Zell Wolf Zell Wolf Rebirth (Just kidding, you're dead)

[VashTheStampede]

 

[Raine]

I have been inflicted with far too many Dad Jokes in my lifetime.

 

[TD]

I still don't know what it means.

 

[Raine]

...I will forgive you considering the current circumstances. But just this once.

T D
raine
TraineD

You... you train the puppy to not poop on the floor? YOU'RE KILLIN' ME SMALLS

 

[VashTheStampede]

I still don't know what it means.

Perhaps you aren't a divergent thinker like others of us

 

[Raine]

Vash you have to teach him the ways.

 

[Raine]

that's not 5d chess. that's 1d tic tac toe.

the one Zell game I was a wolf, I had everyone claim everyone else's roles for exactly this reason. remember that was the game I claimed flower girl even though I wasn't the wolf that can block lynches?

Somebody tell Cole that @shortkut spent the entire game being mad at @Fool's Requiem for stealing his role, instead of the hussy that actually did it. He definitely doesn't remember this.

Cole was a beautiful Flower Child that game though, it's true.

 

[TD]

...when you said that I went into Day 1 searching for "trained" because I thought you meant that you found that someone specifically said that and it was something insane like the Sorceror speaking in code to the wolves and we missed it. Then I didn't find anything and ignored the much simpler explanation.

Yes.
That is where my brain went first.

I understand now.

 

[Raine]

Man that would've been fucked up, I would've been so pissed.

I mean in that case mad props to them of course, but I would nuke them from orbit for at least a couple games in a row as retaliation.

 

[TD]

I mean if there was ever any doubt about my genuinely insane brain that's probably gone now at least.

 

[Raposuh]

Naw we definitely did that

 

[Dean]

I still think Cole, Jon, Kat, Jawneh, and Local are all bad.

Local may be the Alpha Wolf
I don't know who's the rest of the roles

 

[Raine]

Given our buddy Raposuh here is basically guaranteed to be the Fan.

TD was most likely right, and Kat is the Sorcerer.

 

[Dean]

Given our buddy Raposuh here is basically guaranteed to be the Fan.

TD was most likely right, and Kat is the Sorcerer.

shortkut gave me some vibes too, but I can never tell with him tbh

 

[Dean]

If Alu can be trusted, at least if the wolves take out Tommy Boy, then Alu will assume his role

 

[TD]

Given our buddy Raposuh here is basically guaranteed to be the Fan.

TD was most likely right, and Kat is the Sorcerer.

Raposuh could also still be the Sorceror technically who gave up his powers if they thought they could've won it last night.

 

[Raine]

Raposuh could also still be the Sorceror technically who gave up his powers if they thought they could've won it last night.

Technically yes, but - if they checked about Berserk negating Tough Guy, they checked (or didn't need to if Alu is involved) Sorcerer being able to relinquish at literally any point.

Remember, I asked Zell if Alu was allowed to relinquish while imprisoned by Holly's Warden. He (Zell) said yes, he (Alu) was.

Edit: Assuming nothing has changed since then, I suppose.

 

[Zell 17]

Can relinquish anytime, yes

 

[TD]

Looked at the day for the first time - the town making moves, way to go Tommy.

 

[TD]

if the wolves wanted Tommy dead, why didn't they all just rapidly switch over and seal a lynch AND A FUCKING WIN? I'm not a wolf, they could have easily voted with me to kill Tommy. and it would have won the game *if Tommy was who he says*.

Also not going to lie - I thought this was what was going to happen as soon as Tubby moved over.

In a way it almost reads like genuine frustration.

 

[Raine]

The nature of the game usually means that, yeah, phases can be as long as you want them to be - but timing will always matter, and if the people aren't available in that specific window then there's nothing you can do about it. Pretty sure all three of us lamented that in the first Confusion Wolf game.

I admit there's a certain sense of catharsis in Cole's chosen defense - being tired of this style and "META" strategy - while being called out by Tommy as being evil.

 

[TD]

I feel like I remember thinking that all my wolf suspects were hovering around near the end of the day phase so that's why I thought it was actually about to happen. Which honestly? It would've been both a hilarious and epic way to close out the game.

