Zell Wolf Not Zell Wolf 2 Day 4

[VashTheStampede]

...that was the grand reveal? I thought this was already established canon

Yeah weird choice for a detective looking for new information really

 

[Ants!]

Confirmed good guys: Jon and Tommy
Kinda-confirmed good guys: Ants and Kat
Kinda-confirmed bad guys: Quagmire and Alu
Conflict: Vash or Fool is lying
Suspect: banana
Don't know yet but probably good: Kelly

 

[Quagmire]

Lmao not even 1 page and yall already not reading posts

Page 1 of day 4

 

[Fool's Requiem]

...that was the grand reveal? I thought this was already established canon

You're going to have to explain why. I don't recall Kat being cleared at all nor claimed a role.

 

[Ants!]

My aura should have come back as unknown as an FYI.

So either there's a shaman (what I'm leading towards) or Ants is lying and trying to throw too many targets out at once to try and make it harder to get everyone to target a single person for a lynch.


Why read me and not the witch who will almost certainly come back to us saying she was once again nightmared?

Because as I've stated at the very beginning of the game: I'm deliberately trying to outmaneuver the shaman by picking less likely candidates. The last two nights I could have easily picked somebody like Vash or banana, but I was expecting the wolf team to predict that in order to thwart me.

I've also said last game that I tend to suspect people who skate by largely unnoticed. So I picked GwJumpman. Then Quagmire. Then you. Plus Vash, a suspected person, silenced you so if anything it was a chance to confirm you as not evil. But here we are.

 

[Smacktard]

Bruh I just said I trusted you finally. And yesterday you said you believed me because of GwJumpman. And if we lynch one of my two evil reads then why would you still not trust me if one of them gets confirmed?

You can trust me, but that doesn't mean I trust you. Our first priority should be getting rid of someone who claims to be town, can KILL a townie at night, and hasn't contributed anything the entire game. If they're Cupid'd, they're a bigger threat to the town than a confirmed wolf, because they haven't been making pro-town moves. I guaranfuckingtee you they are coupled with a wolf.

 

[Smacktard]

Because as I've stated at the very beginning of the game: I'm deliberately trying to outmaneuver the shaman by picking less likely candidates. The last two nights I could have easily picked somebody like Vash or banana, but I was expecting the wolf team to predict that in order to thwart me.

I've also said last game that I tend to suspect people who skate by largely unnoticed. So I picked GwJumpman. Then Quagmire. Then you. Plus Vash, a suspected person, silenced you so if anything it was a chance to confirm you as not evil. But here we are.

Last night FR corroborated your claim about Kat, which makes sense.

Why didn't you try to corroborate his claim about Vash? That doesn't make sense.

 

[A Punched Face]

Kinda-confirmed good guys: Ants and Kat

You're not kind of confirmed at all. No one has checked you and it's all based on information you've given, which I can confirm today as inaccurate.

 

[Ants!]

You can trust me, but that doesn't mean I trust you. Our first priority should be getting rid of someone who claims to be town, can KILL a townie at night, and hasn't contributed anything the entire game. If they're Cupid'd, they're a bigger threat to the town than a confirmed wolf, because they haven't been making pro-town moves. I guaranfuckingtee you they are coupled with a wolf.

Wolves also aren't making pro-town wolves. And we're bypassing somebody who was read as wolf in favor of someone who we just suspect of being a corrupt townie. Ignoring something more definite over something with a smaller payoff.

Even if banana is a non-wolf bad actor, she still counts as townie in the win conditions. Leaving wolves alive gets us dangerously closer to their numbers equalling ours, and the margin is already getting small and we lost probably our only remaining townie killer. It's a bad strategy that makes zero sense to me.

 

[Ants!]

Last night FR corroborated your claim about Kat, which makes sense.

Why didn't you try to corroborate his claim about Vash? That doesn't make sense.

Shaman can fuck up my read, but not his. And Vash is too obvious a choice and a smart shaman would have seen it coming. I've said this multiple times.

 

[Ants!]

You're not kind of confirmed at all. No one has checked you and it's all based on information you've given, which I can confirm today as inaccurate.

GwJumpman "kinda" confirms me, as does Kat if we believe Fool.

 

[A Punched Face]

Wolves also aren't making pro-town wolves. And we're bypassing somebody who was read as wolf in favor of someone who we just suspect of being a corrupt townie. Ignoring something more definite over something with a smaller payoff.

Even if banana is a non-wolf bad actor, she still counts as townie in the win conditions. Leaving wolves alive gets us dangerously closer to their numbers equalling ours, and the margin is already getting small and we lost probably our only remaining townie killer. It's a bad strategy that makes zero sense to me.

Cupid pair can't win with their original team and will work against it

 

[A Punched Face]

GwJumpman "kinda" confirms me, as does Kat if we believe Fool.

That's what I said. Your "reads" are what confirms you, not being read yourself. And your read is wrong about me.

 

[Ants!]

That's what I said. Your "reads" are what confirms you, not being read yourself. And your read is wrong about me.

