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FQ Wolf GWF Wolf Vol. 1 Discussion Thread: WOLVES WIN

Cole


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Everything reveals something, sure. But killing someone here and now is better unless the wolves target someone of note. But they're not going to kill you or shortkut, they're not going to kill the quiet and "suspicious" people, they're going to kill someone in the middle.

I'm not a wolf this time. But, I'm always a wolf. And that sounded an awful lot like the threat of charts and graphs! :unsure:
that does not mean no information is gainable.

for example, killing shortkut, zell or myself would probably be a sign of a decent player that wants to kill the biggest threats.

killing some one with less activity and no big argument is probably a sign of a beginner, they don't realize the quiet ones are the most helpful.

killing in the middle is the sign of a smart player, because like you said, it has no real implication.

there are lots and lots of things to learn.
 

canadaguy

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that does not mean no information is gainable.

for example, killing shortkut, zell or myself would probably be a sign of a decent player that wants to kill the biggest threats.

killing some one with less activity and no big argument is probably a sign of a beginner, they don't realize the quiet ones are the most helpful.

killing in the middle is the sign of a smart player, because like you said, it has no real implication.

there are lots and lots of things to learn.
But a smart player would know that killing in the middle would suggest a smart player so wouldn't they try to hide that and kill a quiet player. But then people might believe that it was a smart player trying to disguise themselves as a novice.

What I'm trying to say is that players will switch up tactics and there is no one size fits all to explain skill levels.
 

Cole


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But a smart player would know that killing in the middle would suggest a smart player so wouldn't they try to hide that and kill a quiet player. But then people might believe that it was a smart player trying to disguise themselves as a novice.

What I'm trying to say is that players will switch up tactics and there is no one size fits all to explain skill levels.
that is very true. theres games, theres reverse psychology, theres reverse reverse psychology.

I want to be clear to all, I am by *NO MEANS* suggesting that by tomorrow we'll have some magical great answer as to who is a wolf. all I've said *from the very beginning* is we will have *more* information tomorrow than we do today.

its a choice of:
completely random with ZERO information.
vs
mostly random with some educated guess information thrown in.

we can't no vote forever, I know that, we know that. but killing someone DAY ONE with zero information is so short sighted.
 

Jawneh

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Anyone busting out math, statistics and especially charts & graphs (it'll happen eventually!) is 100% a baddie. Not necessarily a wolf, but, a baddie all the same. Source: am baddie.

I mean, look, it's like this. Statistically speaking you're more likely to hit a townie than a wolf. If you start with 14 players, which would be 13 insofar as every townie is concerned, you have 3/13*100 = 23.07% chance of hitting a wolf aiming at complete random. If you do not kill someone today, the wolves will aim for someone in the middle of the pack and we'll repeat this Cole vs kut thing tomorrow. No concrete information to bad had, no power roles to press down on the scale.

If you kill someone today, and it turns out that that person was a townie (whoops!), you still gain information. Not, y'know, particularly good information, but it's more than you otherwise have. There's considerations to be had for keeping the thread active and not killing off the talkers, but also... just, blood for the goddamn blood god?
Except with the number of people and lack of special roles the best course of action IS to abstain. The game will go as long as it can whether we vote someone today or not, therefore there's no reason for us to vote to make the odds better for the wolves.
 

Cole


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Except with the number of people and lack of special roles the best course of action IS to abstain. The game will go as long as it can whether we vote someone today or not, therefore there's no reason for us to vote to make the odds better for the wolves.
there's a reason you're one of only like 5 people from GW still on my steam friends!

you're smrat!
 

shortkut

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that is very true. theres games, theres reverse psychology, theres reverse reverse psychology.

I want to be clear to all, I am by *NO MEANS* suggesting that by tomorrow we'll have some magical great answer as to who is a wolf. all I've said *from the very beginning* is we will have *more* information tomorrow than we do today.

its a choice of:
completely random with ZERO information.
vs
mostly random with some educated guess information thrown in.

we can't no vote forever, I know that, we know that. but killing someone DAY ONE with zero information is so short sighted.
It sounds like you’re saying that I am right
 

Cole


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It sounds like you’re saying that I am right
in what fucking universe? lol

you: "let's vote randomly and so what if we kill a civilian?!"

me: "no, let's not do that, I'd rather make it harder for the wolves to win than help them out."

I acknowledged from the very beginning we wouldn't have a definitive answer, that we'd have more information. YOU'RE the one steadfast in his incorrect opinion, to the point where you even walked it back and forth 3 or 4 different times.

"i dont think we need to vote today, I just wanna vote randomly today!"
 

shortkut

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in what fucking universe? lol

you: "let's vote randomly and so what if we kill a civilian?!"

me: "no, let's not do that, I'd rather make it harder for the wolves to win than help them out."

I acknowledged from the very beginning we wouldn't have a definitive answer, that we'd have more information. YOU'RE the one steadfast in his incorrect opinion, to the point where you even walked it back and forth 3 or 4 different times.

