Zell Wolf GWF Zell Wolf - Version IX - Day 3

[A Maybe Baker]

I will say this... blind wolf is feeling more and more likely to be a role.

They were able to knock off two strong villagers in nights one and two... which seems too much coincidence to believe it was lucky guesses on their part.

I'm starting to believe that TD is more likely town and both Kelly and Local are suspect as a wolf and provided false information to his check.

Where does it say the blind wolf and wolf seer would dodge the spirit check? Is it because they don't get a vote? I would assume they would still be shown as having killed because they are wolves?

They don't vote so they're blue, yeah. Zell confirmed that earlier in the thread.

And yes. Blind Wolf would get a read of "Strong Villager" as opposed to roles directly. Wolf seer would see exact roles. If Local is not the Bell Ringer, then there's a wolf seer because that's the only way he would have found kuts exact role.

 

[A Maybe Baker]

I also stated who I protected those nights. I've just guessed wrong.

Yeah, I just didn't remember who they were off the top of my head.

 

[Jon]

They don't vote so they're blue, yeah. Zell confirmed that earlier in the thread.

And yes. Blind Wolf would get a read of "Strong Villager" as opposed to roles directly. Wolf seer would see exact roles. If Local is not the Bell Ringer, then there's a wolf seer because that's the only way he would have found kuts exact role.

I'm really starting to believe blind wolf exists more and more. It feels like they hit strong villagers both nights. And a blind wolf would see "solo non violent" so it seems more likely that's how he would have known.

I dunno, I'm starting to get a VERY bad feeling Local is their Blind Wolf. Checked Fool and someone else night 1 (dunno who else he claimed to check night 1) and the wolves killed Fool as a result. Night 2 he checks Kat and Kut and comes back with strong and solo non violent. They kill Kat, and he outs Kut.

I think I'm starting to feel more comfortable knocking him out. They are unlikely to protect him in any way even with votes because his role is no longer useful. All stong and solos are ID'd

 

[Jon]

Yeah, I just didn't remember who they were off the top of my head.

No worries.

Night 1 was #7 (Local).
Night 2 was TD.
Night 3 was Benzine.

Not that it matters.

 

[Jon]

Ok, I think I'm all in on Local here. Went back and looked. He had a total of 5 posts day one and made no mention or hint as to a role at ALL. Not even that he watched anyone. Even his bell ringer claim didn't come till day 2.

This just fits timelines too well for my liking.

 

[Jon]

It also stands to reason that he knew kut was cupid because one of the couple is a wolf and told his team. At least I think that's a possibility.

 

[shortkut]

It also stands to reason that he knew kut was cupid because one of the couple is a wolf and told his team. At least I think that's a possibility.

The couple wouldn’t know I was cupid

 

[Jon]

The couple wouldn’t know I was cupid

No, but if one said they are coupled (or two wolves are), and he's a blind wolf and it comes back as "Solo non violent" they know.

 

[shortkut]

No, but if one said they are coupled (or two wolves are), and he's a blind wolf and it comes back as "Solo non violent" they know.

I don’t think there have been enought night phases for them to check everyone you Said they did

 

[Jon]

I don’t think there have been enought night phases for them to check everyone you Said they did

How so?

Night 1, they check fool and someone else. They see Fool is strong, other is regular, kill Fool.

Night 2, they check Kat and you, Kat comes back strong you come back solo. Kill Kat, if a wolf (or both) are coupled and tell their team, they know your exact role. He outs you and claims bell ringer.

Then he conveniently never needs to use his powers again and can claim he did his job.

 

[Jon]

The other option is like Alu said. He's a Wolf Seer and got exact roles. But the amount of pure dumb luck they would have had strikes me as unlikely. Because he would have needed to check you, Fool and Kat in the first two nights. Possible, though I find it less likely. He could have checked you night 1, saw you are cupid and night 2 checked Kat and they just got lucky night 1 hitting Fool.

Either way, both options feel more likely than he's a bell ringer at this point in my eyes.

Unless something drastic changes between now and when I go to bed, I'm almost certain I'm voting for Local.

 

[shortkut]

How so?

Night 1, they check fool and someone else. They see Fool is strong, other is regular, kill Fool.

Night 2, they check Kat and you, Kat comes back strong you come back solo. Kill Kat, if a wolf (or both) are coupled and tell their team, they know your exact role. He outs you and claims bell ringer.

Then he conveniently never needs to use his powers again and can claim he did his job.

Could work.

The other option is like Alu said. He's a Wolf Seer and got exact roles. But the amount of pure dumb luck they would have had strikes me as unlikely. Because he would have needed to check you, Fool and Kat in the first two nights. Possible, though I find it less likely. He could have checked you night 1, saw you are cupid and night 2 checked Kat and they just got lucky night 1 hitting Fool.

