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FQ Wolf GWF Wolf Vol. 1 Discussion Thread: WOLVES WIN
- Thread starter Fire Queen
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I did read through most of what you and kut were saying in case there was something there to take note of.
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Gimme a min then. I need to try to deal with this on my phone. Might have to wait till tomorrow morning at worst. And to reiterate, this could be a false lead thanks to the vash lynch that I'm gleaming.
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So, uhh... real funny story. I went through the first days again like three more times and whatever I was trying to pin on you... I got nothing man lol. I also mixed Vash with Isoor, since it was Isoor who voted for you, so I think I just went and fucked up my thoughts and got things mixed up in my noggin.
But keep your vote though. I'm just a dumb dumb. I deserve it. this feels again like vash. an honest mistake thst looks really bad.So, uhh... real funny story. I went through the first days again like three more times and whatever I was trying to pin on you... I got nothing man lol. I also mixed Vash with Isoor, since it was Isoor who voted for you, so I think I just went and fucked up my thoughts and got things mixed up in my noggin.
but it looks kinda bad...
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Just got done going through the entire game to see if anything jumps out at me. Not something I typically bother to do in these games, but we have so little to go on with no special roles and whatnot, and I had no idea who to suspect at this point. I've never been great at these games. I overthink and second guess way too much to ever truly know what's going on, but here's what I got.
I gotta be honest. I really do not think Jawneh is suspicious at all. Never really have. The leading reason for most of the game seems to be just because he was talking a lot. But most of that talking was antagonizing Warp. And I don't really blame him for that because Warp was saying a lot of weird shit in general, and was part of the Day 1 Kill Gang along with shortkut. The reasonings Jawneh has given has been pretty sound to me. Only somewhat interesting thing of note was the little "pulling Cole down with him" debate imo.
On the subject of Cole I am conflicted. This is the first game I've played with him where I haven't really thought he was all that suspicious. Which, in an assbackwards way, makes me way more suspicious of him suddenly. He's good at talking and he's good at making himself look good. But up until recently he's made a lot of sense to me as well. It's stupid to insist on voting someone out on day 1. After all, why shouldn't we go after kut and Warp for that? But after all these seemingly reasonable kills turning up innocent, that Night 1 wolf trolling is looking a little green and simpsony. I found it strange when he was suddenly leaning more towards Jawneh than kut.
As for other little things, I noticed Zell and Raposa both showed up and voted without really giving any reason on Day 2 before the tiebreaker forced their hands and they had to revote. Fools did something similar on Day 3, but was voting for Jawneh, who was already getting a lot of heat from others. And while I personally don't really find the Jawneh stuff all that sus, I've otherwise felt like Fools Requiem has been pretty damn reasonable all game. Not much I couldn't really agree with. He and canadaguy are probably the ones I trust the most at the moment.
A common mafia strat is to not vote for the innocent man on the chopping block to avoid drawing suspicion the next day. Of the living people, when the vote was up between Warp or shortkut, Raposa voted for Ants, Zell voted for Jawneh, Holly voted for God, and FR abstained. The last few people to vote for Jawneh when kut was killed were Zell, Cole, and Raposa.
We've mentioned watching the quiet ones a handful of times. A few have mentioned that they think the wolves are Cole and a couple quiets, and I'm starting to get the same vibe myself. Raposa has been among the lot to make few, short posts. Holly kind of similar. I have no idea what to make of God because he hasn't said much and now he's going through some shit. I feel like it's 50/50. Zell I'm unsure of. Not super talkative but not silent. Was also in the Day 1 Kill Gang if memory serves me right. Would probably put them a few down from the top of my list.
Ants is another I've seen a good bit of suspicion towards here and there but haven't really felt threatened by myself. I could see him being a wolf, but I'm leaning more townie on him at the moment.
I work second shift so unless I spend my whole break reading through whatever comes next and try to slap together a quick post, I probably won't be able to show up twice in one day during weekdays. Just a heads up. So while I would prefer to vote for Raposa or Cole, in an effort to prevent what I assume will turn into a Jawneh lynch day, I'll do Zell today as well.
I gotta be honest. I really do not think Jawneh is suspicious at all. Never really have. The leading reason for most of the game seems to be just because he was talking a lot. But most of that talking was antagonizing Warp. And I don't really blame him for that because Warp was saying a lot of weird shit in general, and was part of the Day 1 Kill Gang along with shortkut. The reasonings Jawneh has given has been pretty sound to me. Only somewhat interesting thing of note was the little "pulling Cole down with him" debate imo.
On the subject of Cole I am conflicted. This is the first game I've played with him where I haven't really thought he was all that suspicious. Which, in an assbackwards way, makes me way more suspicious of him suddenly. He's good at talking and he's good at making himself look good. But up until recently he's made a lot of sense to me as well. It's stupid to insist on voting someone out on day 1. After all, why shouldn't we go after kut and Warp for that? But after all these seemingly reasonable kills turning up innocent, that Night 1 wolf trolling is looking a little green and simpsony. I found it strange when he was suddenly leaning more towards Jawneh than kut.
