Zell Wolf Tough shit

[Tubby23]

So sad not being in the most active Day Phase to date

 

[Zell 17]

Well there may or may not be a shitload of people about to join you. Or maybe none!

 

[Tubby23]

Well there may or may not be a shitload of people about to join you. Or maybe none!

Let's hope they all live, that would be ideal

 

[Fool's Requiem]

Poor Raine.

Also, I hate that I didn't get to be part of the busiest day phase of the forum's history.

 

[Kat]

Yeah, that was wild!

 

[Zell 17]

And @Raine is here

 

[Raine]

Barely over a page? Definitely no S~V brigade in here.

 

[Kat]

Barely over a page? Definitely no S~V brigade in here.

I could barely keep up with the game thread. There was no time to post here.

 

[Zell 17]

I think...I THINK the wolves would have prefered to lynch Dean maybe? Game still very much in the balance I think.

 

[Raine]

I think...I THINK the wolves would have prefered to lynch Dean maybe? Game still very much in the balance I think.

I think the Avenger throws a wrench into their plans. TD's built a house of cards here, it'll topple quickly if his cover's blown. Having two unaccountable Avengers will be interesting.

Two Blind Wolves is beyond obnoxious and I'm glad I didn't spend too much time spinning webs.

 

[Zell 17]

I think the Avenger throws a wrench into their plans. TD's built a house of cards here, it'll topple quickly if his cover's blown. Having two unaccountable Avengers will be interesting.

Two Blind Wolves is beyond obnoxious and I'm glad I didn't spend too much time spinning webs.

Yeah when the wolf roles got rolled I wasn't sure if it was good for the wolves or bad. I'm still not.

 

[Raine]

For giggles, this is what I wrote up during dinner but didn't bother to post:

Thoughts on the people currently voting for me:
Alu - My gut take is that he's a wolf this time. I slotted him into the Claimed/Hinted column for Day 1 to pump up my numbers, and because he said something you could very generously consider related, however... when he drops hints, typically, it's not anywhere remotely this abstract.
Tommy Boy - Tablecidal Maniac. Haven't read much of anything for today still, so, no idea what all he's got. I had him flagged as potential Priest, Preacher isn't that far removed aesthetically?
shortkut - Made a big deal out of having not claimed, which I didn't say he did, for Day 1. Winds up being the Cupid.
Benzine - Probably as depraved as I am, but he's too shy to admit it. ...Wait, what? Uhh. I mean, Local's Bell Ringer claim has to make him feel some sort of way surely? By his comment, I assumed Flagger or Tough Guy claim.
Smacktard - So much for not thinking I was sus this game, huh? Also did not claim/hint Day 1, and really only gets a pass on not being specifically a wolf thanks to TD.
Jon - Been very active, obviously. Does have a claim, as he said he would prior to the game starting.

 

[Zell 17]

I think the Avenger throws a wrench into their plans. TD's built a house of cards here, it'll topple quickly if his cover's blown. Having two unaccountable Avengers will be interesting.

Two Blind Wolves is beyond obnoxious and I'm glad I didn't spend too much time spinning webs.

His plan is to only give truthful info I think. The blind wolves WOULD be Blue, so even if they are revealed he isn't necessarily outed.

 

[Raine]

The blind wolves WOULD be Blue, so even if they are revealed he isn't necessarily outed.

What? That's... ridiculous. Utterly, incomprehensibly ridiculous. It was already the strongest of the Seer roles, pro- or anti-town, because it immediately invalidates Strong Townies and Solo roles. And now it's immune to Spirit Seer?

Totally digging out quotes and tagging Kelly in the morning for post-game smack-talk.

 

[Zell 17]

What? That's... ridiculous. Utterly, incomprehensibly ridiculous. It was already the strongest of the Seer roles, pro- or anti-town, because it immediately invalidates Strong Townies and Solo roles. And now it's immune to Spirit Seer?