Either way, both options feel more likely than he's a bell ringer at this point in my eyes.

Unless something drastic changes between now and when I go to bed, I'm almost certain I'm voting for Local.

sounds good to me. He’s been on my list for some time now

 

[Jon]

@shortkut Should I be worried about the sheer agreeance you just had with me? Not that I want to cast doubt, but I haven't exactly proven myself as others have liked to point out lol.

Don't get me wrong. I'm grateful it feels like at least one person believes me...

 

[shortkut]

@shortkut Should I be worried about the sheer agreeance you just had with me? Not that I want to cast doubt, but I haven't exactly proven myself as others have liked to point out lol.

Don't get me wrong. I'm grateful it feels like at least one person believes me...

I have suspects for wolves and local was in it. Anyone who wants to kill people on my sus list is alright in my book

 

[Jon]

I have suspects for wolves and local was in it. Anyone who wants to kill people on my sus list is alright in my book

 

[Dean]

Ok, I think I'm all in on Local here. Went back and looked. He had a total of 5 posts day one and made no mention or hint as to a role at ALL. Not even that he watched anyone. Even his bell ringer claim didn't come till day 2.

This just fits timelines too well for my liking.

@TD said Local and Kelly didn't kill night 0, and Fool's was killed by werewolves. Any way TD would be wrong if he is the Spirit Seer?

 

[shortkut]

@TD said Local and Kelly didn't kill night 0, and Fool's was killed by werewolves. Any way TD would be wrong if he is the Spirit Seer?

There are two wolves that do not vote with the other wolves and as such do not show as red on a check unless they give up their abilities

 

[Jon]

@TD said Local and Kelly didn't kill night 0, and Fool's was killed by werewolves. Any way TD would be wrong if he is the Spirit Seer?

I asked this above. Alu said zell confirmed blind wolf and wolf seer don't vote with wolves so wouldn't show as having killed.

 

[Dean]

My bad, I'm trying to go back and (over)analyze.

 

[VashTheStampede]

I keep going back to Dean threatening to kill the one person who was cleared by multiple people as a townie "out of spite"...

BUT I also look at the fact that we just couldn't get a vote on Kelly to the threshold for a lynch. And seemingly can't get there with Dean either.

Thats REAL interesting.

 

[VashTheStampede]

We would have had Kelly over the top but Jawneh didn't move to Kelly until I had moved over to Dean (to see how TD would react)

 

[Dean]

I keep going back to Dean threatening to kill the one person who was cleared by multiple people as a townie "out of spite"...

BUT I also look at the fact that we just couldn't get a vote on Kelly to the threshold for a lynch. And seemingly can't get there with Dean either.

Thats REAL interesting.

I'm being honest when I say I haven't been paying attention or trying for most of the game. I'm also very spiteful.

I was really hoping me keeping my word and posting the Mike Boogie promo with Daniel Shine cameo would prove my innocence.

 

[VashTheStampede]

I was really hoping me keeping my word and posting the Mike Boogie promo with Daniel Shine cameo would prove my innocence.

It proved you were a man of your word about you getting off the hook for yesterday's lynch, but it didn't tie into your actual role situation as I read it.

 

[A Maybe Baker]

We would have had Kelly over the top but Jawneh didn't move to Kelly until I had moved over to Dean (to see how TD would react)

I've been sitting on the outside looking in to see if anyone would be pushed over the edge without me getting involved. Trying to see if I can figure out voting patterns from it.

 

[finlandguy]

We would have had Kelly over the top but Jawneh didn't move to Kelly until I had moved over to Dean (to see how TD would react)

Not quite. Both Kelly and Local jumped on Dean right after Kelly did his long post. The two of us actually did our vote switches at the same time lol. 3 people, but the forum only showed me and TD at the time on Kelly and after I refreshed you were on Dean.

Could've been like half an hour difference too if I didn't refresh before changing my vote. Weird forum quirk that stuck to my mind though.

 

[Jon]

If we can find additional likely targets as wolves, wouldn't it be pertinent to hold on Dean in the small off chance he's being honest and IS an Avenger? Having two of those left is a big threat to the wolves to give pause on killing them.

I understand the sus on Dean, i really do. But me, I'm personally higher on Local than Dean right now. And I think we REALLY need a wolf kill.

 

[Dean]

This game is exhausting lol

 

[Jon]

Tommy has also been posting in other forums for a bit now as a couple of alerts are from him in threads I follow. So he's either voodoo'd himself or he's being willfully ignorant of this thread. I'm leaning the former.

