U.S.A. Fmr. President Trump shot at during campaign event in Butler, PA

[VashTheStampede]

We need a video game Criterion Closet

 

[Ants!]

I hear it's a great asymmetric couch co-op multiplayer game

They should call it cookie and chill.

 

[VashTheStampede]

REVEALED: Trump campaign secret data on gunman’s family

The family of Trump’s would-be assassin Thomas Crooks was among millions of voters profiled by Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign

www.channel4.com

Man I'd love to know more about this database and how they figured that Crooks' parents would be gun owners and pro-Trump. And what they would want that specific information for.

Also I'd like to know more about the explosive devices found at his car and home.

Too bad it's apparently only foreign media not owned by billionaires that seem to want to do their job.

 

[MC74]

Hey hey hey hey hey...you hitting on my woman?!

The real plan is to show up with Seb, then run off while leaving Smackster with Seb.

 

[Ants!]

Biden made a great point in that interview and touched on what I had already been thinking in the last few days. I'd love for the rhetoric to be toned way down, but how do you reconcile that except to just not mention all of the reasons why Trump is a legit threat to our democracy? This is not normal disagreement and politics, it goes way outside of that. It's not just 4 more years of an awful president, it's a legit and valid fear that this could be the LAST presidential election.

 

[Quagmire]

Biden made a great point in that interview and touched on what I had already been thinking in the last few days. I'd love for the rhetoric to be toned way down, but how do you reconcile that except to just not mention all of the reasons why Trump is a legit threat to our democracy? This is not normal disagreement and politics, it goes way outside of that. It's not just 4 more years of an awful president, it's a legit and valid fear that this could be the LAST presidential election.

This is what republicans try to do, they try to down play over unity, or claim "both sides are the same" when in fact for all the faults of the democratic party, they are no where near the levels of awful that the GOP is

 

[GwJumpman]

Biden made a great point in that interview and touched on what I had already been thinking in the last few days. I'd love for the rhetoric to be toned way down, but how do you reconcile that except to just not mention all of the reasons why Trump is a legit threat to our democracy? This is not normal disagreement and politics, it goes way outside of that. It's not just 4 more years of an awful president, it's a legit and valid fear that this could be the LAST presidential election.

Unfortunately none of it matters when Biden can barely get the sentence out. The biggest problem I have right now with everything that's going on is that Biden is in no state to actually fight against what the right is doing. He doesn't have the speed to refute or confidently argue against anything Trump says, constantly is misspeaking, and honestly he's being very weird about the entire election with his whole aggressive whispering thing.

I watch some youtubers like Vaush (although I wouldn't say I agree with him and others like him entirely but I do agree with their sentiment often) and his criticism to Biden commenting on how many times Trump lied was "WHY DIDN'T YOU CALL HIM OUT IN THE DEBATE???" and he's totally right. You look weak as shit letting your opponent walk all over you with lies and you're not even present enough to call it out at the time; he had to wait until after it was over, days later, before he was able to comment on it.

 

[Ants!]

To be fair, he looked like he really wasn't even CAPABLE of doing it that night

 

[GwJumpman]

Yeah it honestly sucks so bad. If you asked me a month ago who was gonna win this election I would've said Biden even though he looks weak. But after the debate and the failed assassination I think there's no way in hell Biden can win this anymore unless something ELSE comes out against Trump that is so bad that even he loses some of his supporters.

Without Biden getting replaced I think it's totally over now and it's really going to be Biden's fault (and the fault of those around him who are encouraging him to stay in the race) for not doing what's right for the country vs what's right for his vision of his legacy.

 

[Ben]

REVEALED: Trump campaign secret data on gunman’s family

The family of Trump’s would-be assassin Thomas Crooks was among millions of voters profiled by Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign

www.channel4.com

Man I'd love to know more about this database and how they figured that Crooks' parents would be gun owners and pro-Trump. And what they would want that specific information for.

Also I'd like to know more about the explosive devices found at his car and home.

Too bad it's apparently only foreign media not owned by billionaires that seem to want to do their job.

This is pretty whack. Even on just the premise of profiling people to target ads at them, that doesn't feel like above-board politics to me.

The whole possible conspiracy of them knowing his dad was likely among the top 20 most likely to have guns in the state is... Weirder.

 

[dimmerwit]

We now have several polls that only sampled after the shooting and they show no difference to before.

