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Zell Wolf GWF Wolf - Zell's Version Day 2 + Night 3

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Aluse Cannon

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Okay, I'm going to throw another suspect out there: @Kat - based on what seems to be good skill level.

If @VashTheStampede is indeed a townie (I still have my doubts) I think this post could have led a high skill level player to think that @shortkut would go with the other known (or at least perceived to be known) townie, in @Holly :

If you don't feel like clicking: after @Zell 17 confirmed my thoughts on how the shaman role works (it'll fool the detective) kut said that information would finalize his plan. Before that he publicly stated he'd use @Cole every time. After that, it seemed reasonable to make the switch to someone else. Therefore the shaman could have chosen Holly as the target, to trick us into thinking the other person would be a wolf even if they weren't, or it would trick us into thinking a wolf is really a townie.


Even if this isn't the case and vash is truly a wolf, this is a drawback to publicly stating plans like that before (and even after) fully understanding all the rules.
 
Fuck you lol. I explicitly remember at least two games where you fully railroaded me out of the blue to start a bandwagon on me, get me lynched both as a regular townie and a mason. And okay, yes, you did once get me as wolf, but that's far from a perfect track record. Worst of all, those two times I wasn't a wolf you got away with it scott free afterwards. Pissed me off both times. :smash

Benzine was talking about voting for Jawneh based on past games, and now Benzine is murderlated.

Benzine was the Medium, so maybe there is something there?
 

Cole


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Jumping in to post during this discussion. So right now we have a potential lead on Vash, unless the shaman got either Vash or Holly to mix things up.


As an FYI, I'm going to continue keeping my role hidden for now, but I'm the 3rd random townie one. I think it's a better play to not announce which special ability I have.
I think this is an interesting thing to say. (interesting in the smart sense not the suspicious sense)
I honestly don't know. Whatever the reasoning, it was a damn good play.
see bottom
Yeah, absolutely a great play to not believe shortkut whatsoever and select you instead of Cole, who kut said was going to be his baseline. They're fishing for power roles now, and without their seer they are completely blind.
I was originally going to reply and say that this post made me suspicious and made me wonder if you are what you said you are. but instead, see bottom
I did go back and Vash did say to kill Ants! during the day and avoid wasting a potion.

@Fire Queen why you so quiet?
this doesn't mean anything either way tbh. if Vash is a wolf, he has every reason to believe shortkut and I were telling the truth, and therefore he'd know ants was a lost cause, and he had to distance himself.
Okay, I'm going to throw another suspect out there: @Kat - based on what seems to be good skill level.

If @VashTheStampede is indeed a townie (I still have my doubts) I think this post could have led a high skill level player to think that @shortkut would go with the other known (or at least perceived to be known) townie, in @Holly :

If you don't feel like clicking: after @Zell 17 confirmed my thoughts on how the shaman role works (it'll fool the detective) kut said that information would finalize his plan. Before that he publicly stated he'd use @Cole every time. After that, it seemed reasonable to make the switch to someone else. Therefore the shaman could have chosen Holly as the target, to trick us into thinking the other person would be a wolf even if they weren't, or it would trick us into thinking a wolf is really a townie.


Even if this isn't the case and vash is truly a wolf, this is a drawback to publicly stating plans like that before (and even after) fully understanding all the all the rules.
this is INREDIBLY valid and I had not considered it. a very smart player may absolutely have considered blocking Holly instead of me anticipating kuts post about using me as a baseline to check others. if so, then a very smart player is on the wolves.

BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, maybe you're the other wolf. maybe you made the call to mask Holly instead, you're certainly capable.

@shortkut old boy! tonight I have a mission for you.

I want you to investigate EITHER Alu or Vash.

and to compare then I want you to use me OR Holly.

don't state which you'll do. but you have an option for both parties and since the shaman would have yo get the correct one on either side to foil this plan, so the way I see it. we have a 50/50 chance of finding out for sure. (we could even do it a third night to be further sure)

THAT SAID

if you agree to this shortkut, and we work on the assumption that they miss shamaning the correct person

then I suspect thst alu and Vash are BOTH wolves. and that alu posing this in the thread and pinning it on Kat is because HE is the one that thought of it, and did it to protect Vash.
 

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Okay, I'm going to throw another suspect out there: @Kat - based on what seems to be good skill level.

