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Zell Wolf Discussion Thread Game 4

Everyone thinks the dead thread is bustling and alive, meanwhile we're all here like

Come On Reaction GIF by Late Night with Seth Meyers
 
I'm surprised the entire town hasn't just taken out Kelly and vote skipped. What the hell is going on? Are they just trying to narrow down the last wolf because they already know Kelly is alpha?
I think it's because he's a normal wolf now with no powers, so maybe lol the alchemist first who could result in more than one nightly kills (wolf + alchy or wolf + alchy + alchy)
 
The more I think about it the more I think the wolves misplayed the unfortunate situation of Fool’s getting a potion.

Fools should admit nothing to the town, and then Kelly fakes Aura seer and sells Fools hard as evil. Force the priest to kill Fools before the potion can. Then I think Kelly has great credibility as an Aura seer.

If the village also kills shortkut/2nd priest kills shortkut, then Local and Kelly have similar cred. Local would likely check Kelly as unknown. Wolves kill Kat as the only source of verifiable info. Kelly comes out firing hard that Benzine is evil. Now there’s a credibility problem the village needs to sort out. Either they vote Benzine and Kelly has absolutely max cred (and Local would would be killed by villagers) OR they figure out Kelly is fake / likely headhunter (since UNK) and Benzine has max credibility.
 
The more I think about it the more I think the wolves misplayed the unfortunate situation of Fool’s getting a potion.

Fools should admit nothing to the town, and then Kelly fakes Aura seer and sells Fools hard as evil. Force the priest to kill Fools before the potion can. Then I think Kelly has great credibility as an Aura seer.

If the village also kills shortkut/2nd priest kills shortkut, then Local and Kelly have similar cred. Local would likely check Kelly as unknown. Wolves kill Kat as the only source of verifiable info. Kelly comes out firing hard that Benzine is evil. Now there’s a credibility problem the village needs to sort out. Either they vote Benzine and Kelly has absolutely max cred (and Local would would be killed by villagers) OR they figure out Kelly is fake / likely headhunter (since UNK) and Benzine has max credibility.
Wolves not omniscient overlords, confirmed.

But also, Kelly is new, Benzine is only awake when everyone else is asleep, Shortkut died super early, and there's Fool :D

Not super well positioned to create a super refined strategy days in advance.
 
Wolves not omniscient overlords, confirmed.

But also, Kelly is new, Benzine is only awake when everyone else is asleep, Shortkut died super early, and there's Fool :D

Not super well positioned to create a super refined strategy days in advance.
Nah they don’t have to come up with it in advance. They knew Fools has a potion and would die. Just need to take advantage of that best they can. Instead of just letting Fools die, use that death to get some credibility.
 
Let's peek forward a bit...

9 villagers.

Tubby dies.

8 villagers. Vash jailkills Kelly. 7 villagers

RK uses 2nd red on Kat and probably a full black on Vash. There is no protection since Tubby is dead and FQ lost her trap on Local. 5 villagers remain.

Last wolf kills someone else (4 villagers left) or DOESN'T kill someone else (5 villagers left).

Then what happens in a 3 v 1 v 1?? Or even a 2 v 1 v 1. You might think it's hopeless for the village, but if FQ survives she would have a trap out there. The town can hope to lynch the RK and have the last wolf fail the 50-50 on where Fire Queen's trap is.
 
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