The whole possible conspiracy of them knowing his dad was likely among the top 20 most likely to have guns in the state is... Weirder.

Top 20 in Bethel Park, not the whole state.

 

[Ben]

Top 20 in Bethel Park, not the whole state.

You're right, me said words bad.

Correlation is not causation and all that, but... Still fucking weird.

 

[VashTheStampede]

But after the debate and the failed assassination I think there's no way in hell Biden can win this anymore unless something ELSE comes out against Trump that is so bad that even he loses some of his supporters.

Without Biden getting replaced I think it's totally over now and it's really going to be Biden's fault (and the fault of those around him who are encouraging him to stay in the race) for not doing what's right for the country vs what's right for his vision of his legacy.

The sadly ironic thing is that those around him claim to be concerned for his legacy when it could cement his legacy as a great American if he were to step aside.

To selflessly give up power is some George Washington shit.

 

[VashTheStampede]

This is what republicans try to do, they try to down play over unity, or claim "both sides are the same" when in fact for all the faults of the democratic party, they are no where near the levels of awful that the GOP is

 

[Ants!]

Yeah it honestly sucks so bad. If you asked me a month ago who was gonna win this election I would've said Biden even though he looks weak. But after the debate and the failed assassination I think there's no way in hell Biden can win this anymore unless something ELSE comes out against Trump that is so bad that even he loses some of his supporters.

Without Biden getting replaced I think it's totally over now and it's really going to be Biden's fault (and the fault of those around him who are encouraging him to stay in the race) for not doing what's right for the country vs what's right for his vision of his legacy.

Honestly I don't think it's that bad (yet). Four months is a long time in the media and political landscape and people have short memories. Like I said after the debate, the next thing in the news cycle is going to take their attention away onto something else. There's also the convention next month, and as has been pointed out the polls haven't really been affected much by either of those two big things. A lot can happen.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Honestly I don't think it's that bad (yet). Four months is a long time in the media and political landscape and people have short memories.

Case in point:

 

[Ants!]

I remember 538 saying Trump has a 1/3 chance of winning back then. And people were like "Clinton has this thing in the bag!" And I'm screaming NO YOU DOPES! ONE THIRD IS NOT INSIGNIFICANT.

 

[VashTheStampede]

I remember 538 saying Trump has a 1/3 chance of winning back then. And people were like "Clinton has this thing in the bag!" And I'm screaming NO YOU DOPES! ONE THIRD IS NOT INSIGNIFICANT.

You could tell who had and hadn't played XCOM before that day.

 

[Quagmire]

Case in point:

View attachment 18251

One difference now, people were embarrassed to say they were going to vote for Trump, that is no longer the case for most

 

[Smacktard]

Case in point:

View attachment 18251

I wonder how different the political climate would be if that 15% never happened

 

[Fool's Requiem]

TBF, the majority did vote for Clinton. Gerrymandering and the electoral college fucked us.

 

[Fool's Requiem]

I wonder how different the political climate would be if that 15% never happened

better

 

[Quagmire]

TBF, the majority did vote for Clinton. Gerrymandering and the electoral college fucked us.

Without the EC, I would have voted for Hillary. I knew a woman wasnt going to win Kentucky, so I voted for Johnson to try and get 3rd party candidates more votes.

I did vote for Biden in 2020 and will in 2024, anything to hurt Trump's precious little ego

 

[Quagmire]

better

That is a huge understatement, the SCOTUS and courts wouldnt be as fucked as they are

 

[Smacktard]

All this talk of voting is fine, but I think it's about time we moved on to a vote that REALLY mattered.

@VashTheStampede -- next round of the great video game draft WHEN

 

[Smacktard]

That is a huge understatement, the SCOTUS and courts wouldnt be as fucked as they are

It's truly amazing how much damage one presidential term can do

 

[VashTheStampede]

All this talk of voting is fine, but I think it's about time we moved on to a vote that REALLY mattered.

@VashTheStampede -- next round of the great video game draft WHEN

Hmm.

I've got a couple days off coming up this weekend. I'll get it rolling then.

 

[MC74]

Yeah it honestly sucks so bad. If you asked me a month ago who was gonna win this election I would've said Biden even though he looks weak. But after the debate and the failed assassination I think there's no way in hell Biden can win this anymore unless something ELSE comes out against Trump that is so bad that even he loses some of his supporters.