As for other little things, I noticed Zell and Raposa both showed up and voted without really giving any reason on Day 2 before the tiebreaker forced their hands and they had to revote. Fools did something similar on Day 3, but was voting for Jawneh, who was already getting a lot of heat from others. And while I personally don't really find the Jawneh stuff all that sus, I've otherwise felt like Fools Requiem has been pretty damn reasonable all game. Not much I couldn't really agree with. He and canadaguy are probably the ones I trust the most at the moment.
A common mafia strat is to not vote for the innocent man on the chopping block to avoid drawing suspicion the next day. Of the living people, when the vote was up between Warp or shortkut, Raposa voted for Ants, Zell voted for Jawneh, Holly voted for God, and FR abstained. The last few people to vote for Jawneh when kut was killed were Zell, Cole, and Raposa.
We've mentioned watching the quiet ones a handful of times. A few have mentioned that they think the wolves are Cole and a couple quiets, and I'm starting to get the same vibe myself. Raposa has been among the lot to make few, short posts. Holly kind of similar. I have no idea what to make of God because he hasn't said much and now he's going through some shit. I feel like it's 50/50. Zell I'm unsure of. Not super talkative but not silent. Was also in the Day 1 Kill Gang if memory serves me right. Would probably put them a few down from the top of my list.
Ants is another I've seen a good bit of suspicion towards here and there but haven't really felt threatened by myself. I could see him being a wolf, but I'm leaning more townie on him at the moment.
I work second shift so unless I spend my whole break reading through whatever comes next and try to slap together a quick post, I probably won't be able to show up twice in one day during weekdays. Just a heads up. So while I would prefer to vote for Raposa or Cole, in an effort to prevent what I assume will turn into a Jawneh lynch day, I'll do Zell today as well.
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I could be persuaded to change my vote to Zell, he has been on my short list of suspects since day 2 after all, but my confidence is shaken since shortkuts death. And I’m also suspicious that yet another bandwagon seems to be forming to protect Jawneh again. It’s like my brain and my gut are at war with each other. So I’ll have to think on in a bit today before I decide if I’m going to change my vote or keep it the way it is.
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Raposa has been suspciously quiet for a good chunk of this game despite being the very first person to comment in the entire game. I don't know if it's because of IRL stuff or because they're trying to keep a low profile and avoid being sussed.
Holly's God vote seems a little off to me.
I haven't trusted Zell or Cole since the day one.
Like stated previously, Jawneh seems like a distraction.
I don't know how I feel about Ants as he's not been too argumentative nor has he been invisible. Same with canadaguy.
Would a wolf take the time to read through 26 pages of posts to try to figure out who to vote for? I'm leaning towards unlikely. So The Flame seems likely to be a townie.
Since all of the wolves are still alive, it's still possible that God is a wolf just hiding out, but because they don't comment often even before yesterday, it's hard to know where they stand.
Holly's God vote seems a little off to me.
I haven't trusted Zell or Cole since the day one.
Like stated previously, Jawneh seems like a distraction.
I don't know how I feel about Ants as he's not been too argumentative nor has he been invisible. Same with canadaguy.
Would a wolf take the time to read through 26 pages of posts to try to figure out who to vote for? I'm leaning towards unlikely. So The Flame seems likely to be a townie.
Since all of the wolves are still alive, it's still possible that God is a wolf just hiding out, but because they don't comment often even before yesterday, it's hard to know where they stand.
Keeping a low profile is a strategy that works well both as townie and wolf. People that make a lot of noise attract attention from both sides.
Likewise being too quiet as either role can land eyes on you.
That's what makes a game of wolf without more roles enjoyable, you can find meaning for your suspicions of somebody no matter how they play, but the fun is in seeing who is actually innocent or not.
So you have people who analyze relentlessly and share that in thread, people who analyze and keep it to themselves, people who just roll with it, and people who are only in it to bandwagon a vote when it gets formed. Right now, with this post I'm painting a target on my back, and for me what will be enjoyable is seeing whether or not the people I suspect are wolves take that bait and jump at me, or if I've gone too strong and end up raising the suspicions of the whole town. But either way it goes, it's fun.
As for today's vote, it does seem like there's been something of a concentrated effort to swing votes away from Jawneh. Either he's the face of the wolves, and theyre trying to save him, or they notice that he keeps getting votes for whatever reason and pick another townie to try and off knowing that people will think that.
This is what I mean about analyzing posts can go both ways, you can find a reason for either. But I'll take a stab at it and lock in Jawneh as my vote.
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And with that, I'm voting Cole.
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current tally
Jawneh: 3 (Ants!, Raposa, Zell 17)
Zell 17: 3 (canadaguy, The Flame, Jawneh)
God.: 1 (Holly)
Cole: 1 (Fool's Requiem)
Abstain: 1 (God.)
Yet to vote: 1 (@Cole)
and yes, God. told me he'd be sitting out this day phase but return for the next, so i'm counting that as an abstention vote
twelve hours remain
Jawneh: 3 (Ants!, Raposa, Zell 17)
Zell 17: 3 (canadaguy, The Flame, Jawneh)
God.: 1 (Holly)
Cole: 1 (Fool's Requiem)
Abstain: 1 (God.)
Yet to vote: 1 (@Cole)
and yes, God. told me he'd be sitting out this day phase but return for the next, so i'm counting that as an abstention vote
twelve hours remain
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I'm glad to hear God. is OK. My vote for him was an attempt at compassion due to his last post. Since there doesn't seem to be any risk of it actually mattering I'll leave it as-is. I don't want to change to Zell or Jawneh and effectively be the deciding vote to bandwagon another townie. We're not doing so hot right now.
well GREAT. my desire to always wait to vote has me as the tie breaker.
