"Wipe yourself off, man. You dead."

[Local Hero]

Kelly still isn't mathing correctly about that shadow day. Had they just voted for you without calling attention to a larger coordination plan it likely wouldn't have resulted in first Kat then I pointing out that they could win right then and there by voting you off. Without that I'm not at you would have voted to force a tie and maybe just would have assumed a townie was going.

...would you have voted with the town without that?

I'm not sure if I follow (are there typos in this?), but I would have voted for a tie if they had afforded me that option

 

[A Punched Face]

I think Kelly was also trying to intentionally fudge the numbers. You know, 'cause he was evil.

Yeah but he was still posting those numbers in here after he was dead and it couldn't impact the game lol

 

[VashTheStampede]

Yeah but he was still posting those numbers in here after he was dead and it couldn't impact the game lol

He was method acting

 

[Ben]

Yeah but he was still posting those numbers in here after he was dead and it couldn't impact the game lol

Yeah well he's the "good at English" guy, not the "good at Math" guy. That's @Quagmire.

 

[A Punched Face]

I'm not sure if I follow (are there typos in this?), but I would have voted for a tie if they had afforded me that option

Maybe?

I'm asking if, had we not pointed out the the wolves could betray you and win the game right there, you would have voted "with the wolves" instead of the town. Because if yes to voting with the wolves, then they could have lynched you and won immediately

 

[A Punched Face]

I guess it's just a "if Kelly didn't make that first post that day" would you have bothered coordinating with the town when we tried to coordinate our own votes? I'm asking because I probably wouldn't have picked up on the instant win possibility for them and pointed it out

 

[Local Hero]

Maybe?

I'm asking if, had we not pointed out the the wolves could betray you and win the game right there, you would have voted "with the wolves" instead of the town. Because if yes to voting with the wolves, then they could have lynched you and won immediately

Oh, with Kelly's initial "hey I'm a wolf, SK, work with us" post?

I still thought I could hide with Vash as potential SK and the possibility that if I could just get my kills off I'd win

 

[Local Hero]

I guess it's just a "if Kelly didn't make that first post that day" would you have bothered coordinating with the town when we tried to coordinate our own votes? I'm asking because I probably wouldn't have picked up on the instant win possibility for them and pointed it out

I would not have played any differently

 

[Smacktard]

Kelly still isn't mathing correctly about that shadow day. Had they just voted for you without calling attention to a larger coordination plan it likely wouldn't have resulted in first Kat then I pointing out that they could win right then and there by voting you off.

Nah. The first day we messed up the vote, but it didn't matter because we were voting for Tommy, not Local.

The second time it was 5T+1SK against 6 Wolf votes. The SK would always vote with the town because it was in the town's interest to keep them alivem I literally said "vote with us against a townie, SK" and but he didn't. It did make sense not to from his perspective because we could've been duping him, I suppose, but it was worth a shot.

From our perspective, you all had the information so the right play was to trick the SK into thinking he would be safe by voting with the evils and then betraying him. But if you didn't know for sure who he was then obviously that couldn't have been the play.

That's why we voted Vash. If he was bluffing about being preacher, we win anyway.

Btw, @Local Hero got the codes right but the reasoning wrong. Each non-wolf was assigned a common bird name. I think Vash was the parrot, and Local was the duck or something.

SK could have won in the route where Kelly describes 0% and could have had 0% winning had the wolves known who he was on the path he describes as 50/50.

Wut how

 

[Smacktard]

I think Kelly was also trying to intentionally fudge the numbers. You know, 'cause he was evil.

No, I'm just a dummy

 

[Ben]

Btw, @Local Hero got the codes right but the reasoning wrong. Each non-wolf was assigned a common bird name. I think Vash was the parrot, and Local was the duck or something.

Local was Hawk.

 

[A Punched Face]

Wut how

We still didn't know who was who for sure (Vash was not confirmed officially until he died really, and it was entirely possible the previous shadow losing could have been from him not voting with the wolves instead of Ben missing the vote) so it could have been possible for two wolves to be in lockup and kill Benzine.

Also, had you all killed Benzine instead of Vash that night we wouldn't have been able to lock people up to prevent night kills and would have been forced to choose between the wolves winning and the SK winning. Lynch the SK and the wolves win, lynch a wolf and the SK runs wild and probably wins that night.

 

[A Punched Face]

So not knowing your full plans or your full team make-up made there a possibility for him to win in what you're describing as a no win path.

 

[Local Hero]

I'm not capable of all this strategy and possibilities.

