Zell Wolf GWF Zell Wolf - Version IX - Day 3

[Dean]

Raposuh, Local, TD, Kelly, and Jawneh are my prime suspects at this point

 

[Jon]

I need to go to bed but I feel like I can't until we reach a consensus

If it helps you... I would still rather vote Local... but I will vote Kelly if the village consensus is that.

 

[Dean]

Raposuh, Local, TD, Kelly, and Jawneh are my prime suspects at this point

Honorable mention to Benzine

Yes, even after he defended me

 

[TD]

For us townies there remains the possibility that you're a goddamn liar

I mean if the town collectively agrees that rolling the dice on a 15% chance is our best move I'll join you because then if we're wrong we at least all agreed to fuck up.

 

[Dean]

@VashTheStampede you seemed to dislike the conservative approach of voting for Kelly. Are you more in line with @Jon and voting for Local?

I'm down with voting for any of my five suspects.

 

[Dean]

Sorry, obviously not the dead suspect aka Kit

 

[VashTheStampede]

I mean if the town collectively agrees that rolling the dice on a 15% chance is our best move I'll join you because then if we're wrong we at least all agreed to fuck up.

Have you noticed that your main contribution this game has been second guessing?

It jumps out to me because that's normally my job and I don't appreciate being swaggerjacked.

I also am cognizant of the possibility that people saw me lead the town to doom last game and saw that as a viable wolf strategy and have decided to implement it again in this one.

 

[Dean]

Assuming Raposa was a wolfie, then there are three wolves left, but we don't know about Cupid's chokehold. Will killing a wolf kill a townie? If we are wrong and kill an innocent, we might kill two if they're entangled or whatever. Decisions, decisions...

 

[VashTheStampede]

@TD

How you feeling about local?

 

[TD]

Have you noticed that your main contribution this game has been second guessing?

It jumps out to me because that's normally my job and I don't appreciate being swaggerjacked.

I also am cognizant of the possibility that people saw me lead the town to doom last game and saw that as a viable wolf strategy and have decided to implement it again in this one.

Can I be honest with you?

Of course I'm going to second guess voting Kelly because I genuinely had a blue read on him. I'm a numbers guy.

One of my major tools is one you already adopted and took the lead on. So I can't take charge there.

Another major tool is reading into role claims. However, with EVERYONE being a random role there's no way to objectively compare one claim to the other.

Finally I can't analyze votes with this new system.

It makes this MUCH harder.

 

[Dean]

I'm waiting for the day that Zell does a game with no wolves but doesn't tell anybody just to mess with all of us.

It would be a good April Fool.

 

[A Maybe Baker]

It makes this MUCH harder.

I read this wrong at first because I have my glasses off

 

[TD]

@TD

How you feeling about local?

I mean, good?

He came back blue and his bell ringer claim provided accurate information.

Again, 15% chance he's a wolf.

Typically his activity would be a red flag for me but when he signed up he said he would barely be around.

 

[Dean]

I read this wrong at first because I have my glasses off

Hello, fellow Avenger, and person I just recently stopped trying to get killed

 

[Dean]

Kelly, Jawneh, Benzine, Raposuh would be an interesting wolf pack

 

[TD]

Also avengers, get your ducks in a row for tonight just in case.

 

[TD]

View attachment 4441
I've not been as diligent with note taking today. Been busier at work. And of course, this is MY observation. You still need to conclude your own thing.

Whoa whoa whoa hold up.

Kelly can't be the Voodoo Wolf.

 

[TD]

Also you have yourself believing Benzine but you have both Kelly and Raposuh as wolves.

 

[Dean]

Nobody has claimed Librarian. Maybe Jawneh is the Librarian, Kelly is Wolf Seer. Something like that?

 

[TD]

Nobody has claimed Librarian. Maybe Jawneh is the Librarian, Kelly is Wolf Seer. Something like that?

It could be Librarian OR Voodoo Wolf.

 

[shortkut]

That's why I've been on going after Kelly today. We'd know whether Benzine is full of it or that Kelly is a wolf. Hopefully the latter.

No we won’t. If Kelly is a wolf, Raposuh could still be wolf and benzine a liar to make us think there is an additional wolf to lynch

 

[TD]

And yes. Blind Wolf would get a read of "Strong Villager" as opposed to roles directly.

I'm asking because I know you worked with a Blind Wolf lol..

Would the solo role be revealed specifically as Cupid?

