FQ Wolf GWF Wolf Vol. 1 Discussion Thread: WOLVES WIN

[Cole]

Unless @Fire Queen is going to drop hints to steer us towards a wolf, every day will be an arbitrary vote.

Yes the odds increase, but they are never great odds so why wait

no they will not and you know you're being silly now. you've played a to n before, you KNOW you can read the thread, see who the wolves choose to kill, and make more and more educated guesses.

 

[shortkut]

no they will not and you know you're being silly now. you've played a to n before, you KNOW you can read the thread, see who the wolves choose to kill, and make more and more educated guesses.

Usually there are context clues and hints like who was saved/attempted to be saved. Literally all the wolves have to do is be mostly quiet and there is nothing to suspect them. No clues to make an informed guess

 

[canadaguy]

Usually there are context clues and hints like who was saved/attempted to be saved. Literally all the wolves have to do is be mostly quiet and there is nothing to suspect them. No clues to make an informed guess

Yeah but that's still them giving information. At some point the folks trying to hide in the dark corners and not be seen look suspicious

 

[shortkut]

Yeah but that's still them giving information. At some point the folks trying to hide in the dark corners and not be seen look suspicious

We have ways of finding those in the dark

 

[canadaguy]

Yeah probably with your werewolf enhanced eyesight

 

[shortkut]

Yeah probably with your werewolf enhanced eyesight

I wouldn’t need all the fire if I had enhanced eyesight

 

[Raine]

Ants is (almost?) literally Satan, not a werewolf. Get your mythological beings straight!




Until/if we kill a wolf, there's just going to be a lot of misguided guesswork.

 

[Fire Queen]

CURRENT TALLY (apologies if i missed your vote, let me know if i did, also if you abstain make sure you bold that too, there are a couple of people i am operating under the assumption that they are abstaining)

shortkut: 3 (Raposa, Jawneh, Ants!)
Abstain: 3 (Major Isoor, The Flame, Zell 17)
Ants!: 1 (shortkut)
Cole: 1 (Holly)
Fool's Requiem: 1 (VashTheStampede)
Major Isoor: 1 (Fool's Requiem)

Yet to vote: 4 (@Warp, @canadaguy, @God., @Cole )

even if you are voting to abstain please make a post indicating that so you don't get an inactivity tally against you!

TWELVE HOURS UNTIL NIGHTFALL

 

[Cole]

Usually there are context clues and hints like who was saved/attempted to be saved. Literally all the wolves have to do is be mostly quiet and there is nothing to suspect them. No clues to make an informed guess

there are still context clues, except in the thread. and as canadaguy said, if they're being quiet and not active in the thread, that is ALSO information. kut you know this, you've played a lot with me, we've been on the bad guys together, and civis together, and we've run this exact strategy. you KNOW a day 1 vote is silly, and you being so adamant does have me hugely suspicious.

Yeah but that's still them giving information. At some point the folks trying to hide in the dark corners and not be seen look suspicious

exactly.

this is a poker game, lets be honest, and shortkut (and canadaguy) are perfectly capable of inferring reads from text chat, from the way someone plays. we'll get all the info we need JUST from this thread.

 

[Cole]

CURRENT TALLY (apologies if i missed your vote, let me know if i did, also if you abstain make sure you bold that too, there are a couple of people i am operating under the assumption that they are abstaining)

shortkut: 3 (Raposa, Jawneh, Ants!)
Abstain: 3 (Cole, Major Isoor, The Flame)
Ants!: 1 (shortkut)
Cole: 1 (Holly)
Fool's Requiem: 1 (VashTheStampede)
Major Isoor: 1 (Fool's Requiem)

Yet to vote: 4 (@Warp, @canadaguy, @Zell 17, @God.)

even if you are voting to abstain please make a post indicating that so you don't get an inactivity tally against you!

TWELVE HOURS UNTIL NIGHTFALL

to be clear, that almost certainly is my vote, but I don't think as of yet I've locked in a vote completely, have I? I was waiting to see how the day plays out, I may often vote in the last hours, just FYI.