I just stack kills and wait to see what happens.

 

[canadaguy]

Night one (or zero, if you're anyone but Tommy) is one thing, because it is essentially random due to number selection.

Day one/night 2 kills will be a real interesting one, because those will be the random town power kills and wolf kills by name selection.

I think I've had a few recently that I've died quite early, but whatevs.

Day 1 death here even, so I think that just shows people are scared of my prowess

 

[A Punched Face]

If you were 100% certain at that point who you would go after in the night, then it probably approaches 0 from your perspective. But even in the thread you were saying "do we kill Benzine or Vash tonight?" - and as pointed out above, if you went for Benzine the SK would have been able to go on a rampage the next night if the town decided to vote in a certain way.

Would have still been 3 town, 2 wolves, 1 SK, and the town would have controlled the vote. But again, voting for a wolf meant letting the SK kill at night (and hoping for an arsonist who missed everyone) and voting for the SK would have been a loss that night.

So the town would have needed to vote for a wolf, and Local had enough kills stacked up to kill the remaining townies.

 

[Ben]

Mmmm, still in the blister pack.

 

[A Punched Face]

View attachment 20911

Mmmm, still in the blister pack.

Is he becoming a cylon in the top left? Or Zebra Geordi La Forge?

 

[Ben]

Is he becoming a cylon in the top left? Or Zebra Geordi La Forge?

Yes.

 

[Ben]

It's his special visor that allows him to see people communicating about Wolf outside of the appropriate threads.

 

[Smacktard]

We still didn't know who was who for sure (Vash was not confirmed officially until he died really, and it was entirely possible the previous shadow losing could have been from him not voting with the wolves instead of Ben missing the vote) so it could have been possible for two wolves to be in lockup and kill Benzine.

We appealed to the SK to join us on voting Vash. If Vash wasn't a preacher, the appeal didn't matter or make sense. The only remaining SK had to be either Jawneh or Local.

Vash and Local had both locked in their votes on a wolf earlier in the day. That's why we dropped the shadow and appealed to the SK to join us. We said exactly what would happen next:
A townie would be jailed with the wolf
The SK would be nightmared
Townie would be killed
2W + 3T + 1SK
Day
Here again the SK had a chance to tie the vote and potentially eke a win, but he chose to kill a wolf.
Unfortunately, they killed the wrong wolf.
1W + 3T + 1SK
Jailed, no SK kills, no wolf kills
Vote SK first, then wolf (who suspects a third Shadow wolf?)

IF the vote were tied, it would've been 2W + 2T + 1SK the next day
Again, no one suspecting a shadow wolf
If there weren't a shadow wolf, T+SK team up to kill me
SK can't be imprisoned two nights in a row
SK murders all next day

Also, had you all killed Benzine instead of Vash that night we wouldn't have been able to lock people up to prevent night kills and would have been forced to choose between the wolves winning and the SK winning. Lynch the SK and the wolves win, lynch a wolf and the SK runs wild and probably wins that night.

Killing Benzine meant we couldn't stop the SK from winning for another night. That's why we even told him we were going to be sparing the Jailer. We said: we're going to nightmare you and then block you from killing for two nights in a row, so join us

If I were the SK, I would feel so cornered that I'd have to join, because what other options would I have?

 

[Smacktard]

Also we didn't know if Local was the arsonist. We had to hedge for whether he miraculously had everyone covered in gasoline and just needed to light a match

 

[Quagmire]

the "good at Math" guy. That's @Quagmire.

 

[Quagmire]

Also we didn't know if Local was the arsonist. We had to hedge for whether he miraculously had everyone covered in gasoline and just needed to light a match

If he were the illusionist he could have killed everyone in the day

 

[Smacktard]

If he were the illusionist he could have killed everyone in the day

By that point, he would've had to have had pinpoint precision with his targets. Stranger things have happened though, I guess

 

[A Punched Face]

Kelly - you're operating on the thought that the town knew vash was good and not the SK. We didn't. Local was even hoping that the town thought vash was evil and that any one of you could have been SK. As I said, from your perspective knowing everything you did, it looks like it was 0%. From the perspective of people who didn't know it fully, it wasn't. He obviously knew you weren't, but Benzine's jailings could have gone a very different route if we didn't confirm early (through the unknown aura read) that Local was actually the SK and that he should have been jailed instead of a different one of you. Benzine even wasn't 100% after I posted the aura read in the thread.

