Zell Wolf GWF Wolf Version VII Night 7 / Day 7

[VashTheStampede]

The thing that keeps me from calling it the best play was that he died leaving the town reasonably thinking there was 2 wolves left. If he had just tossed a last minute "by the way guys, I was actually guessing", different story.

#TeamTubby

Yeah but the negative impact possibility of that vs bringing back the solo killer...

 

[VashTheStampede]

Don't get me wrong, I LOVE both plays. Wild shit makes the game fun IMO

 

[TD]

Yeah but the negative impact possibility of that vs bringing back the solo killer...

Hey hey bringing back the solo killer was seemingly the catalyst for the emergence of the Lamb Chop 6!

 

[Dean]

I'm still #TeamTubby

#Tubby2024

 

[Raine]

Jawneh's contributions cannot be overstated. Not without caveat, of course - the Jawneh vs Benzine choice was retroactively sound.

But if he doesn't pop Smacktard, and instead kills himself playing loose cannon, even the hail mary with the Spell doesn't help.

 

[TD]

Jawneh is lowkey a really great player. Always seems to make sound decisions.

 

[VashTheStampede]

Jawneh is lowkey a really great player. Always seems to make sound decisions.

I don't think after the last few games you can even say it's lowkey.

 

[TD]

 

[VashTheStampede]

Basically I'm killing him next game

 

[Mark]

What're we up to, 4 Tubby memes now?

Tubby IS a meme.

That is all.

 

[TD]

Basically I'm killing him next game

The odds are in your favour. I don't think he's ever been a baddie has he?

In other words.. he's due? That's sound logic.

 

[Mark]

Also… is it too much to ask for to see Tubs team up with someone and become Crockett and Tubs for the game?

 

[VashTheStampede]

The odds are in your favour. I don't think he's ever been a baddie has he?

In other words.. he's due? That's sound logic.

Yeah and Alu is gonna be good

 

[TD]

I'm basically always going to assume Alu is a wolf until I see something to the contrary.

 

[Tubby23]

Tubby IS a meme.

That is all.

#fortheculture
#TeamTubby
#Tubby2024

 

[Jawneh]

I hate that I was the only one killed by the Illusionist...

I killed more than the solo killer.

 

[Jawneh]

Basically I'm killing him next game

Hell no. I choose when I get myself killed!

 

[Jawneh]

The odds are in your favour. I don't think he's ever been a baddie has he?

In other words.. he's due? That's sound logic.

Only due to instigator technicality. I was rolled a doctor to begin with and then turned to the other side.

 

[Zell 17]

@Ants!
@Ben
@canadaguy
@Dean
@Fool's Requiem
@Jawneh
@Raine
@shortkut
@Tubby23
@VashTheStampede
@Altoona Pizza
@Benzine
@Smacktard
@Tommy Boy
@Local Hero
@TD

Alright everybody, here is my post-mortem. Since everyone lost, everyone's gonna get a piece!

Day 1: Detective is dead, and they are the only confirmed seer. It felt like the village waited around for someone to please tell them who to lynch. Eventually Raine settled on Jawneh, which is perfectly reasonable! What was not reasonable was that Jawneh didn't defend himself at all and was basically happy to be lynched as one of the most powerful roles in the game on the town side. Day 1 if there's not any info the town should be pushing people for claims, which is basically what Raine did. Vash put it pretty well somewhere in that thread (I'm not gonna look for it). Basically, the game before the Village dominated by getting their claims out early, why was everyone being so cagey in this game? And that cageyness definitely hurt the village, and almost hurt them catastrophically. No evils voted for Jawneh on day 1, but if they had, the game was probably over for the town.

Villagers: I know you may not want to claim. Good news: You don't have to fully reveal your role in order to help the town. You can just say "I'm a random villager" and the village for deductive purposes has the exact same amount of information as if you say "I'm Loudmouth". It's almost better to just claim "RRV" if you are a random villager, because then the evils don't know if you are a doctor or tough guy or what you are, but the village knows that you are one of the 4x RRV claims in order to sus out wolves. Imagine if the wolves thought Dean was a Doctor or something and attacked him. Especially with a blind wolf in the game, nobody will ever know the true roles of the RRVs unless they give them up. Give the wolves something to fear!