 

[Fire Queen]

to be clear, that almost certainly is my vote, but I don't think as of yet I've locked in a vote completely, have I? I was waiting to see how the day plays out, I may often vote in the last hours, just FYI.

noted, and the tally has been edited to reflect this

 

[Dewey]

I forgot how hard these make me think, especially when I'm trying to remember how everyone used to play. Coles words are as influencing as I remember, and I'm definitely leaning with him to abstain for the first day vote. But I'm also at the office and have a lot of thread to read when I get home so that could very well change

 

[shortkut]

there are still context clues, except in the thread. and as canadaguy said, if they're being quiet and not active in the thread, that is ALSO information. kut you know this, you've played a lot with me, we've been on the bad guys together, and civis together, and we've run this exact strategy. you KNOW a day 1 vote is silly, and you being so adamant does have me hugely suspicious.

exactly.

this is a poker game, lets be honest, and shortkut (and canadaguy) are perfectly capable of inferring reads from text chat, from the way someone plays. we'll get all the info we need JUST from this thread.

I’m adamant that I am voting for ants and there a negligible difference to whatever we choose. People want to vote abstain I don’t care

 

[Cole]

I’m adamant that I am voting for ants and there a negligible difference to whatever we choose. People want to vote abstain I don’t care

I understand, but you're not just adamant about your vote for Ants, your adamant that someone should be lynched today. and I think that's just a misplay. I understand what you and Holly and others have said, I "get" why youd want to "take a day from the wolves", but by the same token, the odds are not in our favor on day 1, every day the odds get better as the wolves kill a civi, every day we get more information from who and what is posted in this thread. but day 1? we have a 78% chance of picking a civilian today if someone is lynched at random.

would you go all in a poker hand with a 22% chance to bust out? because right this second it seems like you are a target because of your adamancy, and if you are a civi, I'd rather have you around.

 

[shortkut]

I understand, but you're not just adamant about your vote for Ants, your adamant that someone should be lynched today. and I think that's just a misplay. I understand what you and Holly and others have said, I "get" why youd want to "take a day from the wolves", but by the same token, the odds are not in our favor on day 1, every day the odds get better as the wolves kill a civi, every day we get more information from who and what is posted in this thread. but day 1? we have a 78% chance of picking a civilian today if someone is lynched at random.

would you go all in a poker hand with a 22% chance to bust out? because right this second it seems like you are a target because of your adamancy, and if you are a civi, I'd rather have you around.

The odds will never be in our favor until we get down to 6 players or fewer. Yes the odds will get better, but there will always be a greater chance to hit a civilian.

Sometimes going all-in on the first hand is a winning strategy for online poker n00bs

 

[Cole]

yes, the odds will always be in the wolves favor, thats the whole purpose of the game.

but, just as in poker, you have to choose your moment to make the gamble, and the time to choose is when the odds are the best possible chance. if we wait until tomorrow, it already gets us to a 30% chance of not being wrong, day 3 up to a 35% chance of being right.

no, the odds will never favor the civilians if we randomly choose, that is 100% true.

which is why we need as much information as possible and the best possible chance of success.

day 1: ZERO information, and a 25% chance of being right.
day 2: SOME information, who talked, what did they say, who died from the wolves overnight, and a 30% chance of being right.
day 3: even more information, who talked, who died this time, and a 35% chance of being right.

the odds get better every day, and day 1 we have the worst possible chance.

going all in on the first hand is almost never a valid strategy unless you have the nuts, and right now, we don't even have a pair.

 

[shortkut]

yes, the odds will always be in the wolves favor, thats the whole purpose of the game.

but, just as in poker, you have to choose your moment to make the gamble, and the time to choose is when the odds are the best possible chance. if we wait until tomorrow, it already gets us to a 30% chance of not being wrong, day 3 up to a 35% chance of being right.

no, the odds will never favor the civilians if we randomly choose, that is 100% true.

which is why we need as much information as possible and the best possible chance of success.

day 1: ZERO information, and a 25% chance of being right.
day 2: SOME information, who talked, what did they say, who died from the wolves overnight, and a 30% chance of being right.
day 3: even more information, who talked, who died this time, and a 35% chance of being right.

the odds get better every day, and day 1 we have the worst possible chance.

going all in on the first hand is almost never a valid strategy unless you have the nuts, and right now, we don't even have a pair.

