Sensitive First Presidential Debate of 2024

[shortkut]

the wolves have guns.

The wolf/mafia crossover @Zell 17 has been promising

 

[Fool's Requiem]

The wolf/mafia crossover @Zell 17 has been promising

oh god

 

[Mark]

I'm not primarily talking about individual person on person crime where someone wants to harm you explicitly. Yeah, that's going to be hard to avoid either way if someone is in your face.

But... Saying mass shootings are "normal" and just something to deal with is fucking wild. I'll never understand how anyone could frame it as "be more aware at all times" without realizing how messed up that is.

The whole point of civilized society is so we don't have to be constantly looking out for wolves while out gathering vegetables. It's antithetical to the entire point of ( *gestures broadly* ) this. But it's even worse when the wolves have guns.

And yes, I know an AR-15 is a specific make and type of assault rifle. It's generally a pedantic differentiation.

Nah, I’m not necessarily saying that mass shootings specifically are “normal” beyond a semi-sarcastic tone because of their frequency, but what is normal is that there will always be the unpredictable presence of individuals that just want to do harm to others. That, unfortunately, is normal, because they will always exist regardless of the measures to prevent or consequences in the aftermath. My point is… in this quest for a civilized society, we’ve sort-of forgotten that at the end of the day… people can still be unpredictable and violent with or without provocation, so we’ve kinda settled in this sense of living in a world where we’re untouchable.

 

[Fool's Requiem]

What's the general consensus on VP Harris?

 

[Leandros?]

Drunk cop bitch

 

[Avenger]

ATTENTION THE GREAT AVENGER HAS SOMETHING TO SAY

Avenger loved how they tried the do the narrative that kamala would always be in the room with joe and side by side with him making decisions. Meanwhile, Avenger barely sees this woman doing anything.
THE GREAT AVENGER HAS SPOKEN

 

[Mark]

What's the general consensus on VP Harris?

Personally, I think she’s scum. You don’t have to go back further than a decade to give yourself enough reasons to come to the same conclusion I did. She’s another one like Pelosi, just look for her work beyond Washington.

 

[Ben]

What's the general consensus on VP Harris?

The other day when I read something saying "Vice President Harris", it took me a few seconds to remember who that meant. So... Not exactly favorable.

That's without even touching all the "did a bunch of bad shit as a prosecutor" stuff that I've not researched enough to speak on.

I don't generally consider her appointment a win for neither African Americans, nor women, honestly.

 

[Rachel]

they are hiding her purposefully. I think she is articulate, wants the same things as the Dem party, and can be a decent attack dog (one of the jobs of the VP) but she's got some problems, one of which is her years as a prosecutor. Ordinarily you would see the VP stepping in as the next possible heir apparent. And yeah, some of that is because she's not going to do that for an incumbent. But also.

I also stand by my opinion that we are not ready for a woman president. We just aren't. I say that as a woman (obviously). At least, none who I can think of at this moment. I am would be over the moon to be proven wrong. What COULD swing that is the fed up women out there over abortion, IVF, and rights like that. I live in Kansas and we bitch slapped the abortion amendment.

 

[Avenger]

they are hiding her purposefully. I think she is articulate, wants the same things as the Dem party, and can be a decent attack dog (one of the jobs of the VP) but she's got some problems, one of which is her years as a prosecutor. Ordinarily you would see the VP stepping in as the next possible heir apparent. And yeah, some of that is because she's not going to do that for an incumbent. But also.

I also stand by my opinion that we are not ready for a woman president. We just aren't. I say that as a woman (obviously). At least, none who I can think of at this moment. I am would be over the moon to be proven wrong. What COULD swing that is the fed up women out there over abortion, IVF, and rights like that. I live in Kansas and we bitch slapped the abortion amendment.

ATTENTION THE GREAT AVENGER HAS SOMETHING TO SAY

For america not to be ready for a woman president but can vote for reality stars and actors and overtly mentally unstable men over and over is very evident that we are a shit hole country.
THE GREAT AVENGER HAS SPOKEN

 

[Ancle Suck]

I Biden steps aside (and again, it NEEDS to be him that does it) and Harris isn't the nominee, women of color will riot. They vote D at higher clips than every other group out there. So that would be basically the only option.

She also has lower approval ratings than either Trump or Biden. So right now the best hope the Ds have is Biden having a better second debate.