If @VashTheStampede is indeed a townie (I still have my doubts) I think this post could have led a high skill level player to think that @shortkut would go with the other known (or at least perceived to be known) townie, in @Holly :

If you don't feel like clicking: after @Zell 17 confirmed my thoughts on how the shaman role works (it'll fool the detective) kut said that information would finalize his plan. Before that he publicly stated he'd use @Cole every time. After that, it seemed reasonable to make the switch to someone else. Therefore the shaman could have chosen Holly as the target, to trick us into thinking the other person would be a wolf even if they weren't, or it would trick us into thinking a wolf is really a townie.


Even if this isn't the case and vash is truly a wolf, this is a drawback to publicly stating plans like that before (and even after) fully understanding all the rules.
The thing is, Kat didn't offer nearly as much insight as you would believe. Yes, her posts were long, but there wasn't much to them. There was a lot of tossing accusations at Cole for how he played in the previous game, and the argument over statistics. That's it. She didn't toss out suspicions. She didn't go into in depth analysis. She made long posts calling out Cole for a different game.

It's attempting to be appear anytical while not having to make a definitive statement. I also don't believe she offered anything on the Ants front.

Yeah, Kat is definitely leaping up on my suspect list.
 

shortkut

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I think this is an interesting thing to say. (interesting in the smart sense not the suspicious sense)

see bottom

I was originally going to reply and say that this post made me suspicious and made me wonder if you are what you said you are. but instead, see bottom

this doesn't mean anything either way tbh. if Vash is a wolf, he has every reason to believe shortkut and I were telling the truth, and therefore he'd know ants was a lost cause, and he had to distance himself.

this is INREDIBLY valid and I had not considered it. a very smart player may absolutely have considered blocking Holly instead of me anticipating kuts post about using me as a baseline to check others. if so, then a very smart player is on the wolves.

BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, maybe you're the other wolf. maybe you made the call to mask Holly instead, you're certainly capable.

@shortkut old boy! tonight I have a mission for you.

I want you to investigate EITHER Alu or Vash.

and to compare then I want you to use me OR Holly.

don't state which you'll do. but you have an option for both parties and since the shaman would have yo get the correct one on either side to foil this plan, so the way I see it. we have a 50/50 chance of finding out for sure. (we could even do it a third night to be further sure)

THAT SAID

if you agree to this shortkut, and we work on the assumption that they miss shamaning the correct person

then I suspect thst alu and Vash are BOTH wolves. and that alu posing this in the thread and pinning it on Kat is because HE is the one that thought of it, and did it to protect Vash.
I will detect someone and compare the. To someone else
 

Cole


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The thing is, Kat didn't offer nearly as much insight as you would believe. Yes, her posts were long, but there wasn't much to them. There was a lot of tossing accusations at Cole for how he played in the previous game, and the argument over statistics. That's it. She didn't toss out suspicions. She didn't go into in depth analysis. She made long posts calling out Cole for a different game.

It's attempting to be appear anytical while not having to make a definitive statement. I also don't believe she offered anything on the Ants front.

Yeah, Kat is definitely leaping up on my suspect list.
kats posts both in this game and the aftermath of game 1, she has read both me and the game flawlessly so far. you know that I am innocent (I should hope) so I will tell you kat is definitely a skilled player. and her posts have been insightful if you know what you're looking for.
 

Aluse Cannon

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I figured my post would at least add some suspicion to me and make you want me investigated. That's fine. In all honesty as soon as Kut posted what he did I thought he meant he'd switch to Holly right away. That's how I knew to find the post after he confirmed he used Holly.

It's what I would have done in the situation for sure, so I'm calling it out. That obviously throws suspicion on me that I didn't have before, but if the town messes up and lynches me I wanted the thought out there for people to consider, since I wouldn't be able to share it after dying.
 

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okay then.

assuming we're on the same page.

someone better at math tell me.

if the baseline is A and B. and the compare is C and D.

does the shaman have a 50/50 chance of being correct? or a 1/4 chance of being correct?
Oh if we're doing the odds thing again just lynch me now :link
 

Aluse Cannon

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okay then.

assuming we're on the same page.

someone better at math tell me.

if the baseline is A and B. and the compare is C and D.

does the shaman have a 50/50 chance of being correct? or a 1/4 chance of being correct?
If kut is definitely picking either you or holly then the shaman will pick one of you two. 50/50 shot.
 

Cole


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I figured my post would at least add some suspicion to me and make you want me investigated. That's fine. In all honesty as soon as Kut posted what he did I thought he meant he'd switch to Holly right away. That's how I knew to find the post after he confirmed he used Holly.

