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Zell Wolf GWF Wolf - Zell's Version Day 2/Night 3

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Cole

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aura seer said:
I was about ready to start my list and give up a bunch of my time this morning. Okay to hold off for the time being?
Click to expand...
okay so...

Cole - Confirmed gunner by gunner kill
Alu - confirmed aura seer by wolf death night 0
Medium - confirmed by speaking to dead Alu
(Good Role) - confirmed by a night 0 check from Alu
Jailer - confirmed by Coles prison sentence

but here's where it starts to get interesting...

IF canadaguy is to be believed.

canadaguy - virtually confirmed backup aura seer
TD - confirmed by canadaguy as good
not a wolf - confirmed by some sort of TD check.

...that's a potential 8 confirmed townies.

If we just out everyone, isn't... that like... close to game?
 
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canadaguy

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TD said:
So kut was an aura seer. That was some of the most irrational behaviour I've ever seen from a pro-town seer.

Wonder what our aura seer saw night 0.

Gonna think a little bit about this.
Click to expand...
I'm thinking he checked Cole night one and saw his unknown aura. Then when Cole came out saying he 100% knew who a wolf was, felt that things weren't adding up. Then his early game behaviour up until his grand reveal was so weird, figured something was up.

At least that's how I would have done it if I were in his shoes
 
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TD said:
Unless there's overlap.
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I suppose that's true. In theory you could have investigated my Jailer, but I don't think you did.

I guess you could've also matched up with Alus night 0 read, but that seems unlikely.

...this is important guys.

@aura seer

I think you need to make that list when you get the chance and we'll start from there.
 
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TD

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Cole said:
okay so...

Cole - Confirmed gunner by gunner kill
Alu - confirmed aura seer by wolf death night 0
Medium - confirmed by speaking to dead Alu
(Good Role) - confirmed by a night 0 check from Alu
Jailer - confirmed by Coles prison sentence

but here's where it starts to get interesting...

IF canadaguy is to be believed.

canadaguy - virtually confirmed backup aura seer
TD - confirmed by canadaguy as good
not a wolf - confirmed by some sort of TD check.

...that's a potential 8 confirmed townies.

If we just out everyone, isn't... that like... close to game?
Click to expand...
There's also FR if we believe him. But if he's lying, he'd be really easy to out.
 
canadaguy

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TD said:
Is there any way for an aura seer to get a false good read?
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Going through the roles I think only a false bad is possible (if they check someone who has been wolf shamaned). So good aura should mean good player if I'm reading things correctly.
 
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okay, I'm fucking confusing myself, but I'm gonna try and plot this out, because I think we have a confirmation?

Alu checked someone night 0 with a confirmed good aura, let's call him Player 1.
Alu dies night 0, aura seer.
Cole shoots Ryan confirming he's the gunner.
Cole gets protected by the Jailer who confirms his identity to him.
Alu gets revived, knows who the Medium is.
canadaguy (effectively) confirms he's another aura seer by statements made regarding me on day 1.
canadaguy checks TD, confirming good.
TD has some kind of information implying Player 2 is NOT a wolf.

(asterisks for confirmed unique parties)

Alu*, Player 1, Cole*, Jailer, Medium, canadaguy*, TD*, Player 2.

Jailer = unknown Aura, *NOT* Player 1. - so Alu did NOT investigate my jailer.

Alu*, Player 1, Cole*, Jailer*, Medium, canadaguy*, TD*, Player 2

... @TD I don't wanna do this, but I think you need to confirm who you are. Because to do the math on this, we have to know WHAT you know, even if we don't know who it's about yet. Are you comfortable with that?

(I'm basically trying to deduce whether or not there is overlap in our investigations to see how many confirmed UNIQUE townies there are)
 
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spirit seer - good
tough guy - good
jailer - unknown
medium - unknown

aura seer - good
spirit seer - good
flower child - good
tough guy - good
bodyguard - good
beast hunter - unknown
witch - unknown
marksman - unknown
avenger - good
loud mouth - good
red lady - good
priest - good
sherrif - good
doctor - good

those are the remaining roles that are guaranteed, as well as all the potential roles and their auras.
 
TD

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I mean - I could. I'll also say that I've been called on it successfully at one point by somebody, whether they knew it or not. Yesterday is also littered with hints as to my exact roles.

But from what it seems, there seems to be negative connotation with flat out role claiming and I genuinely don't want to contribute to that if it legitimately ruins the game for people.

Yeah - I want to win, but I also want people to have fun.
 
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I had a horrible night. Staying with my sister and her main water pipe under her house busted around 1 am. Didn't get to sleep till 4 am. I don't know if I'll be active until later tonight. Glad to see Alu back. Good move by the Medium, especially since kut is gone now.