Without Biden getting replaced I think it's totally over now and it's really going to be Biden's fault (and the fault of those around him who are encouraging him to stay in the race) for not doing what's right for the country vs what's right for his vision of his legacy.

Unless Trump by his own dumbassery costs himself the election again, or a fuck up of epic proportions on the GOP's end, I don't see how the Dems can win this anymore. Not even if they replaced Biden.

 

[Smacktard]

Unless Trump by his own dumbassery costs himself the election again, or a fuck up of epic proportions on the GOP's end, I don't see how the Dems can win this anymore. Not even if they replaced Biden.

Polls suggest Trump didn't get an assassination bump. I don't believe it, but I DO think that the Dems do still have a path if they replace Biden. I think that path is very narrow and treacherous with Kamala, but still.

FWIW 538 still has Biden ahead of Trump, but it is nail-bitingly close.

 

[Ants!]

One difference now, people were embarrassed to say they were going to vote for Trump, that is no longer the case for most

I'm embarrassed to say that back then, in 2016 I was of the opinion that 4 years of Trump and 8 years of Hilary would be equally as bad. And HOLY SHIT did that guy prove me wrong...

 

[Ants!]

Also, yall are just as weird as the "hilary has this thing in the bag" people if yall are saying that 50/50 polls mean Biden has no chance.

 

[Smacktard]

Also, yall are just as weird as the "hilary has this thing in the bag" people if yall are saying that 50/50 polls mean Biden has no chance.

It's simple: I don't trust the polls. The Republican vote was underestimated in both 2016 and 2020. Maybe it's bad or lazy analysis, but when polls say it's 50/50, I feel like that tilts Republican.

 

[Ants!]

It's simple: I don't trust the polls. The Republican vote was underestimated in both 2016 and 2020. Maybe it's bad or lazy analysis, but when polls say it's 50/50, I feel like that tilts Republican.

It didn't underestimate republicans, it was a tight race in a few key states and a 1/3 chance overall means still a high probability that it could happen.

That's the other thing too: after 2016 conservatives stopped believing in polls, and in 2020 they were all "yeah yall said he was going to lose last time too! Polls are FAKE NEWS! GO TRUMP!!" Don't be anti-math like those dimwits.

 

[dimmerwit]

The polls absolutely underestimated Trump last time. They were even worse in 2020 than in 2016.

 

[Smacktard]

It didn't underestimate republicans, it was a tight race in a few key states and a 1/3 chance overall means still a high probability that it could happen.

That's the other thing too: after 2016 conservatives stopped believing in polls, and in 2020 they were all "yeah yall said he was going to lose last time too! Polls are FAKE NEWS! GO TRUMP!!" Don't be anti-math like those dimwits.

What I'm saying is that polls showing 50/50 is more likely to be 70/30 in favor of Trump because polls from the past couple of general elections have underestimated Republican turnout. And I'm sorry, but I'm not enthused about a 30% chance of Biden winning. I'd love to be wrong, though.

 

[Ants!]

Polls are only a snapshot of people's opinions at the time they were taken, and it's a fluid thing. People are fickle. Some people even make up their mind or change it in the ballot box itself. That doesn't mean the polls are wrong or underestimated them.

 

[Ants!]

That's a fair point about voter turnout.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Plus polls have less value just because of how society has evolved technologically.

How many of us answer calls from unknown numbers anymore?

 

[Ben]

Plus polls have less value just because of how society has evolved technologically.

How many of us answer calls from unknown numbers anymore?

I don't tend to answer calls from known numbers.

 

[Quagmire]

I don't tend to answer calls from known numbers.

That's why you never answer my calls

 

[Quagmire]

"A guy who makes tracks about cock pushups is held to a higher standard than our politicians? "

A redditor made this comment about Kyle getting dropped from his Agent (and probably the band)

 

[Mark]

"A guy who makes tracks about cock pushups is held to a higher standard than our politicians? "

A redditor made this comment about Kyle getting dropped from his Agent (and probably the band)

I don’t agree on throwing Kyle under the bus.

1. It was clearly a joke.

2. We can make dementia jokes about Biden, something that cannot be helped, but Trump can’t catch a punchline about a bad shot, something that could have been helped if he wasn’t an antagonist?

