Aussie Dingo Aussie Dingo: Predator vs Prey - Episode 1 (Night 2/Day 2)

[Local Hero]

You're probably right! Still hurts the town. Vote her off.

Genuine question, does it actually hurt the town? If she's innocent, that seems detrimental. If we have suspicions, isn't it better to get that out of the way?

 

[Dean]

 

[TD]

 

[VashTheStampede]

That's Austria

 

[Dean]

So @VashTheStampede how long has your kind existed on earth? Hundreds of millions of years?

 

[Dean]

I should've probably started with this...

If the mighty Wombat offered me protection last night, I thank thee

Anyway, we've got plenty of time left in this phase. I'm not opposed to culling Kat if we've nothing better to go on (perhaps a toilet amirite) but I am hoping we can weed out a true baddie today and take a predator or two out.

 

[TD]

...so our plan is literally just cull someone who hasn't posted.

 

[Local Hero]

@Kat

Just in case she hasn't been tagged yet

 

[Dean]

...so our plan is literally just cull someone who hasn't posted.

I would rather do that than do nothing, but I agree, it doesn't make me feel great.

 

[Zell 17]

Genuine question, does it actually hurt the town? If she's innocent, that seems detrimental. If we have suspicions, isn't it better to get that out of the way?

Do we have any real suspicions, or do we have the vibes that have led to countless mislynches over the previous games?

It's dangerous to let people who won't defend themselves last too long. What happens if it comes down to the end, and we have to guess between her and Tommy Boy who claimed quokka on day 1? The whole object of the game for all 16 players is to establish as much credibility with the town as possible. I'm not trying to take a shot at Kat at all here, she's probably very busy. But if you let people with no credibility last too long you'll become faced with impossible decisions.

 

[A Punched Face]

I should've probably started with this...

If the mighty Wombat offered me protection last night, I thank thee

Anyway, we've got plenty of time left in this phase. I'm not opposed to culling Kat if we've nothing better to go on (perhaps a toilet amirite) but I am hoping we can weed out a true baddie today and take a predator or two out.

Why would you have been the target of both the wombat and the predators? I feel like the obvious choice was Kelly for both.

 

[Dean]

Why would you have been the target of both the wombat and the predators? I feel like the obvious choice was Kelly for both.

I asked the mighty Wombat for protection because of my blatant, flagrant role claiming.

And I'm cowardly and selfish in these games.

 

[Zell 17]

Also it's hour 2 of a 24 hour cycle here. Lynching her is not set in stone. Trying to get some info out of her is.

 

[TD]

Why would you have been the target of both the wombat and the predators? I feel like the obvious choice was Kelly for both.

This is an interesting point.

Yes, Kelly can kill, but he can also just as easily die himself.

Perhaps with him voting me - they thought he'd target me so they left him around?

 

[A Punched Face]

Yes, Kelly can kill, but he can also just as easily die himself.

But he could also be the best defense against the Dingo. Already nailed one solo, might be using some of that Saudi oil money to scout out the other.

 

[Dean]

Kat hasn't posted at all, but she isn't the only player who hasn't tried engaging. But day 1 is usually a crapshoot, so I get it if some players would rather not get caught up in memes and shit posts.

Day 2 is another story. There is some actual information now, but not a lot. I'm hoping players like Tommy Boy, Benzine, Joseph Snapple, and so on will be a bit more active today.

 

[TD]

But he could also be the best defense against the Dingo. Already nailed one solo, might be using some of that Saudi oil money to scout out the other.

This is also true.

Although both the predators and prey benefit from the Dingo being out of the picture, so it could be another reason he wasn't targeted.

 

[Zell 17]

If I was an evil I'd 100% try to take out Kelly if I thought he was unprotected.

 

[Fool's Requiem]

Guys, I seered Kelly and he came up red. I think he killed someone yesterday.

Voting Smacktard.

 

[TD]

Day 2 is another story. There is some actual information now, but not a lot. I'm hoping players like Tommy Boy, Benzine, Joseph Snapple, and so on will be a bit more active today.

All 3 of them hinted at a role.
Not for me to say which.

 

[Local Hero]

Guys, I seered Kelly and he came up red. I think he killed someone yesterday.

Voting Smacktard.

 

[Zell 17]

All 3 of them hinted at a role.
Not for me to say which.

The problem I have with hints is it gives people (evils) plausible deniability to go back and say "No, that's not what I meant!" when their original claim is proven impossible. Tommy gave a claim.

I'm trying to nail down two additional people today. Who are the random roles.

 

[Dean]

The problem I have with hints is it gives people (evils) plausible deniability to go back and say "No, that's not what I meant!" when their original claim is proven impossible. Tommy gave a claim.

I'm trying to nail down two additional people today. Who are the random roles.

I think Snapple claimed Possum but I could be wrong. "Simple cute pest control" or whatever.

 

[Zell 17]

I think Snapple claimed Possum but I could be wrong. "Simple cute pest control" or whatever.

Yeah I saw that. And are you a platypus?

BTW if you (or anyone else) is a Kookaburra, please do NOT tag anyone. If you accidentally reveal the Joey it's game over.

 

[A Punched Face]

Zell I forgot to give you the First Blood Badge yesterday. You have it now.