If you aren't RRV and still don't want to claim for whatever reason, you can just say something like "I'm a fixed role that requires protection". (I'm thinking Jailer/Marksman here) Or "I'm a fixed role". The wolves would be risking a lot attacking someone who asked for protection when there are 4 random villagers and 25% of the random villager list (Witch, BG, TG, Doc, Flagger) can protect on demand (70% chance of a protector in the game, obviously there wasn't in this particular game, but the wolves don't know that). The point is, don't let yourself get mislynched without any kind of claim. That obviously goes for evils too.

The other problem with not claiming marksman is that it allowed Alu to do so. And, as the unchallenged marksman, Raine put her spell on Alu. If at any point over the next two nights if the wolves had killed Raine then Alu would be revived as a wolf. Obviously the evils don't know any of this, I'm just pointing out the perils of letting someone else claim your role unchallenged.

Wolves:
We'll get to them on Day 2

Fool:
Obviously kind of an unforced error giving a demonstrably fake role claim on day 1 (claiming something you can't do). You got put on the back foot and really kind of never recovered.

Solo Killer:
No issues.

Day 2:

Villagers: The village is listless again. Nobody is going to get voted. And then, BANG. Tubby comes out with his big play. I said this in the dead forum, I love the balls here. He saw where the game was going (no vote and inevitable loss) and took charge. If he was right, great. If he was wrong, well the village was gonna lose anyways. And even if it failed, he picked two people who had no claims and forced them to make claims. The problems of course are detailed in the wolf section below. Those could have been resolved if he had just confessed to faking the info before the day ended. But he didn't, and it let big opportunities.

Wolves: Missed a huge opportunity here. They didn't ever realize that Tubby was giving fake information. I can forgive them for not reading the roles in detail, but TD posted in the thread on Day 2 "Tubby is saying that Tommy is the Wolf Shaman, if he is not then we know Tubby is fake". That should have raised alarm bells, because they knew that Tommy wasn't the Wolf Shaman and they knew that none of the wolves were jailed. So what could they have done? Well, that night they had basically three options:

1) Kill Raine
2) Kill Jawneh (who by this time the wolves had deduced was the real marksman)
3) Kill Tubby

If the wolves do number 1, then it becomes clear to the village that Tubby lied. (Tommy and Raine both aren't the shaman). In that case you have two sheriff claims and one of them gave provably false information. I'd have been surprised if Tubby survived that. At the very least it would probably convince Jawneh to move his mark off of Kelly, since he would be the sheriff claim with more credibility.

If the wolves do number 2, then they are taking a bullet out of the game (which would end up saving Kelly). Then the next day would probably be TD and Raine pushing Tubby and vice versa.

Even if the wolves do number 3 (which they did), if they had realized that the sheriff would only see the wolf shaman they could have tried pushing Raine. Benzine didn't have a claim yet and he could claim he was the ritualist, and it would be consistent with all of his other games as medium/conjuror. Basically the only way the village could logically arrive to the conclusion that Raine wasn't fake was if they had guessed that Tubby lied. I doubt the village would come to that conclusion, and Raine likely gets voted out as the "proven" wolf shaman.

Solo killer:
I wonder, did you think Local was the Fool or a wolf? It's an interesting play trying to disguise him.

Day 3:

Villagers: It appeared that the Illusionist was dead. Total confusion reigned, but it wouldn't last long before the wolves came in to basically explain everything. We'll get to that below

Solo killer: The only additional appeal I might have considered making to avoid getting lynched here is just providing the town with two scenarios and asking which is more likely:

A) Local is the Illusionist. He made a random kill day 1. He was jailed that night, and thus couldn't kill anyone on Day 2 (and there was no day 2 kill). He was killed by Jawneh during night 3.

B) TD is the illusionist. He made a random kill day 1. He, for some reason, decided to make no kill at all Day 2. He disguised a basically proven evil on Night 3 just in time for them to be shot. Benzine after having no claim for three days is all of a sudden a Bell Ringer who is voting in lockstep with a RRV marksman who has never shot.

I know if I'm a villager, I probably go with option A all day. As far as role to claim here, the problem with a protective role is that the Marksman and Jailer were dead.