Both are poor taste, admittedly, but you don’t wake up one day and decide to have dementia… you do wake up one day being a dick to people.

 

[Ants!]

I don't get the context here.

 

[Quagmire]

I don’t agree on throwing Kyle under the bus.

1. It was clearly a joke.

2. We can make dementia jokes about Biden, something that cannot be helped, but Trump can’t catch a punchline about a bad shot, something that could have been helped if he wasn’t an antagonist?

Both are poor taste, admittedly, but you don’t wake up one day and decide to have dementia… you do wake up one day being a dick to people.

Does Biden even have dementia? He from what i understand corrects himself when he makes a name mistake which is something dementia patients don't do

 

[Quagmire]

I don't get the context here.

Kyle blew out a cake on stage and Jack asked what his wish was and Kyle said "next time don't miss"

 

[Mark]

Does Biden even have dementia? He from what i understand corrects himself when he makes a name mistake which is something dementia patients don't do

I can’t confirm it, beyond my own experiences with people that suffered from it. Many, many people speculate it to be true.

Kyle blew out a cake on stage and Jack asked what his wish was and Kyle said "next time don't miss"

Right, and it was a very quick “blink and you’ll miss it” moment, but, as with everything today… all it takes is one person with their camera up at the right (or wrong) time.

 

[Ants!]

Conservatives are so two-faced. As an anecdote, after the debate of the 2020 election my old boss was so offended that Biden called Trump a clown, felt it was petty and unpresidential and all that. So I'm like "what about all the times Trump called him Sleepy Joe?", and the double-standard went right over her head because she just laughed and said "he IS Sleepy Joe!!"

 

[Quagmire]

Conservatives are so two-faced. As an anecdote, after the debate of the 2020 election my old boss was so offended that Biden called Trump a clown, felt it was petty and unpresidential and all that. So I'm like "what about all the times Trump called him Sleepy Joe?", and the double-standard went right over her head because she just laughed and said "he IS Sleepy Joe!!"

If conservatives didn't have double standards, they would have no standards at all.

 

[Mark]

Conservatives are so two-faced. As an anecdote, after the debate of the 2020 election my old boss was so offended that Biden called Trump a clown, felt it was petty and unpresidential and all that. So I'm like "what about all the times Trump called him Sleepy Joe?", and the double-standard went right over her head because she just laughed and said "he IS Sleepy Joe!!"

Yeah, that’s how it works. “It’s true, so it can’t be offensive, but what you’re saying is false because it’s fake news”. Absolutely zero room for discourse when anything you could possibly say is being discredited before they even know what you’re going to say. Had a similar exchange with a former co-worker over a local political issue here… I’ve been hearing crickets since the “wrongly accused” was convicted with overwhelming evidence, but, what are you gonna do? The only thing you can do, eventually enough proof will make it indisputable… if they choose to bury their heads in the sand after that, it’s willful ignorance.

 

[Ancle Suck]

Polls suggest Trump didn't get an assassination bump. I don't believe it, but I DO think that the Dems do still have a path if they replace Biden. I think that path is very narrow and treacherous with Kamala, but still.

FWIW 538 still has Biden ahead of Trump, but it is nail-bitingly close.

538 hasn't updated their models since Silver was fired, and right now they're not putting a lot of weight into the polls (which is usually good at this point in the cycle...maybe not this year) in favor of other fundamentals.

But also, yes. The Dems have a path to replace Biden still. Some senior democrats and fierce Biden allies were trying to push to get the role-call vote sooner to enshrine Biden as the candidate officially, but both Jeffries and Schumer pushed back on that, and now people as high profile as Adam Schiff have publicly said he needs to back down.

The polls absolutely underestimated Trump last time. They were even worse in 2020 than in 2016.

Polls were actually better in 2020 than 2016 in how polls are judged for accuracy: they were closer to the actual percentage for the outcomes than in 2016. Why people think they were worse: there were coin flips within the margin of error and whatnot that went the other way more often than they did in 2016. So they were both more accurate (getting closer to the final results (say 48%-47% instead of 42-51% with an actual outcome of 47%-48%)) and less accurate (percentages were closer, but the winner was wrong) at the same time.

Very technically speaking, the 48-47 that ends up 47-48 is a much more accurate poll than one that goes from 42-51 to that same 47-48, even though the latter predicted the winner.