Assuming we abstain, we go from 3 wolves out of 14 people = 21.4% chance of hitting wolves to 3 wolves out of 13 people = 23.1% chance.

Waiting doesn’t even increase our accuracy by 2%. As someone who has played poker as well as you have, and who knows statistics as well as you do, you seem to be purposefully misrepresenting the odds to prove your point, because I know you are smart enough to know how they work.

The difference is negligible and waiting only benefits the wolves because they get a guaranteed kill. If we kill a wolf, it goes to 2/13 which is a 15.4% chance to kill a wolf. Our odds of hitting a civilian increase! I guess we should abstain day 2 if we get a wolf day 1

 

[canadaguy]

Shorty seems to really really really want to kill someone today on the off chance we might pick a wolf.

Like really really wants to.

 

[Cole]

Assuming we abstain, we go from 3 wolves out of 14 people = 21.4% chance of hitting wolves to 3 wolves out of 13 people = 23.1% chance.

Waiting doesn’t even increase our accuracy by 2%. As someone who has played poker as well as you have, and who knows statistics as well as you do, you seem to be purposefully misrepresenting the odds to prove your point, because I know you are smart enough to know how they work.

The difference is negligible and waiting only benefits the wolves because they get a guaranteed kill. If we kill a wolf, it goes to 2/13 which is a 15.4% chance to kill a wolf. Our odds of hitting a civilian increase! I guess we should abstain day 2 if we get a wolf day 1

i will concede that my math was bad (math is not my strong suit) (basically I kept mathing for 14 people even though we'd have 13 left, my mistake.

but, an increase in odds is still an increase in odds man. you know this, the turn card in poker can make your odds go from 1% to 5%.

the difference is NOT negligible, especially when you factor in every single day we will get more information from this thread.

you are being STRANGELY adamant about taking a random vote, and its starting to sketch me out.

 

[Zell 17]

Voting Abstain officially

 

[shortkut]

Shorty seems to really really really want to kill someone today on the off chance we might pick a wolf.

Like really really wants to.

Im mostly just opposed to how opposed Cole is to voting. I just wanted to vote for @Ants! like I said I would in interest thread

 

[Cole]

Im mostly just opposed to how opposed Cole is to voting. I just wanted to vote for @Ants! like I said I would in interest thread

BULLSHIT its on me, man. lol

You've been saying since your first post you were adamant about voting at random, saying how valid a strategy it is.

Don't walk it back and put the blame on me now. You made your bed, you are INSISITANT on a day 1 vote, back up your words.

 

[shortkut]

BULLSHIT its on me, man. lol

You've been saying since your first post you were adamant about voting at random, saying how valid a strategy it is.

Don't walk it back and put the blame on me now. You made your bed, you are INSISITANT on a day 1 vote, back up your words.

I’m insistent on myself voting. You’re making it out that it is clear as day that you should abstain. I do not think it is that clear cut, so I’m playing devils advocate

 

[Cole]

I’m insistent on myself voting. You’re making it out that it is clear as day that you should abstain. I do not think it is that clear cut, so I’m playing devils advocate

it IS clear as day that you should abstain, and as evident in the thread, more people agree that abstaining day 1 is a better strategy than voting.

You have not been just insistent on "yourself voting", you've been insistent that a random day 1 vote is important.

but now you're walking it back because you see a lot of people disagreeing and its making you look suspicious.

but i mean, aren't you just as valid a random day 1 vote as anyone? so you should welcome that right? if you're a wolf, you prove your own point. if you're a civi, you prove mine.

 

[shortkut]

it IS clear as day that you should abstain, and as evident in the thread, more people agree that abstaining day 1 is a better strategy than voting.

You have not been just insistent on "yourself voting", you've been insistent that a random day 1 vote is important.

but now you're walking it back because you see a lot of people disagreeing and its making you look suspicious.

but i mean, aren't you just as valid a random day 1 vote as anyone? so you should welcome that right? if you're a wolf, you prove your own point. if you're a civi, you prove mine.

