Zell Wolf GWF Wolf - Zell's Version Night 1/Day 1/Night 2

[shortkut]

So you believe canadaguy is a second aura seer, then?

It seems plausible. He only pointed out roles with a good aura, implying he knows cole’s aura is unknown. That eliminates the sheriff role as the sheriff has a good aura.

 

[TD]

Almost seems as though you're trying to deflect from your own suspicion.

Do I have you seeing red from your frustration?

I wish I was seeing red.

 

[TD]

It seems plausible. He only pointed out roles with a good aura, implying he knows cole’s aura is unknown. That eliminates the sheriff role as the sheriff has a good aura.

This assumes he is telling the truth. The fact that you also picked up on that could also means he's just trying to imply that now.

Again - 20% chance of a second aura seer existing. After that 20%, there is then a 7% chance that it is canadaguy if that 20% chance is met.

On the flipside, there's a 36% chance he is a wolf.

 

[VashTheStampede]

I have a firm theory on Cole that I will unveil after the second info drop.

 

[Ants!]

And that could be Cole screwing with everyone to generate discussion and then analyze what people are saying.

Saying shit to generate convo and then analyze it is a smart play, and to quote you - he's smart.

I had this thought too, honestly.

 

[Ryan!]

I wish I was seeing red.

At the moment, my top suspects for Wolves are you and FR. And the fact Vash is going along with you makes it very suspicious to me.

It's possible you're actually the Fool. You jumped onto the bandwagon early and voted almost immediately after I suspected FR. It's similar to the play Tommy made last game. And now you're just trying to deflect the attention off of yourself by making another accusation.

Again, Gunner needs to get rid of Cole. If I end up dying tonight, TD, FR, and Vash need to be looked into heavily.

 

[TD]

...do you genuinely believe that 3 wolves would make an alliance so obvious during day 1?

I'll also add - anyone who has played a wolf/mafia game in the OG GW should not be surprised by my playstyle.

 

[Ryan!]

...do you genuinely believe that 3 wolves would make an alliance so obvious during day 1?

You and FR haven't made any kind of alliance. I don't know if he's agreed with you at all, actually. I'd have to go back and read. It's just been you and Vash.

 

[shortkut]

This assumes he is telling the truth. The fact that you also picked up on that could also means he's just trying to imply that now.

Again - 20% chance of a second aura seer existing. After that 20%, there is then a 7% chance that it is canadaguy if that 20% chance is met.

On the flipside, there's a 36% chance he is a wolf.

Out of the 14 unknown aura roles, 7 are townies. Out of the unknown aura roles, only 1 can have 100% certainty of knowing who a wolf is, the alpha wolf. We know Cole is not the alpha wolf. The only reason to claim 100% knowledge when he shouldn’t have it is if he doesn’t mind being wrong because he would get lynched. That is trying to be the fool. If he is the fool, he doesn’t care if he gets lynched. If he isn’t, he needs to hope we believe he is the fool.

If he was a townie, I expect him to play more conservatively unless he knew he had someone to protect him, that suggest he isn’t a townie. That makes me think he is one of the RK

 

[shortkut]

...do you genuinely believe that 3 wolves would make an alliance so obvious during day 1?

I'll also add - anyone who has played a wolf/mafia game in the OG GW should not be surprised by my playstyle.

Who would be the third? You, Fool, and who else?

 

[TD]

The biggest thing connecting us is our co-belief that we are being too eager with the gunner.

We know Cole is not a wolf. The wolves benefit greatly from the death of the solo killer because their win condition becomes easier. We would not be trying to save the RK if we were wolves.

IF Cole even is the RK, at that.

(EDIT: Should probably have quoted, this was in response to Ryan about Vash and I).

 

[Ryan!]

And I wholeheartedly admit you could be the Fool. If Vash ends up being a Wolf, it works out great for you because it's puts a ton of suspicion on you and you end up getting lynched and winning the game.

 

[Ryan!]

The biggest thing connecting us is our co-belief that we are being too eager with the gunner.

We know Cole is not a wolf. The wolves benefit greatly from the death of the solo killer because their win condition becomed easier. We would not be trying to save the RK if we were wolves.

IF Cole even is the RK, at that.

The town benefits from the RK going down even more. We can assume he isn't the Corruptor, as that role can't stack kills. If he's the Serial Killer, he can stack a bunch of kills and just take out multiple people in one night. Same for the Arsonist.