Totally digging out quotes and tagging Kelly in the morning for post-game smack-talk.

This was something that wasn't true originally but the GWF community had me change because:

1) The game was too hard for wolves
2) The Blind Wolf / Wolf Seer can't vote for kills, so they shouldn't get credit for them

 

[Raine]

Nothing new in here, literally just copy-pasting. And I'll take a pass on the post-game smack-talk and discussion, I think. It is what it is.

Spoiler: Last post

This take is completely off. You're vastly overestimating Blind Wolf's usefulness given the way GW plays wolf. Having a second blind wolf would be just about as useless as having a regular werewolf.

I just got done playing a game with y'all where I literally lied about my role. Tubby Boy shenanigans notwithstanding, I would have stuck to my guns. Being an also-ran on a two-a-night check is just objectively not good; I have no problem with the wolves having the Wolf Seer/Sorcerer.

The Blind wolf isn't a wolf seer. Basically all it tells the wolves is whether someone is a townie or not, they wouldn't be able to tell the difference between say a marksman or a beast hunter or a tough guy.

11. Blind Wolf
Aura: Evil
Each night can check up to two people and gather information about their role. They will be told that their target is one of the following: Villager on Random List, Villager NOT on Random List, Solo Role (Non-violent), Solo Role (Killer). Selection is made via PM at night. Cannot vote with the other wolves unless the Blind Wolf resigns their ability. Once the ability is resigned it can never return. The Blind Wolf can check, resign, and vote in the same night.

That's a seer lol

It's a weak seer, but you're not going to agree.

It should be obvious to wolves by Night 3 at latest who all the players are, even without a Blind Wolf, as long as they have one seer that doesn't get killed.

I'm iffy on providing the wolves the distinction between "Guaranteed" and "Possible" townies, even. It gives them complete clairvoyance for 2 people per night. Possibly in addition to a third, if the otherwise worthless role of Berserk had random'd into Wolf Seer. ...Or, Baphomet forbid, rolled into a second Blind Wolf.

The issue with the RK isn't that the wolves will find out their role by Night 3 -- it's a question of timing: when should the wolves try to get them killed? How can they initiate that lynch?

Blind Wolf serving as a hard counter for Illusionist is fine, in theory. But in the wider context of that thing being a possible wolf role with other types of RKs? Ehh... I'm not feeling it.

I'm trying not to change a rule during the game unless it's game breaking.

The one I did change midgame was the wolf seer order. I changed it so the wolf seer checks before the Illusionist disguises. The reason was if I made the wolf seer wait until after the Illu made their choice, it's possible that the Illu could wait until the very end of the phase to decide. In that case, the wolves would have no ability to make an informed choice on who to kill because they wouldn't get their wolf seer results in time before they had to choose a person to kill. That to me was game breaking, so I swapped it.

I would hazard that this makes the Blind Wolf massively overpowered, though. There's no possible way for the Independents to hide or pursue their goals; by Night 4 there's a near-100% likelihood that the wolves know the correct identity of every living players. The rationale for the Spirit Seer should apply to the Blind Wolf; the Aura Seer and Wolf Seer/Sorcerer can be the speedy variant.

If this change happened after Fool's Requiem was snapped, it also had an extraordinarily high probability of dooming TD.

You're listing all of the benefits of the BW, but none of its drawbacks. There is almost no need for the BW to know the RK early into the game, and any game with a single regular Wolf Seer would have probably deduced it by Day 3 at latest anyway. BW's importance drops exponentially as the game goes on, but a Wolf Seer stays relevant for much longer. And not having a firm view of non-random roles makes it harder to pick your targets if you don't seer a strong role. Past night 1, we had a team of virtually useless wolves (power-wise).

By the second night we had seen 4 regular townie roles and 0 anything else.

Raine is assuming we'd have nailed the RK or strong roles by then. But all we had was useless "they're townies that may or may not be able to kill you if you kill them" information.