I admit the possibility of a Shaman picking you also last night, but it feels like a long shot to me. If that's what happened, I will apologize after the game and give that player props for completely nailing that move as Benzine will confirm after game: I wasn't even sure myself who I wanted to pick.

 

[Smacktard]

Wolves also aren't making pro-town wolves. And we're bypassing somebody who was read as wolf in favor of someone who we just suspect of being a corrupt townie. Ignoring something more definite over something with a smaller payoff.

Even if banana is a non-wolf bad actor, she still counts as townie in the win conditions. Leaving wolves alive gets us dangerously closer to their numbers equalling ours, and the margin is already getting small and we lost probably our only remaining townie killer. It's a bad strategy that makes zero sense to me.

You sound like the wolf coupled with banana right now. Why are you going to bat so hard for her when she's proven she's not trustworthy? How many more nights must we give her to prove her role? 2 more nights? 5? It's bullshit. Any other player would be gone after two days if they couldn't back up their claim.

There is no reason banana wouldn't use her saving potion and her killing potion last night. Spare me the "nightmare" baloney. I don't for a second believe it would be used on two non-consecutive nights.

So, the most likely scenario is easy to explain:
10 players left
3 wolves
6 town
1 cupid

After today, if we DON'T lynch a wolf:
3 wolves
4 town
1 cupid

At this point, Cupid couple basically controls the game if they play their cards right. They just have to survive one more night, and the town and the wolves are both stuck in gridlock. Non-town-aligned witch uses their potion to kill town or wolf at night, depending on whatever the better target is.

There's no reason we should let an anti-town villager claiming to have bullets run around when they can DOUBLE the kills of town members in one night.

 

[A Punched Face]

What we saw yesterday:

The arsonist is outed (obvious target for the day) and two seer roles outing potentially 2 days worth of lynches right away, and now a third, and yet there have been no kills of them by supposed kill roles. Jump tried but wasn't protected by a claimed protection role as well to finish the job.

Someone is pulling strings here, and it might be the person saying we shouldn't lynch the ineffective witch.

 

[VashTheStampede]

I don't get why you're so sure there's a Cupid

there's a Headhunter right over there. No don't look he'll see you

 

[Smacktard]

Shaman can fuck up my read, but not his. And Vash is too obvious a choice and a smart shaman would have seen it coming. I've said this multiple times.

But Alu is the obvious choice based on your read, even though you admit they can be fucked up? It doesn't make sense.

 

[Ants!]

I can see this is going to be a fight and probably not a unanimous vote. Alu is putting up a good fight as he should and I respect that. Kelly is either compromised or being frustrating. I'm keeping my vote on Alu though.

What's the minimum number to lynch today? 5 or 6? We need to get there.

 

[Ants!]

But Alu is the obvious choice based on your read, even though you admit they can be fucked up? It doesn't make sense.

Any read of mine can be fucked up IF the shaman picks right, which I admit is not impossible, just really long odds on that.

How is this not making sense?

 

[VashTheStampede]

So theoretically the Quagmire read is also a possible Shaman

Lmao

This is why i try to avoid all that logic bullshit

 

[Ants!]

You sound like the wolf coupled with banana right now. Why are you going to bat so hard for her when she's proven she's not trustworthy? How many more nights must we give her to prove her role? 2 more nights? 5? It's bullshit. Any other player would be gone after two days if they couldn't back up their claim.

There is no reason banana wouldn't use her saving potion and her killing potion last night. Spare me the "nightmare" baloney. I don't for a second believe it would be used on two non-consecutive nights.

So, the most likely scenario is easy to explain:
10 players left
3 wolves
6 town
1 cupid

After today, if we DON'T lynch a wolf:
3 wolves
4 town
1 cupid

At this point, Cupid couple basically controls the game if they play their cards right. They just have to survive one more night, and the town and the wolves are both stuck in gridlock. Non-town-aligned witch uses their potion to kill town or wolf at night, depending on whatever the better target is.

There's no reason we should let an anti-town villager claiming to have bullets run around when they can DOUBLE the kills of town members in one night.

YOU'RE the one going bat hard for her. I'm not defending her at all, I referred to her as compromised several times.

I'm going hard for the people that Benzine CONFIRMED to me as wolf. That's my job.

I feel like I'm talking to a crazy person now. Is anyone else seeing this?

 

[VashTheStampede]

YOU'RE the one going bat hard for her. I'm not defending her at all, I referred to her as compromised several times.

I'm going hard for the people that Benzine CONFIRMED to me as wolf. That's my job.

I feel like I'm talking to a crazy person now. Is anyone else seeing this?

I'm starting to rethink the Headhunter thing honestly

Maybe Smacktard and Fool's are lovers and Fool's is a Wolf

 

[Smacktard]

Any read of mine can be fucked up IF the shaman picks right, which I admit is not impossible, just really long odds on that.

How is this not making sense?

It is making sense. What's not making sense is that you are so sure of YOUR reads that you're voting Alu today -- reads that you admit could be compromised. But you're not swayed by actual logic.