The town only benefits if we get the RK early. Moreno than it benefits the Wolves.

 

[TD]

The game literally becomes easier for the wolves to win when the RK dies. They have to kill less of the town.

The town still needs to kill 4 wolves if we kill the RK and have to act even faster to win.

 

[Zell 17]

"If they watched a wolf kill, they will be given info on the lowest ranking remaining wolf and another villager at random (who may be any role)."

Do we know what EXACTLY this means?

Cause the way I read it, if the sheriff observes a kill he is rewarded with information on both a wolf and a townie.

The townie could be our upcoming info drop.

Could be two wolves. You get told two names. One is a guaranteed wolf, and the other is totally at random. The other could be a villager, other wolf, killer, fool, etc.

 

[TD]

Who would be the third? You, Fool, and who else?

Based on what he said, he seemed to suggest Vash already.

 

[Ryan!]

Based on what he said, he seemed to suggest Vash already.

I said Vash was suspicious and should be looked into. Whether he's a Wolf or not I have no idea.

 

[Tubby23]

There is a 33% chance he is a wolf.

On the flipside, there's a 36% chance he is a wolf.

Which is it?

 

[Ryan!]

The game literally becomes easier for the wolves to win when the RK dies. They have to kill less of the town.

The town still needs to kill 4 wolves if we kill the RK and have to act even faster to win.

They can't eliminate the RK unless he gets lynched. They are unable to kill him. It isn't easier for them whatsoever.

 

[Ants!]

The game literally becomes easier for the wolves to win when the RK dies. They have to kill less of the town.

The town still needs to kill 4 wolves if we kill the RK and have to act even faster to win.

The logic of this is baffling me, it’s literally backwards. The wolves have more kills to make than the townies, so eliminating a killer that kills both sides benefits the side that needs to whittle down greater numbers?

 

[Ants!]

Since Zell says it’s okay, here is a copy/paste I did just now from his actual first PM to us wolves from last game:

“The solo killer and the fool are your tentative allies. The fool being alive will make the village less likely to vote. The solo killer can help the wolves wipe out the villagers.”

So defending either role does not look good on you.

 

[TD]

Which is it?

Fair call out.
When I said 33, I actually included myself in the player count cause early morning math. I'm not a wolf, so I removed myself from it.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Yeah I don't get that one either

 

[shortkut]

Fair call out.
When I said 33, I actually included myself in the player count cause early morning math. I'm not a wolf, so I removed myself from it.

Are you claiming to be the RK? You seem intent on keeping the possible RK alive

 

[VashTheStampede]

Since Zell says it’s okay, here is a copy/paste I did just now from his actual first PM to us wolves from last game:

“The solo killer and the fool are your tentative allies. The fool being alive will make the village less likely to vote. The solo killer can help the wolves wipe out the villagers.”

So defending either role does not look good on you.

Just because the Fool can help the wolves does not mean he can't be useful for the town too.

 

[TD]

They can't eliminate the RK unless he gets lynched. They are unable to kill him. It isn't easier for them whatsoever.

The logic of this is baffling me, it’s literally backwards. The wolves have more kills to make than the townies, so eliminating a killer that kills both sides benefits the side that needs to whittle down greater numbers?

With the RK dead, the wolves only need to make up half of all players alive and they win. Thus, they need to kill less people to win and can win faster.

Their literal first call out in winning conditions is that they want the RK dead.

 

[VashTheStampede]

There's no arguing with the exclamation crew

 

[TD]

Are you claiming to be the RK? You seem intent on keeping the possible RK alive

Not sure how you drew that conclusion.

I don't necessarily want the RK alive, I'm just not convinced Cole is the RK, and the wolves are a bigger problem right now.

 

[Ryan!]

Are you claiming to be the RK? You seem intent on keeping the possible RK alive

I hadn't really thought of this, but it's possible. I can admit my ego makes it difficult to not get tunnel vision at times. It's at least worth exploring.

What were you up to last night, TD?

 

[Ants!]

Just because the Fool can help the wolves does not mean he can't be useful for the town too.

Back up statements like these.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Hey Ryan, please try and convince me. Why are you so sure Cole's claim of cg being a wolf is less credible than cg saying "nuh uh"?

 

[TD]

I hadn't really thought of this, but it's possible. I can admit my ego makes it difficult to not get tunnel vision at times. It's at least worth exploring.