I don't love that for myself... especially because I don't think I've been sold on anyone I vote for.
but it does concern me that, as Zell said, Jawneh has skirted by A LOT in this game.
some one pointed out that I suspected shortkut more than jawneh but voted for Jawneh. the truth of the matter is (no disrespect intended to Jawneh) I consider shortkut a more valuable townie, so I didn't wanna risk a vote when j wasn't sure.
the same is kind of true here. Jawneh probably leads my suspicion, but it's like 50/50, and Zell is also capable of the day this game has gone, but is also a valuable townie. (or would be if he weren't complaining about no roles).
I don't like this. I don't like feeling helpless in wolf games.
I think I have to commit, I think twice now I've voted for the person that wasn't lynched, and sometimes that looks suspicious too. I think I need to commit on the person that has squeaked by.
I vote Jawneh.
and may the odds be ever in our favor.
I don't love that for myself... especially because I don't think I've been sold on anyone I vote for.
but it does concern me that, as Zell said, Jawneh has skirted by A LOT in this game.
some one pointed out that I suspected shortkut more than jawneh but voted for Jawneh. the truth of the matter is (no disrespect intended to Jawneh) I consider shortkut a more valuable townie, so I didn't wanna risk a vote when j wasn't sure.
the same is kind of true here. Jawneh probably leads my suspicion, but it's like 50/50, and Zell is also capable of the day this game has gone, but is also a valuable townie. (or would be if he weren't complaining about no roles).
I don't like this. I don't like feeling helpless in wolf games.
I think I have to commit, I think twice now I've voted for the person that wasn't lynched, and sometimes that looks suspicious too. I think I need to commit on the person that has squeaked by.
I vote Jawneh.
and may the odds be ever in our favor.
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If we look at all the votes so far:
Day 1:
Abstain: 8 (Major Isoor, The Flame, Zell 17, God., Cole, Jawneh, canadaguy, Holly)
shortkut: 3 (Raposa, Ants!, Warp)
Ants!: 1 (shortkut)
Fool's Requiem: 1 (VashTheStampede)
Major Isoor: 1 (Fool's Requiem)
Day 2, before tiebreaker:
shortkut: 4 (canadaguy, God., Warp, Ants!)
Warp: 4 (Jawneh, Cole, The Flame, shortkut)
Ants!: 2 (Major Isoor, Raposa)
Jawneh: 1 (Zell 17)
God.: 1 (Holly)
Cole: 1 (VashTheStampede)
Abstain: 1 (Fool’s Requiem)
Day 3:
shortkut: 6 (The Flame, Ants!, canadaguy, Holly, Jawneh, God.)
Jawneh: 5 (shortkut, Fool's Requiem, Zell 17, Cole, Raposa)
No vote: 1 (Major Isoor)
Today:
Jawneh: 4 (Ants!, Raposa, Zell 17, Cole)
Zell 17: 3 (canadaguy, The Flame, Jawneh)
God.: 1 (Holly)
Cole: 1 (Fool's Requiem)
Abstain: 1 (God.)
What can we read about all of this today:
1) kut was destined to die early.
2) Ants was gaining votes, but the Warp mishap and hatred for kut overshadowed it
3) Zell has voted for me since day 2
4) Holly really wants God dead (I can respect that)
5) God is strangely absent the day I might die /joke
6) Other than yesterday, I wasn't really in danger of being lynched. Not including now.
Now, there are other looser inferences to be made from the votes, but I'll let everyone else look at them and find their own meanings in them. Considering the nearly 30 pages of debates, even if a good third of that was Cole v. kut on day1, I don't blame anyone for even going to find the final tallies for each day from the pages and look at them.
Day 1:
Abstain: 8 (Major Isoor, The Flame, Zell 17, God., Cole, Jawneh, canadaguy, Holly)
shortkut: 3 (Raposa, Ants!, Warp)
Ants!: 1 (shortkut)
Fool's Requiem: 1 (VashTheStampede)
Major Isoor: 1 (Fool's Requiem)
Day 2, before tiebreaker:
shortkut: 4 (canadaguy, God., Warp, Ants!)
Warp: 4 (Jawneh, Cole, The Flame, shortkut)
Ants!: 2 (Major Isoor, Raposa)
Jawneh: 1 (Zell 17)
God.: 1 (Holly)
Cole: 1 (VashTheStampede)
Abstain: 1 (Fool’s Requiem)
Day 3:
shortkut: 6 (The Flame, Ants!, canadaguy, Holly, Jawneh, God.)
Jawneh: 5 (shortkut, Fool's Requiem, Zell 17, Cole, Raposa)
No vote: 1 (Major Isoor)
Today:
Jawneh: 4 (Ants!, Raposa, Zell 17, Cole)
Zell 17: 3 (canadaguy, The Flame, Jawneh)
God.: 1 (Holly)
Cole: 1 (Fool's Requiem)
Abstain: 1 (God.)
What can we read about all of this today:
1) kut was destined to die early.
