir the pot. Dean did loosely side with TD on the fact that someone taking a shot at me for the way I was acting was too big a risk. And as I said, TDs posts were all EXTREMELY valid, and that lends validity to Dean. But I imagine Dean could've realized TDs thought patterns were accurate while ALSO being a bad guy, but deciding to latch on to it to cause dissent. But his short posts, and general "I'm too busy to play" while also having a fair amount of posts in the thread, does give me an inkling... positive? Not at all. But theres something here.
@Tubby23 - 5.1/10- POST SOME SUBSTANCE MAN! - Has Tubby made more than one post of more than 20 words? I'm not sure. Like Dean, they've all been msotly one liners, MANY of them questions asking for clarification. I believe Tubby has called himself inexperienced, I don't remember either way, but his inquisitive questions and sparse activity could EASILY be the sign of someone inexperienced. ...but they could also be the sign of an inexperienced WOLF that's trying to fly under the radar, but still stay involved in the game. I think I'm honestly starting to get a LITTLE overwhelmed here on which way is up. Snap read says Tubby might be the "low laying wolf" that every good wolf group needs, someone to fly sort of under the radar. But I stay that with n o confidence. So similar to Dean...
@VashTheStampede - 6.9/10- Vash is the X-factor right now, but I lean a bit evil... - Vash is such a fucking anomaly. For some reason, no matter what he does, I always vaguely read him as townie. I know he was following along intently with this game. Vashs game usually revolves around INTENTIONAL devils advocacy as a means to stay valuable to both town and wolf alike. Vash was quick to critique everyone elses plans, with little planning of his own. That seems more like TOWNIE behavior than it does wolf behavior. In the very first game, Fire Queens game, he made a poor decision because he didn't want to "lead a bandwagon" and be thought guilty because of it. He has continued to do that, in effect trying hard not to be the one to lead the lynch mob. I should've fucking started this earlier so I could've taken more of a break, but i'm actually wondering if Vash landed evil this time... some of his posts have been SO sarcastic, pointing out holes in the days events, but not offering solutions to any of them. It COULD be sheer indecisiveness, but it also could be him trying to sow more chaos and prevent the town from formulating a plan. INTERESTINGLY, he lead the charge to skip the day when I started writing my big post earlier today. It nearly worked, and could have resulted in my death, the fool still alive, and a lot of other trauma to the town. Vash I don't wanna hang you... man I hope I'm wrong. Contrary to that, Vash WAS a fairly vocal voice AGAINST Ryans idea that "this is a guaranteed move, Gunner should act now", Vash agreed it wasn't smart to just quickly risk the shot. But Vash is definitely smart enough to play it cool from the wolf side knowing that he has all the advantage in the world, and whether I'm fool OR serial killer, he figured he could find a way to deal with me that wasnt a gunner action.
@TD - 1/10- Too invested in making smart moves to be evil. - TD has a lot of posts in this thread, and I genuinely can't be fucked to go through and read all of them when I had already formed an opinion on him. TD was ARDENT his defense that shooting me was the wrong move. Even in the face of others accusing him and voting for him, he held fast that he didn't believe taking me out was the right move. It wasn't worth the risk, and IT WASNT. In fact, my whole early plan relied on the fact that no matter what ANYONE thought, it wouldn't be worth the risk to lynch or try to kill me during the day. There just wouldn't be enough information. If TD is playing me, masterful stroke and you've beat me. But if there's one person I feel like I could form an alliance with right now, it has to be TD.
@Holly - 5/10- Not enough information to form validated opinion. - Holly had extremely insightful posts. She was among the first to really see that I was not being myself, and she also very accurately pointed out that my activities had whipped day 1 into a frenzy. She also postulated that everything I was doing might be as a means to information gather, she just had the wrong reason I was doing it. But she hasn't posted a ton, and also stuck on that canadaguy vote for the duration until I revealed the truth. Hard to get a read.
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Alright boys.
I believe we need to lynch a wolf, and I absolutely do not have a definitive answer as to who that should be. my leading suspects are Dash and Warp but I am by no means certain. if other people don't want to commit to this, I fully understand. but I am very nervous about some of the night roles this time, and I am not confident I last another day to help.
I am willing to take the chance. if I'm wrong, I'm wrong and I've lost us this game and I can take the hot for thst.
but if we don't vote and lose a bunch of people tonight, were screwed.
I'm sorry warp, it's nothing personal.
i vote Warp and NO SKIP.
There is. Click on the number of posts from the new posts section or the thread listingsvBulletin used to have a way in which you could see who was most active in a thread by number of posts. I've been searching to see if there was a way on Xenforo, and I had concluded that there was NOT,
it's what I wanted to do but you guys rushed meThis is the type of post I wanted earlier. I am perfectly satisfied with your post
There is. Click on the number of posts from the new posts section or the thread listings
that top statement is true. you're better than you give yourself credit for.Cole always suspects me because he fears me. Honestly I appreciate that, bro.
I've been a bit more chaotic this game because my job is very...circumstantial I guess would be a way to put it. So I'm just trying to have fun with things and go with the flow.
I dont consider any of them trolling, I consider them very deliberate.Bruh if some of those earlier posts weren’t trolling we need to retire the word
I don’t know if you’re a wolf or just bad at this gameI agree wjth Cole in that TD is most likely good. I have an idea what his role is, too, and I'm hoping I'm right. That's also why I think kut and CG are bad because they both jumped onto a TD vote. It was almost like they knew his role and wanted to see if they could get him lynched.