Also, had Vash stuck to his pacifist plan (which would have been really funny) you wouldn't have been able to kill him and we would have been back to the previous day. Had Benzine decided to roll the dice with different people in jail, it could have resulted in the SK getting to kill.

There were things out of your control that had to happen in a certain way to make it so he'd not win, so it was not 0% at that time.


This isn't about what was discovered in the next couple of days, it's what was known at the time: at the time the town only knew for certain that Myself, Kat, and Benzine were town. Everyone else was some assortment of Evil minus one, who we suspected was Vash. That we had to make decisions to prevent the SK from being able to win is the point. And at that moment, it wasn't guaranteed we'd make decisions that would guarantee an SK loss.

 

[Kat]

I never planned to win. I just hate handicapping the town so badly inadvertently.

There are worse combos for the town. And why do you care if the town or evils win? You weren't the town team.

But they cant communicate with the couple so it makes it harder IMO. Sure you can do that, but something like last night can happen where one is killed causing a three way death party

I wouldn't be opposed to Cupid being able to send the couple one message a day or the couple being and/or the could being able to message Cupid. Have it go through the GM so they can't use it to learn who Cupid is.

That's completely different than what I'm saying though. You're talking in game strategy. I'm talking about the role itself. it's boring AF. If I'm going to play a role that it going to generate hate, it should at least be fun. I literally pick a pair of players night one, then the role does NOTHING. On top of that, it's not a solo role. You're at the mercy of what two other players are doing.

Meh, there are lots of roles without much to do. I splashed once and didn't use my role the entire rest of the game.

I get what you're saying though. Cupid is more fun for players who like to focus on strategy and deception. If you want to use your role abilities, it's not a fun role.

But then they cupided pair could literally just say "hey give me a 'specific reaction here' on my post when I make reference to a cartoon" and find out who the cupid is on day 1.

But side note on your example, others would absolutely pick up on something like that in this game and with this group. So it's a risk. .

Nah, I've done similar multiple times as a wolf, and if anybody ever picked up on it, they've never said so. Reactions are very easy to hide.

I dunno, am I missing something? What's the point of hiding what you are at this point, other than to look guilty? I know a lot of the other variables (Cupid, Instigator, Kat vouching and now proven) are off the table, but I'm curious why?

I nearly mentioned his role in my initial post clearing him, then noticed at the last second he didn't role claim, so I deleted it. I agree it was pretty easy to figure out, but there was no need to claim it outright, so

I almost poisoned Kat as “fuck you” for trying to get me killed, then decided to not deliberately hurt the town. Accidentally is okay

I said I didn't want to pick but they made me!

I am always amused as to what everyone imagines the warden's weapon to be

I always imagined a spiked bat. I don't know why, it's pretty weird now that I think about it.

Imagine if I had just watered Jawneh instead

God dammit

Imagine if I'd watered either of the two people the dice picked.

I see where she's coming from but I don't share that philosophy [about evils helping each other]

Agreed. Specifically their win conditions say they have to kill each other.

Zell has said multiple times that the game is balanced with the intention that evils are tentative allies. Obviously not to the point of their own detriment, but they shouldn't be helping the town. If every team tries to help the town win when they feel they can't, then the town will be overpowered.

Bigger question is why the town never tried to consider the 4th wolf power. They just forgot about it. Or more accurately, they only considered Local being the alpha, nit what Jawneh could be if he was wolf.

Like many people here, I assumed a blind wolf due to strong townie kills the first two nights. I did consider guardian, but figured they'd have already used it if they had it. Three shadow wolves never once occurred to me as a possibility, though I did kinda expect the second one.

Honestly feel like this was a fun one.

Standouts from the "endgame":

Jawneh, Local (aside from a little hiccup there at the end, but I can only imagine how badly I would have fucked up in his spot), and Kelly all really stood out as playing a great game.

Completely agreed. I can't even blame Local for the botched lynch. His reasoning to wait until the last minute to mess with Benzine's picks made sense. It's tough to coordinate when you're on different teams.

I've said John-ah for 20 years.

This is how I've always read it.

I was tempted to let you live just for the gimmick (and the gators) but I didn't want to be a shitty teammate.

I wouldn't have blamed you.

Do Kat and Alu think he's lying still?

I did!!

This is the biggest built-in issue I see with Wolf. By nature of it, there are some players who are just going to get taken out early and essentially don't get to play. Which is dumb. At least the dead-body solves people getting to do nothing at all.

Part of the fun is avoiding this! This is actually why I almost never role claim: it leaves me suspicious enough that the evils don't kill me. I used to get killed early a lot until I started to do that.