2) Ants was gaining votes, but the Warp mishap and hatred for kut overshadowed it
3) Zell has voted for me since day 2
4) Holly really wants God dead (I can respect that)
5) God is strangely absent the day I might die /joke
6) Other than yesterday, I wasn't really in danger of being lynched. Not including now.
Now, there are other looser inferences to be made from the votes, but I'll let everyone else look at them and find their own meanings in them. Considering the nearly 30 pages of debates, even if a good third of that was Cole v. kut on day1, I don't blame anyone for even going to find the final tallies for each day from the pages and look at them.
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Damn, @Holly, you got beef the Almighty One?
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FF8
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No, it's DBZ.
Last minute changes are always risky. If you switch and vote to lynch a townie, you look like a wolf. If you switch to lynch a wolf, you also look like a wolf trying to pretend your not a wolf. If you make a comment about how changing you vote makes you look like a wolf, you also look like a wolf.
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and with that
Jawneh: 4 (Ants!, Raposa, Zell 17, Cole)
Zell 17: 3 (canadaguy, The Flame, Jawneh)
God.: 1 (Holly)
Cole: 1 (Fool's Requiem)
Abstain: 1 (God.)
"Anyone wanna piss on my ant bites?" Jawneh the watchmaker asked as the villagers who voted for him dragged him to the executioner's platform. "I heard on the internet that it helps." No one knew this "internet" of which he spoke, and if anything, the nonsense he was spouting was further evidence that he was a werewolf angling for a list-minute distraction. Indeed, he was the first of the accused to struggle in any way, although it was unclear if he was struggling against his binds or just itchy.
No matter. He wouldn't be itchy for very much longer. As what remained of Gold Whiskers watched the execution, all eyes were not on Jawneh but on the revolver in the executioner's holster. Would this be the first time it would be used? Would Gold Whiskers finally get the win it so desperately needed? When the axe fell, those questions were answered at last. And the answer was a resounding no, as the lifeless and headless body of Jawneh twitched in regular death style and not in lycanthropic style. Yet again, Gold Whiskers had executed an innocent Townie.
Jawneh: 4 (Ants!, Raposa, Zell 17, Cole)
Zell 17: 3 (canadaguy, The Flame, Jawneh)
God.: 1 (Holly)
Cole: 1 (Fool's Requiem)
Abstain: 1 (God.)
"Anyone wanna piss on my ant bites?" Jawneh the watchmaker asked as the villagers who voted for him dragged him to the executioner's platform. "I heard on the internet that it helps." No one knew this "internet" of which he spoke, and if anything, the nonsense he was spouting was further evidence that he was a werewolf angling for a list-minute distraction. Indeed, he was the first of the accused to struggle in any way, although it was unclear if he was struggling against his binds or just itchy.
No matter. He wouldn't be itchy for very much longer. As what remained of Gold Whiskers watched the execution, all eyes were not on Jawneh but on the revolver in the executioner's holster. Would this be the first time it would be used? Would Gold Whiskers finally get the win it so desperately needed? When the axe fell, those questions were answered at last. And the answer was a resounding no, as the lifeless and headless body of Jawneh twitched in regular death style and not in lycanthropic style. Yet again, Gold Whiskers had executed an innocent Townie.
END OF DAY PHASE 4, BEGINNING OF NIGHT PHASE 4
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One of the most important commodities in life is grain. It is one of the staple crops, necessary to feed the masses. Naturally, the job of miller is one of the most important in any town. Holly held that job and she held it well, but everyone knew what had happened when she failed to show for the morning headcount. Her house showed signs of a struggle but no body. It was only when the citizens checked the grain silo that they saw what remained of her.
This was it. If Gold Whiskers didn't successfully execute a wolf...well, let's do the math. After Holly's untimely demise, five civilians remained against a trio of wolves. Enough murders had taken place to at least discern that much information, even if the identity of any of these lupine beasts was frustratingly unclear. If a wolf got executed, there was still hope for what remained of GW. If it was another innocent...and when the wolves make their next midnight murder...the numbers of civilians and wolves would be equal. And that would be bad for the innocents.
This was it. If Gold Whiskers didn't successfully execute a wolf...well, let's do the math. After Holly's untimely demise, five civilians remained against a trio of wolves. Enough murders had taken place to at least discern that much information, even if the identity of any of these lupine beasts was frustratingly unclear. If a wolf got executed, there was still hope for what remained of GW. If it was another innocent...and when the wolves make their next midnight murder...the numbers of civilians and wolves would be equal. And that would be bad for the innocents.
END OF NIGHT PHASE 4, BEGINNING OF DAY PHASE 5
you heard it right, if a townie gets executed today, wolves win. if y'all finally manage to bag a wolf, we play on. good luck. you have twenty-four hours.
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I’ve suspected zell since Day 2, and if people are going to take forever to vote again because they’re scared to go first then I’ll just jump in and do it: voting Zell.
I know how careful we need to be because it’s our LAST CHANCE to get this right, so if anyone sheds light on some new information then I’ll use my one allowed vote change.
I know how careful we need to be because it’s our LAST CHANCE to get this right, so if anyone sheds light on some new information then I’ll use my one allowed vote change.
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Not 100% sure if Zell is our best option so I want to wait and see what certain other people have to say on the matter and vote a little later. Since we have to nail a wolf I'm going to make sure I stop in and vote before the day is over even if I go to bed in a few hours without doing so.