It's what I would have done in the situation for sure, so I'm calling it out. That obviously throws suspicion on me that I didn't have before, but if the town messes up and lynches me I wanted the thought out there for people to consider, since I wouldn't be able to share it after dying.
a reasonable thing to say. if I was the wolf and I was in your spot, I would phrase it this way too.
If kut is definitely picking either you or holly then the shaman will pick one of you two. 50/50 shot.
that's what I suspected.
 

Aluse Cannon

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a reasonable thing to say. if I was the wolf and I was in your spot, I would phrase it this way too.

that's what I suspected.
Well, I'm not the wolf but I am in my spot. So that's fun.

Also I'll be disappearing for the night because of the whole work thing in the morning. Try not to give me 30 pages to read by then...
 

shortkut

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Dean just role claimed as the GOAT.
Chicago Bulls Dunk GIF by NBA
 

Cole


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I hope to check st least one more time for whatever Kat is typing.

but @VashTheStampede if you are a wolf WITH Alu. you owe that man your life. becsuse your shaman excuse did nothing for me when I was under the assumption they had protected you. I has "forgotten" about Holly.

I was 100% on you dying
 

Kat

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I feel like at least one wolf is bound to lay low. I think Fire Queen is a good choice. Probably her strategy.
I agree it's suspicious she would be so quiet after hosting her own game. I'd expect her to be more active, too. However, as Cole liked to say last game, activity is a hard thing to judge by nowadays. I'm very active some days and not able to post at all others myself.

The way she was asking questions initially made me think she had a night role but then zell confirmed everyone does so…
Everyone has a role, but not everyone has a night role. But I'm sure you're all tired of my pedantry...

for everyone: I am not asking you to reveal your role, but let a have some fun. tell us what you got up to last night? did you catch up on your favorite Netflix show? did you sit telling stories by the fire? did you eat benzine?
I read a bunch of Anathem. It's gotten good enough that it's starting to keep me up at night rather than help me sleep. The pride parade I went to during the day was SO LOUD! My ears still hurt.

Of the three random roles it looks like 2nd Witch and (maybe?) Bodyguard are confirmed.
This is kind of a crazy theory, but I kinda suspect Ryan is lying about his role. Think about it: he has a good excuse for wolves to not attack him (or a deterrent if he's a fool): it takes two hits to kill him and he's not even that useful! (How many times did he say that??) It's not provable in any way: there could be multiple of his role, and we can't tell if he's actually protecting anyone unless that person dies. If he's a wolf, they just don't kill that person until it's worth it. If he's a fool, he protects the person most valuable and hopes they get berserked. Suddenly he looks like a wolf and is lynched.

He COULD actually be what he says, of course. He hasn't done anything actually suspicious, which is why this is "kinda crazy". I'm NOT advocating for his death, because he's absolutely useful to us if he's genuine. But if he were a wolf or especially a fool, it would be the perfect strategy imo.
 

Kat

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(I'm going page by page to make this more manageable for myself. I'll catch up with current posts hopefully after this one.)

As an FYI, I'm going to continue keeping my role hidden for now, but I'm the 3rd random townie one. I think it's a better play to not announce which special ability I have.
On one hand, I agree that's smart, because there's already too much info out about roles and it's letting the wolves narrow down the powerful roles (as evidenced by last night's kill). On the other hand, why are you still giving more info if you recognize that fact? And how convenient that you've claimed a role while also giving us no way at all to verify that info.

I'm also slightly suspicious of @Killface! due to the absence yesterday. Not because he was absent, but because I somewhat feel like he could be the berserk wolf who just didn't use the ability because they weren't around to do so, even though he had an open list of what would result in two kills,
How interesting you should say so, since you were also absent yesterday...

This means all three optional roles are claimed. IMO that's a bit suspicious statistically (sorry to bring that up again) and leads me to think one of those people are lying. I think we can agree Holly has shown herself to be legit, there's no reason for a witch to collude with her for that kill, so that points to Alu or Ryan. Again, it could all be true... but it does raise an eyebrow...
 

Cole


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I agree it's suspicious she would be so quiet after hosting her own game. I'd expect her to be more active, too. However, as Cole liked to say last game, activity is a hard thing to judge by nowadays. I'm very active some days and not able to post at all others myself.


Everyone has a role, but not everyone has a night role. But I'm sure you're all tired of my pedantry...


I read a bunch of Anathem. It's gotten good enough that it's starting to keep me up at night rather than help me sleep. The pride parade I went to during the day was SO LOUD! My ears still hurt.