Btw, @Local Hero got the codes right but the reasoning wrong. Each non-wolf was assigned a common bird name. I think Vash was the parrot, and Local was the duck or something.

Which bird was I?

 

[Ben]

Which bird was I?

Chicken.

 

[Kat]

A chicken?!

 

[Smacktard]

Kelly - you're operating on the thought that the town knew vash was good and not the SK

No, because if Vash were the SK, then we three remaining wolves would have been successful in voting him off during the shadow, and the SK would be gone. So the point about "tying the vote" would be moot because Vash wouldn't be able to possibly tie it. Why would we want to keep him around longer when the SK could ruin the wolves? It would be easier for the three of us to hide among Local as the last unconfirmed townie. If Vash weren't the preacher, he wouldn't be able to tie the vote, and Benzine jailing him wouldn't have been possible. Ben would've been jailed alone and wouldn't have been killed, then it would've been 3W v 4T. Vash could possibly have been a wolf, which is why I didn't think there was any possibility Benzine would jail him with anyone other than your or Kat, but ultimately he did, and it didn't matter.

Benzine's jailings could have gone a very different route if we didn't confirm early (through the unknown aura read) that Local was actually the SK

That read took place the next day, after Vash was already dead. At that point, there were two wolves and a SK left, and three town. I already outed myself as a wolf, so the only logical move, even if I weren't killed, would be to jail the other two unknowns. Next day, 2W+2T+1SK. In the end (ignoring Shadow possibility, as everyone did anyway), the town still has to choose the winner, and almost always sides with SK IMO.

@Zell 17 Your take on this? Alu and I are struggling to see eye to eye, so maybe a third party can help clear this up.

 

[Ben]

@Zell 17 Your take on this? Alu and I are struggling to see eye to eye, so maybe a third party can help clear this up.

 

[Kat]

Btw @Ben , the reason your post claiming you'd been rerolled from gunner to violinist was so suspicious is because they're in different categories. It wasn't clear whether you could reroll somebody else into a new category or not, but I was guessing not. At a minimum, somebody who had a strong role would've had to swap categories too, which seems like something Benzine or CG would've mentioned. Lucky for you, Quagmire was dead, so it wasn't completely impossible.

If you'd said you were a witch and somebody rerolled you and you were mad, maybe I would've believed that.

 

[A Punched Face]

That read took place the next day, after Vash was already dead. At that point, there were two wolves and a SK left, and three town. I already outed myself as a wolf, so the only logical move, even if I weren't killed, would be to jail the other two unknowns. Next day, 2W+2T+1SK. In the end (ignoring Shadow possibility, as everyone did anyway), the town still has to choose the winner, and almost always sides with SK IMO.

@Zell 17 Your take on this? Alu and I are struggling to see eye to eye, so maybe a third party can help clear this up

That's my point. Something that took place the next day needed to happen before it reduced odds (my read). At the time the original thing was happening his odds weren't as low. And also negates that Benzine still didn't fully trust Vash at the end of the day and could have gone a different route, or vash could have chosen to not kill.

You said 0% at the time and are now relying on something that happened later to make it 0%.

 

[Smacktard]

A chicken?!

Sorry dood, I had to think of a bird that could be used in everyday speech without drawing too much attention. I couldn't refer to you as a peacock or a salt marsh sharp-tailed sparrow

His reasoning to wait until the last minute to mess with Benzine's picks made sense

Wait what
I think I missed this part

 

[Ben]

Btw @Ben , the reason your post claiming you'd been rerolled from gunner to violinist was so suspicious is because they're in different categories. It wasn't clear whether you could reroll somebody else into a new category or not, but I was guessing not. At a minimum, somebody who had a strong role would've had to swap categories too, which seems like something Benzine or CG would've mentioned. Lucky for you, Quagmire was dead, so it wasn't completely impossible.

If you'd said you were a witch and somebody rerolled you and you were mad, maybe I would've believed that.

Yeah... I'd said the correct thing the day before, that I tried to keep my role and reroll Jon, but I tried to get the thought out before connecting to a Google Meet and completely botched what I meant to say. Wondering whether I'd not have been beaten by a religious fella' had I not made that post keeps me up at night.

 

[A Punched Face]

I'm walking the dog and missed A statement. Benzine not trusting vash fully is important. If he chose to jail me that night instead of Vash to get a confirmed townie in, I get no read for the next day.