Wolves:
Well let's look at the three golden rules from previous games:

Zell Wolf - The Cemetary

The other thing that happened day 1 that was unfortunate I think was the shadowing. It was scheduled but I think it hurt the wolves. I agree. If you're going to shadow you need to be able to outnumber them easily, spread misinformation (with fake seering), or a combination. It worked really...

gwforums.com

1) At least one wolf claims seer (preferably) two and pushes info (real or fake)
2) ALL wolves have a DAY 1 public claim.
3) Protect the solos until the town is beaten.

I'm gonna add a fourth here:
4) Prioritize killing bullets over info roles.

So, for bullet point 2, we had solid day 1 claims by Kelly and Alu. Tommy and Benzine went unclaimed. Tommy on Day 2 claimed seer, but by then it was too late, it looked like a reaction to Tubby's information of calling him evil (because it was).

Let's look at Day 2 again real quick. We have Tubby giving fake info and Tommy also giving fake info. At one point, the village is fully lynching Tubby and then decides en masse to switch to Tommy. Why is that? Well, simply, I think it's because Tommy's info was second. Tubby called Tommy evil, and in response Tommy called someone else evil. If Tommy is out there first, probably Tubby doesn't make up any info at all since the village has direction. But even if he does, it looks like a weak response. So the lesson to me is, get in there. If you wait to see what's going to happen you might be fucked before you have a chance to do anything.

For number 3: I thought the wolves came in way too hard on TD too early. By too hard, I mean I think they pushed about as hard as they could (Faked info to "reveal" him, wolves were the first votes). Going so hard basically outed them as wolves, which is fine if you are close to hitting your win condition but I don't think they were. I think when they formulated the plan to do so they overestimated the strength of the Solo and underestimated the remaining strength of the town. Basically the same mistake the wolves made in Game 5 with the Cupid. I say overestimated the strength of the solo because there was a lot of concern over "He could already have us disguised right now", which is true, but he has less information than the town and the town was nowhere close figuring out the three remaining wolves.

Say you are the solo player, and you have to pick out wolves from this group on night 3:
-Player 1: Claims Loudmouth. Seen as Evil by confirmed dead detective
-Player 2: Claims Beast Hunter. No wolves trapped, all strong villagers dead unprotected.
-Player 3: Claims Marksman. Only marksman claim.
-Player 4: Claims Sheriff. No info provided, real sheriff dead.
-Player 5: No claim whatsoever yet (later would be Bell Ringer)
-Player 6: No claim whatsoever. Voted for themselves on Day 1.

Even if you wanted to, there's no way you are guessing 3/3 correct out of that list.

The town still had confirmed bullets (marksman), a revival, and possible RRV bullets/protection to contend with. Oh, and a perfect record in these games so far. I think the wolves should have been a lot more worried about that. If Raine spells Jawneh then it would have been 7 vs 2 the next day, with two villagers claiming to be able to kill / reveal other RRVs and the wolves claiming that the Fool is dead. I just don't think there was any path forward yet.

The other thing too...you didn't have to sell him. He was suspicious enough on his own, both shortkut and Vash had him tagged. You don't know that, but mass confusion reigned after Jawneh killed Local. Just...let the village be confused for a bit. They might go after TD anyways, and you don't need to expose yourself so much. This is the other reason that I tell wolves that it helps to fake information, in that when it comes time to sell the RK, you can have your info giver sell him with credibility.

Day 4 and subsequent:

Villagers: Listen Raine, I get why you revived TD. I understand the logic that he would have killed somebody if he had been the real illusionist. But yeah, you obviously tripped yourself up here and overlooked the possibility that he may have just not had any kills. Spelling Jawneh is probably the safest play here, or even yourself since I hadn't overtly banned it.

Wolves: You guys were stuck by this point.

Solo: Also kind of stuck.

Probably the source of nearly all ties is either the Avenger or Wolf Avenger. So solos, now you kinda know that if someone claims one of these roles, get rid of them ASAP before they can narrow the pool to tag you. In a strange way Raine's revive prevented everyone from winning (including the village).

 

[Fool's Requiem]

just think, I could have been a part of the stupidity. but someone had to go and murder me.

I'm not salty at all.

 

[VashTheStampede]

That's the thing about this game. We'd have a lot more fun of there wasn't all these people running around murdering everyone. Makes me wanna kill those damn murdering killers.