 

[Dean]

Tommy has also been posting in other forums for a bit now as a couple of alerts are from him in threads I follow. So he's either voodoo'd himself or he's being willfully ignorant of this thread. I'm leaning the former.

Dumb question, and I'm sure the answer is buried among 40+ pages... What's stopping you from thinking that Tommy was the Voodoo Wolf victim?

 

[shortkut]

I think the librarian got @Tommy Boy

 

[finlandguy]

If we can find additional likely targets as wolves, wouldn't it be pertinent to hold on Dean in the small off chance he's being honest and IS an Avenger? Having two of those left is a big threat to the wolves to give pause on killing them.

That's why I've been on going after Kelly today. We'd know whether Benzine is full of it or that Kelly is a wolf. Hopefully the latter.

 

[VashTheStampede]

That's why I've been on going after Kelly today. We'd know whether Benzine is full of it or that Kelly is a wolf. Hopefully the latter.

I think this option still makes the most sense. It's the most conservative move, which is very unappealing. But it gives a lot more threads to pull.

 

[Dean]

I'll go along with a Kelly vote at this point. I haven't really come up with anything yet.

 

[Jon]

Dumb question, and I'm sure the answer is buried among 40+ pages... What's stopping you from thinking that Tommy was the Voodoo Wolf victim?

Nothing, really. I just haven't ruled Tommy out completely and the fact he was silent today was odd. i wanted his input. If he doesn't post and doesn't react this entire day, I'm more apt to believe he's a townie and there is a voodoo wolf.

I did say earlier, my ONLY pause to this is the oddity that the voodoo wolf (that has unlimited uses and affect applies even if killed) did not act in days one and 2. That was my reason for pause of it being true.

That's why I've been on going after Kelly today. We'd know whether Benzine is full of it or that Kelly is a wolf. Hopefully the latter.

I understood the reasoning from the beginning to be honest. And Kelly was my "I'm lynching him before I go to bed" target before I came up with the theory about Local, which feels too likely at this point.

 

[Jon]

I will go along with Kelly, particularly if it's a make or break vote... but I'm still higher on Local at this point.

 

[VashTheStampede]

I'm voting Kelly. Would feel a lot better about seeing more join that party before I go to bed because there's a good chance I sleep in past the deadline.

 

[Dean]

@TD could have been full of shit. I don't think he, Local, and Kelly would all vote for me together if they're wolves, though.

 

[VashTheStampede]

@TD could have been full of shit. I don't think he, Local, and Kelly would all vote for me together if they're wolves, though.

That was exactly what I was just thinking lol

 

[Dean]

That was exactly what I was just thinking lol

I hope you realize that I am really village Avenger and have been super busy IRL

 

[TD]

@TD said Local and Kelly didn't kill night 0, and Fool's was killed by werewolves. Any way TD would be wrong if he is the Spirit Seer?

Blind wolf or wolf seer.

@TD could have been full of shit. I don't think he, Local, and Kelly would all vote for me together if they're wolves, though.

I love that you tagged me JUST to tell me I'm full of shit.

 

[Dean]

For the record, I'm not targeting Alu anymore

 

[Jon]

That's why I've been on going after Kelly today. We'd know whether Benzine is full of it or that Kelly is a wolf. Hopefully the latter.

I would still feel a lot better if I knew or had an idea about your role... At this point you're the only one that hasn't full blown claimed something and that still gives me unease. I have one more village spot in my current spreadsheet, and I WANT to give it to you... but I can't because you've been reluctant. I understand why... but I'm still having a hard time fully going down this rabbit hole with you being the only question mark.

 

[Dean]

I would still feel a lot better if I knew or had an idea about your role... At this point you're the only one that hasn't full blown claimed something and that still gives me unease. I have one more village spot in my current spreadsheet, and I WANT to give it to you... but I can't because you've been reluctant. I understand why... but I'm still having a hard time fully going down this rabbit hole with you being the only question mark.

Do you mind sharing your spreadsheet or pointing to the last time you did?

 

[TD]

Is Kelly the consensus again?

So we banking on blind wolf or wolf seer?

I'm gonna read what I missed.

 

[VashTheStampede]

So we banking on blind wolf or wolf seer?

Or option 3

 

[Jon]

Do you mind sharing your spreadsheet or pointing to the last time you did?

I've not been as diligent with note taking today. Been busier at work. And of course, this is MY observation. You still need to conclude your own thing.

 

[TD]

Or option 3

...townie? lol

 

[Jon]

Oops, gotta move the corruptor kill from yours. Been moving a lot of names and forgot to switch that one.

 

[VashTheStampede]

...townie? lol

For us townies there remains the possibility that you're a goddamn liar

 

[VashTheStampede]

I need to go to bed but I feel like I can't until we reach a consensus