 

[TD]

The problem I have with hints is it gives people (evils) plausible deniability to go back and say "No, that's not what I meant!" when their original claim is proven impossible. Tommy gave a claim.

I'm trying to nail down two additional people today. Who are the random roles.

Which is fine but again, not everyone will explicitly role claim. History also shows that most of those hints from those trying to be subtle are accurate if they are actually a member of the good team.

Until the Dingo or Joey is gone, explicit role claims are dangerous for everyone. Prey and Predator alike.

 

[VashTheStampede]

I'm conceptually okay with voting off Kat but I'd like to give her more time to show up first.

 

[TD]

Kookaburra can go ahead and tag me if they like.

 

[Fool's Requiem]

No BS, we need the Joey to not even HINT at being the Joey. As such, I'm taking any suggestion that they are a Joey as total BS.

Joey, BTW. Are you my mama?

 

[VashTheStampede]

I honestly don't know how you did it.

I lasted 14 minutes.

I had typed up posts and deleted them at least a half dozen times.

 

[TD]

So who are we thinking the predators tried to kill.

Kelly has been tossed out there more than once.

For transparency,
He told us to look at shortkut and voted for me.

 

[TD]

If When I get to 69, I'll leave it in honour of Jawneh.

 

[VashTheStampede]

I think Kelly would have been the obvious play for the predators.

Zell says to try and get rid of "bullets", right?

 

[Dean]

Yeah I saw that. And are you a platypus?

BTW if you (or anyone else) is a Kookaburra, please do NOT tag anyone. If you accidentally reveal the Joey it's game over.

No, I am not.

 

[Zell 17]

Which is fine but again, not everyone will explicitly role claim. History also shows that most of those hints from those trying to be subtle are accurate if they are actually a member of the good team.

Until the Dingo or Joey is gone, explicit role claims are dangerous for everyone. Prey and Predator alike.

The only way we can get rid of either is to aggressively lynch people with bad claims.

At the end of the day, the Dingo is going to have about a 20% chance to insta-win no matter what we do. How did I come up with 20%? 6 people are going to end up having trash claims and will never be killed: The Joey, the predators, and the Dingo. The dingo needs to try and sort out the predators from the Joey.

Right now the Dingo has about a 10% chance if they guess randomly among the unclaimed. If we lynch anybody today thats NOT the Dingo or Joey, that chance goes up. By asking two people to claim, that chance goes to like 14% so long as we know they are 100% truthful (hint: we don't).

I'm not gonna be alive for very long. I need to maximize the efficiency of my checks if we are gonna have a chance to get rid of the Dingo. We need to lock the evils out of the random roles.

 

[Zell 17]

I'm conceptually okay with voting off Kat but I'd like to give her more time to show up first.

Good news is we can't vote her off until the day phase ends

 

[TD]

I vote shortkut.

Kelly and I both seem to be curious of him.
It's good enough for me for now.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Good news is we can't vote her off until the day phase ends

Yeah, just getting ahead of any silly skippers.

 

[Zell 17]

Yeah, just getting ahead of any silly skippers.

Doesnt it need to be unanimous? Just don't skip, right?

 

[shortkut]

I disagree with this plan.

We can't let the Dingo narrow it down and get a lucky guess.

This is smart because if the dingo can narrow down the suspects for the Joey, game could be over in 1-3 days whether we kill the predators or not

 

[VashTheStampede]

Doesnt it need to be unanimous? Just don't skip, right?

Does it? I'm used to there being some wiggle room.

 

[A Punched Face]

We also need to be wary of outing the Kangaroo right? The Joey knows who the kangaroo is and people will start to inspect interactions with that person.

 

[shortkut]

Oh and if the Joey gets mislynched it basically guarantees a town win so

No, if we lynch the Joey, the dingo joins the predators

 

[Zell 17]

This is smart because if the dingo can narrow down the suspects for the Joey, game could be over in 1-3 days whether we kill the predators or not

What you guys aren't understanding is that the suspects are going to get narrowed no matter what we do. Kills and lynches will happen every night. The difference is, The Dingo doesn't KNOW if a role claim is true. Once someone dies, that's proven information.

The key is to maximize the chance that the kills are the Dingo.

 

[Zell 17]

No, if we lynch the Joey, the dingo joins the predators

Which is excellent news for the town.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Guys if we kill predators then that makes it easier for the dingo to find the Joey

Who's up for a draw?

 

[Zell 17]

We also need to be wary of outing the Kangaroo right? The Joey knows who the kangaroo is and people will start to inspect interactions with that person.

Yeah I don't want any of the fixed roles to claim today. Just the random roles.

 

[TD]

Might as well just be like "are you the Dingo?". Last one to say they aren't very clearly is. Right? Based on this logic?

I'll start.

I am not the Dingo.

 

[Zell 17]

Might as well just be like "are you the Dingo?". Last one to say they aren't very clearly is. Right? Based on this logic?

I'll start.

I am not the Dingo.

...What? Now I'm worried that I'm not making my posts clear enough.

 

[Dean]

Might as well just be like "are you the Dingo?". Last one to say they aren't very clearly is. Right? Based on this logic?

I'll start.

I am not the Dingo.

I am not nor have I ever been a dingo.

I have been called a dingus on several occasions though.