As I mentioned yesterday my personal top suspects are Raposa and Cole at the moment, but I'd probably put Zell next. Though I'll admit I'm also less confident in Ants' innocence after yesterday now. My main concern is that if he's a wolf he could be quickly jumping in here to try and get a Zell vote started knowing the townies will immediately hop on the bandwagon. But maybe I'm overthinking it.
As I mentioned yesterday my personal top suspects are Raposa and Cole at the moment, but I'd probably put Zell next. Though I'll admit I'm also less confident in Ants' innocence after yesterday now. My main concern is that if he's a wolf he could be quickly jumping in here to try and get a Zell vote started knowing the townies will immediately hop on the bandwagon. But maybe I'm overthinking it.
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Well I mean, like I said, I’m completely willing to change my vote if there’s a good reason for it. I just don’t want to do like the previous day phase where the game had no activity for twenty hours because everyone was waiting for someone else to vote first.
If I have to stick my neck out a tiny bit to keep the game flowing, so be it
If I have to stick my neck out a tiny bit to keep the game flowing, so be it
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Hi everybody, I'm back in town/with internet access. @Cole @Holly @Fire Queen I appreciate y'all and your compassion more than you know. <3
I'm working on catching up in-between meetings. I'll be out around 5ish EST and hopefully I can find something somewhat solid to go on
I'm working on catching up in-between meetings. I'll be out around 5ish EST and hopefully I can find something somewhat solid to go on
Alright boys, its finally really time to make a stand.
On day 1, shortkut, being the stubborn boy that he is, asked me to prove to him that there was information to be gained in this game without real roles, and without random voting. Day 2 came around, and the wolves didn't kill anyone, and like most of us, I was left without much information to glean. Well it's Day something or other now, and there is more information.
I have not been confident about any moves that I've contributed to so far. I have been wrong, and I admit that. And I can even agree (not just for me but for anyone) being repeatedly wrong is always a suspicious feeling. Well its crunch time, if we fail today, we fail. So let's do this.
In a wolf game with no roles, there are really 3 ways to get information on who might be a wolf. The things they say (including if they talk to much), the things they don't say (including if they talk too little), and the patterns they vote with. I'm reading through the thread (well skimming, tbh, I remember most of it), and I'm gonna try and give reads on everyone that remains in the game. Most of the players that have been lynched so far, either by accident or not, have found themselves having done something that looks guilty enough to get them lynched. I don't think theres a TON of information to glean from how people have voted for this fact alone.
But none of the rest of this post is planned, I'm just gonna type and talk until something jumps out at me.
@Fool's Requiem - Suspicion Level: 6/10. He has been active, but not overly so. He mostly seems to chime in with his suspicions, and his reads on the scenario. He (like many people) on day 2 suspected shortkut, Zell, and myself. shortkut is dead, and innocent, but I also agree that the course of events prior to shortkuts death very easily could have been moves he made. Myself and Zell, same thing. Either of us could have potentially pulled this off. Most of Fools post in this thread have either been jokes, or suspicious without much information to explain why he was suspicious. That ITSELF could be suspicious, or he could just be as confused as the rest of us and working on gut reactions (which I can't fault, I do the same.) He's not high on my list, but I could see a scenario in which he was a wolf.
@The Flame - Suspicion Level: 8.2/10. Flame, like Fool, hasn't been INCREDIBLY active in the thread. He has at one point implied he was "bad at the game", he has posted some reasonably insightful things, which makes me wonder if his "I'm bad at the game" comment is a ruse. Sometime around day 2, he implied that shortkut and I were suspicious for talking a lot. Then when confronted by BOTH shortkut and I about how inaccurate that statement was, he immediately walked it back. First he said "I'm inclined to believe the big talkers are suspicious", then immediately "I'm not saying people that talk a lot are wolves!". This kind of flip flopping is common among more inexperienced wolves, they want to stir the pot, and they want to start a suspicion train, but when they're confronted, they immediately walk it back and try to give a different answer. (this is sort of what got shortkut in trouble, day 1 he said "IM VOTING ANTS AND EVERYONE SHOULD VOTE SOMEONE TODAY", then later "I'm not saying everyone should vote, I'm just a man of my word" and then again "no, we definitely need to vote, day 1 abstaining is dumb." The Flame went less extreme with it, but his position DID flip flop a little bit. In the vote off between Warp and shortkut, he did something similar to Vash, wherein he "voted to give shortkut the chance to save himself" which... again is suspicious. We know shortkut was a civilian, but still, why would Flame even give shortkut the option to save himself, he, like Vash, claimed both shortkut and Warp were at the top of his list. So why save one over the other? Why not let cards fall where they may? Since then he has become even less active (he admits to his work week beginning, and as I've said previously, its a lot harder to use activity as a means to deduce suspicion because we're all adults now, I've been less active at times than I used to be as well), but its hard to still not feel like after being effectively caught out twice, he used the work week as a way to reduce his activity. Interesting...