Nonono, I need you guys to hold. I reemphasize: I'm not talking about this game.

I'm talking about Blind Wolf as it exists now and would potentially exist in future games.

I understand that, here, Blind Wolf loses value because 1) there were only 2 Strong Townies, one of which outed themselves immediately and the other on Day 2, 2) there was a very obvious Solo (Non-Killer), and 3) you had determined through your own skill who the Solo (Killer) was. I get all that. But that will not always be the case.

Further, I already pointed out that only the Jailer existing (and, again, they immediately died lol) for protection invalidates Berserk. I didn't point out, but do acknowledge, that Shaman was worthless because it only had Detective - which died Night 0 lol - to play footsie with. I understand your arguments, I get your points, I completely agree. It is what I was going on about last game where I got railroaded before even seeing the thread.

But that's a different (set of) problem(s). Consider how Blind Wolf would work in other scenarios, with different role lists. That's where I'm arguing from. The wolves need a win badly, insofar that they need a buff and the town needs a huge nerf, but I simply don't think a role like this gets us closer to that.

 

[Fool's Requiem]

people are cheating?!

for shame

 

[Zell 17]

people are cheating?!

for shame

No I don’t think so but I wanted to get ahead of it

 

[Zell 17]

@GwJumpman has hopped in

 

[GwJumpman]

mama miaaaaaaaaaa

 

[GwJumpman]

Ope nope, just looked at day 2. So then, did wolves swipe at me night 1 or did I inadvertently save the corruptor?

I tried to kill you both days lol. First night I randomly picked you and was super confused at first when you didn't die (you were protected) so I doubled down

 

[Raposuh]

Very awkward that I protected you night one lol

 

[GwJumpman]

LOL

 

[Kat]

Kat's was pretty obtuse, and maybe not even intentional

where do you think I hinted? It wasn't intentional.

I haven’t read the posts in here as I have only just woken up and it’s Saturday, my sleep in day - so I’m going to have the nap I take after I wake up.

Do you think he's being snarky or serious here? Because I do that nearly every Saturday.

 

[Raine]

where do you think I hinted? It wasn't intentional.

Definitely wasn't intentional. But this:

Same strategy as always.

Except the game you hosted.

Let's not do that.

So... role claiming? We could kinda do what Kelly had suggested before and just claim strong/regular, but we're down to two strong, so that seems like a good way to get the strong villagers killed. Plus a lot of innocent people didn't cooperate last time so it kinda backfired.

Can everyone post who they think is innocent and they would NOT want to lynch, and we see who nobody thinks is innocent (besides themselves) by process of elimination?

Unless something has happened today - I MEAN THERE ARE 20 FUCKING PAGES SOME STUFF HAD TO HAVE HAPPENED - GwJumpman is the only person left alive that has not so much as hinted at their role or otherwise vouched for by someone who has.

Kat's was pretty obtuse, and maybe not even intentional, so that may shed some small light on how crafty at least one of the wolves are. Or they just took aim at random or some shit IDK.

Read(s) a lot like a Strong Villager having some second thoughts about their plan in public and wanting some reassurance. Unfortunately directed at one of the people that would definitely pick up on it, who was partnered with the person that originally deployed the strategy.

I wanted the town to be aware of that.

The reality is far less exciting - the wolves just surgically excised all of the Strong Villagers with their 5 checks per night - but I didn't know that at the time and it's the same result, functionally. TD was the one that caused the Corruptor fever dream, and his cohorts all did in fact vote for me.

I never have too too many posts in a thread, so it's unfortunate that the town didn't/hasn't gone digging.

Do you think he's being snarky or serious here? Because I do that nearly every Saturday.

I would hope he's serious. What good even are Saturdays without sleeping in and/or extra naps?

 

[Kat]

Read(s) a lot like a Strong Villager having some second thoughts about their plan in public and wanting some reassurance. Unfortunately directed at one of the people that would definitely pick up on it, who was partnered with the person that originally deployed the strategy.

