As I said above, I think most everyone in this town is nearly 100% on me being a townie and exactly the role I claim. So my hope is that this post can come from a place where everyone can trust that it is authentic (not just a wolf play to get you to look at the wrong people, I'm not re-reading the thread at this moment, th is is from memory, feel free to correct anything I left out or was wrong about.)
Cole: first person to reveal their role, later veritably confirmed to be the Witch after Holly erroneously assumed there was only one witch, and then confirming that I had quoted Zells PM verbatim. (This was also later inadvertantly confirmed by Zell himself when he said quoting directly from the PM is a no-go, thus implying I was being truthful.) I also at one point began to suspect Fools of being an enemy of the town, others seemed to pick up on the idea, and Fools kind of sank himself into a deep hole by refusing to be specific about anything, and instead just complaining that he was dead. Through a course of events, we developed a plan of protection and a double witch killings that would kill both Ants (revealed to be Witch Seer) and Fools (revealed to be Serial Killer). The plan was constructed to avoid a potential fool kill, of which both were 50/50 on acting like. Both kills were successful, and no one in the ring of protection was harmed.
shortkut: shortkut revealed in response, he stated that he had investigated myself and Ants! on night 0, and that we were revealed to have been different teams. the reason kut chose this moment to reveal, is because we now had a verifiable combination that could result in virtually any detection we choose. shortkuts role was pretty much completely confirmed by finding out that Ants was in fact the town seer. in theory, shortkut very well could have been bluffing and got lucky on Ants. His most recent investigation has been a LOT less reliable once there were claims of shaman interference. I don't think we can say shortkut is 100% townie, but I think it's a safe assumption to make at the same time. he is capable of playing a con this long and this well. But I find it unlikely in this instance.
Ryan: I don't remember how exactly it happened, but very quickly on day 1 after I revealed (I don't remember if it was before or after shortkut) that he claimed he was the Bodyguard, and had protected me night 0 after erroneously assuming that because I was wolf in last game, it was unlikely I would be in this game. STATS RYAN! Anyway, Ryan was looped into our plan of protection, BUT, his role is not confirmable through protection. It's possible the wolves never wanted to target me last night. It's possible Ryan IS a wolf and said "I'm claiming I'm protecting Cole, so we can't kill him tonight" and with no other killers left, it was a safe bet. A few of his posts have also rang suspicious to ME specifically. One of them was in response to Alus suggesting that the Shaman could have masked Holly instead of myself *correctly* anticipating what shortkut would do. Ryan latched on to this idea VERY quickly, and I don't remember exactly what rang my alarm bells, but I remember reading it as fishy. Since then his words and actions have been a little flaky. If I had to pick someone from this list to lynch tomorrow with no more information and no time left? I'd pick Ryan.
Holly: Holly thought there was only one witch per game, and accused me of lying and that I was definitely a wolf because I cant be the witch. After being pressed, she revealed that SHE was the witch and reiterated she believed me to be a wolf. She was then shown that there is potential for more than one witch in the game. She then also realized I had quoted Zell *directly* in my message, which confirmed to her that I am 100% genuine. I would say Holly was the first to 100% confirm me as townie because she knew the PM I had. Holly at this juncture can be assumed nearly 100% safe. For me personally, since I know for a fact I'm a witch, and since she identified my post as having been exact, then she is definitely the other witch (or hacked my DMs, is this 84572D chess?)
That was the first burst, that's more a catchup job.
Today produced some new events, and therefore, new suspects (or new confirmed civis) were introduced.
Vash: shortkut investigated Vash compared to HOLLY last night. Which was contrary to shortkuts intended plans. since he knew Holly is innocent via me, she was a guaranteed comparison, if Vash wasn't on her team, he's an enemy. Seemed cut and dry. But then Vash pointed out that he could have been shaman'd and it would mask his team orientation and it would LOOK like he was on the opposite team. But to shortkut and myself, this seemed highly unlikely. Why would the Shaman choose a random other player when there was SO many players to focus on at the moment, they had fellow wolves under fire. Seemed odd. But what shortkut and I had both forgotten, and *ALU* had pointed out, the shaman may have anticipated shortkut switching from me to Holly as "baseline" for that night phase, and instead masked HER causing HER to appear evil, and anyone else she was compared to to ha ve "opposite teams". This halted the tracks. Along the way, Vash had claimed he was the seer, that he had investigated Fire Queen, and she was confirmed evil. A wolf. But can Vash be trusted? Throughout the rest of the day phase, through Fire Queens posts, as well as examination of the evidence and whether or not Vash would risk the reveal if it would backfire on him, I think we mostly (but definitely I) have settled on him being innocent in this as well. *IF FIRE QUEEN IS LYNCHED AND IS A WOLF* He, in my mind, make him about equal to shortkut level of innocence. It's not 100% and could be high level gameplay, but more realistically he's telling the truth.