Now? It seems like the wolves are crumbling and selling themselves out to save Cole rather than let him die and live to fight another day. Oof.

 

[Raine]

Assuming the situation is as it appears:

Situations change, but Kat coming forward as a fake Bodyguard (or whatever nebulous thing she was going for) is going to be the thing that haunts them I think. Picking up the Fan Night 0 was a stroke of luck; they proceeded to talk themselves into a series of compounding gambits that pigeonholed several of them. And may well undo them all.

By all accounts, the Confusion Wolf's powers went to waste. Nowhere to hide with the three deaths that happened. Between that and no Solo Killer to potentially swing the pendulum, they're a bigger force but the margin for error isn't quite as lax.

 

[TD]

At the time the Kat move wasn't terrible but it is going to come back to bite them. They also put themselves into a hilarious vote trap which is how I became so convinced on most of them. My reads typically come from two main things, behavioural analysis and voting patterns. A lot of people will say shit like cold reads can't happen but they absolutely can.

I mean shit - Vash tossed a vote at me and then look at this:
TD - 7 (VashTheStampede, Local Hero, Jon, Jawneh, Raposuh, Kat, Dean)


By my estimation literally the whole wolf team except Cole jumped on voting for me because he definitely knows better than to do something like this. Aside from Vash & Dean, none of the others jumped on Local when it mattered after I called him a wolf. Pretty fucking sus huh?

Aren't you proud of my vote pattern analysis since that's your thing?

 

[Raine]

Aren't you proud of my vote pattern analysis since that's your thing?

It's absolutely my thing, and indeed!

Also note that Cole and Kat voted for Tommy yesterday. Jon moved off, because well... yeah... but still. There's a lot to keep track of, but choosing a (good) role and being mindful of how and when you vote are real tripping points.

 

[VashTheStampede]

I almost always try to get bandwagons going in the first day or two to try and flush out wolves. But then I never have the patience to go back and reexamine the bandwagons later when the information might actually be useful.

But that's Uncle Derp for ya

 

[TD]

but choosing a (good) role and being mindful of how and when you vote are real tripping points

The lack of role claiming or lack thereof was a big hint too. From what I could tell, Cole, Jon, and Jawneh didn't claim anything. Local's claim was pretty weak especially with the timing of coming when the bandwagon formed. Raposuh was okay-ish but was almost too subtle. Kat had likely the strongest claim but it kind of read like the main reason that claim was there was to cast doubt on me but was also pointing out I didn't claim TG.

I remember the game where me, you, Cole, and Alu were wolves - Cole was double seered Day 1 which was tough to get out of but he put up a great fight, even from beyond the grave. You had a strong spirit seer claim but of course there were two real ones too. Alu was doing great as fake Aura. I was generally under the radar and playing the disruption role. It was honestly a game that was going well for us until Uncle Derp said nuh uh.

A lack of aggressiveness this game hurt too. The knowledge that I was TG and you were Warden wasn't used - Kelly's claim of being jailed with me was not even challenged. Nobody was like "maybe Kelly knows their roles because of Confusion" from what I saw or counter claimed Warden/TG - neither of which we explicitly claimed. I expected hijacking of our roles like when you hijacked kut's.

Starting Day 2 it felt like the wolves had this in the bag - I'm utterly shocked that it's now looking like a coin flip game.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Clearly the deck was stacked against the wolves

 

[Dean]

I'm not trying to take more credit than I deserve, but I do think that once I had time to pay more attention and actually made notes and analyzed everyone's claims and plays, and I tried to force the issue, it became clearer.

Cole didn't want to hardly engage with me because I think he knew I was onto him. It was completely out of character for him to not want to do any claiming and then say it was a bullshit strategy, especially after he used that strategy a bunch of times.

I called Jon out on his bullshit claim of having a guaranteed role and finally got him to break. I fortunately made the right call with Raposuh and switched to them at a pivotal moment, and then killed them when they were saved from the lynch. I also saw through Kat's bullshit and stayed on Jawneh.

If it turns out I'm totally wrong and those aren't the wolves, then I'll be surprised and a bit disappointed but alright with it. Despite dying on day two, I feel like this is probably the best I have played since the new forums started.