I would've posted that regardless of my role. I was more pushing TD to outline a specific plan because he seemed to be intentionally vague about what the town should do. We literally couldn't do the strategy we always did because the rules were intentionally changed to prevent us from doing so, so it seemed like a weird thing for him to say. He's smarter than that.

But like you said, he's good at picking up on things like that, so maybe it wasn't the best approach.

 

[Raine]

We literally couldn't do the strategy we always did because the rules were intentionally changed to prevent us from doing so, so it seemed like a weird thing for him to say. He's smarter than that.

He absolutely is, so when he doubles down on dubious premises - that might be his tell.

With your post, though, it's not so much what you said or suggested as much as it is how you suggested it. Like, this is more of a Vibes™ thing than a hard science, but:

So... role claiming? We could kinda do what Kelly had suggested before and just claim strong/regular, but we're down to two strong, so that seems like a good way to get the strong villagers killed. Plus a lot of innocent people didn't cooperate last time so it kinda backfired.

So role claiming? We could do what Kelly suggested before and just claim strong/regular, but we're down to two strong and a lot of people didn't cooperate last time.

Say the same thing, read entirely differently. If that makes sense? Can view it as a confidence thing too, especially if you narrow your focus to something simple like using "kinda" twice.

Last game we had people accidentally revealing their roles because the word is somewhere in their mind and they gravitated towards certain images/references over others. Also, y'know, just pure coincidences. Definitely not a science.

 

[Raine]

Poking my head into the thread:

I jumped off Raine at the last second because her comment in the literal last minute convinced me we had fucked up. If more of us would have done the same thing, she'd still be alive. So don't throw that shit in my face.

Nah, the only way what I was doing works - independent of the wolves already knowing I was a Strong Villager - is if the town freezes or lynches Dean. The entire idea was that...

Without voting history I'm, like, completely useless.

...if I defend myself or self-preserve in any way, it gives away the game. So once I posted, I had to die. One way or another.

That's my take, anyway. In another game with another assortment of wolves and all that.

The schtick this time was that I'm useless without my ace (voting history, which hey - makeshift Librarian claim mayhaps? Wink wink nudge nudge), but my role certainly isn't. ...I do dumb shit all the time to humor myself, don't mind me.

 

[Raine]

It's me again, all alooone in the voiiid~

I still am not a fan of how Dean was basically holding us hostage and openly willing to kill a townie.

There's no way he's that spiteful right? HAS to be Wolf Avenger? If he's even that..

True story: I was originally going to play into the Corruptor accusation a little bit, then propose forming an alliance with the town to kill my target in exchange for safely erasing theirs. It's never been in the game before, so I was going to BS my way through an explanation of how that specific job negates things. Maybe as a countermeasure to not learning the identity of its victims (which is a super strange and possibly bad choice, BTW, very unappealing SK role). So I asked Zell if, since the Berserk Werewolf can brutally murder Tough Guy (and probably the likes of Bodyguard), if that meant the ultimate defense worked as well.

The scenario in my head is this: If the (Wolf) Avenger is imprisoned, and executed while in prison, it should from a logistical perspective mean that there would be no avenging. You'd have to 1) survive execution and 2) escape prison while mortally wounded!

Zell shot me down though and says the (Wolf) Avenger would still kill their target, so I nixed that idea.

So then I did the next best thing (because, sorry love, I was not imprisoning Jon lol): I was going to imprison GwJumpman and give the message "tell me ur role or perish." If he told me he was a wolf or a townie of any sort, I was going to execute him. But if he was the Corruptor and admitted that to me... I was going to set him free on the condition he murder you.