This is kind of a crazy theory, but I kinda suspect Ryan is lying about his role. Think about it: he has a good excuse for wolves to not attack him (or a deterrent if he's a fool): it takes two hits to kill him and he's not even that useful! (How many times did he say that??) It's not provable in any way: there could be multiple of his role, and we can't tell if he's actually protecting anyone unless that person dies. If he's a wolf, they just don't kill that person until it's worth it. If he's a fool, he protects the person most valuable and hopes they get berserked. Suddenly he looks like a wolf and is lynched.

He COULD actually be what he says, of course. He hasn't done anything actually suspicious, which is why this is "kinda crazy". I'm NOT advocating for his death, because he's absolutely useful to us if he's genuine. But if he were a wolf or especially a fool, it would be the perfect strategy imo.
so as I said above, before Alus post I was about to say Ryan's post read as suspicious. he was TOO quick to accept a different theory.

Alus post changes things a bit.

but I see a world where it's all 3 of them...

Vash Berseker (just because he brought it up first I believe)
Alu Shaman and it was his plan which is why he called it out.
Ryan the Avenger then I believe. interesting, this also make a Ryan very very risky to kill, if this theory is correct.
 

Cole


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(I'm going page by page to make this more manageable for myself. I'll catch up with current posts hopefully after this one.)


On one hand, I agree that's smart, because there's already too much info out about roles and it's letting the wolves narrow down the powerful roles (as evidenced by last night's kill). On the other hand, why are you still giving more info if you recognize that fact? And how convenient that you've claimed a role while also giving us no way at all to verify that info.


How interesting you should say so, since you were also absent yesterday...

This means all three optional roles are claimed. IMO that's a bit suspicious statistically (sorry to bring that up again) and leads me to think one of those people are lying. I think we can agree Holly has shown herself to be legit, there's no reason for a witch to collude with her for that kill, so that points to Alu or Ryan. Again, it could all be true... but it does raise an eyebrow...
I feel the SAME way. there has been an extremely fishy set of events.

and I am absolutely willing to believe it's Alu, Ryan, Vash. I'm not sold. but that's where I'm heading. and in this case, were talking wolves, not fool. so I'm very very curious to see what any one has to say becsuse we could get a clean lynch out of this.
 

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Benzine was talking about voting for Jawneh based on past games, and now Benzine is murderlated.

Benzine was the Medium, so maybe there is something there?
There's no way I would've said all that about Ben if I was going to murder him.

What I would've done is the exact same thing he did to me and rally the town to lynch him. :D The blood would be on all of our hands. And it would be very rewarding in that case.

Now that I think about it, that bastard was surely thinking about getting me lynched again and then reviving me if my role was useful. I hate this even more now.
 

VashTheStampede

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Okay you know what? The way I see it, I'm probably dead in the night phase now because of kut's Detective Pikachu act so I'm gonna just come out with it.

I'm an aura seer. Night 1 I checked Cole (because OF COURSE I did). He came up unknown. That's also why I immediately pressed him when he role claimed as Witch, because that would match up.

Last night I checked Fire Queen. She's Evil. Tried to drop hints in my first couple posts in this day thread, but this isn't the time for subtlety.
 
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ok i have returned from the airport and am about to air out my thoughts. WARNING: i run these games far more often than i am a player in them so my skills are not as honed as others might be. take everything i say with a grain of salt because while i may not be the Fool i am known to be a bit of a silly goose sometimes

also i am ignoring any role claiming anyone may have done

Cole: everpresent and ever vocal, Cole is a force to be reckoned with in any game such as this. i don't think he's on team wolf but if he is, god damn, put him in the wolf hall of fame.

Fire Queen:
extremely cool and attractive and somewhat mysterious. does get really moody whenever there is a full moon but that also might just be hormones. will have to check her prescription bottles to see if she is taking wolf estrogen (fun fact, the fiancee and i watched through batman: the animated series earlier this year and wolf estrogen is literally a plot point in one of the episodes)

shortkut:
he's no columbo but he's ok in my book

Tommy Boy:
fell suspiciously silent after rumors started abounding that he might be the fool. but also i remember from another thread that his partner is finally returning from overseas so he probably does have a bunch of real life stuff going on. but also both could be true

Dean
: honestly can't get a read on this guy. i'll be honest i didn't read every single post during the day phase but i feel like he was one of the less active ones. definitely more active so far this day phase, so probably best not to put too much stuck into it

Ryan!: odds snafu on day 1 aside, it seems like the current scuttlebutt is that this fellow is either the bodyguard or pulling an insane amount of strings to make it look like he's the bodyguard? i think he's a more likely Fool than wolf in any case

Killface!:
laying low as well, but again i think it's folly to suggest that less activity = wolf. (case in point Cole in the game i just ran LOL) not sure if he's claimed a role? someone correct me if i'm wrong on that but if not that's something to consider