 

[Dean]

You did play good but my biggest thing is you were openly flip flopping and second guessing yourself way too much which could have greatly backfired for you or your town. If your witch claim gets challenged at all, that gets dicey. Your abstains in both Day 1 & Day 2 were a bit strange.

But overall yes, you did good.

You shouldn't have jumped off Local Day 1 though.

That's true. I didn't have the time to really sit down and analyze stuff yet. Once I actually made the effort and started grilling some people like Cole and Jon, it was easier.

I wish I didn't back off Local on day one, but when you admitted it was a cold read and he had only posted a few memes at that point, you lost some credibility, and he had a good argument to weasel his way out of it.

 

[Dean]

Also if it wasn't for Tommy Boy's return and big post, I probably would've fucked up

 

[VashTheStampede]

#DeanTeam

 

[Dean]

#DeanTeam

#DeadTeam

 

[Fool's Requiem]

#ZombieTeam

 

[Raine]

I almost always try to get bandwagons going in the first day or two to try and flush out wolves. But then I never have the patience to go back and reexamine the bandwagons later when the information might actually be useful.

I NOTICED THAT "THIRD TO VOTE FOR SOMEONE ON DAY ONE" AGAIN, BUSTER

A lack of aggressiveness this game hurt too. The knowledge that I was TG and you were Warden wasn't used - Kelly's claim of being jailed with me was not even challenged. Nobody was like "maybe Kelly knows their roles because of Confusion" from what I saw or counter claimed Warden/TG - neither of which we explicitly claimed. I expected hijacking of our roles like when you hijacked kut's.

I was kind of shocked Kelly didn't let it ruminate for a while, and see if the wolves tried to bodysnatch us. My public claim was far more Witch/Tough Guy/Marksman, and there was no reason for the town to think Warden. Because of how I decided to go about lying (which was a mirror of Local's ).

But yeah, very little questioning and he just dropped the information straight away on Page 1 I think.

 

[VashTheStampede]

I NOTICED THAT "THIRD TO VOTE FOR SOMEONE ON DAY ONE" AGAIN, BUSTER

I didn't realize it was the third when I did it but then when Zell posted the next vote count I stg my first thought was "If Raine doesn't call me out, she's a wolf".

I was sure batting 1.000 this game

 

[TD]

Also if it wasn't for Tommy Boy's return and big post, I probably would've fucked up

It was a great example of the town being able to bind together and get 'er done.

 

[TD]

I was kind of shocked Kelly didn't let it ruminate for a while, and see if the wolves tried to bodysnatch us. My public claim was far more Witch/Tough Guy/Marksman, and there was no reason for the town to think Warden. Because of how I decided to go about lying (which was a mirror of Local's ).

I think Kelly probably wanted to get ahead of it because of how many people found him sus on day one. He actually straight up asked me in the jail chat why do I believe him with him playing a way he never has and so many people finding him sus. I answered him, then Zell was like "Jail time is up, btw TD's dead".

 

[Zell 17]

Picking up the Fan Night 0 was a stroke of luck

I disagree that hitting the Fan night 1 is lucky, if I was a wolf that would be the LAST thing I would want. A couple reasons:

- Confusion is most useful night 1, because someone can claim the dead person's role.
- The unturned werewolf fan is useful as someone with good aura (Makes Aura checks less powerful). And they can also cause the marksman / warden to waste their weapon or suicide, meaning every villager killer except the witch is at risk when using their ability even if they KNOW their target is non-village.
- The only benefit of turning the fan is you get an additional wolf for winning condition purposes, but even then it's always better to kill a villager instead. Here's an example. Let's say the game is 7 town v 5 wolves v 1 wwfan. If the wolves turn the fan, it's 7 v 6 and the village can dig out of it with good play. If the wolves kill a villager, it's 6 v 5 v1 but the 1 is always voting with the wolves.

If the wolves had killed a villager night 1 this game is likely over already.

 

[Raine]

I disagree that hitting the Fan night 1 is lucky, if I was a wolf that would be the LAST thing I would want.