Alu: Alu was quiet the first stretch of the game, and I personally knew he was going to be. He told me he was travelling. But since being active, he has increased his suspicion level rapidly. *HE* was the first one to come to Vashs aide, giving him an out by explaining the way the Shaman could have masked Holly. Could be Alu is just very aware of the rules and roles and made the same leap that shortkut did. It did rub me as suspicious though. It just seemed too perfect a plot. All we can do in life is compare others actions to what we THINK we would have done, right? Well I had forgotten that shortkut could just use Holly as the same baseline that I am, and "if I had forgotten it, surely everyone else had too", the fact that Alu knew this? Not only does that mean he's better than me at this game, but he must be the only other one that made this connection. He proposed Kat could have made this arrangement as well. Alu later claimed to be the "third of the extra roles", a comment both unverifiable, but still marginally helpful in knowing which guaranteed roles are still in the game.
Fire Queen: DIE WOLF BITCH! DIEEEEE!
I think thats all the people that have roles claimed in this game.
But as I was typing this, I had kind of a realization. I think I'm pretty good at wolf games? Those that remember them from back in the day can I think remember me being good at BOTH sides of the game, wolf and town.
Everyone keeps getting worried about some 5D chess shit. Someone on the wolves is making these HUGE very specific moves to craft this brilliant story. But I don't think that's the case. K.I.S.S. Occams Razor, the simplest answer is often the correct answer.
The simplest answer is that SO FAR almost everyone is telling the truth. Honestly? Now that I've typed this out, I think it's even possible that EVERYONE is telling the truth. I began this game with a simple message, last game everyone thought I won by lying, when in actuality, I lie minimally in these games only when ABSOLUTELY necessary. But for this game, I chose not only full honesty, but full DISCLOSURE, I would reveal each and all thought processes i had, actions I took at night, all of it. In that I revealed my role. it caused a cascade effect of everyone else revealing and ALSO needing to be honest. Almost every. single. role. reveal so far has been "forced" by the course of events. Ryan revealed when he was backed into a corner. Holly revealed after her msitake about witch numbers. Vash revealed when shortkuts investigation came up bad for him. Alu PARTIALLY revealed when he had SOME suspicion on him. (My guess is that if more suspicion gets on him, he will fully reveal.)
So I have a suspicion that almost every OR INDEED every member of the town that has claimed a role is telling the truth.
So where the fuck does that leave us?
Alu (50/50), Kat, Tommy Boy, Dean, Killface, Jawneh
Those are the people that haven't roll claimed at all (or in alus case, partially). If this theory is right, Fire Queen will be revealed as wolf. Which means there are 2 wolves and 1 fool left in that group of 5.5. I think those are very reasonable odds if everyone else is telling the truth.
Here's what else I know.
This game isn't being mastermined by someone playing 200D chess. But there *IS* someone guiding that ship with a great degree of skill and precision. My two highest prospects for THAT role would be Alu and Kat. (No disrespect to the rest, I think I've only regularly played wolf with Dean, and his strength isn't in the big complicated planning.) Both Alu and Kat could be helping to orchestrate this for the wolves, even if everyones telling the truth, there have been a number of VERY smart wolf plays to make it as difficult as possible. In my opinion, it is likely that Alu or Kat are a wolf, *but not both*. There's a possibility they've planned to disagree in this way, but I have my doubts. So my current theory is Alu or Kat, not both, but that one of them is a wolf.
Tommy is also suspicious to me. Between his *immediate* trust of me and his firm belief that we needed to vote day 1, but then changing it when confronted, ARE both suspicious behaviors. And I could even believe he's the fool. It's possible he ABSOLUTELY DID NOT trust my day 1 witch post, and instead latched onto it assuming it was a lie as the fool. Once I died revealed to be a wolf, he would be lynched the very next day.
Dean, Killface, Jawneh, of the three, I don't think I have a firm stance on either of them. Both Dean and Jawneh have posted a bit, but a lot of them have been "recap" style posts with little more. Killface has been relatively inactive (self admitted.) If I had to pick from this group? I'd say Jawneh, but with absolutely no certainty.
So there you have it. ANOTHER novel of a post from me trying to narrow down suspects. Maybe this'll make the closing hours of this day a bit more enjoyable.
Luckily I just kept it all in my head and just got taught by others as they post things I thought were wrong and contradictory, but it was just me being wrong and not comprehending what I read properly. 