Jawneh
: somehow i don't think this guy is a wolf. it just feels off. i'm going to trust my gut on this one even if i had taco bell earlier today

VashTheStampede: don't think i didn't notice the little coded message in his first post during this day phase. i love noticing little things like that. as for why that coded message was there i genuinely have no idea. if Vash is the fool it makes absolutely zero sense to cast suspicion on someone else unless he is playing 5d chess which he may very well be doing. i think one of the more likely scenarios is that vash is either a wolf or one of the random townie roles

Holly
: trying to figure out Holly's innocence with all of the shaman and seer role hullabaloo makes me feel like charlie from always sunny with his conspiracy theory board. i'm definitely a fake fan though because i can't even remember the name of the character who that corkboard is about. i'm also not going to google it. anyway i will let more seasoned players have discourse here

Alu: see above. i will add that if i had the last remaining unclaimed random townie role i would definitely NOT have claimed it because that is just painting a big old target on your back for the berserk wolf who still has their ability remaining. but maybe that is just down to a difference in playstyles

Kat: how could a cat be a wolf? it just doesn't make sense. anyway for real though it's kinda suspicious how much information Kat has for supposedly posting so little
 
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Last night I checked Fire Queen. She's Evil. Tried to drop hints in my first couple posts in this day thread, but this isn't the time for subtlety.
aw dang you couldn't have waited until after i did my big post where i pointed out all the hints you dropped huh :sad
 

VashTheStampede

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aw dang you couldn't have waited until after i did my big post where i pointed out all the hints you dropped huh :sad
I was waiting so long for you to finish but I'm sleepy :(

Also I left another hint about you in my post about what I did last night. I liked that one more.
 

Kat

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She didn't toss out suspicions. She didn't go into in depth analysis. She made long posts calling out Cole for a different game.

It's attempting to be appear anytical while not having to make a definitive statement. I also don't believe she offered anything on the Ants front.
Rude! I called out Fool's Requiem as the serial killer and offered to lynch him, which wouldn't even gain me anything as a wolf. It would've just saved the town a potion. Ants was obviously bad but I felt he was too risky to lynch as the fool, especially with FR as an alternative. Which I said.

Ryan the Avenger then I believe. interesting, this also make a Ryan very very risky to kill, if this theory is correct.
Does it? We have to kill him eventually if he is, and wouldn't it be better to do it before doctor or gunner are revealed? Although I guess the risk is we lose a strong player or role earlier in the game. Maybe later it won't be able to do much damage (though we're kinda fucked already if that ends up the case). Idk, I'm on the fence on that one. Who do you think we would lose now? Shortkut probably, right? That would admittedly be a big blow, we don't have any other way to investigate people right now. Hmm.

No offense, Ryan. Just speculating. Don't eat me please.
 

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I saw @VashTheStampede typing but he seems to have stopped. If you’re telling the truth wolves read my hand correctly and shamaned Holly leading me to erroneously accuse you. I was planning on letting you live for an extra day or two, but your extreme subtlety went over my head and made me think you were the fool when combined with my misread. At the very least, we can try to take another wolf off the board with a lynch now

vote @Fire Queen and then sleep
 
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i’m turning in for the night so before i do let me say a couple things

- i’m not gonna role claim in response to vash’s accusation because that isn’t how i play
- all i will say is that if i do die this magical village will be worse off for it (and not just because of my good looks)
- i definitely don’t have a secret understanding with zell that, as wolf gamemasters, we will always guarantee each other wolf roles
- it would be really funny if i was the fool and got shaman’d wouldn’t it? but what are the odds of that. wait i forgot we were done talking about odds
- please be nice to me while i’m asleep :cry waking up is really cool i like doing it and not being in eternal slumber
 

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This 4D/5D chess about me being shaman'd is amusing and a bit flattering because I'd not even considered that as a possibility. I can be sure that Cole is a townie for reasons I outlined in the previous day and vice versa. I'm paying attention to what's being said, though.
 

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VashTheStampede: don't think i didn't notice the little coded message in his first post during this day phase.

@VashTheStampede , the only thing that makes me feel less bad is that the wolves would probably have killed you overnight anyway since FQ realized you were on to her

This 4D/5D chess about me being shaman'd is amusing and a bit flattering because I'd not even considered that as a possibility. I can be sure that Cole is a townie for reasons I outlined in the previous day and vice versa. I'm paying attention to what's being said, though.
I thought they would think I was trying to throw them off and would still use Cole as my baseline but they called my bluff
 
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