 

[Rachel]

I just learned that the convention, which takes place Aug 19, is AFTER Ohio's ballot deadline, Aug 7. Ohio has a Repub governor and will probably not budge on that deadline. So, Dems are moving ahead with a virtual roll call (as planned prior to all of this)--which means he will be the nominee prior to the actual convention. This will likely head off some of the thoughts floated around in this thread. Having it be contested will be super duper unlikely as a virtual thing.

 

[Ancle Suck]

I just learned that the convention, which takes place Aug 19, is AFTER Ohio's ballot deadline, Aug 7. Ohio has a Repub governor and will probably not budge on that deadline. So, Dems are moving ahead with a virtual roll call (as planned prior to all of this)--which means he will be the nominee prior to the actual convention. This will likely head off some of the thoughts floated around in this thread. Having it be contested will be super duper unlikely as a virtual thing.

He actually can't budge on that deadline on his own, and the very Republican legislature there has already said they won't. They're doing the virtual roll call early. If they change the nominee at the convention that person won't be on the ballot in Ohio and it'll hurt Sherrod Brown's reelection (he'll run ahead of the D presidential nominee by several points).

That would 100% result in losing the Senate.

 

[Smacktard]

I Biden steps aside (and again, it NEEDS to be him that does it) and Harris isn't the nominee, women of color will riot.

Do women of color even give a shit about Kamala? From what I understand, the black community doesn't care for her. Seems bold to assume there would be rioting over her not being next in line for the Presidency. She's a tepid candidate.

 

[Mark]

Do women of color even give a shit about Kamala? From what I understand, the black community doesn't care for her. Seems bold to assume there would be rioting over her not being next in line for the Presidency. She's a tepid candidate.

Every one that I know doesn’t exactly have the same reverence for her that they did for Obama when he was elected as the first black president. I don’t think that it’s necessarily because the novelty wore off, I think it’s because of how disingenuous she comes across while attempting to pander to them. There’s a stigma surrounding women like her that they feel superior, or have sold out so to speak. Take a look at that talk show host and comedian Wendy Williams for example… people turned on her real quick, and haven’t turned back regardless of her health issues. Why? She’s a successful black woman that used her platform to further her superiority over others, rather than using her platform to lift others up.

 

[Ancle Suck]

Do women of color even give a shit about Kamala? From what I understand, the black community doesn't care for her. Seems bold to assume there would be rioting over her not being next in line for the Presidency. She's a tepid candidate.

Social media says yes.

Have already seen "if they try to put another old white dude in front of the current number 2, a black woman..." Is something I've seen multiple times

 

[Fool's Requiem]

So, Harris is bad. Which means, the best option is for Biden to just drop out and for the DMC to back someone else (preferably Warren?).

 

[Ancle Suck]

So, Harris is bad. Which means, the best option is for Biden to just drop out and for the DMC to back someone else (preferably Warren?).

Despite what people are saying right now, for the time being the best option is to see if things improve for Biden.

 

[Mark]

Despite what people are saying right now, for the time being the best option is to see if things improve for Biden.

Which, seems to be where we always end up landing… “let’s just hope it gets better”

 

[Ancle Suck]

Which, seems to be where we always end up landing… “let’s just hope it gets better”

Sadly yeah.

They have to act fast if they want to make a change. Ohio is the timeline.

 

[Smacktard]

Have already seen "if they try to put another old white dude in front of the current number 2, a black woman..." Is something I've seen multiple times

I don't buy it. I don't trust a couple of loud voices on social media amplified by bot farms. My wife's perception (from her social media circles) is that the black community doesn't really give a shit about Kamala, and she only uses her blackness when politically convenient while doing nothing for the actual black community.

(Quite a while back) Harris was polling below Biden, Sanders, and even briefly Warren.

 

[Mark]

Sadly yeah.

They have to act fast if they want to make a change. Ohio is the timeline.

Which doesn’t really mesh for the government as a whole’s “talk fast, act slow” approach.

I don't buy it. I don't trust a couple of loud voices on social media amplified by bot farms. My wife's perception (from her social media circles) is that the black community doesn't really give a shit about Kamala, and she only uses her blackness when politically convenient while doing nothing for the actual black community.

(Quite a while back) Harris was polling below Biden, Sanders, and even briefly Warren.

Which basically aligns with everything I’ve heard from black and Hispanic women.

 

[Ancle Suck]

I don't buy it. I don't trust a couple of loud voices on social media amplified by bot farms. My wife's perception (from her social media circles) is that the black community doesn't really give a shit about Kamala, and she only uses her blackness when politically convenient while doing nothing for the actual black community.

(Quite a while back) Harris was polling below Biden, Sanders, and even briefly Warren.