I'll try to update my analysis later, and I'll try to get caught up on reading what will be a whirlwind of posts, I'm sure.
 
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TD said:
I mean - I could. I'll also say that I've been called on it successfully at one point by somebody, whether they knew it or not. Yesterday is also littered with hints as to my exact roles.

But from what it seems, there seems to be negative connotation with flat out role claiming and I genuinely don't want to contribute to that if it legitimately ruins the game for people.

Yeah - I want to win, but I also want people to have fun.
Click to expand...
I don't think anyone has a leg to stand on if it's used tactically...

and this is tactical. whether people liked it last game or not, Zell has confirmed that role claiming is a part of this structure of game.

as long as you're comfortable with it, forget the haters.
 
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TD said:
Zell has confirmed that?

Okay fuck it.

Some nights I see blue.
Other nights I see red.
I've yet to get a direct clue.
Of who made someone dead.
Click to expand...
thats what I figured, you're spirit. so i assume whoever you checked last night you're confirming is not a wolf because they didn't kill someone. That's what I assumed, but I wanted to make sure.

Let me see if I can continue the analysis.
 
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Cole said:
thats what I figured, you're spirit. so i assume whoever you checked last night you're confirming is not a wolf because they didn't kill someone. That's what I assumed, but I wanted to make sure.

Let me see if I can continue the analysis.
Click to expand...
4 total reads. All blue, but 2 of em are dead.
 
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okay, I'm fucking confusing myself, but I'm gonna try and plot this out, because I think we have a confirmation?

Alu checked someone night 0 with a confirmed good aura, let's call him Player 1.
Alu dies night 0, aura seer.
Cole shoots Ryan confirming he's the gunner.
Cole gets protected by the Jailer who confirms his identity to him.
Alu gets revived, knows who the Medium is.
canadaguy (effectively) confirms he's another aura seer by statements made regarding me on day 1.
canadaguy checks TD, confirming good.
TD has some kind of information implying Player 2 is NOT a wolf.

(asterisks for confirmed unique parties)

Alu*, Player 1, Cole*, Jailer, Medium, canadaguy*, TD*, Player 2.

Jailer = unknown Aura, *NOT* Player 1. - so Alu did NOT investigate my jailer.

Alu*, Player 1, Cole*, Jailer*, Medium, canadaguy*, TD*, Player 2

TD says Player 2 did not kill anyone last night. So in theory, he could have investigated either the Jailer, the medium, or Player 1. All are blood free.

Alu*, Player 1, Cole*, Jailer, Medium, canadaguy*, TD*, Player 2

But since Alu did NOT investigate my Jailer, that means whoever TD investigated eliminates 1 person AT MOST.

so we still have a group of 7 confirmable townies, am I correct? with 8 if there was no overlap

Alu, Cole, canadaguy, TD, Jailer, Medium, Player 1 or 2.

Am I accurate here? Can we confirm 7 townies?
 
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TD said:
4 total reads. All blue, but 2 of em are dead.
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okay, 2 two confirmed non killers, which means non wolves.

That could bring is up to 9, or it could still be 7.

but again, there are FIVE badguys remaining.

So which is more likely, that TD investigated the solo?

Or that all 5 people that aren't on our list are confirmed enemies?
 
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canadaguy said:
Just to make sure though, that could still mean either of the 2 blues that are still alive are possibly the RK since they've not killed anyone yet?
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yes, but we need to eliminate the solo anyway, so it doesn't matter. Let's just operate under the assumption that we have 5 enemies, regardless of what they are.
 
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Raposa, Fools, Benzine, Warp, Ants, Dean, Tubby, Vash, Holly

these are the people that we 1 or more of us can NOT confirm are members of the town.

At minimum we can remove 3 of them from our investigations if there was overlap.

if Fools is to be believed, and Vashs implication is to be believed, that leaves Raposa, Benzine, Warp, Ants, Dean, Tubby and Holly.

I can confirm 1 of those remaining is NOT an enemy.

thats 6 potentials, and 5 enemies remaining.

Can anyone confirm of those 6 if someone you investigated is innocent OR at least not a wolf?
 
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canadaguy said:
Ask me tomorrow
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we cant afford to wait until tomorrow.

The random killer has stacked kills.

I am of the opinion that we need to start dropping names. I know its a HUGE risk, but I think it's critical now. I will not do it alone, and we can wait until later in the day when more of the se people can chime in.

But heres what I will say. If you know you are one of those remaining 6 and are willing to confirm for us who you are, that would be ideal.
 
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