 

[A Punched Face]

I did try to tell the other wolves that there was likely no one tagged and that TD got messed up by the jail of Local. But alas.

 

[Smacktard]

TD posted in the thread on Day 2 "Tubby is saying that Tommy is the Wolf Shaman, if he is not then we know Tubby is fake". That should have raised alarm bells, because they knew that Tommy wasn't the Wolf Shaman and they knew that none of the wolves were jailed.

To be honest, I didn't realize this at the time. After it was revealed, I just assumed it was a slip-up on your part it wasn't until news came out that Tubby faked his sheriff seer that this clicked together. Such a ballsy move by Tubby. Mad respect for that.

For number 3: I thought the wolves came in way too hard on TD too early. By too hard, I mean I think they pushed about as hard as they could (Faked info to "reveal" him, wolves were the first votes).

The thing is, TD was coming for us so hard during the day that I did legitimately think he had me diguised. Local being killed by Jawneh meant that we would never see if Local was the only one who was currently disguised or not. He also had 3/4 of our members at the top of his most sus list by day 2. Knowing when and how to kill the RK really seems to be the hardest play to make as a wolf.

Spelling Jawneh is probably the safest play here, or even yourself since I hadn't overtly banned it.

Yeah, we were certain Raine was going to spell Jawneh or herself. TD didn't make sense. The village not voting him off again the next day made even less sense, considering it would be an easy way to check if he really WAS the Illusionist.

Turning the game into a draw to get some shiny stickers seemed like a cop-out IMO but I admit I wasn't following the game closely after TD's revival so I don't know how realistic any other outcome would've been. I just don't like the idea of badges influencing gameplay, and I raised that concern before.

Thanks for the analysis as always. Really helps out things into perspective and makes me rethink our plays, and how I would play in the future.

 

[A Punched Face]

Turning the game into a draw to get some shiny stickers seemed like a cop-out IMO but I admit I wasn't following the game closely after TD's revival so I don't know how realistic any other outcome would've been. I just don't like the idea of badges influencing gameplay, and I raised that concern before.

Once he was revived and not lynched again there was no path to victory for either him or us. A draw or a loss was our only outcome.

 

[Smacktard]

Once he was revived and not lynched again there was no path to victory for either him or us. A draw or a loss was our only outcome.

I know, but was there a potential win for anyone is my question?

 

[A Punched Face]

I know, but was there a potential win for anyone is my question?

The town, if the wolves and the RK took any actions. Essentially we could hand the game to them.

Also they could have handed it to the wolves by lynching kut and kut taking TD out.

 

[VashTheStampede]

The town, if the wolves and the RK took any actions. Essentially we could hand the game to them.

Also they could have handed it to the wolves by lynching kut and kut taking TD out.

Yeah, basically the way I saw it was that one team was going to have to basically hand another team a win, and I have a heavy aversion to kingmaker plays in games.

 

[TD]

Solo Killer:
No issues.

The kill of FR worked very well for both me and the wolves I found.

Solo killer:
I wonder, did you think Local was the Fool or a wolf? It's an interesting play trying to disguise him.

I was 100% convinced he was Fool. After you told me about the night action stage I was tilted and wanted to kill a wolf, that's why I tagged Tommy initially, I had two wolves pegged at this point. Then I thought it through and figured making everyone think that the Fool might still be out there, I also thought no Fool corpse would be useful when my lynch was coming since Kelly basically told me it was.

Solo killer: The only additional appeal I might have considered making to avoid getting lynched here is just providing the town with two scenarios and asking which is more likely:

Yeah I honestly wasn't too sure what my move was. For a bit, some people seemed to be a bit worried I was the Fool so my previous move worked a little. I didn't count on the whole wolf team selling themselves out to come get me.

Villagers: Listen Raine, I get why you revived TD. I understand the logic that he would have killed somebody if he had been the real illusionist. But yeah, you obviously tripped yourself up here and overlooked the possibility that he may have just not had any kills.

In her defense, even if I had someone tagged I was 100% not going to kill them right before I was lynched. If I did, I'm 100% outed on the slim chance I was the revival target.

 

[TD]

The town, if the wolves and the RK took any actions. Essentially we could hand the game to them.

Also they could have handed it to the wolves by lynching kut and kut taking TD out.