 

[Jon]

Whoa whoa whoa hold up.

Kelly can't be the Voodoo Wolf.

The two wolf names are more there as suspected possible wolf roles. Not necessarily applied to that specific person. Wanted to keep track of the wolf roles we've possibly identified.

Also you have yourself believing Benzine but you have both Kelly and Raposuh as wolves.

And I don't believe Benzine fully. Anyone in grey is on my sus list. So is yellow, butr lower down.

 

[A Maybe Baker]

I'm asking because I know you worked with a Blind Wolf lol..

Would the solo role be revealed specifically as Cupid?

Nah it'll say solo voter.

 

[TD]

The two wolf names are more there as suspected possible wolf roles. Not necessarily applied to that specific person. Wanted to keep track of the wolf roles we've possibly identified.


And I don't believe Benzine fully. Anyone in grey is on my sus list. So is yellow, butr lower down.

Gotcha. Thanks for clarifying your colours.

 

[Jon]

I'm asking because I know you worked with a Blind Wolf lol..

Would the solo role be revealed specifically as Cupid?

No, but if the wolves have a couple member (or both) and they tell their team, they would know.

 

[Dean]

I'm not sold on Local either way.

I'm going to stick with Kelly and head to bed soon.

 

[TD]

No, but if the wolves have a couple member (or both) and they tell their team, they would know.

Hold on.

Are we rolling with the theory the couple has a wolf?

If so this is trouble, it's basically an extra wolf until it's not.

 

[VashTheStampede]

I'm exhausted and I've been burning the candle too much lately. Plus there's a bit of sickness running through the house, and I gotta be careful about that kind of thing. So I'm gonna head to bed and hope things work out.

 

[Jon]

I'm not sold on Local either way.

I'm going to stick with Kelly and head to bed soon.

This is where I'm leaning.

But this would still mean that either Local OR Kelly is a townie. Unless they have BOTH a blind and seer and we miraculously hit them both with TDs check.

 

[A Maybe Baker]

We don't know much about the roles the wolves have. The highest likelihood if they were able to get all the right targets would be if they have both a seer and a blind who are targeting different players. The only other role we've heard whispers of is the nightmare.

 

[Dean]

I'm exhausted and I've been burning the candle too much lately. Plus there's a bit of sickness running through the house, and I gotta be careful about that kind of thing. So I'm gonna head to bed and hope things work out.

Same here. I hope your family feels better soon. It's such a challenging time of year. So much stuff going on, but so many chances to get sick.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Hold on.

Are we rolling with the theory the couple has a wolf?

If so this is trouble, it's basically an extra wolf until it's not.

I'm rolling with the theory they have 2 wolves and we wrap this shit up sooner than expected lol

 

[TD]

We don't know much about the roles the wolves have. The highest likelihood if they were able to get all the right targets would be if they have both a seer and a blind who are targeting different players. The only other role we've heard whispers of is the nightmare.

And Voodoo whispers.

Both have been mentioned by Jawneh today.

Tommy has been mysteriously absent.

 

[shortkut]

been burning the candle too

I didn’t know you celebrated Chanukah!

 

[A Maybe Baker]

We don't know much about the roles the wolves have. The highest likelihood if they were able to get all the right targets would be if they have both a seer and a blind who are targeting different players. The only other role we've heard whispers of is the nightmare.

I guess potentially also the voodoo if Tommy is a good boy who can't participate today.

 

[shortkut]

I'm rolling with the theory they have 2 wolves and we wrap this shit up sooner than expected lol

I still win with the town that way, so I’m up for any bandwagon if this is the case

 

[Jon]

Hold on.

Are we rolling with the theory the couple has a wolf?

If so this is trouble, it's basically an extra wolf until it's not.

I mean, you don't have to. But I think it's a distinct possibility is that the couple is either town/wolf or wolf/wolf. I've been operating under that impression.

And STILL not having a role claim on Jawneh is making me uneasy. He's dodged every attempt at asking.

And the couple has been in the back of my mind to a point where I kind hope we hit it just to remove that variable.

 

[shortkut]

I mean, you don't have to. But I think it's a distinct possibility is that the couple is either town/wolf or wolf/wolf. I've been operating under that impression.

And STILL not having a role claim on Jawneh is making me uneasy. He's dodged every attempt at asking.

And the couple has been in the back of my mind to a point where I kind hope we hit it just to remove that variable.

