Harris picks Walz for VP

[Ants!]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4789021-kamala-harris-vp-tim-walz-minnesota/

 

[Fool's Requiem]

Gonna Walz into the White House.

 

[VashTheStampede]

 

[VashTheStampede]

First time in a while there's a politician I legitimately like running for an office that I can vote for.

 

[Jon]

I don't like it.

Kelly and Shapiro give you boosts in two very strong battleground states. Walz gives you... Minnesota... who has chosen a Republican once in the last what? 60 years?

This is a bad pick to try and get some grassroots Republicans to peel away in a vain effort because he's a relative unknown. I think this was the poorest of the three choices, even if I understand her reasoning.

 

[Ants!]

First time in a while there's a politician I legitimately like running for an office that I can vote for.

I know how badly you wanted it to be a white guy. So happy for you!

 

[Ants!]

I don't like it.

Kelly and Shapiro give you boosts in two very strong battleground states. Walz gives you... Minnesota... who has chosen a Republican once in the last what? 60 years?

This is a bad pick to try and get some grassroots Republicans to peel away in a vain effort because he's a relative unknown. I think this was the poorest of the three choices, even if I understand her reasoning.

Shapiro would have alienated the left. He's also pro-Israel. So hell no to everything you just said.

This is awesome.

 

[Jon]

Shapiro would have alienated the left. He's also pro-Israel. So hell no to everything you just said.

This is awesome.

Dude, I wanted Kelly, I said that weeks ago. But Shapiro does give you a boost in a battleground state. That's not debatable. Same with Kelly. Who has a reputation in stark contrast to Vance.

Walz... doesn't. He was picked almost certainly because he grew up in Nebraska and owns a gun. She's clearly trying to pander to moderate Republicans who she thinks she can peel off Trump. Which I don't think is wise. There's nothing INHERENTLY wrong with Walz. But Minnesota and Walz was not the best choice, in my personal opinion.

 

[Fool's Requiem]

Politicians shouldn't be picked solely to win an election. They need to have good values.

 

[Jon]

To be CLEAR... I think he's the weakest of the three politically standing in terms of what he brings to the ticket itself.

In terms of who he is and what he stand for, I do like him. I like what he's done in Minnesota overall and how he supports a woman's right to choose and the LGBTQ+ communities. I question NONE of that and respect him for it.

 

[VashTheStampede]

I don't like it.

Kelly and Shapiro give you boosts in two very strong battleground states. Walz gives you... Minnesota... who has chosen a Republican once in the last what? 60 years?

Yeah it was real dumb when Biden picked a VP from California.

This isn't a video game. Just because you pick someone from a state that doesn't automatically give you the state.

This is a bad pick to try and get some grassroots Republicans to peel away in a vain effort because he's a relative unknown. I think this was the poorest of the three choices, even if I understand her reasoning.

Have you heard Walz speak?

If anything this choice was the move to make sure you don't alienate members of the left by making the cynical wonk pick.

Going with Shapiro or Kelly would have been the Hilary move.

 

[Jon]

Politicians shouldn't be picked solely to win an election. They need to have good values.

I agree on usual terms. But with who the Republicans are trotting out, they won't win on values, they'll win on policies. I hope I feel differently in a couple weeks. But I'd like to see him in a debate with Vance before I feel comfortable. His values are nearly opposite of Vance in every matter. how he handles that will speak volumes.

I don't like it, but I don't have to. I have to tolerate it and hope for the best, and I'm sure it'll be fine.

 

[Jon]

You all don't have to attack me because I don't like the pick... ffs... it's not my pick. You can all like him if you want. Sheesh...

 

[VashTheStampede]

Walz... doesn't. He was picked almost certainly because he grew up in Nebraska and owns a gun.

Used to have an A rating from the NRA.

Then after one of the countless school shootings in this country, his daughter begged him to reassess his position.

Now the NRA hates him.

 

[VashTheStampede]

To be CLEAR... I think he's the weakest of the three politically standing in terms of what he brings to the ticket itself.

Put a microphone in front of him and I think he does the most damage to the opposition.

 

[VashTheStampede]

They're gonna come at him and try to call him a radical leftist, bet on it.

 

[VashTheStampede]

 

[Ants!]

To be CLEAR... I think he's the weakest of the three politically standing in terms of what he brings to the ticket itself.

In terms of who he is and what he stand for, I do like him. I like what he's done in Minnesota overall and how he supports a woman's right to choose and the LGBTQ+ communities. I question NONE of that and respect him for it.

She's polling better in the state now anyway. And are you going to just completely disregard the point of alienating the left? I would never do it but there are plenty who feel so strongly that they would stay home on election day or go third party to make a point. That would do FAR more damage. Right now she has momentum, and this keeps that momentum going or maybe even builds it up more. Kelly would have been okay too, but Sharpio would have turned momentum into divisiveness that only hurts the party at a time when it's a statistical coin flip.