I'm taking about the social media of the black women friends I have in the American South, not randos on twitter.

Yeah, she polled very badly and is a bad candidate, but my friends from HBCUs have done nothing but shout their pride about one of their own being as high up as she is and second in line.

 

[Ancle Suck]

That's both men and women for the friends I have from HBCUs. My fraternity has chapters at many of the ones you've probably heard of (Howard, Morgan, etc). This is what I've seen from them.

 

[Jon]

Lmao. No clue what you want them to do. Only Biden can release his delegates. They can try and persuade, yes. But by stepping in a certain direction they are sure to kick a hornets nest. He has already said he is not dropping out.

As already pointed out by @dimmerwit, this isn't exactly true as delegates can and have voted outside this. TYPICALLY it's one delegate, not a group. Nothing at this scale. And yes, it's highly improbable unless Biden himself chooses. Just want to make sure it's known they can vote for someone other than they are pledged to. So can electoral college delegates.

They have already announced a September debate. Biden also gave a pretty competent speech since the debate. So hopefully that will be the chance.

Trump isn't going to show to that one, though. There is no need at all. And he's already hinting he won't do it. He has the wheel right now. I do agree the speech the next night was better, but let's not forget there is no where near the optics on that as there was at the debate. The debate is likely the one and only time most of the important voters will see Biden. And that was the issue and why there is even a discussion about replacing him.

I just learned that the convention, which takes place Aug 19, is AFTER Ohio's ballot deadline, Aug 7. Ohio has a Repub governor and will probably not budge on that deadline. So, Dems are moving ahead with a virtual roll call (as planned prior to all of this)--which means he will be the nominee prior to the actual convention. This will likely head off some of the thoughts floated around in this thread. Having it be contested will be super duper unlikely as a virtual thing.

This is correct (that the delegate needs to be chosen prior to the DNC), but it does not head off anything. It moves the DNC deadline up by a week is all. Instead of 6 weeks they have 5 to make a choice. I still think it's 99% likely it's still Biden. I just don't have to personally like it, but I was never a Biden fan based on his past record alone. He was just always the far lesser of two evils. I still HOPE they switch him as I think anyone else (other than Harris) has a better chance at beating Trump.

So, Harris is bad. Which means, the best option is for Biden to just drop out and for the DMC to back someone else (preferably Warren?).

Will never be Warren sadly. For the reasons I mentioned earlier. But I agree that's the best option, that he be replaced. I also agree with @Rachel that he won't be.

The best case scenario is a major shift in the polls in Biden's favor between now and September, forcing Trump to attend the second debate (which after Biden's words in North Carolina yesterday, saying "he doesn't debate well anymore" he himself may not want to), and a MUCH sharper, MUCH more animated and MUCH more defensible Biden shows up.

 

[Smacktard]

I'm taking about the social media of the black women friends I have in the American South, not randos on twitter.

Yeah, she polled very badly and is a bad candidate, but my friends from HBCUs have done nothing but shout their pride about one of their own being as high up as she is and second in line.

Fair enough. Thanks for the clarification.

 

[Smacktard]

Reports of Biden spending the weekend with his family discussing the future of his campaign, and whether he will now out of the race. Could be a nothingburger, but interesting to hear some of the BTS scenes are apparently mimicking some of our own thoughts:

'It's a mess': Biden turns to family on his path forward after his disastrous debate

Democratic leaders have stood by the president as he faces questions about his ability to defeat Trump in November. But privately, many are expressing concern.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Quagmire]

Unfortunately, though, the American way of life, the blatant disregard for others and propensity for unnecessary violence, is bleeding over into other countries. Of course, I don’t have the statistics in-hand to back that up, but I’ve been hearing about a steady rise in crime across the entirety of the UK for years. I’ve been stabbed before, and I’ve been shot at before (luckily never hit with more than a fragment), and the end game was the same… to cause harm to me. To me, that’s like choosing whether you’d want to die by fire or drowning… one’s just a little more instantaneous.

I would also blame some what inflation and cost of living that is going up around the world, and of course things like Russian disinformation tactics doesnt help

 

[Quagmire]

Reports of Biden spending the weekend with his family discussing the future of his campaign, and whether he will now out of the race. Could be a nothingburger, but interesting to hear some of the BTS scenes are apparently mimicking some of our own thoughts:

'It's a mess': Biden turns to family on his path forward after his disastrous debate

Democratic leaders have stood by the president as he faces questions about his ability to defeat Trump in November. But privately, many are expressing concern.

www.nbcnews.com

I think it would be double suicide for Biden to drop out at this point, had the DNC been prepping and showing off someone else for awhile it could have worked. Really what the DNC needs to do is advertise the fuck out of the good stuff that Biden has done and all of Trump's lies. (I am not a Biden fan, but I do think he's done some good, but fuck I want some fucking young(er) candidates). I also think Biden has a better chance of getting those older fringe votes who may actually leave Trump because as much as I hate it, older people vote at a much higher rate than younger people.

Also fucking push the whole Women's Rights issue, any woman who votes for republican is a traitor to women everywhere

 

[Smacktard]

I think it would be double suicide for Biden to drop out at this point, had the DNC been prepping and showing off someone else for awhile it could have worked. Really what the DNC needs to do is advertise the fuck out of the good stuff that Biden has done and all of Trump's lies. (I am not a Biden fan, but I do think he's done some good, but fuck I want some fucking young(er) candidates). I also think Biden has a better chance of getting those older fringe votes who may actually leave Trump because as much as I hate it, older people vote at a much higher rate than younger people.

Also fucking push the whole Women's Rights issue, any woman who votes for republican is a traitor to women everywhere

I think this would be the strategy of Biden hadn't flubbed the debate, when the race was already tight. I don't see how anyone can see his performance and think "that man is healthy and in good shape to run the country". By the end of his next term he would be 85. Anyone seriously considering him as President would have to consider that he is not especially unlikely to die during his next term.

IMO best move is to trim the fat and push a younger candidate who will continue Biden's policies. Let's be honest: the Dem vote at this point is mostly an anti-Trump vote, and a younger and more well-spoken anti-Trump would be more convincing for voters.

 

[Jon]

IMO best move is to trim the fat and push a younger candidate who will continue Biden's policies. Let's be honest: the Dem vote at this point is mostly an anti-Trump vote, and a younger and more well-spoken anti-Trump would be more convincing for voters.

I am still a huge Pete Buttigieg fan. He was the one I was pulling for in 2016, but his lack of experience hurt him as did the fact he's openly gay. It shouldn't, but it did. I don't think he's a realistic 2024 replacement, but he's higher than I thought. Among recent polling of who would likely replace Biden if he steps down?

Harris is first.
Newsom is second.
Buttigieg is third.

The female governor in... Michigan? Minnesota? Cannot for the life of me remember her name right now is 4th. And Pritzker in North Carolina is 5th.

 

[Ancle Suck]

The female governor in... Michigan? Minnesota? Cannot for the life of me remember her name right now is 4th. And Pritzker in North Carolina is 5th.

Gretchen Whitmer.

 

[Jon]

Gretchen Whitmer.

THAT'S HER! Thank you!

 

[Quagmire]

I am still a huge Pete Buttigieg fan. He was the one I was pulling for in 2016, but his lack of experience hurt him as did the fact he's openly gay. It shouldn't, but it did. I don't think he's a realistic 2024 replacement, but he's higher than I thought. Among recent polling of who would likely replace Biden if he steps down?

Harris is first.
Newsom is second.
Buttigieg is third.

The female governor in... Michigan? Minnesota? Cannot for the life of me remember her name right now is 4th. And Pritzker in North Carolina is 5th.

Is Harris really first? I thought she had a lot of baggage or is that just conservative talking points making up shit?

 

[Ancle Suck]

Is Harris really first? I thought she had a lot of baggage or is that just conservative talking points making up shit?

No one has really had to think about it lately so she's polling first right now because she's the VP and basically no other reason.

 

[Jon]

Is Harris really first? I thought she had a lot of baggage or is that just conservative talking points making up shit?

She is, and she does. The biggest reason for her is she's already on the ticket and duplicates a lot of Biden's agenda.

At least that's the reasoning I found. I don't personally like her either, but there are few politicians I do like lol

 

[Rachel]

I think this would be the strategy of Biden hadn't flubbed the debate, when the race was already tight. I don't see how anyone can see his performance and think "that man is healthy and in good shape to run the country". By the end of his next term he would be 85. Anyone seriously considering him as President would have to consider that he is not especially unlikely to die during his next term.

IMO best move is to trim the fat and push a younger candidate who will continue Biden's policies. Let's be honest: the Dem vote at this point is mostly an anti-Trump vote, and a younger and more well-spoken anti-Trump would be more convincing for voters.

IMO, no that is not the best move. There is no one prepared. It's too late. You are saying that without saying who it would be. The incumbent is still our best chance. Warren, Buttigieg, Harris, or Whitmer wouldn't win. And not having any time to vet someone could go sideways fast (thinking of Edwards)--not saying this would happen with any of the people I listed but I'd rather go with who I know has already beaten Trump. Also, figure out who of that list would actually WANT to step in. Why give your one shot of being the candidate now? Under these circumstances? If you have presidential ambitions, that's a gamble.

Remember, Harris had to drop out of the Iowa caucus because her polling was so bad, she didn't stick around at all. She had a 3% polling for supporters, tied with Andrew Yang, Tom Steyer, and Tulsi Gabbard.

My opinion, here is what should happen

1. Biden continues to make his speeches, which he has already started to do so, that showcases he is together and can even be a little fiery. He doesn't have that "cold" ever again. His staff has a clear directive on what needs to be showcased and don't "overprepare" him, but rather laser focus on attacking Trump and touting what he has accomplished.

2. Trump's felony sentencing happens. Attention is drawn to that side of it again

3. Trump finally picks his veep. I've seen that shortlist. Nothing super surprising but at least his other veep was in the traditional Repub fold. Could be another avenue of attack

4. The Dems send out any all-stars that can help stump for Biden. It has to be very careful. Figure out who would be best, where, and when. Whether that is our past nominees, Obama, maybe even Bill etc? (not sure, don't ask me, I don't know, but hopefully they know) or more local people like Abrams, governors, senators, etc. Hopefully people who are charismatic who can explain his accomplishments and the danger of Trump.

5. The September debate happens. Obviously everything here needs to happen better for Biden. Perhaps also the format or moderation will be better suited for him too. This is also assuming the debate happens

6. The veep debate happens. Harris is not loved but at least here she can tout that she is competent and not a danger to democracy.

7. Likely some kind of October surprise. Repubs might do something around Biden's son again. Maybe something in court on Trump's side. Etc etc

8. Likely what will happen is a lot of people won't vote, they'll stay at home, frustrated by the options. More than usual. But maybe that will hurt Trump more than Biden. Trump pissed off a LOT of people, and that can be a stronger feeling than reservations about a guy's age, especially when he has a veep who can step in if need be.

Is this perfect? No. But I think this is our best chance.

 

[Quagmire]

Also @Rachel very easy for Republicans and Trump to go look, Biden was their first and "best" choice and he got scared and ran away to discredit who ever would replace him

 

[Mark]

IMO, no that is not the best move. There is no one prepared. It's too late. You are saying that without saying who it would be. The incumbent is still our best chance. Warren, Buttigieg, Harris, or Whitmer wouldn't win. And not having any time to vet someone could go sideways fast (thinking of Edwards)--not saying this would happen with any of the people I listed but I'd rather go with who I know has already beaten Trump. Also, figure out who of that list would actually WANT to step in. Why give your one shot of being the candidate now? Under these circumstances? If you have presidential ambitions, that's a gamble.

Remember, Harris had to drop out of the Iowa caucus because her polling was so bad, she didn't stick around at all. She had a 3% polling for supporters, tied with Andrew Yang, Tom Steyer, and Tulsi Gabbard.

My opinion, here is what should happen

1. Biden continues to make his speeches, which he has already started to do so, that showcases he is together and can even be a little fiery. He doesn't have that "cold" ever again. His staff has a clear directive on what needs to be showcased and don't "overprepare" him, but rather laser focus on attacking Trump and touting what he has accomplished.

2. Trump's felony sentencing happens. Attention is drawn to that side of it again

3. Trump finally picks his veep. I've seen that shortlist. Nothing super surprising but at least his other veep was in the traditional Repub fold. Could be another avenue of attack

4. The Dems send out any all-stars that can help stump for Biden. It has to be very careful. Figure out who would be best, where, and when. Whether that is our past nominees, Obama, maybe even Bill etc? (not sure, don't ask me, I don't know, but hopefully they know) or more local people like Abrams, governors, senators, etc. Hopefully people who are charismatic who can explain his accomplishments and the danger of Trump.

5. The September debate happens. Obviously everything here needs to happen better for Biden. Perhaps also the format or moderation will be better suited for him too. This is also assuming the debate happens

6. The veep debate happens. Harris is not loved but at least here she can tout that she is competent and not a danger to democracy.

7. Likely some kind of October surprise. Repubs might do something around Biden's son again. Maybe something in court on Trump's side. Etc etc

8. Likely what will happen is a lot of people won't vote, they'll stay at home, frustrated by the options. More than usual. But maybe that will hurt Trump more than Biden. Trump pissed off a LOT of people, and that can be a stronger feeling than reservations about a guy's age, especially when he has a veep who can step in if need be.

Is this perfect? No. But I think this is our best chance.

That’s enough to put him behind the desk, but then what? I don’t want to wish anything on anyone, but you know how degenerative diseases like dementia and Alzheimer’s progress. Compare the Joe Biden as VP during Obama’s last term to the Joe Biden of the 2016 election, again to the Joe Biden of 2020, and finally to the Joe Biden we saw the other night. I am by no means a medical expert… but I don’t think the guy has another 4 years in the tank, and having a president die in office is the last thing this country needs. That’s not to say we “need” another 4 years with Trump either, but, we see how the sharks are now… imagine how it’ll be with an empty seat in the Oval Office. We couldn’t even deal with replacing the Speaker without a shit show because of the potential candidates, imagine how the president would be.

 

[Quagmire]

That’s enough to put him behind the desk, but then what? I don’t want to wish anything on anyone, but you know how degenerative diseases like dementia and Alzheimer’s progress. Compare the Joe Biden as VP during Obama’s last term to the Joe Biden of the 2016 election, again to the Joe Biden of 2020, and finally to the Joe Biden we saw the other night. I am by no means a medical expert… but I don’t think the guy has another 4 years in the tank, and having a president die in office is the last thing this country needs. That’s not to say we “need” another 4 years with Trump either, but, we see how the sharks are now… imagine how it’ll be with an empty seat in the Oval Office. We couldn’t even deal with replacing the Speaker without a shit show because of the potential candidates, imagine how the president would be.

Apparently it was a cold, we'll see how he does in future debates.

It wouldnt be an empty seat, the VP takes over. This isnt like the Speaker

I like both Newsom and Buttigieg, but not sure they'd be ready to take over with so little prep. I do think AOC could make a run at it in 2028, but too early for her now

 

[Mark]

Apparently it was a cold, we'll see how he does in future debates.

It wouldnt be an empty seat, the VP takes over. This isnt like the Speaker

I like both Newsom and Buttigieg, but not sure they'd be ready to take over with so little prep. I do think AOC could make a run at it in 2028, but too early for her now

It was a cold this time, though. What about all of the other times we’ve watched that guy fall apart? We can’t pretend that the dude isn’t decomposing before our eyes. He couldn’t even make it down three or four half-steps from the debate stage without Jill’s help. That’s not a cold, dude. When was the last time you had a cold that required aide walking down the steps?

 

[dimmerwit]

I didn't think AOC was yet eligible this time, but she is. Time making fools of us all.

Somewhat paradoxically, I don't think the replacement of Biden in office is as big a deal. Section 4 of the 25th Amendment gives a clear procedure and the line of succession is also clear in law.

 

[Mark]

I didn't think AOC was yet eligible this time, but she is. Time making fools of us all.

Pretty sure she’d be laughed out before she even finished filling out the form

Somewhat paradoxically, I don't think the replacement of Biden in office is as big a deal. Section 4 of the 25th Amendment gives a clear procedure and the line of succession is also clear in law.

On paper, you’re right, but in practice? Man… I dunno. I can’t have that much faith in them as a collective. Some aren’t as bad as others, some aren’t as good as others, but collectively, they’re a mess.

 

[Rachel]

That’s enough to put him behind the desk, but then what? I don’t want to wish anything on anyone, but you know how degenerative diseases like dementia and Alzheimer’s progress. Compare the Joe Biden as VP during Obama’s last term to the Joe Biden of the 2016 election, again to the Joe Biden of 2020, and finally to the Joe Biden we saw the other night. I am by no means a medical expert… but I don’t think the guy has another 4 years in the tank, and having a president die in office is the last thing this country needs. That’s not to say we “need” another 4 years with Trump either, but, we see how the sharks are now… imagine how it’ll be with an empty seat in the Oval Office. We couldn’t even deal with replacing the Speaker without a shit show because of the potential candidates, imagine how the president would be.

Then what? The VP will take over. Not worried about that. More worried about Trump winning. I truly believe if he has a serious medical event, he will step aside. And even if not? It will probably happen in his lame duck period. I would rather have a Biden transition to Harris than Trump. I really believe he would do the right thing, though. If it wasn't an immediate death event. And I am not worried about Harris at least not continuing with the administration plan.

 

[Jon]

Remember, Harris had to drop out of the Iowa caucus because her polling was so bad, she didn't stick around at all. She had a 3% polling for supporters, tied with Andrew Yang, Tom Steyer, and Tulsi Gabbard.

Yes, you are 100% right, then and now, her polling is abysmal. The only question is WHY the dems have hidden her for 3.5 years. I'm concerned they know this. She's the first VP in my memory that hasn't done shit for this term. Like at all.

1. Biden continues to make his speeches, which he has already started to do so, that showcases he is together and can even be a little fiery. He doesn't have that "cold" ever again. His staff has a clear directive on what needs to be showcased and don't "overprepare" him, but rather laser focus on attacking Trump and touting what he has accomplished.

You can't control him having a "cold" again. And we've seen his act similar to this without a cold. You didn't need Biden to do anything but call out Trumps lies, and retort with him policies and he would have demolished Trump. He couldn't do that and now the American people know it. The reps aren't saying anything. Because they know that they are in the driver's seat now. For all three branches. This isn't a time for dems to be silent. They need to attack. Fast and often. Both destroying Trump's debate AND saying the right things about Biden, which they MOSTLY are right now.

2. Trump's felony sentencing happens. Attention is drawn to that side of it again

Again, you are giving WAY to much to this. The sentencing is completely irrelevant. The verdict UNIFIED the reps. Why on Earth would sentencing be different? Especially considering he's only going to get fined. No offense, but you gotta stop thinking this has any bearing on this at all. Trump believes just as Hitler did with his Barroom Politics: doesn't matter if it's good publicity, or bad publicity. All publicity is good. He thrives on this, and so does his base.

4. The Dems send out any all-stars that can help stump for Biden. It has to be very careful. Figure out who would be best, where, and when. Whether that is our past nominees, Obama, maybe even Bill etc? (not sure, don't ask me, I don't know, but hopefully they know) or more local people like Abrams, governors, senators, etc. Hopefully people who are charismatic who can explain his accomplishments and the danger of Trump.

They are doing this already. It's not helping at the moment. And, yes, a lot of top dems are STILL saying they are having real conversations about replacing him. Jaime Raskin was the most recent today. Like it or hate it, and regardless of the end choice, this IS happening. A discussion I mean.

5. The September debate happens. Obviously everything here needs to happen better for Biden. Perhaps also the format or moderation will be better suited for him too. This is also assuming the debate happens

Again, that debate isn't happening. Biden is DESPERATE for another one. Trump doesn't need to because he's winning and any positive debate from Biden, particularly that late, is a nail in Trump's coffin. It's not happening and even the dems are preparing for things to come as if that debate doesn't exist. It simply makes no sense for Trump to do it.

6. The veep debate happens. Harris is not loved but at least here she can tout that she is competent and not a danger to democracy.

THIS is the biggest hope I have left, honestly. I don't like Harris, but she's a former lawyer, and as someone with a legal mind, I appreciate that she is capable of talking her way into and out of predicaments. None of the VP names on the right stand a real chance against her. Because they'll peddle the same BS lies like Trump, and Harris isn't 81. She'll destroy those claims, and hopefully tout positive policy. What Biden needed to do.

7. Likely some kind of October surprise. Repubs might do something around Biden's son again. Maybe something in court on Trump's side. Etc etc

Trump isn't going to court again. The Supreme Court is going to kick back the presidential immunity case, Fani Willis is in REAL jeopardy of being tossed off her case in Georgia, and Aileen Cannon is a Trump crony who is either going to be forcefully recused or overturned on appeal. ALL of which will not happen before November. Trump is not going to face judgment on any of the three more dead to rights charges.

8. Likely what will happen is a lot of people won't vote, they'll stay at home, frustrated by the options. More than usual. But maybe that will hurt Trump more than Biden. Trump pissed off a LOT of people, and that can be a stronger feeling than reservations about a guy's age, especially when he has a veep who can step in if need be.

Historically, this is inaccurate...

Grassroot reps go out to vote each and every presidential election. Most conservatives do. Same for straight dems. It's the independents that typically will vote third party or not at all in these situations. And historically, this SEVERELY benefits the republicans. I WISH that weren't the case. But it is. It's why there is always a push, every cycle, to get the independent voters, particularly in the 5-6 swing states. It's why there isn't a lot of stumping elsewhere. Because each side has their locked in states that aren't a threat to be lost.

{EDIT} Meant to add this too. Republicans turn out each election to vote their presidential elect in greater numbers. So in a status quo, reps tend to have higher turnout. It's the dems trying to get their registered voters to show up. Just to pull even. Too often they are using independents to make make up the dems that DON'T go out AS WELL AS the ones needed in swing states.