What were you up to last night, TD?

I've made enough definitive statements for that to be figured out.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Back up statements like these.

The town can win with the Fool alive and helping to eliminate wolves.

 

[Ants!]

With the RK dead, the wolves only need to make up half of all players alive and they win. Thus, they need to kill less people to win and can win faster.

Their literal first call out in winning conditions is that they want the RK dead.

The RK has better odds of hitting a townie. On average every wolf kill will go with two or three townie kills. He befits the wolves more.

 

[Ryan!]

Hey Ryan, please try and convince me. Why are you so sure Cole's claim of cg being a wolf is less credible than cg saying "nuh uh"?

I'm not fully convinced. I think Cole took a shot in the dark. It's entirely possible he got lucky and found a Wolf. CG has been laying pretty low since he made the claim.

I'm almost certain about Cole, again, based on his behavior. It's extremely odd. He's been wasting a lot of time so we don't make any decisions when we are already down two townies. He's almost acting too much like the Fool here. Whether that's to make the Wolves think he's an ally so they don't night kill him, I don't know. But it just doesn't seem right to me.

 

[Ryan!]

I've made enough definitive statements for that to be figured out.

We can agree to disagree.

 

[Ants!]

The town can win with the Fool alive and helping to eliminate wolves.

So? One vote, that’s all you got for the “Pros” list? And that outweighs people being too scared to lynch wolves for the entire game?

 

[VashTheStampede]

Back up statements like these.

The town can win with the Fool alive and helping to eliminate wolves.

So? One vote, that’s all you got for the “Pros” list? And that outweighs people being too scared to lynch wolves for the entire game?

Look man, you show me a definite Fool, I'm all about killing him. But shooting at shadows is how you get a Tubby Boy.

 

[TD]

We can agree to disagree.

What I'm saying is - you asked what I was up to. Between the things I've said, a good detective will know what I was up to, and what I know.

 

[VashTheStampede]

I'm almost certain about Cole, again, based on his behavior. It's extremely odd. He's been wasting a lot of time so we don't make any decisions when we are already down two townies. He's almost acting too much like the Fool here. Whether that's to make the Wolves think he's an ally so they don't night kill him, I don't know. But it just doesn't seem right to me.

Analysis like this I can appreciate.

I think everyone can agree that Cole is acting fuckin WEIRD.

But demanding a gunner kill based on that is extreme IMO, especially when there is just as likely a chance that he has a noble reason as a villainous one.

 

[shortkut]

If we know 100% who the fool is, it behooves the town to keep them alive because it takes one person out of the poop of people to lynch, increasing the odds we get a wolf. If we don’t know who it is, it makes it harder because everyone pretends to be the fool and we are afraid to pull the trigger on lynching people which benefits the wolves

 

[shortkut]

I think everyone can agree that Cole is acting fuckin WEIRD

Maybe he’s just high

 

[VashTheStampede]

So? One vote, that’s all you got for the “Pros” list? And that outweighs people being too scared to lynch wolves for the entire game?

Ok this attitude stuck in my craw and I'm kind of annoyed by it.

I think we all just need to chill out here. Y'all are trampling all over my good vibes, man.

 

[Ryan!]

What I'm saying is - you asked what I was up to. Between the things I've said, a good detective will know what I was up to, and what I know.

I think we both know what you were up to.

 

[TD]

I think we both know what you were up to.

Obviously I know what I was up to. You however, are pretty off. I thought you were getting there but you did a 180.

 

[Ants!]

If we know 100% who the fool is, it behooves the town to keep them alive because it takes one person out of the poop of people to lynch, increasing the odds we get a wolf. If we don’t know who it is, it makes it harder because everyone pretends to be the fool and we are afraid to pull the trigger on lynching people which benefits the wolves

If we somehow had 100% confirmation on the fool (though I’m not sure how to get it), then yes I agree that it’s better to keep them around to help us vote.

 

[Ants!]

Kut summarized my feelings on the fool pretty well.

 

[Ryan!]

Obviously I know what I was up to. You however, are pretty off. I thought you were getting there but you did a 180.

Oh I think I'm pretty aware of what you were up to.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Kut summarized my feelings on the fool pretty well.

What are your thoughts on what we should do today?

 

[TD]

Oh I think I'm pretty aware of what you were up to.

I can't wait unti it's proven you're wrong.