 

[GwJumpman]

Being the Corrupter was pretty goofy. There's no chance I can actually win so for me the objective was basically to make kills on people whose roles were in question so that nobody could verify who they were. I was killed early but it was for the best because I was going to target Kut anyway so that nobody could know he was Cupid, but seeing what the roles were (and how I can't tell shit about how people post) I was probably going to end up just killing a bunch of townies when I would've preferred to kill a mix

 

[GwJumpman]

I also totally would've colluded if that situation happened too

 

[Raine]

(and how I can't tell shit about how people post)

This is definitely the hardest thing about the game for newcomers. But to be fair, it does work both ways - none of us really know your style or approach either, so it may be easier to persuade folks to focus on other targets.

It'll come in time, then you can properly rage with the rest of us.

 

[Zell 17]

It's me again, all alooone in the voiiid~


True story: I was originally going to play into the Corruptor accusation a little bit, then propose forming an alliance with the town to kill my target in exchange for safely erasing theirs. It's never been in the game before, so I was going to BS my way through an explanation of how that specific job negates things. Maybe as a countermeasure to not learning the identity of its victims (which is a super strange and possibly bad choice, BTW, very unappealing SK role). So I asked Zell if, since the Berserk Werewolf can brutally murder Tough Guy (and probably the likes of Bodyguard), if that meant the ultimate defense worked as well.

The scenario in my head is this: If the (Wolf) Avenger is imprisoned, and executed while in prison, it should from a logistical perspective mean that there would be no avenging. You'd have to 1) survive execution and 2) escape prison while mortally wounded!

Zell shot me down though and says the (Wolf) Avenger would still kill their target, so I nixed that idea.

So then I did the next best thing (because, sorry love, I was not imprisoning Jon lol): I was going to imprison GwJumpman and give the message "tell me ur role or perish." If he told me he was a wolf or a townie of any sort, I was going to execute him. But if he was the Corruptor and admitted that to me... I was going to set him free on the condition he murder you.

The Corruptor works best when there is an assumption that the Fool can be in play. The hide roles and have a UNK aura = completely indistinguishable from a fool.

 

[Raine]

The Corruptor works best when there is an assumption that the Fool can be in play. The hide roles and have a UNK aura = completely indistinguishable from a fool.

The Unknown aura is a tricky mistress to be sure.

Signed, someone with perpetually Unknown aura.

 

[Zell 17]

Especially if the Corruptor manages to wipe out the Fool. Then the town never gets confirmation that the Fool is dead = every lynch fraught with peril.

 

[Raine]

Current game commentary: It seems like a lot of people actually have very similar suspect lists. If TD were a townie, he'd be pointing that out and pressuring the passive/pensive town into action. But since he isn't, he just keeps doubling down on Dean. Who, for his part, I pray makes a wise choice with his target.

In related news, Local and Smacktard are being way too obvious in a way that "we were both checked by TD" can't adequately cover.

Especially if the Corruptor manages to wipe out the Fool. Then the town never gets confirmation that the Fool is dead = every lynch fraught with peril.

Yeah, that's basically what happened with Local in the Illusionist game. With the caveat that we had me as a Ritualist and the wolves had already scanned him with the Blind Wolf ability, so eventually everyone found out.

I think the problem as-is is that the Corruptor won't know either, and all of our Fools to date have been excessively obvious, so it would be hard to take advantage of in practice.

 

[Raine]

(I'm always behind on the thread lol)

@shortkut Should I be worried about the sheer agreeance you just had with me? Not that I want to cast doubt, but I haven't exactly proven myself as others have liked to point out lol.

Don't get me wrong. I'm grateful it feels like at least one person believes me...

Fuck that shit, Jon. You da MVP.

TURN THAT CONFIDENCE DIAL UP TO 11

GO GO GO

 

[Fool's Requiem]

over 500 posts. I can't keep up with that. I can't imagine how sus I would come off because I wouldn't ever be able to keep up with their rate of posting.

 

[Raine]

over 500 posts. I can't keep up with that.

I read the entirety of Day 1, but yeah - for Day 2 I basically only Ctrl+F'd certain words or phrases (so my name, Auntie Derp, vote) up to like the halfway point. It's a matter of picking and choosing battles, or alternatively doing your own thing and not really concerning yourself with the fluff. Even if I wasn't getting home at 6pm most of this week, it's just not feasible.

