Zell Wolf GWF Wolf - Zell's Version Day 2/Night 3

[TD]

I vehemently disagree. the day 1 activities lead to 90% of our information. NONE of the seer roles give clear enough answers on who's who except for the wolf seer.

the problem is that in this game of deception and lies, so many people are staggeringly afraid to lie. and that's how the wolves kept losing. I survived and help with town in the first game with nothing but truth. and I've so far survived in this game starting off with a bold faced lie.

people need to find the strat for the game and I promise you it will be very different.

I've been getting confused with all the people telling the TRUTH.

imagine the chaos if every one starts lying?

I'm not just talking seers.
The town is littered with ways stacked against the wolves. The jailer in particular is a pretty ridiculous role with everything they can do, the medium probably shouldn't be able to ressurect, the tough guy has role reveal too but didn't need to use it.

The only reason you survived was because you were the gunner and somebody else wasn't. Tommy took his shot at you and many people wanted you taken out.

Ants tried to lie and it was a reasonable one but because the town roles were so stacked, he got caught.

 

[TD]

The wolves literally killed 2 aura seers and here we are in day 2 with 2 aura seers alive. lol

 

[A Punched Face]

Lol this is the conversation we're having and we still haven't even taken out a single wolf.

 

[Cole]

I'm not just talking seers.
The town is littered with ways stacked against the wolves. The jailer in particular is a pretty ridiculous role with everything they can do, the medium probably shouldn't be able to ressurect, the tough guy has role reveal too but didn't need to use it.

The only reason you survived was because you were the gunner and somebody else wasn't. Tommy took his shot at you and many people wanted you taken out.

Ants tried to lie and it was a reasonable one but because the town roles were so stacked, he got caught.

the jailer can not confirm who their protected target is.

the tough guy finds out the PLAYER that attacked, but they could be a townie too, he doesn't get confirmation.

I survived a normal night phase which means if they have berseker they didn't even try it on me, and if I were them, id have tried for me REGARSLESS. I'm a guaranteed townie, with zero suspicion, and a bullet in the chamber.

I should have been their only concern. even with the medium in play.

 

[TD]

the jailer can not confirm who their protected target is.

the tough guy finds out the PLAYER that attacked, but they could be a townie too, he doesn't get confirmation.

I survived a normal night phase which means if they have berseker they didn't even try it on me, and if I were them, id have tried for me REGARSLESS. I'm a guaranteed townie, with zero suspicion, and a bullet in the chamber.

I should have been their only concern. even with the medium in play.

Unless the Jailer knows a revealed townie like a Priest or Gunner. Just like it was used as a role reveal here.

If a wolf attacks who the tough guy is protecting, the tough guy gets the identity of the lowest ranked wolf.

There is a 12.5% chance they even have a berserker, so they probably didn't.

It was obvious you'd be protected.

Why should you have been their only concern?

With or without you, between the 3 seers and the other roles we had, the town was winning this one.

 

[Cole]

Unless the Jailer knows a revealed townie like a Priest or Gunner. Just like it was used as a role reveal here.

If a wolf attacks who the tough guy is protecting, the tough guy gets the identity of the lowest ranked wolf.

There is a 12.5% chance they even have a berserker, so they probably didn't.

It was obvious you'd be protected.

Why should you have been their only concern?

With or without you, between the 3 seers and the other roles we had, the town was winning this one.

I should have been their only concern becsuse I am a certified townie. the only valuable townie to the wolves is a townie that they can cast suspicion on

and they could not cast one iota on me. which means it narrows the field for every one, and they can take my word as gospel.

the same would be true for ANY verified townie

 

[TD]

I should have been their only concern becsuse I am a certified townie. the only valuable townie to the wolves is a townie that they can cast suspicion on

and they could not cast one iota on me. which means it narrows the field for every one, and they can take my word as gospel.

the same would be true for ANY verified townie

But you were protected and obviously so. In the event you were protected by the tough guy, they're down one wolf AND don't kill you.

If anything, the RK should've taken you out or tried to (and maybe they did), since as the gunner you were the single biggest threat to them.

Where I will agree with you is that everyone was so afraid to lie. Everyone could literally be taken at face value and I was not expecting that which is why I was so suspicious of cg.

 

[Cole]

you still don't know they didn't have a berseker

 

[TD]

you still don't know they didn't have a berseker

Again - there's a 12.5% chance they do.

So it's incredibly unlikely. If they do have a berserker and didn't target you and use it?

Yeah, bad move but we'll know soon.

 

[canadaguy]

But you were protected and obviously so. In the event you were protected by the tough guy, they're down one wolf AND don't kill you.

If anything, the RK should've taken you out or tried to (and maybe they did), since as the gunner you were the single biggest threat to them.

Where I will agree with you is that everyone was so afraid to lie. Everyone could literally be taken at face value and I was not expecting that which is why I was so suspicious of cg.