I was initially going to put up a fight but then when I became convinced shortkut was the Avenger, I realized there was no way I was going to win.

I wasn't going to kill on that first stalemate day either, I just wanted it to be over.

 

[Local Hero]

Fool:
Obviously kind of an unforced error

Fool
Unforced error

Sounds like I played the role perfectly

 

[Zell 17]

The town, if the wolves and the RK took any actions. Essentially we could hand the game to them.

Also they could have handed it to the wolves by lynching kut and kut taking TD out.

So, in my opinion what you do here is whittle the town down to a 1 v 1 v 1 with shortkut as the last villager. it has to be shortkut because he is the one that nobody can kill. Take out Vash, Dean, and likely Alu based on who TD had tagged. Lots of ways to get there, but the simplest would have been you kill Dean on the last night once you knew the trap was gone and then TD kills.

Once it's a 1 v 1 v 1, the Illusionist and wolf both vote shortkut and make him decide the winner. You then at least have a 50-50 chance of winning, as opposed to the 0% chance if you force a draw.

 

[TD]

Oh and speaking of the stalemate day, I was set to do a last minute snap on Vash and swing the lynch to a 3-2, I had even messaged about it.

This was before everyone got on board though.

 

[Jawneh]

What was not reasonable was that Jawneh didn't defend himself at all and was basically happy to be lynched as one of the most powerful roles in the game on the town side.

Hey, it's my jam to live on the edge. Anything other than that would look weird for me unless I had already come out and be proven to be something. I wasn't worried about any early votes until maybe half way through the day and I think at that point we had gotten some Ben/zine votes going.

But maybe I should play differently. Or maybe I should make things worse for everyone, since more often than not my thing hasn't necessarily caused problems. (Well maybe during last game as Jawbby)

At the very least it would probably convince Jawneh to move his mark off of Kelly, since he would be the sheriff claim with more credibility.

That's a no for that one. I don't remember if it was day 1 or 2 when I posted my suspect list of 4 and then top 3. Both Kelly and Local were on it before Tubby's gambit. In a weird twist of fate, Tubby was on it too even before him lying about seeing something, but that was just #feels of Tubby's play to that point. He was the least suspect for me anyhow. Vash I just didn't know what to do with as none really cared if he was really the loudmouth and the town wasn't concerned about the Ants v. Vash seer thing. Not that I helped push that either. So Vash just lived in the periphery for a Lambchop.

 

[Raine]

And even if it failed, he picked two people who had no claims and forced them to make claims.

OH JESUS FUCK EVEN THE HOST DIDN'T CATCH MY ROLE CLAIMS?! I'm doing this all wrong.

Lemme walk you guys through this...

Anybody have any advice for stuff I've missed since the last time I played, which was like game 3 I think?

Typically people hint or outright claim roles Day 1/2, and the people that don't - die.

Otherwise should be business as usual? Maybe.

Unknown factors notwithstanding since this is allegedly more tightly tuned towards the wolfies.

This is a role claim. Whether you think, in light of posts made by Dean after (in which he claimed a job with an Unknown aura lol), that I was claiming Aura Seer or saying that my own aura was Unknown is irrelevant.

Other people were more vague than this and people caught them. In addition to me catching (most of?) them, obviously.

The best liars always tell the truth.

Which is why I'm playing FFXI, because I canoe git gud.

This is intentionally a bit inside baseball: I'm telling you that I can't check Good, so I'm playing a game that has a Beastmaster in it. Beastmaster, Beast Hunter, same difference - I could have been more blatant and said I was playing Monster Hunter, but the idea was to make you work for it a bit. I didn't want to be overt for the exact same reason I came after Dean, and eventually used as basis for Alu.


Anyway back to reading Zell's breakdown. If I'm not called a sneaky fuck at least once I'm going to be upset!

 

[Zell 17]

So, in my opinion what you do here is whittle the town down to a 1 v 1 v 1 with shortkut as the last villager. it has to be shortkut because he is the one that nobody can kill. Take out Vash, Dean, and likely Alu based on who TD had tagged. Lots of ways to get there, but the simplest would have been you kill Dean on the last night once you knew the trap was gone and then TD kills.

