this game has the most wonderful habit of making people look foolish.
I have told you guys every thing you need to know about me, and I wasn't even subtle. but now because some people decided to miss it, were in a predicament. but *also* because a certain person was busy all day yesterday, I didn't get the information I was after.
but here's the rub. of everything I'm about to say, I can only be positive of one of them. the rest is conjecture with not enough time to iron them out. unfortunately for us, however, I think even if I was 100% positive and nailed down all 4 of them, I think we still lose. the time it will take to verify what I'm saying, and then lynch everyone will make the town lose. even if we knew the names of all 4 wolves, I think we still effectively "time out" here. the one shot we have (which is what I tried to explain before) is to confirm the existence of a vigilante, who then correctly hits a shot every single night
but let's begin.
this is from my first post of day 2.
if it was the bad cop, this to me is the most plausible. the bad cop has 3 win conditions. solo, with the town if hes found by the good guys, and with the wolves if he's found by the bad guys. in theory, he could choose the way he most wants to win. if he wants to win with the town, he wouldn't take a random shot. chances are high that hits a townie. if he wants to win as WOLF, maybe he takes the shot. he has a higher chance of hitting a townie, so maybe he risks it. but if his intention is to win solo, why not take the random shot? he has no allies, no matter how many times the gumshoe calls,, no matter how Aluring is The Consigliere. one less person to get through, and the potential to hit one of the seers which otherwise he'd likely have no information about. why not take the shot?
the relevant part has been bolded. well some of it. if you go back and check the thread, you'll probably find a lot of improperly capitalized words. all of them beginning with the letter A. culminating in the boldest text where I tell you exactly what I need to tell you, and it seems like everyone but shortkut missed it. I even had to misspell the word alluring to do it.
shortkut even publicly outted me, as early as my argument with Zell when he said "Cole just implicated someone and you completely ignored it."
the end of that post read like this.
And lastly, maybe I'm a dick, but if I am wrong about trying to figure out who pulled the trigger, then there's some real questionable moves being made. guess the terminology change from wolf to mafia was that confusing to people.
...okay, I am a Dick.
with another strangely capitalized letter. I guess it's easy to miss that when everyone knows I AM a dick.
so let me spell it out for you.
Alu is The Consigliere. full stop.
day 1 gave me enough of an inkling, and let's just say night 1 (the night that followed day 1, not the night before the game started) 100% confirmed that.
Alu. is. The. Consigliere.
here's where it gets more complicated.
it would've been pretty easy to get Alu put on trial today, and prove me right even if I died for it, but I had a confirmed mobster. and I wanted to use it to test a theory.
contrary to what TD thinks, I do have suspicion that Zell is mob, but not a very strong one, and I wanted to confirm itwas. my hope was that Alu would be active enough in the thread to join the debate and weigh in, and I could gauge what he wanted to do with Zell to find out what Zell was, then try and get every one to switch to votes for Alu to begin the process while I used those reads to try and confirm more mobsters.
but Alu was busy, and by the time he got to the thread, it was pretty late.
but he did say he didn't think Zell was guilty. he said "I can see he's saying some weird things, but I don't think that warrants a death sentence." normally, I would call that good insight into Zell, Alu trying to save him.
but there's rub off number 2, because shortkut publicly outted me (you asshole). shortkut not only told Zell I implicated someone, he also posted a very specific gif to acknowledge he saw the second clue.
shortkut isn't "blindly following my bullshit" he's just the only one that admitted to finding the clues before I posted this.
I'm very on the fence about shortkut. when he first made his post, I actually snap reacted and thought he was false role claiming and that I had a second mobster confirmed. but I was high, and after rereading, I don't think he was role claiming, I think he was trying to tell me he saw the clues.
but even with that, he is acting like my ally, whether thats because he is, or because he wants me to think he is, I'm not certain, but he definitely saw the clues.
(after the game, Vash can confirm everything I'm saying, sometimes I use Zell (and now Vash) as a sounding board for my plans or predictions, they never respond, they don't even say "okay" it's just a way for me to talk it out, and Vash can confirm I absolutely did have a suspicion on Zell and was using our recent strife between us to fish for answers from Alu.)
I agreed to put TD on trial, he wasn't my first choice, because we needed someone that could talk their way out if innocent. but since I wasn't getting the trial I wanted, I got TD to consenting to his trial instead.
that's significant, because if there is one trial that is safe for a mobster, it's the first one. not only is this a new system, but we have so little information, every one will be unlikely to convict. "what if TD is innocent and I vote to convict, that looks bad" TD would have known this, and would've been comfortable using his pulpit to do exactly what he did.
it stopped becoming about him and instead became about wild accusations.
unless I'm misreading, and knowing what I know that I've tried to hint very openly to you guys, TD can't know anyone's role for certain, unless he's in the mob. But he's stated the roles of like 4 different people "for certain".
according to him, I'm the bad cop, Tubby is a mobster, shortkut is mafia and/or "fell for my bullshit" and "I don't actually suspect Zell".