I never told anyone not to vote for me. I’m not looking for self preservation. Without roles, voting day 1 makes just as much sense as not, as there will be minimal information to gain. When there are roles, abstaining makes more sense. This wolf game does not have any special roles. It’s important to look at each game individually and not treat them all the same.

Since day one I’ve been saying it doesn’t matter, the difference is negligible. I’m not advocating that you need to lynch someone, just advocating that you are wrong that we mustn’t

 

[Cole]

I never told anyone not to vote for me. I’m not looking for self preservation. Without roles, voting day 1 makes just as much sense as not, as there will be minimal information to gain. When there are roles, abstaining makes more sense. This wolf game does not have any special roles. It’s important to look at each game individually and not treat them all the same.

Since day one I’ve been saying it doesn’t matter, the difference is negligible. I’m not advocating that you need to lynch someone, just advocating that you are wrong that we mustn’t

no it *doesnt* make "as much sense as not". and you keep flip flopping your position. "I just voted for ants I dont care what anyone else does" "also it's stupid to not vote day 1" "but also I didnt say we definitely need to day 1" "but also Coleman is insisting that we shouldnt, I totally am not insisting anything".

defend your position or admit you were wrong.

because this flip flopping is doing you no favors, and if you're a civi, I really don't want you gone.

other roles or no, we *lose* is we randomly vote today unless we manage to get a wolf. and the odds of that are not in our favor.

slightly better or not, tomorrow th e odds will be better and there will be even more information to go on. any kill the wolves do would give us some information to read off of. iff the kill is a "nobody", someone not talking a lot, that would imply certain people. if the kill is someone more active, that would imply certain people.

there is more informaiton every day. THIS day, there is none. and you not only locked in your vote within minutes of the thread, but then doubled down and can now no longer change it. You *ARE* adamant about killing someone first day, and that just looks suspicious.

 

[shortkut]

no it *doesnt* make "as much sense as not". and you keep flip flopping your position. "I just voted for ants I dont care what anyone else does" "also it's stupid to not vote day 1" "but also I didnt say we definitely need to day 1" "but also Coleman is insisting that we shouldnt, I totally am not insisting anything".

defend your position or admit you were wrong.

because this flip flopping is doing you no favors, and if you're a civi, I really don't want you gone.

other roles or no, we *lose* is we randomly vote today unless we manage to get a wolf. and the odds of that are not in our favor.

slightly better or not, tomorrow th e odds will be better and there will be even more information to go on. any kill the wolves do would give us some information to read off of. iff the kill is a "nobody", someone not talking a lot, that would imply certain people. if the kill is someone more active, that would imply certain people.

there is more informaiton every day. THIS day, there is none. and you not only locked in your vote within minutes of the thread, but then doubled down and can now no longer change it. You *ARE* adamant about killing someone first day, and that just looks suspicious.

Where is that information going to come for tomorrow? We have information that n who is talking and who is quiet today. We also have information on who is agreeing with whom today. Tomorrow will be the same thing. There is no new source of information.

There is no conflict anywhere in this thread but me or you. If anyone else else dies, it doesn’t shed much light if any on the killer. If one of us dies, it makes the other more suspicious. Other than that, the information we have today is the same as we will have tomorrow.

My position has been consistent. I am voting for ants because I said I would. There is no compelling reason with the way wolf volume 1 is running to vote for anyone or no one over a vote for ants. It literally makes no difference

 

[Cole]

the information comes from WHO dies, who was talking to that person in the thread, why would t hey kill such and such. theres a LOT of information, that's how this game is played.

even games with other roles don't guarantee extra information.

"oh I'm the doctor and I protected shortkut last night!", do we know for a fact that that's what happened? of course not.

we read, we analyze bluffs, we anticipate movements.

you've played this game before. you know how it works, WE'VE DONE IT TOGETHER.

Edit: I did not say we w ould have some kind of magical definitive answer tomorrow. Just that we would have *more* informaion tomorrow than we do today. this is a 100% random vote. Tomorrow will NOT be 100% random, even if its 99% random still.

My chance is simple, we play with the best possible odds. and today is not the day to go all in.

 

[Jawneh]

Lets look at if day 1 voting with our current rules is worth it with also noting that we have no special roles to spice things up.