"i dont think we need to vote today, I just wanna vote randomly today!"
Reading between the lines, you’re saying a vote day 2 isn’t much better or accurate than day 1 voting. The biggest difference is how you FEEL at your vote, because you can delude yourself into believing it is not an informed vote
 

Cole


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Reading between the lines, you’re saying a vote day 2 isn’t much better or accurate than day 1 voting. The biggest difference is how you FEEL at your vote, because you can delude yourself into believing it is not an informed vote
no that's not at all what I'm saying and there's no need to read between the lines because I'm not being vague.

there is an increased chance of not being wrong and more information available than day 1 period.

read every message I sent, I've been saying the same thing since the start.
 

Holly

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no that's not at all what I'm saying and there's no need to read between the lines because I'm not being vague.

there is an increased chance of not being wrong and more information available than day 1 period.

read every message I sent, I've been saying the same thing since the start.
I can admit when I am wrong.
Change my vote to Abstain.
 
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FINAL TALLY

Abstain
: 8 (Major Isoor, The Flame, Zell 17, God., Cole, Jawneh, canadaguy, Holly)
shortkut: 3 (Raposa, Ants!, Warp)
Ants!: 1 (shortkut)
Fool's Requiem: 1 (VashTheStampede)
Major Isoor: 1 (Fool's Requiem)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~​

With the beloved Mayor dead and gone, people were quick to point fingers at their neighbors. Arguments echoed throughout the town square, and former friends turned into bitter enemies in what felt like a span of minutes, if not seconds. Eventually, however, the townspeople became split into two distinct groups: those calling for blood and those calling for peace.

In the end, the peacemakers won the day. Some of them even doubted the existence of werewolves at all. Others simply wanted to cling to the last remnants of logic before all chaos broke loose. The silver bullets stayed in the chamber and the executioner's axe remained clean. Everyone laid their heads down to rest that night, unsure if they would be still alive to rise the next morning.


END OF DAY PHASE 1, BEGINNING OF NIGHT PHASE 1
(will end Friday morning EDT)​
 
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The still of the night was interrupted by an inhuman scream. In a way, the citizens of Gold Whiskers were expecting that. The wolves had struck once, and this was certainly them striking again. As the sun crept its way above the horizon, lighting the sky, the townspeople rushed to the source of the scream: the Mayor's petting zoo. The inhuman scream was inhuman for a reason: it came from a sheep, not a person. Written in blood, with red pawprints and discarded wool all around it, were the words "GOOD LUCK."

Was this a taunt? Were the wolves so sure in their immunity to capture? Just in case, the executioner called everyone together to do a headcount. Not counting her, there were still fourteen heads still firmly attached to their respective bodies, just as had been true the day before. Just as the townspeople had abstained from executing anyone on the first day, the wolves had abstained from murdering anyone on this first night.


BEGINNING OF DAY PHASE 2
to be clear, the wolves asked me if they could abstain from killing anyone during this first night, as there's nothing in the rules that says they necessarily have to choose someone to kill. as a big fan of the cinema classic AIR BUD (1997), i couldn't not honor this request. in the interest of making sure the game doesn't run overlong, however, i am limiting the wolves to one "abstention," which they have just used.

today's day phase will run for either 36 hours or until all players have voted, whichever comes first. as a reminder, please bold your votes (especially if you are changing them), and remember that you are limited to one vote change per day. you may still vote to abstain, but i imagine no one's going to be interested in that anymore lol
 

shortkut

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I for one am enjoying this newly found peace between man and wolf. Let us abstain for all time and live happily ever after.
@Fire Queen Can we vote to promote animal husbandry to provide more livestock to keep the wolves sated so they do not have to resort to murder? The old mayor was a bigot and opposed to progress, but with him out of the way, maybe we can live in a post-prejudicial society
 

Cole


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Waiting for @Cole to share what he learned, then I will vote and share my first two suspicions for wolfiness
uh, yeah, about that... I definitely did not anticipate having no extra information. I'll get back to you later today.

I'm just amused because that's exactly what I would have tried.
yeah, it actually is brilliant. it's exactly the type of thing I would've done, and I wish I had thought of it.

Wolves abstained? WHY?? Makes no fucking sense. Maybe it did for the townies.

Feels like something that either Coleman, shortkut, or Zell might have had a hand in, given all the drama from yesterday.
I can't even deny this is something I would have tried for. those two would also be on my short list, but I'm also interested in Vash saying he would have tried it.

man... what the fuck lol

ill try and give my hand holding... sorry ANALYSIS for @shortkut a little later. I have no fucking idea yet.
 