Us asking the gunner to take Cole out because we figured he was RK should have been a sign neither of us was the wolf seer though.

Like I said, if he hadnt said he had 100% certainty of a wolf identity, I wouldn't have really pushed on anything.

Once he said that he was also certain of the gunners identity and that the gunner for sure wasn't going to go after him, it started to open things up a bit.

We could say Cole was lying about his claim that he'd be voting for a certified wolf, but it got people talking and sussed out the fool.

 

[A Punched Face]

I'm just sad that I never got a chance to lie about my role this time.

 

[TD]

At the end of the day - I'm just disappointed the game is already over after one full day and a tiny fraction of another.

I enjoy the back and forth, the investigating, and analyzing.

 

[A Punched Face]

At the end of the day - I'm just disappointed the game is already over after one full day and a tiny fraction of another.

I enjoy the back and forth, the investigating, and analyzing.

I mean you're averaging like 100 posts a day with 90% of them in this game, so yeah.

 

[canadaguy]

At the end of the day - I'm just disappointed the game is already over after one full day and a tiny fraction of another.

I enjoy the back and forth, the investigating, and analyzing.

I think we had enough of that on day 1 to cover many full games

 

[Cole]

Again - there's a 12.5% chance they do.

So it's incredibly unlikely. If they do have a berserker and didn't target you and use it?

Yeah, bad move but we'll know soon.

wanna tell me the chance of 3 aura seers too?

 

[Zell 17]

Stick with it guys. I mentioned this in the dead chat but Cole figured out the meta for the town in the first game and the evils haven’t quite caught up yet.

I’m worried if I beef up evils / nerf the town that it will be a wipeout for the evils once they figure out the meta.

Want to mention that these setups have been played hundreds of thousands of times. I can make the next setup a little more wolf friendly but don’t wanna go crazy overboard just quite yet.

 

[Zell 17]

wanna tell me the chance of 3 aura seers too?

Around 1%

 

[Cole]

Around 1%

but definitely no berserker! and definitely a valid metric of balance.

 

[A Punched Face]

Stick with it guys. I mentioned this in the dead chat but Cole figured out the meta for the town in the first game and the evils haven’t quite caught up yet.

I’m worried if I beef up evils / nerf the town that it will be a wipeout for the evils once they figure out the meta.

Want to mention that these setups have been played hundreds of thousands of times. I can make the next setup a little more wolf friendly but don’t wanna go crazy overboard just quite yet.

Great. So @Cole broke something that's been working fine for years. Typical Cole.

 

[TD]

wanna tell me the chance of 3 aura seers too?

That's completely independent of this.

There is still a 12.5% chance of it, which makes it unlikely. I never said impossible.

 

[Tubby23]

Vote Abstain

Vote Skip

 

[TD]

Stick with it guys. I mentioned this in the dead chat but Cole figured out the meta for the town in the first game and the evils haven’t quite caught up yet.

I’m worried if I beef up evils / nerf the town that it will be a wipeout for the evils once they figure out the meta.

Want to mention that these setups have been played hundreds of thousands of times. I can make the next setup a little more wolf friendly but don’t wanna go crazy overboard just quite yet.

This exact setup with 16 people hundreds of thousands of times?

 

[Cole]

That's completely independent of this.

There is still a 12.5% chance of it, which makes it unlikely. I never said impossible.

why is it independent?

the 1% chance happened, but you're saying the 12.5 COULD NOT have. I'm not saying one effects the other, I'm saying the 1% chance actually happened.

I've chased worse odds in poker.

 

[Cole]

Great. So @Cole broke something that's been working fine for years. Typical Cole.

 

[TD]

why is it independent?

the 1% chance happened, but you're saying the 12.5 COULD NOT have. I'm not saying one effects the other, I'm saying the 1% chance actually happened.

I've chased worse odds in poker.

Where have I said 12.5% could not have happened? I've said unlikely and probably not.

C'mon Cole. lol

 

[Zell 17]

This exact setup with 16 people hundreds of thousands of times?

Yep. Well, obviously the “randoms” are different each time. There’s an app. I’ve played like 10k games it was a problem at one point haha

 

[TD]

Yep. Well, obviously the “randoms” are different each time. There’s an app. I’ve played like 10k games it was a problem at one point haha

10k games is impressive commitment.

 

[A Punched Face]

10k games is impressive commitment.

I think you mean addiction

 

[Zell 17]

I think you mean addiction

My wife made me delete the app lol

 

[TD]

Out of curiosity for a friend..

What is the app?

 

[Zell 17]

Out of curiosity for a friend..

What is the app?

“Wolvesville”. Specifically the ranked section. Quick games will make you lose faith in the intelligence of humanity.

 

[Cole]

Where have I said 12.5% could not have happened? I've said unlikely and probably not.

C'mon Cole. lol

yes, but it's not unlikely... it's a greater than 1 in 10 chance.

meanwhile the reason you're all saying the town was over powered is as a result of a 1 in 100 chance.