 

[Kat]

@Zell 17 Your take on this? Alu and I are struggling to see eye to eye, so maybe a third party can help clear this up.

There are always so many unknowns that it's impossible to say the odds for any particular strategy. If nothing else, people can talk themselves out of surprising corners. It's also not fair to say it's a 50/50 chance that someone keeps their word in a game of deception.

So I think you two can disagree and both be reasonable.

 

[Kat]

Wait what
I think I missed this part

I mentioned in live thread, but I wanted to tie the vote nearly last minute so Benzine's has targets would be non optimal. But Jawneh view for Kelly

Benzine has to pick who he jails during the day, and changing the lynch target would probably change who he should jail. It makes sense.

 

[A Punched Face]

Also I think local could have won had we kept our votes on Jawneh instead of switching to you. He would have needed to shadow early and then it would have been all up to jail choices again.

 

[Kat]

Yeah... I'd said the correct thing the day before, that I tried to keep my role and reroll Jon, but I tried to get the thought out before connecting to a Google Meet and completely botched what I meant to say. Wondering whether I'd not have been beaten by a religious fella' had I not made that post keeps me up at night.

You lived until your claim became literally impossible, so I wouldn't beat yourself up about it.

 

[Smacktard]

And also negates that Benzine still didn't fully trust Vash at the end of the day and could have gone a different route, or vash could have chosen to not kill.

If Benzine didn't fully trust Vash, why jail him with Ben, who was believed to be a wolf? It wouldn't make sense from Benzine's perspective. And anyway, it doesn't matter. In any situation other than voting with the wolves, it doesn't matter.

I think I see what you're saying though: Why would Local vote to lynch Vash when Vash could actually be a wolf?

Because if Vash WASN'T the preacher, we wouldn't have to appeal to the SK to vote with us. We would've had the votes to brute force the lynch anyway, so why bother asking the SK to help us?

Is that what you're saying? Maybe I'm not understanding.

 

[VashTheStampede]

All this would be avoided if y'all would just fully trust Vash

 

[Ben]

If Benzine didn't fully trust Vash, why jail him with Ben, who was believed to be a wolf? It wouldn't make sense from Benzine's perspective. And anyway, it doesn't matter. In any situation other than voting with the wolves, it doesn't matter.

I think I see what you're saying though: Why would Local vote to lynch Vash when Vash could actually be a wolf?

Because if Vash WASN'T the preacher, we wouldn't have to appeal to the SK to vote with us. We would've had the votes to brute force the lynch anyway, so why bother asking the SK to help us?

Is that what you're saying? Maybe I'm not understanding.

I did try to keep up my SK ploy throughout my jail time, by the way. I was still clinging to thinking Vash wouldn't splat me because it'd be an instant win.

 

[Ben]

All this would be avoided if y'all would just fully trust Vash

Vash, the Action Figure?

 

[VashTheStampede]

I did try to keep up my SK ploy throughout my jail time, by the way. I was still clinging to thinking Vash wouldn't splat me because it'd be an instant win.

You didn't commit enough to the bit. A bit more forceful, and I would have wavered. You've put me off balance that way in the past.

Plus I love to overthink things to my own detriment.

 

[Ben]

You didn't commit enough to the bit. A bit more forceful, and I would have wavered. You've put me off balance that way in the past.

Plus I love to overthink things to my own detriment.

I was serious about the paint can thing, though.

I opened my heart, man.

 

[Kat]

If Benzine didn't fully trust Vash, why jail him with Ben, who was believed to be a wolf? It wouldn't make sense from Benzine's perspective. And anyway, it doesn't matter. In any situation other than voting with the wolves, it doesn't matter.

I suggested it to protect him, since you said you'd kill him. Like you said, if Vash was lying, then the town was doomed anyway. May as well assume he's legit.

 

[Smacktard]

Benzine has to pick who he jails during the day, and changing the lynch target would probably change who he should jail. It makes sense.

Ahh I did miss that. Clever girl, Local.

Also I think local could have won had we kept our votes on Jawneh instead of switching to you. He would have needed to shadow early and then it would have been all up to jail choices again.

I don't see the wolves coming to Local's aid after he refused to help work together two days in a row (from our perspective) but I guess maybe out of sheer desperation we might have. Still though, no one suspected we had a third Shadow. If they did, they would've made very different choices, of course

 

[Benzine]

i had also been informed that without vash we were fucked anyway so i may as well put him in the mix

 

[Local Hero]

Typically I would fully support evils working together, but I thought I could win it all. Sorry Kelly