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Microsoft Xbox Business Update

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Update: The pre-recorded podcast went live Feb 15th @ 3:00 PM ET.







Original post:

[Title:] Indiana Jones, Starfield Join Rumored Multiplatform Pile

Article:
Microsoft weighs launching Indiana Jones on the PS5

Bethesda’s upcoming Indiana Jones game is also tentatively set to launch on Sony’s PlayStation 5 console. We got our first glimpse of Indiana Jones and the Great Circle during Microsoft’s Xbox Developer Direct event last month, where it was announced for Xbox and PC. A source familiar with Microsoft’s plans tells The Verge that Bethesda is also considering bringing Indiana Jones and the Great Circle to PS5.

A new multi-platform approach for certain Xbox games is emerging inside Microsoft, we’re told, with the company weighing up which titles will remain exclusive and others that will appear on Switch or PS5 in the future. Indiana Jones appears to be part of this new wave of multi-platform games.

While Bethesda will launch its Indiana Jones game first as an Xbox console exclusive, it’s currently set to have a rather short period of exclusivity we’re told. A release for PS5 is being considered for some months later, with Bethesda tentatively targeting a December 2024 launch for the Xbox and PC versions.

Exact timing and platform availability for Indiana Jones and the Great Circle could change, particularly as Microsoft’s new multi-platform approach for Xbox games hasn’t been finalized. Microsoft has been evaluating bringing certain Xbox exclusives to PS5 and Nintendo Switch in recent months. Sea of Thieves and Hi-Fi Rush have both reportedly been under cross-platform consideration, and we understand Microsoft has also looked into bringing other Xbox games to rival consoles.

We’re told that a Hi-Fi Rush announcement for non-Xbox platforms is expected in the coming weeks. Datamined game assets hinted at a release for PS5 and Nintendo Switch earlier this week. XboxEra is also reporting that Microsoft is planning to bring Starfield to PS5, following the release of the game’s “Shattered Space” expansion for Xbox and PC.
 
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Exclusivity has never been Microsoft's strong point. Between them ditching physical releases and barely any Xbox-exclusive games this gen and last, it's hard for me to ever consider buying an Xbox again after this gen.
I am just completely and utterly baffled by what's going on. To retract from physical and essentially go third-party (with maybe a 6~12 month delay between Xbox and PlayStation, but day-and-date with Xbox and PC) after spending who knows how much time cultivating relationships with Sega to bring Yakuza and Persona to the platform, to repair/moneyhat relations with Square to bring Final Fantasy back to the platform, to buy the entirety of ZeniMax just so PlayStation couldn't have Starfield exclusive for 6~12 months... only to then put it on PlayStation themselves anyway.

There can be no expectation that Elder Scrolls VI remains exclusive if Halo is coming to PlayStation and Switch 2.

What the shit? :rofl
 

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I am just completely and utterly baffled by what's going on. To retract from physical and essentially go third-party (with maybe a 6~12 month delay between Xbox and PlayStation, but day-and-date with Xbox and PC) after spending who knows how much time cultivating relationships with Sega to bring Yakuza and Persona to the platform, to repair/moneyhat relations with Square to bring Final Fantasy back to the platform, to buy the entirety of ZeniMax just so PlayStation couldn't have Starfield exclusive for 6~12 months... only to then put it on PlayStation themselves anyway.

There can be no expectation that Elder Scrolls VI remains exclusive if Halo is coming to PlayStation and Switch 2.

What the shit? :rofl

I knew this was gonna happen, and I’m fairly sure most sensible people did as well (not implying that I’m, in fact, sensible). When you’re asking $70-$100 for a new AAA title, you can’t expect a sustainable revenue source from just one platform. If that were the case, we’d hear more about musicians limiting their music to one streaming platform (how’d that work out, Tidal?) or we’d hear more about certain big name series being limited to one platform instead of a short period of exclusivity followed by the media being shopped around every other platform afterwards. Devs and platforms have champagne taste, while the consumers are still on beer budgets, making this unavoidable.
 

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I am just completely and utterly baffled by what's going on. To retract from physical and essentially go third-party (with maybe a 6~12 month delay between Xbox and PlayStation, but day-and-date with Xbox and PC) after spending who knows how much time cultivating relationships with Sega to bring Yakuza and Persona to the platform, to repair/moneyhat relations with Square to bring Final Fantasy back to the platform, to buy the entirety of ZeniMax just so PlayStation couldn't have Starfield exclusive for 6~12 months... only to then put it on PlayStation themselves anyway.

There can be no expectation that Elder Scrolls VI remains exclusive if Halo is coming to PlayStation and Switch 2.

What the shit? :rofl
Microsoft has ALWAYS placed heavy focus on timed exclusives when it seems like most of the rest of the gaming community just doesn't have that much of a shit about timed exclusivity. I swear, Microsoft is the textbook argument for why non-gaming types shouldn't be execs in gaming companies.

As for Starfield, I'm not surprised it's coming to PS5 when it's been such a flop.
 