 

[Zell 17]

For the next setup I’ll make it a little more challenging for the town.

 

[Raine]

I didn't read any of this afternoon's posts. So probably retreading ground, but: Another problem with balance is that it (has to, somewhat) assumes all roles are being played at a certain competency/within a skill range.

And I don't know about the rest of you, but I routinely shit the bed with power roles.

Case in point: I jailed Cole well before he shot Ryan. Because I was going to execute him.

I also originally had unlimited night skills (and only 1 message back and forth message). I was nerfed!

 

[canadaguy]

Around 1%

What were the odds they all have the same name?

 

[TD]

yes, but it's not unlikely... it's a greater than 1 in 10 chance.

meanwhile the reason you're all saying the town was over powered is as a result of a 1 in 100 chance

Having the occasional game ruined by a "1 in 100 chance" is fine if you're playing like 10k of these but in a casual environment where there's 1 (2?) per month, perhaps those game breaking chances shouldn't exist.

 

[Holly]

...just kill me.

 

[TD]

I'm not sure how many skips we are even at?

 

[Holly]

No idea. Cole is partially right, but I don't want to betray my fellow wolves.

Adieu, townsburg!

 

[Zell 17]

What were the odds they all have the same name?

0%

 

[Tubby23]

Having now had time to re-read and consider the events so far while I was asleep. I still think my read on Benzine may have been right.

As such I don't need to vote today and we just hope to god that Holly actually is a wolf. Will leave my vote as abstain and skip so that we can get on to killing the rest of the wolves tonight/next day phase.

 

[Cole]

Having the occasional game ruined by a "1 in 100 chance" is fine if you're playing like 10k of these but in a casual environment where there's 1 (2?) per month, perhaps those game breaking chances shouldn't exist.

the berserker had a 12.5 chance and that does more to balance than anything.

I don't understand why you're accepting of a 1 in 100 that we know happened or a better than 1 in 10 that you can't even confirm.

the town wasn't imbalanced. the wolves failed.

 

[Cole]

the berserker had a 12.5 chance and that does more to balance than anything.

I don't understand why you're accepting of a 1 in 100 that we know happened or a better than 1 in 10 that you can't even confirm.

the town wasn't imbalanced. the wolves failed.

but if zell wants to buff the wolves I really hope I get one.

 

[TD]

the berserker had a 12.5 chance and that does more to balance than anything.

I don't understand why you're accepting of a 1 in 100 that we know happened or a better than 1 in 10 that you can't even confirm.

the town wasn't imbalanced. the wolves failed.

So just to be clear so we can revisit when it's verified - you believe they have a berserker and just haven't used it, correct?

 

[Fool's Requiem]

I didn't read any of this afternoon's posts. So probably retreading ground, but: Another problem with balance is that it (has to, somewhat) assumes all roles are being played at a certain competency/within a skill range.

And I don't know about the rest of you, but I routinely shit the bed with power roles.

Case in point: I jailed Cole well before he shot Ryan. Because I was going to execute him.

I also originally had unlimited night skills (and only 1 message back and forth message). I was nerfed!

I protected Vash night 1 and TD night two. It didn't get me any information but they seem to have been correct protections.

 

[A Punched Face]

I protected Vash night 1 and TD night two. It didn't get me any information but they seem to have been correct protections.

You just took them out to the gym as some bros to get your lift on. Fun times were had by all.

 

[Fool's Requiem]

Gotta get TOUGH.

 

[Cole]

So just to be clear so we can revisit when it's verified - you believe they have a berserker and just haven't used it, correct?

I mean that wasn't at all my point.

my point was simply that you said a 12.5% chance was highly unlikely and a 1% chance happened. it's just odd thst you factored in the 1% chance as to why the town is over powered, while ignoring the 12.5% chance that the wolves have the most powerful tool in the game

 

[TD]

I mean that wasn't at all my point.

my point was simply that you said a 12.5% chance was highly unlikely and a 1% chance happened. it's just odd thst you factored in the 1% chance as to why the town is over powered, while ignoring the 12.5% chance that the wolves have the most powerful tool in the game

But you're jumping down my throat for saying something with a 12.5% chance is unlikely. Why?

Your need to cherry pick arguments is baffling and you're coming across as an egocentric narcissist who can't accept that the winning side had a lot in their favour this time around. Whether you are or you're just having a bad day is unclear.

Just because something with a 1% chance happened it doesn't mean that everything with a better chance happened. The fact that it happened literally has nothing to do with the fact that there is a 12.5% chance that the random is the berserker.

Also calling berserk the most powerful tool in the game is highly subjective.

 

[Tubby23]

I protected Vash night 1 and TD night two. It didn't get me any information but they seem to have been correct protections.

Hold up that's a little convenient, you've only allegedly protected people who didn't need it? And subsequently have no info to confirm??