Once it's a 1 v 1 v 1, the Illusionist and wolf both vote shortkut and make him decide the winner. You then at least have a 50-50 chance of winning, as opposed to the 0% chance if you force a draw.

@shortkut who would you have picked??

 

[TD]

This is a role claim. Whether you think, in light of posts made by Dean after (in which he claimed a job with an Unknown aura lol), that I was claiming Aura Seer or saying that my own aura was Unknown is irrelevant.

I got it.


Didn't mean I trusted you at the time but I knew what the Unknown in caps meant.

 

[Local Hero]

@Raine is ao much of a mastermind that not even their reveals make sense

 

[Raine]

@Raine is ao much of a mastermind that not even their reveals make sense

I AM TRAPPED INSIDE MY OWN MIND TRAPPED INSIDE LOCAL'S MIND SPINNING IN A BLEEEENDER

 

[TD]

Hey, it's my jam to live on the edge. Anything other than that would look weird for me unless I had already come out and be proven to be something. I wasn't worried about any early votes until maybe half way through the day and I think at that point we had gotten some Ben/zine votes going.

But maybe I should play differently. Or maybe I should make things worse for everyone, since more often than not my thing hasn't necessarily caused problems. (Well maybe during last game as Jawbby)

Fwiw even though townies were of no use to me*, I believed you after our exchange.

 

[TD]

@shortkut who would you have picked??

This is basically like force feeding him pizza with pineapple on it.

 

[Zell 17]

This is basically like force feeding him pizza with pineapple on it.

Well now he's gonna say he would have killed you

 

[TD]

But he also knows I'm with him on it.

I almost don't want to know who he would've picked. He was very adamant on leaving me targeted no matter what until Alu was literally the one who talked him out of it ironically.

 

[Raine]

So, for bullet point 2, we had solid day 1 claims by Kelly and Alu. Tommy and Benzine went unclaimed. Tommy on Day 2 claimed seer, but by then it was too late, it looked like a reaction to Tubby's information of calling him evil (because it was).

Tommy made a claim on Day 1, Benzine sort of vaguely maybe hinted at some nebulous thing.

Like I get that, functionally, they didn't claim. But at least for Tommy, both @TD and myself are genuinely fucking insane. We both noticed.

This is Tommy's role claim:




Edit: @Tubby23 noticed Tommy's (lack of) activity too, which is what initially made him suspicious of Tommy.

 

[VashTheStampede]

So Vash just lived in the periphery for a Lambchop.

Yep, that's the trick. Be so fucking loud and pointless that I force people to basically subconsciously ignore me.

But man is it frustrating when I try to actually contribute and it's just taken as more static.

So I'm basically a passenger all the way to the end, even though 90% of the players think I'm on the other side of them.

 

[VashTheStampede]

People will literally bring up a time I did my shtick and burned half the village to the ground WHILE accusing me of maybe plotting to do it again. But it's just Vash, no big deal.

 

[Benzine]

People will literally bring up a time I did my shtick and burned half the village to the ground WHILE accusing me of maybe plotting to do it again. But it's just Vash, no big deal.

dw babe I knew you were innocent

 

[Jawneh]

Yep, that's the trick. Be so fucking loud and pointless that I force people to basically subconsciously ignore me.

But man is it frustrating when I try to actually contribute and it's just taken as more static.

So I'm basically a passenger all the way to the end, even though 90% of the players think I'm on the other side of them.

This is post-game talk, but when the Ants v. Vash seer info came out, you could've went overly defensive for no reason and try to get yourself lynched. Yelling loudmouth in a game with the fool is just saying you're probably the fool unless the fool dies. Which we didn't get concrete info for a while even after Local was shot. I did seriously think to push you if you were the loudmouth, but we had no way of knowing sure. Both loudmouth and fool are completely different animals to play for sure.

 

[VashTheStampede]

dw babe I knew you were innocent

Yeah, the wolves tend to know I'm not a wolf for some reason.

kut was the only townie I can recall having a good read on it

 

[Local Hero]

Btw, would one or two no-ability villagers be good for balance?

 

[VashTheStampede]

This is post-game talk, but when the Ants v. Vash seer info came out, you could've went overly defensive for no reason and try to get yourself lynched.

Yeah, I figured that a bit too late. At the time I was still annoyed at having a role that required me to remove myself from the game to be effective.