"That's not debatable."

 

[Ancle Suck]

Dude, I wanted Kelly, I said that weeks ago. But Shapiro does give you a boost in a battleground state. That's not debatable. Same with Kelly. Who has a reputation in stark contrast to Vance.

Walz... doesn't. He was picked almost certainly because he grew up in Nebraska and owns a gun. She's clearly trying to pander to moderate Republicans who she thinks she can peel off Trump. Which I don't think is wise. There's nothing INHERENTLY wrong with Walz. But Minnesota and Walz was not the best choice, in my personal opinion.

It is debatable. It's not proven that the VP pick has any sway on bringing their own state in modern politics. So the debate is right there.

Waltz is more progressive than Shapiro by a wide margin at this point, so they're not trying to peel off moderate Republicans.


Also he makes good dunks:

 

[Ancle Suck]

This is a bigger sign to get voters back from the I/P front. If Omar is for the ticket, the young and pro Palestine voters will be more amenable to it.

 

[Ants!]

Trumps shooting and Biden's debate performance are like distant memories.

 

[Fool's Requiem]

They're gonna come at him and try to call him a radical leftist, bet on it.

Politician: Suggests background checks in gun purchases.

Morons: THEY'RE TRYING TO TAKE PUR GUNS!!!!!1

 

[Ancle Suck]

On IVF.

 

[Ants!]

On IVF.

Going to make me cry. Asshole.

 

[Ants!]

Asshole.

Hey look a name change!

 

[VashTheStampede]

 

[dimmerwit]

Might be useful for dealing with the real turkey JD Vance.

Wonder if Vance will even bother with a debate.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Might be useful for dealing with the real turkey JD Vance.

Wonder if Vance will even bother with a debate.

Vance is the type to think he's got the advantage.

 

[VashTheStampede]

 

[Rachel]

I don't have many thoughts about this right now, because I need to learn more about him. I do not believe this is a "misstep." A very "safe" pick.

Without learning more, in many ways this reminds me of the Tim Kaine pick. Anyone even remember him? What is he even up to now? (Literally just had to lookup how to spell his name, that's how little I remember)

Two thoughts though:

I am terrified that Minnesota was supposedly close, was supposedly "at play." Minnesota famously didn't go for Reagan when everyone else did. It is supposed to be a blue stronghold. What's happening there?

Also, I see the VP as a possible future candidate. I think that is a dead end here, if she wins and goes two terms. I see the VP as an avenue to gain national recognition for the Dems to shore up experienced candidates. So that's a little disappointing, for me.

But it's whatever. I like the Midwest attention. And I want her to win. I have never heard of this person until now. This is only happening because of what happened to Biden. Also, thank goodness this doesn't take a Senator away.

 

[Ancle Suck]

Minnesota wasn't in play and she didn't pick him to win it. Biden was polling not at great there. Harris was polling fine there.

He's also much more charismatic than Kaine (who is still a sitting senator). And the "safe" choice was Shapiro.

 

[dimmerwit]

Minnesota only went for Mondale over Reagan because he was from there.

It's not quite a stronghold, although it is the safest of the "blue wall" rustbelt states and the only one that voted for Clinton. But results in those states do seem to be pretty strongly correlated and the hope will be that someone who can appeal in Minnesota can appeal in the others.

 

[Rachel]

I am not so sure about that. He's Jewish. The whole Israel/Palestine thing. He could be seen as more "elite." You could already attack her for being San Fran elite. Edit: Also, supposedly not dealing with sexual harassment properly (not saying that was true or not true but it was noise)

Minnesota was listed in that list of states from the other thread when getting vote feedback. She had less favorability there than Michigan, and Michigan is supposedly at play or was at play. 51% favorability.

 

[shortkut]

Looks like Trump is finally going to get his Wal(z)

 

[Ancle Suck]

I am not so sure about that. He's Jewish. The whole Israel/Palestine thing. He could be seen as more "elite." You could already attack her for being San Fran elite. Edit: Also, supposedly not dealing with sexual harassment properly (not saying that was true or not true but it was noise)

Minnesota was listed in that list of states from the other thread when getting vote feedback. She had less favorability there than Michigan, and Michigan is supposedly at play or was at play. 51% favorability.

Every single poll of Harris in Minnesota was her cruising to victory: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

Shapiro was the "safe pick" because of PA and people thinking it would swing the state. Walz being from a non-swing state (but still midwestern) is riskier in the political think tank world. He's the better pick in terms of having the "right feel" for a candidate:

Looks like Trump is finally going to get his Wal(z)

Harris is better with Walz.

 

[Ancle Suck]

Omar and Manchin...on the same page?

 

[Ants!]