@Raposa - Suspicion Level: 4.5/10. Raposa is a veteran, I do remember his names in past Wolf games, maybe not every one, but he was there. He has been fairly low activity this game (again, not necessarily a metric), but a lot of his posts have been sort of, one off jokes or one liners or non sequiturs. That COULD be a sign of a "quiet wolf" just going about his day, or it could be a sign of someone with no confidence in the direction of the game, but wants to still participate. He made one post where he talks about being quiet, and how it can go either way, and also seems to (like me) enjoy the thrill of a game without roles requiring you to use posts (few or many) to decipher who it could be. A lot of his votes come without explanation, but again, it HAS been that kind of game...
@Cole - Suspicion Level: X/10. I'm not going to give my own suspicion level, but I will absolutely be open about the things I've done, and let people decide for themselves. A lot of the moves that have happened in this thread COULD be me. I forget who said it, but someone pointed out that "Cole always comes with a certain level of suspicion", and I accept that. In fact I welcome that. Whether I am wolf, or townie, my aim is always to make the game exciting, I do so by being active, by being vocal, by provoking fights, announcing suspicions. Really, what I do in any game, is tell the truth, I might alter that truth if I'm a wolf, or enhance that truth if I'm a townie, but its always the truth. I *am* capable of doing the things that have been done, and anyone in here would be right to suspect me. I stand by my argument with shortkut on day 1, unless someone were to accidentally reveal something incredibly stupid on day 1, I will *always* vote to abstain. Even if a host says we cant, I'll just take the inactivity hit by not voting. It's not worth it. Moving forward through the game, I have remained suspicious of the same players. Similar to what people said about me, shortkut, Zell, Vash and canadaguy will ALWAYS be on my suspicions left, just because I know they know the game, I know they are smart, and I know they are capable of fooling anyone/everyone. I was wrong about shortkut (but he did kind of set himself up to be lynched), and I was wrong about Vash (and he made himself a target for lynching by his actions the day before he died.) Zell and canadaguy so far undetermined. I've been open about my activity, there are times (like now) where I can sit at my computer for an extended period of time and work up a post like this. And there are other times I'll disappear all night without even being able to check GWF on my phone. I fault no one for suspecting me. I always act suspicious, it's the fun of th e game for me. I am often and have often been a night 1 kill for wolves. Me acting suspicious, even as a civi, mean sometimes th e wolves will keep me around to use towards the end of the game to divert suspicion, my hope being that by that point in any game, I've already figured out who they are. I can not, as of this moment, claim to have certainty on anyone.
@Zell 17 - Suspicion Level: 7.5/10. Zell is an anomaly. ONCE AGAIN I say, activity isn't a true measure, and I know first hand that he was out of town for several days in a row during the early days of this game. But still, his activity has been sparse. He is 100% capable of every single move the wolves have made in this game. And moreover, his insistence that a game is entirely luck due to the lack of additional roles is awesome. I can agree that one or two additional roles is fine, but to insist that they are needed is a bit much. Zells a poker player, and he prefers math over psychology in most cases, and the same seems to be true here. He'd prefer the "math" of a detective announcing who he has investigated over the psychology of reading posts. BUT he's a good enough poker player to respect the psychology of the game and those that can use it well. But he's not doing that... he's insisting the "math" is the only way to play this game. This might sound odd, but his insistence to *not* find me guilty for voting for him is... interesting. He ended up not being killed, but it almost seems like what I talked about above, that he wanted to preserve me for later to use my posts against me to get out of a late game snafu. ...or he is truly convinced I'm innocent. The "just vote for me, I'm not a wolf but I wanna end the game" thing is... a thing too. Why is he so eager?
@canadaguy - Suspicion Level: 7.9/10. canadaguy... when I was preparing this post, and before I started reading through this thread, I expected Zell and canadaguy to be at the top of my list. (For those curious, I look through their posts, I write the paragraph, and then I edit it in my suspicion level. I only put it first for those too lazy to read the entire post). cg spent the early days heavily siding with me. and since I know for a fact he and I are not wolves together, he can't possibly trust my suspicions, unless he's using them, so I did find it odd that he'd be arguing along side of me so adamantly. I can't for certain say that any of his votes or suspicions make him guilty, because I have shared many of them, but by the same token, if I've been wrong about them, so has he.
@Ants! - Suspicon Level: 7.1/10. He's been on and off my suspicion level for a while. The two biggest things that strike me are his activity (I know, I know), but its that he has been active, but that he seems to come into the thread with a plan already made. Like he already knows what he's going to post before he posts it. And second, he's been on shortkut the longest and heaviest of anyone. It could be just retaliation from day 1, or it could be more than that. But since we know shortkut is a civi, it seems strange to me. there have been a lot of "well Ill change my vote if people want..." or "if something comes up I'll change my vote." Normally I'd say a willingness to change a vote is suspicious, why vote if you're not sure. but it also could be that he worries he might not be able to check later, and wants to at least have a vote on record. A lot of his posts have been short and to the point, often just including a vote or suspicion and that's it.
@God. - Suspicion Level: 2/10. Maybe its me getting soft in my old age, but with whatever he has going on IRL right now, I feel like his wanting to stay in the game IS a means of escape, and not a desire to "continue to play wolf". He obviously hasnt posted a ton, with good reason, but there's just... no real information to go off on him. On that reason alone I can't have him high on my list.