Not to be self serving, but the couple is the least of the town’s worries. Hitting the couple can only hurt the town unless there are at least one wolf in the couple. The more wolves the better, but if there are two townies, the. Hitting the couple could cripple the town at this rate

 

[Jon]

We don't know much about the roles the wolves have. The highest likelihood if they were able to get all the right targets would be if they have both a seer and a blind who are targeting different players. The only other role we've heard whispers of is the nightmare.

That's some crazy lucky RNG for the wolves if they hit seer, blind, voodoo and nightmare... But those are the 4 powers we've had claimed and it fits their insane luck with roles.

 

[TD]

I mean, you don't have to. But I think it's a distinct possibility is that the couple is either town/wolf or wolf/wolf. I've been operating under that impression.

If this is the case - it's unclear if the wolves will know if one of their own is Cupid'd. They may or may not say.

Beyond that, it offers a weird dynamic that encourages them to win as a couple and if the numbers dwindle, Cupid is a threat.

This is something to keep in mind as we continue.

 

[Jon]

Not to be self serving, but the couple is the least of the town’s worries. Hitting the couple can only hurt the town unless there are at least one wolf in the couple. The more wolves the better, but if there are two townies, the. Hitting the couple could cripple the town at this rate

Oh, I know... my last line was just a desire to remove the variable. Like I said, i'm operating under the assumption that one or both are a wolf. And it seems to fit. Given the passive reluctance of Jawneh to role claim at this point, I have him in the wolf sus list and a member of your couple.

 

[shortkut]

If this is the case - it's unclear if the wolves will know if one of their own is Cupid'd. They may or may not say.

Beyond that, it offers a weird dynamic that encourages them to win as a couple and if the numbers dwindle, Cupid is a threat.

This is something to keep in mind as we continue.

If we wanted the numbers to dwindle, we would need to get some wolves now. Getting only townies would kill our chances of any type of victory… so we’re not a threat to the town at the moment

Seriously, this flawed logic is why I voted for you before

 

[TD]

If we wanted the numbers to dwindle, we would need to get some wolves now. Getting only townies would kill our chances of any type of victory… so we’re not a threat to the town at the moment

Seriously, this flawed logic is why I voted for you before

kut this one is less an accusation of you and more PTSD kicking in.

 

[A Maybe Baker]

I have contractors coming early. So I'm off now but will be back like 2 hours or more before the poll closes.

 

[Jon]

If this is the case - it's unclear if the wolves will know if one of their own is Cupid'd. They may or may not say.

Beyond that, it offers a weird dynamic that encourages them to win as a couple and if the numbers dwindle, Cupid is a threat.

This is something to keep in mind as we continue.

At this point, based on what we've seen, my impression is that the wolves know. And it could be as simple as "let's kill X" and one wolf saying "no don't do that unless you want me to die too!"

They MUST be coordinated and it's in their best interest to have as many alive as possible. The less in their numbers the harder to win. Keeping cupid couple secret if one is a wolf seems... like a bad strat in my opinion.

 

[TD]

If the Cupid'd couple is a townie/wolf pair - that's a threat to both the wolves and town. It's also a threat to the Cupid'd pair themselves.

If it's town/town it's horrible for us.

If it's wolf/wolf it's incredible for us.

 

[shortkut]

If the Cupid'd couple is a townie/wolf pair - that's a threat to both the wolves and town. It's also a threat to the Cupid'd pair themselves.

If it's town/town it's horrible for us.

If it's wolf/wolf it's incredible for us.

If they die it’s horrible for me
If the town wins it’s good for me
If they survive then it’s incredible for me

 

[TD]

The less in their numbers the harder to win. Keeping cupid couple secret if one is a wolf seems... like a bad strat in my opinion.

The wolf/town cupid dynamic does things to people man. We've seen it. The Cupid'd pair either has to try to win together or play against eachother knowing they'll die together.

 

[Jon]

If the Cupid'd couple is a townie/wolf pair - that's a threat to both the wolves and town. It's also a threat to the Cupid'd pair themselves.

If it's town/town it's horrible for us.

If it's wolf/wolf it's incredible for us.

The percentage at the start was most likely town/town. But there have been 5 kills. 3 guaranteed town, a solo and and unknown. The percentage of this being split is the most likely right now. Which is why the wolves being so accurate with their hits screams they have a fuck ton more info than we do. And to me drives home they have at LEAST a seer if not seer and blind