I don't know the status of Tubby, but just because of TDs assertion that he is 100% positive, it leads me to believe he's innocent.
when did TD change his stance?
frankly I think it's after I repeatedly pushed at Alu to read through the thread in full, I made hints about him running out of time, I even slipped in the word "Nitti" (Frank Nitti was Al Capones right hand man, effectively what a Consigliere is. also I specifically made s comment to Alu about using his "right hand, man!")
I think after I insituated clues were missed, TD went back through and found the clues (he laughed at the "Nitti-gritty" post) and then realized I knew who Alu was.
as shortkut mentioned, and I had previously suggested, the bad cop isn't inherently an enemy. shortkut, having read the clues, was suggesting I try to find the bad cop in order to pull him to the good side.
but TD just wants me dead all of a sudden. begging the vigilante to take me out, rather than gumshoe me, or even just put me on trial to try and convict. he wants me out of the game specifically.
it was at this juncture that I thought, "maybe TD IS the vigilante". I had previously suggested a plan for us to identify the vigilante so thst we had a confirmed ally we could use. it risked a townie, I know, but I figured it was worth the risk. TD was vehement in "not even understsnding" why we would want to do that.
but I wonder if he used that idea to "call for the vigilante to kill me" just so he can pull the trigger himself and thank the vigilante for their hard work.
I will probably die for this, and if I were the mobsters, I would Clean the scene again to hide my role. (and yes, my hope in saying this is that they spare me to try and frame me later), which is rub number 3, because if they do, and it takes even longer for you guys to believe me, we definitely lose. it would be a smart plan.
so where are we.
for one:
I change my vote to Alu
and whether I'm dead or alive, cleaned or not, I strongly encourage you to do the same and convict him tomorrow. if you don't get a mobster off the board ASAP, we lose. conversely, if there is a vigilante, whether it's TD or not, you should take out Alu.
i said this before, but there are 5 potential town roles, but only 4 in the game, which means we 100% either have a judge or a vigilante. if we do not have a vigilante, and Alu goes to trial tomorrow, judge, I implore you, send Alu to the gallows. we are already running out of time and can't afford another trial that leads no where. if the vigilante or judge kill him, even if I'm dead, it'll confirm me, and then maybe there's more clues we can find without me.
TD went out of his way to divert suspicion onto me after Alu finally rejoined the thread and I began prodding him. slipping in the "I don't even think he thinks Zell is guilty" line while also trying to have me killed makes me wonder if he's also trying to protect Zell.
I also find it amusing that he claimed Fall was at the top of his suspicion list, even though Zell was tied with Alu (who hadn't posted any thing additional at the time) as tied with Zell. but he also said Zell was at the top and voted for him, but Tubby was higher on his scale.
I'm not sold on TD, if I had to make a choice, I would suspect he doesn't have the town's best interest at heart. mob or bad cop, he is trying to cover up some moves.
or he made several REALLY bad reads.
so where do we stand.
Alu is guilty.
TD would be my second highest suspicion at this juncture.
Zell would be close behind. both Alu and TD made moves that were vaguely diverting suspicion off of Zell.
(however, I did kind of guide Alu to my post outing him, he is smart enough to pick up the clues if he saw them, realize I was using him to fish, and then loosely "defended" Zell to make me think exactly what I'm thinking now.)
shortkut is a straight up coin flip to me. my gut says he's a townie, saw my clues, and wanted to signal me that he was on my side so I knew who I could trust. but trying to gain someone's trust in a day phase is CLASSIC shortkut tech.
I'm not even sure I have any one else to suggest.
it's HIGHLY unlikely I've nailed all 4, (Alu, TD, Zell, shortkut) they are all too good to be this obvious in their actions. but then again, sometimes too many cooks in the kitchen means you step on each other's toes and miss what's right in front of you.
I don't want to be put on trial, I'd rather get the chance to use my Trident covered Jordan's some more, but I also think I'll likely die if not on trial.
unless I die WITHOUT being cleaned, or we kill Alu, my information is going to take a while to corroborate, and I don't know if it'll give the town enough time to win.
but it's the best I got. here I am, once again, laying out as much truth as I can manage without being overt.
the key parts of this have been laid before you, since long before TDs mistaken allegations and threats.
in fact: I encourage you to go back to day 1, in one of my posts to Kat, I laid out *exactly* what I did Night 0, and every one missed it as my just spitballing.
I tried here, guys.
also, I am comfortable skipping at this juncture if we can agree to Alu, but I know there's gonna be too many questions.
have fun!