Voting day 1, at best townies will get 6 votes if two previous votes hit wolves. So on day 7 we would be down to 2 remaining and at that point the lone wolf wins. At worst, only 4 votes as by day 5 there will be 6 people remaining and 3 of them are wolves.

Not voting day 1, at best townies will get also 6 votes if two previous votes hit wolves. The difference is that on day 7 there would be 2 townies and a lone wolf to try to figure things out. At worst, again 4 votes, with difference being that day 5 there's 7 people with 4 townies to 3 wolves.

Without actually doing proper math for all the cases, it does look like, and I'm assuming, that it is statistically slightly more beneficial to townies to abstain day 1 as there will be less bodies to vote for on day 2. The game will be no less longer day wise no matter which way we end up going though. And I'm not going to touch anything about information gathering as I got no clue how to formula that into stats.

With that, I'll switch my vote from kut to abstain.

 

[Cole]

Lets look at if day 1 voting with our current rules is worth it with also noting that we have no special roles to spice things up.

Voting day 1, at best townies will get 6 votes if two previous votes hit wolves. So on day 7 we would be down to 2 remaining and at that point the lone wolf wins. At worst, only 4 votes as by day 5 there will be 6 people remaining and 3 of them are wolves.

Not voting day 1, at best townies will get also 6 votes if two previous votes hit wolves. The difference is that on day 7 there would be 2 townies and a lone wolf to try to figure things out. At worst, again 4 votes, with difference being that day 5 there's 7 people with 4 townies to 3 wolves.

Without actually doing proper math for all the cases, it does look like, and I'm assuming, that it is statistically slightly more beneficial to townies to abstain day 1 as there will be less bodies to vote for on day 2. The game will be no less longer day wise no matter which way we end up going though. And I'm not going to touch anything about information gathering as I got no clue how to formula that into stats.

With that, I'll switch my vote from kut to abstain.

EXACTLY.

even if the odds are only BARELY better for day 2, it's still better. and every day after that.

the early game of wolf or mafia is ALWAYS going to favor the bad guys. that's the whole point. the smaller group has the advantage. so we need to make the best possible attempt to only lynch wolves. the more civis we lynch, the easier it is for the wolves to win. I've won COUNTLESS games as the bad guy by convincing people to just make one stupid vote. there is nothing better than winning on a DAY PHASE as a wolf, getting the town to lynch the last civi that keeps the votes even. voting day 1 only assists that.

 

[Cole]

I am not sure how much time I will have the rest of the night to chat and play as I have to leave in about an hour.

hopefully I'll still be involved in the discussion until the day ends.

but *just in case* I will officially vote abstain right now just in case.

if something crazy comes up, I'll change it at the last minute.

I don't know if shortkut is guilty, if he's just trying to stir the pot, genuinely thinks he's right, or is just playing dumb.

he's acting shady but that can just be his game too.

 

[canadaguy]

Lets look at if day 1 voting with our current rules is worth it with also noting that we have no special roles to spice things up.

Voting day 1, at best townies will get 6 votes if two previous votes hit wolves. So on day 7 we would be down to 2 remaining and at that point the lone wolf wins. At worst, only 4 votes as by day 5 there will be 6 people remaining and 3 of them are wolves.

Not voting day 1, at best townies will get also 6 votes if two previous votes hit wolves. The difference is that on day 7 there would be 2 townies and a lone wolf to try to figure things out. At worst, again 4 votes, with difference being that day 5 there's 7 people with 4 townies to 3 wolves.

Without actually doing proper math for all the cases, it does look like, and I'm assuming, that it is statistically slightly more beneficial to townies to abstain day 1 as there will be less bodies to vote for on day 2. The game will be no less longer day wise no matter which way we end up going though. And I'm not going to touch anything about information gathering as I got no clue how to formula that into stats.

With that, I'll switch my vote from kut to abstain.

This is really good analysis. Best and worst lynching scenarios both favor waiting today out.


There's probably some game theory analysis like this you could do every day and figure out optimal strats. Might say we should only lynch every 2nd day or something lol.

 

[Cole]

This is really good analysis. Best and worst lynching scenarios both favor waiting today out.


