Zell Wolf GWF Wolf Version VII Night 1 / Day 1

[TD]

Raine's list of who she thought claimed things would be handy, as I'm sure there is things I haven't picked up on.

I'm torn on this and it's Tough.

I've picked up on some things but aside from explicitly "I am x", it could be a hint or not be.

It's also risky outing potentially powerful townie roles, we may have one or two protection roles in the random pool but nothing in the guaranteed.

 

[Tubby23]

Maybe not so much the actual list as look at these people

 

[TD]

I'm already seeing two people claim a guaranteed role unless I'm misinterpreting someone.

 

[Tubby23]

Is it a guaranteed role that can also fall as a random role?

 

[TD]

Is it a guaranteed role that can also fall as a random role?

It is. So technically it's possible.

 

[A Punched Face]

It is. So technically it's possible.

With the RNG working like it normally does, we're almost certainly in for some twinsies.

 

[Tubby23]

It is. So technically it's possible.

I have scepticism of that, but I'm taking it on face value at the moment so I don't get caught down a rabbit hole on a townie

 

[Smacktard]

I have scepticism of that, but I'm taking it on face value at the moment so I don't get caught down a rabbit hole on a townie

It's sort of the birthday paradox, right? It doesn't seem super likely at face value, but it's probably more likely than we think.

...sh-...should I run the numbers?

 

[Tubby23]

Another inconsistency but something I'm just taking as it being mid-week and most of the phase so far happening at day time is Benzine's level of activity.

Could be nothing, could be he has a role worth staying safe for.

 

[Tubby23]

It's sort of the birthday paradox, right? It doesn't seem super likely at face value, but it's probably more likely than we think.

...sh-...should I run the numbers?

I'd actually love to know the real numbers even just to feel smart for future references

 

[Smacktard]

I'd actually love to know the real numbers even just to feel smart for future references

Me not know how do hard maths

 

[shortkut]

With the RNG working like it normally does, we're almost certainly in for some twinsies.

 

[Tubby23]

Shotty DeVito

 

[VashTheStampede]

Anyone have anything to help us narrow down the baddies and fool?

Yeah, kill me

 

[Zell 17]

Well there are only three roles on the guaranteed list that are also on the random list. There are 20 random possibilities and 4 slots. So the odds that there are NO repeats is:

(17/20)^4 or about 52%.

 

[Tubby23]

Yeah, kill me

 

[Zell 17]

Well there are only three roles on the guaranteed list that are also on the random list. There are 20 random possibilities and 4 slots. So the odds that there are NO repeats is:

(17/20)^4 or about 52%.

This doesn't take into account that we could have repeats NOT on the guaranteed list btw.

 

[Tubby23]

This doesn't take into account that we could have repeats NOT on the guaranteed list btw.

Please update assumptions

 

[A Punched Face]

Please update assumptions

Odds of repeat now at greater than 50%

 

[TD]

This might be the quietest Day 1 yet.

Guessing we're all on board with no lynch until something better comes along?

 

[VashTheStampede]

Voting TD

 

[TD]

You just wanted another blue man, didn't you?

 

[VashTheStampede]

Forming a group

 

[TD]

Forming a group

 

[Raine]

Lunch break, choochoo! Skipped to the last page for now.

Raine's list of who she thought claimed things would be handy, as I'm sure there is things I haven't picked up on.

Immediately assume that 1) I'm a wolf or 2) that I'm trying to make the wolves attack me if/when I do this.

I will readily admit to messing with the wolfies, but - yeah people are definitely subtly making claims they can point back to later, and some have inadvertently claimed the same role without a more more convoluted explanation. Obvious jokes notwithstanding.

 

[Zell 17]

Votes to lynch (6 required):

Benzine - 1 (shortkut)
Dean - 1 (Local Hero)
TD - 1 (VashTheStampede)
No vote - 10 (Altoona Pizza, Ben, Benzine ,Dean, Jawneh, Raine, Smacktard, TD, Tommy Boy, Tubby23)

Votes to skip (12 required):

No vote - 13 (Altoona Pizza, Ben, Benzine , Dean, Jawneh, Local Hero, Raine, shortkut, Smacktard, TD, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede

 

[VashTheStampede]

 

[TD]

Immediately assume that 1) I'm a wolf or 2) that I'm trying to make the wolves attack me if/when I do this.

 

[TD]

And this is how Vash maintains his stranglehold on the reaction lead.

 

[VashTheStampede]

 

[Raine]

To clarify, I mean the explicit posting of tables/accusations. I see how that could be read both ways.

 

[VashTheStampede]

If Raine doesn't post a new table that's sus AF

 

[TD]

Suuuuure sure.

 

[Raine]

Alu	Never
Ants!	Gonna
Ben	Give
Benzine	You
canadaguy	Up
Dean	Never
Fool's Requiem	Gonna
Jawneh	Let
Local Hero	You
Raine	notyou
shortkut	Down
Smacktard	Never
TD	Gonna
Tommy Boy	Run
Tubby23	Around
VashTheStampede	!

 

[VashTheStampede]

Holy crap she figured me out

 

[TD]

omg I'm Gonna!

Also that was super fast.

 

[VashTheStampede]

attention fellow wolf players

i regret to inform you that this is the last time you will see me post in lowercase letters for the rest of the game

 

[TD]

 

[VashTheStampede]

YUP

 

[TD]

 

[VashTheStampede]

WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT RAINE IS A WOLF YET AGAIN?

THIS IS A HYPOTHETICAL QUESTION

I THINK THE ODDS ARE LOW

WEIRD HOW QUESTIONS DONT SEE HYPOTHETICAL IN ALL CAPS

 

[VashTheStampede]

*SEEM

 

[TD]

 

[Raine]

So for lunch, all I'll contribute is: Fool's Requiem is the only player that hasn't posted in the thread yet. He has viewed it, though.

Sus!

WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT RAINE IS A WOLF YET AGAIN?

WHAT DO YOU MEAN YET AGAIN I'VE ONLY BEEN A WOLFIE TWICE

...OUT OF THREE GAMES

OKAY I SEE YOUR POINT NOW

 

[VashTheStampede]

HOWEVER UPON FURTHER REFLECTION I SUPPOSE THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ZELL PUT HIS FINGER ON THE SCALE

MAYHAPS HE PURPOSELY STACKED THE DECK WITH PEOPLE WHO HAVE PREVIOUSLY CLAIMED THAT THE WOLVES ARE TOO WEAK

PERHAPS GOD IS ATTEMPTING TO APPEASE US AND PREVENT FURTHER DEGRADATION OF FAITH

IF NO ONE BELIEVES IN GOD, DOES GOD DIE?

 

[VashTheStampede]

So for lunch, all I'll contribute is: Fool's Requiem is the only player that hasn't posted in the thread yet. He has viewed it, though.

Sus!

HE DEAD

 

[TD]

WHAT DO YOU MEAN YET AGAIN I'VE ONLY BEEN A WOLFIE TWICE

...OUT OF THREE GAMES

OKAY I SEE YOUR POINT NOW

 

[Raine]

HE DEAD

SEE THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU DON'T POST

also when you skip 3 pages to see what's happening

 

[Local Hero]

Local Hero

You

 

[TD]

Okay here's a recap:

canada guy Detective.
Ants Priest.
shortkut not a wolf.
FR "Illusionist"