 

[Zell 17]

GWF Wolf - Zell's Version VI Night 3 / Day 3

Night 1 Action Result Ben Farmer Nothing Smacktard Aura Seer Check Ben Good Ants! Preacher Watch shortkut Added Vote (2 total) Holly Judge Nothing Tubby23 Shadow Wolf Nothing shortkut Spirit Seer Check Ben and Smacktard Dead canadaguy Flagger Redirect from canadaguy to Ben...

gwforums.com

Here is where we talked about making wolf seers show blue

 

[Raine]

That's not really much of a discussion and was talking strictly about the actual Wolf Seer role, not a blanket statement for all types of Seer-type wolves. This would have also happened prior to the Blind Wolf being added to the Role Dictionary, it looks like.

There's also a distinct lack of, uh, me in that thread. Took a couple to remember why. Here's a relevant thing:

Spirit Seer has no hard counter

No counter at all, zero plausible deniability

If you red, you dead. If not immediately, the next day

Multiple Spirit Seers covers the land in death

I do like there being some element of risk and hard counters in the game as a general practice. I believe (and subsequently dug up ^ after writing this) I was on record in the past saying that there being 0% chance of escaping Spirit Seer is probably not the best, which having town roles show up as red, some of the Solo Killer methods, the Wolf Seer change, et al, do address.

Having this apply to the Blind Wolf is far too much though. Just the Wolf Seer and Sorcerer is fine.

 

[Raine]

On the subject of this game: Pretty sure the wolves are officially toast now.

Long cons only work if, well, they're long - if you start them early and keep them going. It's not really possible to segue into them midstream and have people buy them, so my notes from Day 1 (they weren't posted):

No claims:
GwJumpman
shortkut - Late Marksman claim?
Local (TD claims not wolf, possible Solo)
Smacktard (TD claims not wolf, possible Solo)

Shows... exactly what you would think it would show. And you can't continue a blue-only Spirit Seer spree forever until you invariably wind up with my tilt as shown above. This would be the inverse of the Berserk Werewolf showing up with zero protector roles, and I don't think that's going to be believable. Maybe, but... I don't think so.

Losing Vash and Alu would severely harm the town, especially if Alu has a villager tagged.

But the wolves now have a Doctor they must kill (or avoid/manipulate forever), 2 Avengers they must avoid (or mislead), a Violinist that will out them and must be removed tonight (...though I'm not sure Jon realizes that?), and a Seer Apprentice that must die immediately afterwards. Ain't gonna happen.


Once more: Major props to @Jon on his deductive reasoning despite having no idea what any of these roles even are. Good work, as always, from @A Subcontractor's Ass for laying role interactions and possibilities out for the town too.

The wolves are just straight-up getting outplayed here, which isn't a dig and simply means people are getting better/shaking off the dust. And that can only be a good thing.

 

[Fool's Requiem]

I gave up. Looked at the cheat sheet. Was right about Kelly being wolf from the start.

 

[Zell 17]

I think there were two calculation errors that are going to end up really costing the wolves here:

1) They guessed the couple incorrectly
2) They were worried about Jawneh having a killing role

 

[Fool's Requiem]

should have kept me alive

 

[Zell 17]

@Smacktard is here by the way

 

[Fool's Requiem]

sup kelly

 

[Tubby23]

Not Kelly!!!

 

[Tubby23]

What happened this day phase? Can someone TLDR for me. I had a day off screen time yesterday

 

[Raine]

What happened this day phase? Can someone TLDR for me. I had a day off screen time yesterday

For the most part the town waffled between voting for two different wolves, while the wolves themselves ran interference.

Also the Solo Killer got ganked, wolves got their kill blocked, and the Cupid couple has been cleared of all charges while simultaneously remaining unknown to both the town and the wolves.