 

[Rachel]

Every single poll of Harris in Minnesota was her cruising to victory: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

Shapiro was the "safe pick" because of PA and people thinking it would swing the state. Walz being from a non-swing state (but still midwestern) is riskier in the political think tank world. He's the better pick in terms of having the "right feel" for a candidate:




Harris is better with Walz.

I understand all of that. But a Dem stronghold should not have a tossup of favorability. And I still disagree that he (Shapiro) was safe by getting Pen. He had some skeletons that were surfacing. That could have cost her elsewhere.

Edit: The fact that they even had Minnesota in the same graphic worried me a lot. I also want to know what he was doing during Black Lives Matter protests. At this point, I do not know. I am sure that will be a possible attack avenue.

 

[Ancle Suck]

I understand all of that. But a Dem stronghold should not have a tossup of favorability. And I still disagree that he (Shapiro) was safe by getting Pen. He had some skeletons that were surfacing. That could have cost her elsewhere.

I agree that he wasn't going to necessarily bring PA any more than Walz would. But "conventional wisdom" is what we're talking about here in terms of "safe pick" or not.


Also favorability doesn't matter nearly as much as the actual votes. If she's consistently polling between +6 and +10 ahead of Trump, the state is by no definition "in play"

 

[dimmerwit]

Minnesota isn't a Democratic stronghold. It's a lean, probably within reason for Trump if his overall position improves but one where the Democrats have a decent polling lead and Biden won by 7. Historical election results are not always the most useful marker.

In 1996 West Virginia was more Democratic than California. In 2016 Trump won there by 42%.

From the founding of the Republican party and their first presidential election in 1856 until 1988, Vermont voted Republican every single time except in 1964. The state that produced Bernie Sanders.

 

[Tommy Boy]

 

[Ants!]

View attachment 19011

To the window,
To the Walz...

 

[Ancle Suck]

Minnesota isn't a Democratic stronghold. It's a lean, probably within reason for Trump if his overall position improves but one where the Democrats have a decent polling lead and Biden won by 7. Historical election results are not always the most useful marker.

In 1996 West Virginia was more Democratic than California. In 2016 Trump won there by 42%.

From the founding of the Republican party and their first presidential election in 1856 until 1988, Vermont voted Republican every single time except in 1964. The state that produced Bernie Sanders.

The modern political map didn't start to take form until the 90s and 2000s. You need to take a look at how things have been going since then to see how certain states tend to vote. Even with that, Minnesota hasn't gone Red since 1972. It's the longest continuous Democratic voting state and it's been over 50 years since it voted Republican.

 

[Ancle Suck]

Just because I had this thread open: Excuse me admins, this name breaks rule #2 in name changes for me.

There are only 2 rules to keep track of.

 

[Ants!]

Speaking of number two...

 

[Fool's Requiem]

 

[dimmerwit]

The modern political map didn't start to take form until the 90s and 2000s. You need to take a look at how things have been going since then to see how certain states tend to vote. Even with that, Minnesota hasn't gone Red since 1972. It's the longest continuous Democratic voting state and it's been over 50 years since it voted Republican.

Well yes, my point was that those long term trends weren't useful. MN's long unbroken streak is largely the result of Mondale being a former senator from the state and therefore managing to leverage that into a tiny win over Reagan in 1984. If Mondale was from Wisconsin then he loses the state no question.

Since 2000 Minnesota has gone Democratic every time but by a margin on average of 5.41%. Bush lost by less than 2.5% in 2000 and Trump by less than 2% in 2016. Compare that to Massachusetts with an average of 27.01% and a minimum of 23.2%.

 

[Ancle Suck]

Well yes, my point was that those long term trends weren't useful. MN's long unbroken streak is largely the result of Mondale being a former senator from the state and therefore managing to leverage that into a tiny win over Reagan in 1984. If Mondale was from Wisconsin then he loses the state no question.

Since 2000 Minnesota has gone Democratic every time but by a margin on average of 5.41%. Bush lost by less than 2.5% in 2000 and Trump by less than 2% in 2016. Compare that to Massachusetts with an average of 27.01% and a minimum of 23.2%.

Well yes, MA is definitely not going R any time soon, much more so than MN.

The point is this though: even in elections where the Republicans won, the best they could do was get within 2% of winning the state. North Carolina is closer to switching Blue than MN is to switching Red.

 

[VashTheStampede]

And I still disagree that he (Shapiro) was safe by getting Pen. He had some skeletons that were surfacing.

Almost literally...

Edit: The fact that they even had Minnesota in the same graphic worried me a lot. I also want to know what he was doing during Black Lives Matter protests.

He resisted sending in the National Guard as long as possible because he feared it would escalate the issue. The right thinks he sucks because he waited so long. The left thinks he sucks because he eventually called them in.

As I understand it, he's the one that appointed Keith Ellison to prosecute Derek Chauvin.

 

[canadaguy]

Yeah that's the face of a dude who just finished fucking the couch