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I’m sorry Fire Queen for putting you in this position, but you need to learn to write the rules as if we are all assholes
this is honestly on me for not realizing that you lot were all a bunch of assholes from the jump but hey, growing pains :raspberry
 

VashTheStampede

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I can't even deny this is something I would have tried for. those two would also be on my short list, but I'm also interested in Vash saying he would have tried it.
Man I am not about to be the guy doing the old "I'm gonna act like I would have done that to throw off suspicion that I actually did that" because...

...well okay actually that would definitely be something I would do. BUT NOT THIS TIME.
 

VashTheStampede

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Also for all I know I might be a wolf, who knows how to check PMs on this board anyway
Omg seriously. When Fool's tagged me in the day phase I panicked for a second and was like "wait even if I was a wolf, HOW WOULD I KNOW?"

if I actually am a wolf I apologize to my lupine brethren
 

Cole


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FYI if anyone's actually not sure

SmartSelect_20230707_114056_Samsung Internet.jpg


the envope there is the DM. and before anyone says it, I have a dm with Crystal, Tommy, BigDaddy and shortkut, Mark and canadaguy.

a couple of those are in this thread and can confirm that.
 

Cole


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ALRIGHTY, let's fucking do this.

Waiting for @Cole to share what he learned, then I will vote and share my first two suspicions for wolfiness
our beloved shortkut wants his hand held. I will oblige.

for obvious reasons, I was assuming the wolves would have killed tonight, without that, we're pretty much still at square 0. theres not a ton of information to glean from this, but there's still some analysis we can do, I probably won't go QUITE as in depth, just because... well really I'm kinda clueless this time, but i'm gonna do my best here.

the wolves no killing is a huge gamble. it could backfire hugely by giving the civis an extra day, and the types of people that would do something like this is probably pretty limited.

on the one side, it could be considered a big brain move, and would need to have been done by someone very experienced in wolf/mafia games. I wont lie, I don't remember everyone that ever played wolf and mafia back in the day, so I can only narrow this down so much.

myself, shortkut, Zell, canadaguy, Ants! are the names that jump out at me that had played a lot of the game and I could see attempting something like this. (Vash was in a couple games I think, self admits to being "bad" at the game, but also said he totally would have done this, so he could easily go on this list.) these players would know the risk vs reward potential of this strategy, and all/most could probably talk themselves out of any danger that it crops up.

then theres th e other side. it could be considered a bit of a stupid move, and would have been done by someone very INexperienced in these types of games. maybe they genuinely couldn't decide who would cause the least suspicion if they were killed and rather than risk it, they decided to just no kill and see where the day goes.

names I dont remember as being big parts of wolf games that might be more inexperienced: God, Fools, Holly and Warp. I don't know any of them well enough to gauge whether or not they're good players or just enjoying the fun.

again, I am being perfectly blunt, there is NOT as much information to glean this time as I had hoped there would be, because I was anticipating a kill.

I'm actually not sure how to proceed. I don't think we can abstain again (either via rules or just because its not wise for the civis to no vote a second day in a row), the game has to be broken open. but I almost WANT to abstain again just because I still hate the idea of making a completely random or arbitrary vote and risk lynching a civi (same exact issue as yesterday.)

my gut says this was strategy, and not indecision. I lean towards one of the experienced players being able to pull this off, and not one of the inexperienced ones. if we are literally not allowed to abstain again, and/or I had a gun to my head, I would pick from that list.

@shortkut is about to post and say its definitely something I would have done. it is. I wish I had come up with it. hes going to assert he was right yesterday, and we should've forced a lynch to get the game moving in the right direction, and that this night proves that. because now we're still no where different than yesterday. he'll assert that I am a wolf and no killed in an effort to cause this exact chaos. but alternatively, shortkut could have also done exactly the same thing to "prove his own point", because now he gets to come in and say "told you fuckers we should've killed someone".

I don't know what to do here. I am still steadfast in my opinion from day 1, random arbitrary voting is stupid. todays day phase should have had one less civi to choose from, and at least *SOME* information gained from who the wolves chose to kill. but they did not do that, and i feel like we're still at square 0. abstaining a second day would almost certainly be unwise, the wolves will have too much opportunity and chance to sew seeds for the rest of the game. but I still hate the idea of arbitrary voting, the odds haven't changed at all, and we have even less information than I was anticipating having today.

I don't know... hopefully we can all talk this out.
 

Cole


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It's neat we can see who's typing up a post. The distant future, the year 2000.
thanks Conan.

Will Arnett Conan GIF by Team Coco
 

canadaguy

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Yeah this was not a rookie mistake, definitely a veteran maneuver.

My gut says Ants but my brain is saying shortkut.

My knee says Coleman but it could also just mean rains acomin
 

Cole


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Yeah this was not a rookie mistake, definitely a veteran maneuver.

My gut says Ants but my brain is saying shortkut.

My knee says Coleman but it could also just mean rains acomin
fun fact, I have an ortho appointment in 2 weeks to find out whether or not I tore my OTHER meniscus.

so all MY knee is telling me is "you're old"
 
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