CONCLUSION
I've surprised myself. Before reading through the thread, I was sure I'd fall on one of the bigger remaining names, Zell or canadaguy, but after reading the posts, and beginning analysis, I feel like I'm falling on Flame here. As we've all discussed, theres a few ways to go about being a wolf. LOUD and boisterous, drawing so much attention to yourself that people get confused, or quiet and reserved so no one pays attention to you.
Flame seems to be stuck in the middle, which in and of itself is suspicious from someone I know has played before. Zell and canadaguy could very well be in on it with them, maybe this was a concentrated effort by all three of them to create mass confusion, but Zell and canadaguy have seemingly viable explanations for all of their actions (a lot of which I agree with.) Flame meanwhile, seems all over the place, and few things read as suspicious more than flying by the seat of your pants.
I do believe I will be voting for Flame, but as I'm not a huge fan of changing my vote, I will be reserving a little bit longer. But I am heavily leaning in that direction.
On day 1, shortkut, being the stubborn boy that he is, asked me to prove to him that there was information to be gained in this game without real roles, and without random voting. Day 2 came around, and the wolves didn't kill anyone, and like most of us, I was left without much information to glean. Well it's Day something or other now, and there is more information.
I have not been confident about any moves that I've contributed to so far. I have been wrong, and I admit that. And I can even agree (not just for me but for anyone) being repeatedly wrong is always a suspicious feeling. Well its crunch time, if we fail today, we fail. So let's do this.
In a wolf game with no roles, there are really 3 ways to get information on who might be a wolf. The things they say (including if they talk to much), the things they don't say (including if they talk too little), and the patterns they vote with. I'm reading through the thread (well skimming, tbh, I remember most of it), and I'm gonna try and give reads on everyone that remains in the game. Most of the players that have been lynched so far, either by accident or not, have found themselves having done something that looks guilty enough to get them lynched. I don't think theres a TON of information to glean from how people have voted for this fact alone.
But none of the rest of this post is planned, I'm just gonna type and talk until something jumps out at me.
@Fool's Requiem - Suspicion Level: 6/10. He has been active, but not overly so. He mostly seems to chime in with his suspicions, and his reads on the scenario. He (like many people) on day 2 suspected shortkut, Zell, and myself. shortkut is dead, and innocent, but I also agree that the course of events prior to shortkuts death very easily could have been moves he made. Myself and Zell, same thing. Either of us could have potentially pulled this off. Most of Fools post in this thread have either been jokes, or suspicious without much information to explain why he was suspicious. That ITSELF could be suspicious, or he could just be as confused as the rest of us and working on gut reactions (which I can't fault, I do the same.) He's not high on my list, but I could see a scenario in which he was a wolf.
@The Flame - Suspicion Level: 8.2/10. Flame, like Fool, hasn't been INCREDIBLY active in the thread. He has at one point implied he was "bad at the game", he has posted some reasonably insightful things, which makes me wonder if his "I'm bad at the game" comment is a ruse. Sometime around day 2, he implied that shortkut and I were suspicious for talking a lot. Then when confronted by BOTH shortkut and I about how inaccurate that statement was, he immediately walked it back. First he said "I'm inclined to believe the big talkers are suspicious", then immediately "I'm not saying people that talk a lot are wolves!". This kind of flip flopping is common among more inexperienced wolves, they want to stir the pot, and they want to start a suspicion train, but when they're confronted, they immediately walk it back and try to give a different answer. (this is sort of what got shortkut in trouble, day 1 he said "IM VOTING ANTS AND EVERYONE SHOULD VOTE SOMEONE TODAY", then later "I'm not saying everyone should vote, I'm just a man of my word" and then again "no, we definitely need to vote, day 1 abstaining is dumb." The Flame went less extreme with it, but his position DID flip flop a little bit. In the vote off between Warp and shortkut, he did something similar to Vash, wherein he "voted to give shortkut the chance to save himself" which... again is suspicious. We know shortkut was a civilian, but still, why would Flame even give shortkut the option to save himself, he, like Vash, claimed both shortkut and Warp were at the top of his list. So why save one over the other? Why not let cards fall where they may? Since then he has become even less active (he admits to his work week beginning, and as I've said previously, its a lot harder to use activity as a means to deduce suspicion because we're all adults now, I've been less active at times than I used to be as well), but its hard to still not feel like after being effectively caught out twice, he used the work week as a way to reduce his activity. Interesting...
@Raposa - Suspicion Level: 4.5/10. Raposa is a veteran, I do remember his names in past Wolf games, maybe not every one, but he was there. He has been fairly low activity this game (again, not necessarily a metric), but a lot of his posts have been sort of, one off jokes or one liners or non sequiturs. That COULD be a sign of a "quiet wolf" just going about his day, or it could be a sign of someone with no confidence in the direction of the game, but wants to still participate. He made one post where he talks about being quiet, and how it can go either way, and also seems to (like me) enjoy the thrill of a game without roles requiring you to use posts (few or many) to decipher who it could be. A lot of his votes come without explanation, but again, it HAS been that kind of game...