There's probably some game theory analysis like this you could do every day and figure out optimal strats. Might say we should only lynch every 2nd day or something lol.

yup, this is one of those... risk vs reward things for sure.

if you were to analyze this down to its core in terms of game theory, the townies should never vote unless there is SERIOUS suspicion or guilt found. becuase accidentally lynching civilians is the easiest way for wolves to win.

but obviously that's not always feasable, the games would last too long, and in order to win you *HAVE* to lynch.

but day 1 is such low odds of hitting a wolf with nothing to base it off, it's just not worth.

 

[Fire Queen]

UPDATED VOTE TALLY

Abstain: 6 (Major Isoor, The Flame, Zell 17, God., Cole, Jawneh)
shortkut: 2 (Raposa, Ants!)
Ants!: 1 (shortkut)
Cole: 1 (Holly)
Fool's Requiem: 1 (VashTheStampede)
Major Isoor: 1 (Fool's Requiem)

Yet to vote: 2 (@Warp, @canadaguy)

day phase will end in either ~6 hours or whenever all votes are in, whichever comes first. doesn't seem like anyone is gonna get got but i'll wait for all the votes just in case

 

[Zell 17]

yup, this is one of those... risk vs reward things for sure.

if you were to analyze this down to its core in terms of game theory, the townies should never vote unless there is SERIOUS suspicion or guilt found. becuase accidentally lynching civilians is the easiest way for wolves to win.

but obviously that's not always feasable, the games would last too long, and in order to win you *HAVE* to lynch.

but day 1 is such low odds of hitting a wolf with nothing to base it off, it's just not worth.

Serious question. In a game with absolutely no information, how can you ever really have serious suspicion?

 

[Cole]

Serious question. In a game with absolutely no information, how can you ever really have serious suspicion?

that makes it harder for sure. without other roles, there won't ever be guaranteed suspicion. but we can make the best possible inferences.

for a game like this, an entirely *random* lynch is pointless. we have to make the best choices with available information and hope were right.

 

[shortkut]

Serious question. In a game with absolutely no information, how can you ever really have serious suspicion?

That was my whole point

 

[shortkut]

Tomorrow, please lay out all the new information gained and explain it to me like I’m 5

 

[Cole]

That was my whole point

I understand it was your point but you seem like you don't wanna hear mine. I understand there will never be guaranteed suspicion. but right now there is  ZERO, at least tomorrow there will be *some*. it's not a lot but it's more than none.

Tomorrow, please lay out all the new information gained and explain it to me like I’m 5

gladly. you're good at this game so I can't tell if you're playing dumb and trying to play a long game, or you're just being a bit silly. you've done this before. but if you want me to tell you everything I picked up, I'll do a full God damn analysis on every single player to when day 2 starts.

 

[Zell 17]

Tomorrow, please lay out all the new information gained and explain it to me like I’m 5

I don’t even care if this dude is a wolf I’m keeping him around for the sarcasm value

 

[shortkut]

I understand it was your point but you seem like you don't wanna hear mine. I understand there will never be guaranteed suspicion. but right now there is  ZERO, at least tomorrow there will be *some*. it's not a lot but it's more than none.

gladly. you're good at this game so I can't tell if you're playing dumb and trying to play a long game, or you're just being a bit silly. you've done this before. but if you want me to tell you everything I picked up, I'll do a full God damn analysis on every single player to when day 2 starts.

I honestly would like that. I do not believe there is as much information available as you seem to believe. If I’m wrong, I’d like to know what I missed

 

[Zell 17]

I'll do a full God damn analysis on every single player to when day 2 starts.

Awfully confident you’re making it to day 2!

 

[shortkut]

I don’t even care if this dude is a wolf I’m keeping him around for the sarcasm value

Awfully confident you’re making it to day 2!

Do you have inside information?

 

[Raine]

Anyone busting out math, statistics and especially charts & graphs (it'll happen eventually!) is 100% a baddie. Not necessarily a wolf, but, a baddie all the same. Source: am baddie.