Fair point, though I was more of the "as opposed to getting blocked" (Kat's claim) perspective with that. Hitting the Fan is at least +1/-1, getting blocked is just... oof.
I originally wrote "a fan"... multiple Werewolf Fans being in play would be interesting.

- Confusion is most useful night 1, because someone can claim the dead person's role.

This is definitely the worst thing that happened to them, ostensibly. When TD had Confusion Wolf and we killed shortkut, then blocked the Day 1 lynch (and reminder we were doing that no matter who was brought to the gallows), and then did the second Confusion immediately after - that, I think, was the ideal. Absolutely no information for the town and endless amounts of confusion. Kudos to Kat with the assist on Ryan's Aura Seer there too.

Getting blocked or hitting the fan? Pain. Suffering. Misery. In retrospect we were lucky Cole had the RRW Wolf Seer, but burning one of the Sorcerer's two information shares would probably be the best choice I reckon. You basically just want to kill anything, so it not turning up Fan/Solo Killer/Tough Guy = go time.

If the wolves had killed a villager night 1 this game is likely over already.

Quite possible, especially since Kat isn't directly in the firing line then. Really depends on the who and the what - so it'll be interesting to hear from the wolves what their number considerations beyond the one they went with were.

 

[Zell 17]

Welcome back @Benzine and hi @Cole

 

[VashTheStampede]

 

[Dean]

@Benzine are you going back to your original plan of Jawneh?

 

[Benzine]

I will wait to see what Tommy says. No use in only guessing.

Jawneh will be later at this rate, Tommy’s search or Kat are next.

 

[Fool's Requiem]

so, who are we thinking wins this?

Is there a solo killer?

 

[Raine]

...Okay I'm back to not understanding.

I mean I understand what I'm seeing.

I'm not understanding the decision to go for a layered long con game. You have to believe that the pro-side faction is completely incompetent for that to work in this gametype, I think?

Which... I MEAN NEVER UNDERESTIMATE OUR ABILITY TO DO STUPID SHIT.

But yeah.

In the driver's seat, definitely would've stuck with the KISS approach - just swap Fan (I assume Cole) and Sorcerer (I assume Raposuh). Don't get Kat involved. Unless she's a Wolf Avenger I guess, but even then... And if Kat's Wolf Avenger, there's no Alpha so I'm even more confused about Local. So I will instead assume Kat is the Guardian Wolf? ...But then they've layered everything else so maybe she's Confusion Wolf? ...It doesn't really matter, a wolf is a wolf is a wolf.

Will be sure to periodically check in with popcorn. I also need @Cole to tell me after the game whether he and Kat would've lobotomized the fuck out of me if I lived long enough to imprison the two of them.

so, who are we thinking wins this?

I think a lot rides on tonight for the wolves. If they get blocked, I don't think there's any remaining route to victory. Meaning Tubby needs to be dealt with... but from their perspective, he's under protection from the Ritualist's spell.

At this point I don't know that the Seers truly matter any longer? But of course, not my call - my call got me dead.

Is there a solo killer?

There isn't, so it's a one-on-one arms race - town vs wolves. I would posit that wolves are always at least somewhat disadvantaged in such a scenario, unless their opening moves seal the deal. That definitely didn't happen here - and would've been even worse if either Vash or I weren't dead in addition to their primary target of TD.

 

[Cole]

There isn't, so it's a one-on-one arms race - town vs wolves. I would posit that wolves are always at least somewhat disadvantaged in such a scenario, unless their opening moves seal the deal. That definitely didn't happen here - and would've been even worse if either Vash or I weren't dead in addition to their primary target of TD.

the wolves will always lose this version of the game without at minimum a fool.

the game also needs a townie role that reads evil.

soon as everyone realized you could force people to name their roles and process of elimination the rest, the games moot

 

[Zell 17]

@Tubby23 is here

 

[Tubby23]

 

[Zell 17]

the wolves will always lose this version of the game without at minimum a fool.

the game also needs a townie role that reads evil.

soon as everyone realized you could force people to name their roles and process of elimination the rest, the games moot

On day 2 all of the random villagers were unproven and had not been checked by any seers. They only way to distinguish between them and the wolves was by who was most convincing in their innocence.