@Cole - Suspicion Level: X/10. I'm not going to give my own suspicion level, but I will absolutely be open about the things I've done, and let people decide for themselves. A lot of the moves that have happened in this thread COULD be me. I forget who said it, but someone pointed out that "Cole always comes with a certain level of suspicion", and I accept that. In fact I welcome that. Whether I am wolf, or townie, my aim is always to make the game exciting, I do so by being active, by being vocal, by provoking fights, announcing suspicions. Really, what I do in any game, is tell the truth, I might alter that truth if I'm a wolf, or enhance that truth if I'm a townie, but its always the truth. I *am* capable of doing the things that have been done, and anyone in here would be right to suspect me. I stand by my argument with shortkut on day 1, unless someone were to accidentally reveal something incredibly stupid on day 1, I will *always* vote to abstain. Even if a host says we cant, I'll just take the inactivity hit by not voting. It's not worth it. Moving forward through the game, I have remained suspicious of the same players. Similar to what people said about me, shortkut, Zell, Vash and canadaguy will ALWAYS be on my suspicions left, just because I know they know the game, I know they are smart, and I know they are capable of fooling anyone/everyone. I was wrong about shortkut (but he did kind of set himself up to be lynched), and I was wrong about Vash (and he made himself a target for lynching by his actions the day before he died.) Zell and canadaguy so far undetermined. I've been open about my activity, there are times (like now) where I can sit at my computer for an extended period of time and work up a post like this. And there are other times I'll disappear all night without even being able to check GWF on my phone. I fault no one for suspecting me. I always act suspicious, it's the fun of th e game for me. I am often and have often been a night 1 kill for wolves. Me acting suspicious, even as a civi, mean sometimes th e wolves will keep me around to use towards the end of the game to divert suspicion, my hope being that by that point in any game, I've already figured out who they are. I can not, as of this moment, claim to have certainty on anyone.
@Zell 17 - Suspicion Level: 7.5/10. Zell is an anomaly. ONCE AGAIN I say, activity isn't a true measure, and I know first hand that he was out of town for several days in a row during the early days of this game. But still, his activity has been sparse. He is 100% capable of every single move the wolves have made in this game. And moreover, his insistence that a game is entirely luck due to the lack of additional roles is awesome. I can agree that one or two additional roles is fine, but to insist that they are needed is a bit much. Zells a poker player, and he prefers math over psychology in most cases, and the same seems to be true here. He'd prefer the "math" of a detective announcing who he has investigated over the psychology of reading posts. BUT he's a good enough poker player to respect the psychology of the game and those that can use it well. But he's not doing that... he's insisting the "math" is the only way to play this game. This might sound odd, but his insistence to *not* find me guilty for voting for him is... interesting. He ended up not being killed, but it almost seems like what I talked about above, that he wanted to preserve me for later to use my posts against me to get out of a late game snafu. ...or he is truly convinced I'm innocent. The "just vote for me, I'm not a wolf but I wanna end the game" thing is... a thing too. Why is he so eager?
@canadaguy - Suspicion Level: 7.9/10. canadaguy... when I was preparing this post, and before I started reading through this thread, I expected Zell and canadaguy to be at the top of my list. (For those curious, I look through their posts, I write the paragraph, and then I edit it in my suspicion level. I only put it first for those too lazy to read the entire post). cg spent the early days heavily siding with me. and since I know for a fact he and I are not wolves together, he can't possibly trust my suspicions, unless he's using them, so I did find it odd that he'd be arguing along side of me so adamantly. I can't for certain say that any of his votes or suspicions make him guilty, because I have shared many of them, but by the same token, if I've been wrong about them, so has he.
@Ants! - Suspicon Level: 7.1/10. He's been on and off my suspicion level for a while. The two biggest things that strike me are his activity (I know, I know), but its that he has been active, but that he seems to come into the thread with a plan already made. Like he already knows what he's going to post before he posts it. And second, he's been on shortkut the longest and heaviest of anyone. It could be just retaliation from day 1, or it could be more than that. But since we know shortkut is a civi, it seems strange to me. there have been a lot of "well Ill change my vote if people want..." or "if something comes up I'll change my vote." Normally I'd say a willingness to change a vote is suspicious, why vote if you're not sure. but it also could be that he worries he might not be able to check later, and wants to at least have a vote on record. A lot of his posts have been short and to the point, often just including a vote or suspicion and that's it.
@God. - Suspicion Level: 2/10. Maybe its me getting soft in my old age, but with whatever he has going on IRL right now, I feel like his wanting to stay in the game IS a means of escape, and not a desire to "continue to play wolf". He obviously hasnt posted a ton, with good reason, but there's just... no real information to go off on him. On that reason alone I can't have him high on my list.
CONCLUSION
I've surprised myself. Before reading through the thread, I was sure I'd fall on one of the bigger remaining names, Zell or canadaguy, but after reading the posts, and beginning analysis, I feel like I'm falling on Flame here. As we've all discussed, theres a few ways to go about being a wolf. LOUD and boisterous, drawing so much attention to yourself that people get confused, or quiet and reserved so no one pays attention to you.
Flame seems to be stuck in the middle, which in and of itself is suspicious from someone I know has played before. Zell and canadaguy could very well be in on it with them, maybe this was a concentrated effort by all three of them to create mass confusion, but Zell and canadaguy have seemingly viable explanations for all of their actions (a lot of which I agree with.) Flame meanwhile, seems all over the place, and few things read as suspicious more than flying by the seat of your pants.
I do believe I will be voting for Flame, but as I'm not a huge fan of changing my vote, I will be reserving a little bit longer. But I am heavily leaning in that direction.