I'm voting Banana and I'm not changing my vote. I don't care. I know I'm right.

 

[Ants!]

So theoretically the Quagmire read is also a possible Shaman

Lmao

This is why i try to avoid all that logic bullshit

That's also true. We can't rule out the possibility of shaman until they are the last wolf, when their powers can no longer work. I admit this. Which is why I try to lower those odds as much as possible and pick unlikely people who haven't been in the spotlight with lots of suspicion thrown on them (like you). A shaman would pick somebody like that, expecting me to do so as well. I've said this on day one.

 

[Smacktard]

I'm starting to rethink the Headhunter thing honestly

Maybe Smacktard and Fool's are lovers and Fool's is a Wolf

Target him tonight and see what happens to me then, wolf.

 

[Ants!]

It is making sense. What's not making sense is that you are so sure of YOUR reads that you're voting Alu today -- reads that you admit could be compromised. But you're not swayed by actual logic.

I'm voting Banana and I'm not changing my vote. I don't care. I know I'm right.

"Actual logic" is not what you're using.

 

[Smacktard]

"Actual logic" is not what you're using.

ah yes, it's "actually logical" that banana would claim to be a witch, do nothing, and actually be a good guy

 

[Ants!]

I admit shaman is not impossible, it's just really long odds.

Said this over and over and over.

Voting one of them makes more sense to me.

 

[Ants!]

ah yes, it's "actually logical" that banana would claim to be a witch, do nothing, and actually be a good guy

A compromised good guy, as I've said multiple times.

Still not a wolf vote on the wolf win conditions. And if we kill the wolf she's coupled with, she dies too.

 

[Ants!]

I'm not killing myself trying to convince smacktard of anything. I can see that's impossible now. Just banking on any observers with a brain seeing through all of this.

 

[Smacktard]

A compromised good guy, as I've said multiple times.

Still not a wolf vote on the wolf win conditions. And if we kill the wolf she's coupled with, she dies too.

The only reason a compromised good guy would not kill a wolf is if they were compromised... with a wolf.

 

[Fool's Requiem]

At this moment, I don't have a reason to doubt Ants. At the very least, his Seer read on Jumpman was accurate.

 

[Smacktard]

After today, if we DON'T lynch a wolf:
3 wolves
4 town
1 cupid

Also based on these numbers, if we kill the couple and they both turn out to be town, the town can STILL win because Cupid can win with the town.

If we don't kill the Cupid'd couple, the town loses in pretty much every situation.

 

[Ants!]

How sure are the rest of you (not kelly) that banana is a wolf? If everyone feels confident enough about it and can give me actual reasons, then I can see the sense of killing her and taking out her coupled wolf in the process. Heck maybe it'll even be the third and final wolf I haven't read yet.

Not sold on this plan yet, but I'm open to discussion.

 

[Fool's Requiem]

I don't like voting Banana because it could be a Fool play. I would honestly prefer to go after her last if need be.

 

[Smacktard]

How sure are the rest of you (not kelly)

 

[VashTheStampede]

I'm still not seeing why we're so sure there's a Cupid

Occam's Razor says she's a wolf

 

[Ants!]

I don't like voting Banana because it could be a Fool play. I would honestly prefer to go after her last if need be.

That's a good point. What better way to get lynched than to claim a provable role and then continuously fail to prove it?

 

[Fool's Requiem]

What if we're all Cupid'd together in some manner but in a chain link style where we know we're matched with the person in front but not the person behind.

Edited for CLARITY

 

[VashTheStampede]

What if we're Cupid'd together in some manner but in a chain link style where we know we're matched with the person in front but not the person behind.

That's more of a human centipede situation and I do not consent to that

 

[Ants!]

So if we're thinking cupid, lynching banana might work. If we're thinking fool then it's a death trap. But the day phase just started, we have plenty of time to try to figure this out.

 

[Fool's Requiem]

I added the word "all" to my post, guys

 

[Ants!]

Right now, my hunch is that the wolves are trying HARD to get the lynch off of themselves.

 

[Fool's Requiem]

I'm thinking either Banana is the Fool or a Wolf being coached to lie as much as she can to stay alive. I don't think she's Cupid' with anyone because her actions seem too obvious and risky, IMO.

 

[Banana]

so i already know how this is going to get responded to but i was targeted by the nightmare wolf. on the plus they have nothing left and i can do something tonight finally.
i dont really have proof but i targeted quagmire with my kill and gwjumpman with my protect like we talked about.

 

[Ants!]

Nightmare wolf only has two uses though and that was night 3.

 

[A Punched Face]

Right now, my hunch is that the wolves are trying HARD to get the lynch off of themselves.

Right now I'm trying to get the lynch off myself because I'm 100% not a wolf. You now have two "evil" reads and seem only set on going after me.

 

[A Punched Face]

Nightmare wolf only has two uses though and that was night 3.

What was night 2? She didn't claim getting nightmared the previous one, just that she didn't kill.

 

[Banana]

Nightmare wolf only has two uses though and that was night 3.

okay but that was my second time? has anyone else been targeted by the nightmare wolf?