I mean, look, it's like this. Statistically speaking you're more likely to hit a townie than a wolf. If you start with 14 players, which would be 13 insofar as every townie is concerned, you have 3/13*100 = 23.07% chance of hitting a wolf aiming at complete random. If you do not kill someone today, the wolves will aim for someone in the middle of the pack and we'll repeat this Cole vs kut thing tomorrow. No concrete information to bad had, no power roles to press down on the scale.

If you kill someone today, and it turns out that that person was a townie (whoops!), you still gain information. Not, y'know, particularly good information, but it's more than you otherwise have. There's considerations to be had for keeping the thread active and not killing off the talkers, but also... just, blood for the goddamn blood god?

That being said, voting for shortkut. You would not be my first choice, probably, but you're in 2nd place so that's the only option available. [insert salute emoji here there's too much shit to scroll through to find one]

 

[VashTheStampede]

I mean, hard to think of a more awesome reason than BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD

 

[shortkut]

I mean, hard to think of a more awesome reason than BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD

People have wanted me dead for lesser reasons. I honestly couldn’t complain if that’s how I die

 

[canadaguy]

yup, this is one of those... risk vs reward things for sure.

if you were to analyze this down to its core in terms of game theory, the townies should never vote unless there is SERIOUS suspicion or guilt found. becuase accidentally lynching civilians is the easiest way for wolves to win.

but obviously that's not always feasable, the games would last too long, and in order to win you *HAVE* to lynch.

but day 1 is such low odds of hitting a wolf with nothing to base it off, it's just not worth.

The game theory analysis wouldnt necessarily say there's a benefit, but moreso that abstaining a vote or voting a townie doesn't change the long term game prospect.

For instance, a situation where there are 5 players, 3 townies and 2 wolves. Abstaining doesn't help, since even if there is no lynch, the wolves kill that night and win. Lynching is the optimal strategy, even if you have no suspicion, since its the only one with a possibility of not losing

Anyways I vote to abstain today's vote

 

[Cole]

I honestly would like that. I do not believe there is as much information available as you seem to believe. If I’m wrong, I’d like to know what I missed

I will happily do it if I am alive tomorrow. mid day of day 2 I will post an analysis of all players with their wolfavility suspiciouson

Awfully confident you’re making it to day 2!

future posts will be amended with an if, see above

Anyone busting out math, statistics and especially charts & graphs (it'll happen eventually!) is 100% a baddie. Not necessarily a wolf, but, a baddie all the same. Source: am baddie.

I mean, look, it's like this. Statistically speaking you're more likely to hit a townie than a wolf. If you start with 14 players, which would be 13 insofar as every townie is concerned, you have 3/13*100 = 23.07% chance of hitting a wolf aiming at complete random. If you do not kill someone today, the wolves will aim for someone in the middle of the pack and we'll repeat this Cole vs kut thing tomorrow. No concrete information to bad had, no power roles to press down on the scale.

If you kill someone today, and it turns out that that person was a townie (whoops!), you still gain information. Not, y'know, particularly good information, but it's more than you otherwise have. There's considerations to be had for keeping the thread active and not killing off the talkers, but also... just, blood for the goddamn blood god?

That being said, voting for shortkut. You would not be my first choice, probably, but you're in 2nd place so that's the only option available. [insert salute emoji here there's too much shit to scroll through to find one]

your post all relies on the same false assumption that shortkut has, thst there's no information to glean from a wolf kill and some posts.

 

[Raine]

your post all relies on the same false assumption that shortkut has, thst there's no information to glean from a wolf kill and some posts.

Everything reveals something, sure. But killing someone here and now is better unless the wolves target someone of note. But they're not going to kill you or shortkut, they're not going to kill the quiet and "suspicious" people, they're going to kill someone in the middle.

I'm not a wolf this time. But, I'm always a wolf. And that sounded an awful lot like the threat of charts and graphs!

 

[shortkut]

Everything reveals something, sure. But killing someone here and now is better unless the wolves target someone of note. But they're not going to kill you or shortkut, they're not going to kill the quiet and "suspicious" people, they're going to kill someone in the middle.

I'm not a wolf this time. But, I'm always a wolf. And that sounded an awful lot like the threat of charts and graphs!

Charts and graphs means: