[2024] MLB Season Discussion Thread

[Jon]

That AAV is fucking ridiculous for Bregman though. But if the Sox can have Trevor Story actually stay healthy, I'd say their infield looks pretty strong from an offensive standpoint, but they'll be poor defensively. Add the improvements to the rotation and MAYBE they can climb into third this year.

 

[The Eye in the Sky!]

The Sox have a legit lineup if it can stay healthy. Duran, Devers, Bregman, Casas, Story... and our top hitting prospects are almost here in Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer.

The pitching is still the issue. They are taking fliers on some guys that have a pedigree, but had terrible years last year.

The rotation looks like it will be something like

Garrett Crochet - iffy but could be good
Tanner Houck - Streaky but pretty good
Lucas Giolito - No idea, seems mid
Walker Buehler - Used to be pretty good
Brayan Bello - Still not sure if he will live up to the hype

They also signed Aroldis Chapman for some reason. Dunno how much he has left, and the rest of the bullpen is a bunch of people I've never heard of.

I don't expect last place, but they could land anywhere from first to last in the AL East. No idea how this is going to shake up. Equal chance the pitching staff is decent to good or completely fall apart.

 

[The Eye in the Sky!]

That AAV is fucking ridiculous for Bregman though

I'm happy they did that. They had to do that. They're not a destination and the fact they overpaid is a good sign.

 

[Jon]

The Sox have a legit lineup if it can stay healthy. Duran, Devers, Bregman, Casas, Story... and our top hitting prospects are almost here in Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer.

The pitching is still the issue. They are taking fliers on some guys that have a pedigree, but had terrible years last year.

The rotation looks like it will be something like

Garrett Crochet - iffy but could be good
Tanner Houck - Streaky but pretty good
Lucas Giolito - No idea, seems mid
Walker Buehler - Used to be pretty good
Brayan Bello - Still not sure if he will live up to the hype

They also signed Aroldis Chapman for some reason. Dunno how much he has left, and the rest of the bullpen is a bunch of people I've never heard of.

I don't expect last place, but they could land anywhere from first to last in the AL East. No idea how this is going to shake up. Equal chance the pitching staff is decent to good or completely fall apart.

Giolito was a blue chip prospect I remember. health was always his issue. It derailed him. Buehler was sneaker good his first few years then became a back of the rotation guy. I remember there was hype with Houck, but the Sox reached. Seems to be accurate from what I've heard. Crochet I know nothing of because he was after the time I really followed baseball. Same with Bello.

Chapman unlikely can still throw 103, but if he's a lefty specialist/one inning set up dude and not the closer, fine.

I'm happy they did that. They had to do that. They're not a destination and the fact they overpaid is a good sign.

I'm not. Overpaying on an AAV like that becomes the norm and baseball has the luxury tax, not a hard cap. So they are saying to future free agents, if we really want you we'll pay you 10 million more than anyone else. That's not a good business model. ESPECIALLY when you're giving him a LeBron "can opt out after every year" bullshit. Every offseason they are going to wonder if he walks. And if he has a good year? Kiss him goodbye. He already had 6 year offers. Someone will give him 5 for 40m and he walks because they won't match. It's just dangerous. If there was no opt out, or an opt out only after year 2, I'd be more likely to say "ok..."

 

[The Eye in the Sky!]

I'm not. Overpaying on an AAV like that becomes the norm and baseball has the luxury tax, not a hard cap. So they are saying to future free agents, if we really want you we'll pay you 10 million more than anyone else. That's not a good business model. ESPECIALLY when you're giving him a LeBron "can opt out after every year" bullshit. Every offseason they are going to wonder if he walks. And if he has a good year? Kiss him goodbye. He already had 6 year offers. Someone will give him 5 for 40m and he walks because they won't match. It's just dangerous. If there was no opt out, or an opt out only after year 2, I'd be more likely to say "ok..."

In the business sense of it, I agree that it doesn't make sense. It's a good way to get exposed long term.

But in the general landscape of the sport right now, I'm fine with it. No one sees the Red Sox as a destination like they did 10-15 years ago. We've had years of cheap, low spending off seasons and last place finishes. They still charge the highest price per ticket in the majors. Their ratings are down, no one really cares about them anymore, which sucks for us who actually do. They won't invest in the team like they used to.

I like the move because it goes against their recent (wrong) philosophy of running the team. At least it gives me the impression that they are willing to overpay for talent if they need to. Ideally they don't, but until they become a destination again, they are going to have to.

Frankly, they are going to make me pay a high price to see the games, I expect them to spend to make it worthwhile. I don't care about a billionaire's finances, I just want a competitive team.

 

[Jon]

In the business sense of it, I agree that it doesn't make sense. It's a good way to get exposed long term.

But in the general landscape of the sport right now, I'm fine with it. No one sees the Red Sox as a destination like they did 10-15 years ago. We've had years of cheap, low spending off seasons and last place finishes. They still charge the highest price per ticket in the majors. Their ratings are down, no one really cares about them anymore, which sucks for us who actually do. They won't invest in the team like they used to.

I like the move because it goes against their recent (wrong) philosophy of running the team. At least it gives me the impression that they are willing to overpay for talent if they need to. Ideally they don't, but until they become a destination again, they are going to have to.

Frankly, they are going to make me pay a high price to see the games, I expect them to spend to make it worthwhile. I don't care about a billionaire's finances, I just want a competitive team.

I agree with the sentiment overall. Overpaying is one thing. Seriously overpaying is another.

The more worrisome part isn't the overpay to me, it's the term. 3 years is fine, but not when you give him an out every year. That's really where I'm hung up. The Red Sox have been pitiful drafting and when they do have a good prospect they trade them a way for a mid pitcher with injury or personality concerns. There team isn't exciting and without the Yankees rivalry, the team has zero hype now. If you're going to have zero hype, you need to at least be successful (see Tampa).

I agree with the prices though. I love Fenway in every ounce of my heart, but it's time for it to go. The whole stadium stopped being nice to attend in the 80s. The changes aren't enough to overcome the fact there's not enough seats and not enough boxes and not enough lure for the team now. It's time to build a new high tech facility and be able to lower prices a little with increased capacity.

Oh and Henry selling the team. That would be great.

 

[The Eye in the Sky!]

I don't ever want them to leave Fenway... HOWEVER... my baseball trips around the country the last 5 years have shown me how much nicer even the most basic stadium is. I'd hate to be a fan of the Royals, Pirates, Orioles... but I loved their stadiums. It's such a better product than going to Fenway. Much more family and fan friendly.

But Fenway is one of the last places where you get old time baseball feels, it feels like a museum that players play in. When they are good, the atmosphere is unmatched.

 

[Jon]

I don't ever want them to leave Fenway... HOWEVER... my baseball trips around the country the last 5 years have shown me how much nicer even the most basic stadium is. I'd hate to be a fan of the Royals, Pirates, Orioles... but I loved their stadiums. It's such a better product than going to Fenway. Much more family and fan friendly.

But Fenway is one of the last places where you get old time baseball feels, it feels like a museum that players play in. When they are good, the atmosphere is unmatched.

You can still leave Fenway (and I would image the people of Boston will file to have it marked as a landmark), but still build a new stadium. Then have old timey celb and charity games at Fenway while raking in money in a new stadium.

This isn't a complicated solution, but when the average seating capacity for an MLB stadium is 43,000 and Fenway is 37,000 (take away the Green Monster, pavilion and bleacher seating they squeezed in that they really didn't have space for and it's closer to 25,000 that it was originally) and you're talking a TON of lost capital on those 10,000 seats. Let's say the average ticket cost is around $70 (total guess and taking cheapest and premium into account) and you're talking missing out on around $700k PER GAME. Over 82 games at home, that's nearly 60 MILLION per season. And that DOESN'T include extra concessions, merchandise, box seats, etc. from the extra 10,000 people.

Not to mention new state of the art locker rooms and facilities will make it a more desirable destination for players too.

From a business perspective, this is easy. But... Taxachusetts.