And it's why COVID HELPED Biden in 2020. The most people ever voted. Close to 150 million if I recall. You'll never see that number again, I don't think. Because the reason was mail in voting. And THAT typically benefits dems hard core. It's why Trump bitched about it and how voting should only be one day. And the MAGA assholes worked hard over the last 4 years to ensure that wouldn't happen again. Another thing that seriously helps the reps.

Apparently it was a cold, we'll see how he does in future debates.

They said that is was. And I buy it for the clearing of the throat early. But the staring blankly, not being able to finish sentences, not being able to remember a thought... this wasn't due to the cold no matter how they want to spin in. And Americans know that.

Also, small illnesses like that are more detrimental to the elderly. I almost wish they'd say (lie if they need to) that he had a UTI. UTIs in the elderly present with dementia symptoms. I watched it real time in my grandmother when she got older. At least passing it off as a UTI would generate the idea "OH! Well that all makes sense now. He's on some antibiotics and that'll clear things up!" And then he gets fiery again and reinforces it. But that's just me. If I were trying to save his campaign.

Pretty sure she’d be laughed out before she even finished filling out the form

She's also a "socialist" and suffers from the same issues Warren and Sanders do. The dems won't push candidates like that because it's too easy for the reps to fight. Which angers me because the "socialists" are the ones fighting for the majority in most cases. >.>

Then what? The VP will take over. Not worried about that. More worried about Trump winning. I truly believe if he has a serious medical event, he will step aside. And even if not? It will probably happen in his lame duck period. I would rather have a Biden transition to Harris than Trump. I really believe he would do the right thing, though. If it wasn't an immediate death event. And I am not worried about Harris at least not continuing with the administration plan.

I do agree here for the most part. The more important thing is getting through the election with Biden pulling out a win. BUT... I also think Harris having a strong debate would be a huge boon for Biden. This is the first presidency where it almost feels like a foregone conclusion that he's not going to make it through the next four years. You are voting not just for Biden, but Harris, with the expectation she will be president at some point. Which is a scary concept for a lot of people. And why moving off Biden AND Harris may be preferable.

Because you can push Biden over Trump. But can you really sell Harris over Trump?

 

[Rachel]

Jon, I merely outlined the steps needed that could right the ship. I don't have energy to respond point by point. You obviously don't agree. What I am trying to say is the possible path forward. I know it's not possible to control colds. I don't have a crystal ball and I am not a pundit. Just someone commenting on an internet forum. It's going to be very hard no matter what, and that is depressing.

 

[Jon]

Jon, I merely outlined the steps needed that could right the ship. I don't have energy to respond point by point. You obviously don't agree. What I am trying to say is the possible path forward. I know it's not possible to control colds. I don't have a crystal ball and I am not a pundit. Just someone commenting on an internet forum. It's going to be very hard no matter what, and that is depressing.

I understand. I'm sorry, this is just who I am with certain topics. Don't think anything of it. And I certainly don't mean anything personal to you by it so please don't think that. Mad props and respect to you.

For 25 year at this point mind you lol

 

[Rachel]

Off topic. My brother's name is Jon. He hates being called Jonathan lol (we are both named from Bible people)

 

[Jon]

Off topic. My brother's name is Jon. He hates being called Jonathan lol (we are both named from Bible people)

Same with me. I've ALWAYS hated Jonathan. And John with an H for that matter. My sister is Jennifer and we were named after Hart to Hart, a brother and sister cop show in the 80s I think. My parents loved that show for some reason lol.

 

[Mark]

Then what? The VP will take over. Not worried about that. More worried about Trump winning. I truly believe if he has a serious medical event, he will step aside. And even if not? It will probably happen in his lame duck period. I would rather have a Biden transition to Harris than Trump. I really believe he would do the right thing, though. If it wasn't an immediate death event. And I am not worried about Harris at least not continuing with the administration plan.

Fair enough. I’m just not used to hearing people say that they’d be comfortable with Harris taking over for Biden.

She's also a "socialist" and suffers from the same issues Warren and Sanders do. The dems won't push candidates like that because it's too easy for the reps to fight. Which angers me because the "socialists" are the ones fighting for the majority in most cases. >.>

I’m not really concerned about the label she’s adhering to herself as much as I am her general capabilities. It’s played off as her being “fiery” or whatever, but in reality… she has a complete lack of composure that, if we’re marking against Trump for having, we’d have to mark against her for having as well for different reasons. Frankly, I don’t want someone who’s going to be bobbing her head around like a teenager with a shitty attitude in the war room or anywhere near it.