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Bethesda’s upcoming Indiana Jones game is also tentatively set to launch on Sony’s PlayStation 5 console. We got our first glimpse of Indiana Jones and the Great Circle during Microsoft’s Xbox Developer Direct event last month, where it was announced for Xbox and PC. A source familiar with Microsoft’s plans tells The Verge that Bethesda is also considering bringing Indiana Jones and the Great Circle to PS5.
As a PS5 owner, I am actually happy about this news.

Exclusivity has never been Microsoft's strong point. Between them ditching physical releases and barely any Xbox-exclusive games this gen and last, it's hard for me to ever consider buying an Xbox again after this gen.
I didn't buy an Xbox this gen and don't regret it.

There can be no expectation that Elder Scrolls VI remains exclusive if Halo is coming to PlayStation and Switch 2.
Again, I'm a PS5 owner, so I hope this is the case. Granted, if it were, it'd still almost certainly be available on PC as well, and I would play it there (still may because that's a game that can be heavily modded, so why not).

I don't particularly like exclusivity. I don't mind it for studio specific releases, but I don't understand it from a business perspective. Yes, it helps sell consoles, but I promise they make more off the game sales than the system sales FROM an exclusive. Something like Bethesda, which Microsoft bought and scared a lot of people with, isn't really a developer they can afford to keep exclusive. The amount of money they'd lose from the millions of copies sold on Sony from IPs such as Elder Scrolls and Fallout would be catastrophic. I argue Microsoft's bigger issue is their push that everything seems to be a game as a service.
 

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I didn't buy an Xbox this gen and don't regret it.
I was never planning on buying an Xbox system until Raine told me that XSX was backwards compatible with almost every previous Xbox game, and that the XSX was going to stop being produced. I bought one, but I don't intend to do much (any?) modern gen gaming on it, and there's only one XOne game I'd like for the console.
 
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Gears of War and Halo also rumoured now too.

Sounds like Microsoft is learning a harsh lesson that you can't just use acquisitions and expect to make a profit.

Might be easier to just say what won't at this point.
 

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When you’re asking $70-$100 for a new AAA title, you can’t expect a sustainable revenue source from just one platform.
Aye, that's kind of the canary in the coal mine here. It's actually always been like this; the platform holders' own output are loss leaders. Pokemon, for example, would sell absolute fuck you amounts of copies (more than it already does!) if it wasn't locked to Nintendo's platforms. But because they are, alongside Nintendo's other stable of IP, people have to buy the platforms Nintendo puts out. So they get some money from their software and some money on their hardware - but the real bread winner is they take a 30% cut from everything everyone else sells on their platform, too!

So this doesn't make any sense for Microsoft, beyond the Game Pass on Other Consoles pipedream. They are right now literally killing the Xbox console, which means fewer developers will put their stuff onto Xbox, and so Microsoft will receive significantly less revenue. It's not like Microsoft is going to release their games physically on PS5 and Switch 2, either; they're shuttering their physical distribution entirely. So they have to 1) sell their stuff digitally, or 2) get $15/mo from as many PS5 and Switch 2 owners as possible - and that last one isn't even possible if Sony or Nintendo don't play ball.

Yeah, my first thought was that they're throwing in the towel and I thought "that's one fewer console to bother with in the future".

But then I realized how much money Game Pass has saved me over the years.
Mmhm. They've already increased the price on XBL Gold (sorry, Game Pass "Core") and Game Pass though. If they ditch the console, or the console just fades into obscurity because even people like me no longer need one, then... that price is going up. Way up. And it's going to start having fewer and fewer non-Microsoft-owned games on it.

Which that last thing is/was already going to happen, but... still.

As a PS5 owner, I am actually happy about this news.
See above, though. It's bad news for Sony, too. Arguably moreso for Sony because their first-party stuff has very notably underperformed as far back as the PS3, and...

I argue Microsoft's bigger issue is their push that everything seems to be a game as a service.
...Sony has/had more GaaS stuff in development right now than Microsoft does. Even with the cancellation of the online The Last of Us thing.

If Microsoft abandons the Xbox as a console, I hope they find a way to implement Game Pass on more platforms. Playing Game Pass games on my Steam Deck has been a revelation.
This is 100% their plan, whether they ditch the console or not.

Nintendo might go for it; Minecraft is already on Switch, and already supports Xbox Live - it even has Xbox achievements you can view on your Xbox platform.

Sony, though? Sony is never going to allow this obvious trojan horse into their walled garden, not even at the risk of losing Call of Duty. From their end they've already "lost" the next Elder Scrolls and Fallout, but now allegedly they're getting Starfield back? Purely a losing proposition, then.
 

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Update: The pre-recorded podcast went live Feb 15th @ 3:00 PM ET.




The takeaways:
  • Four games, that were not named by Microsoft, will be going multiplatform. Ostensibly both PlayStation 5 and Switch 2.
  • Microsoft officially says two of them are online-oriented, and two are more casual single-player affairs.
  • Leakers had already revealed the four games to be: Hi-Fi Rush and Pentiment, which will be releasing soon. Sea of Thieves, which will be releasing later on in the year. And finally Grounded, with no concrete window.
  • More games, in addition to Minecraft and Ori that are already on Switch, will be evaluated both on their own merits, and pending how well these first four games do. Reading between the lines, if Halo or Gears of War show up on PS5 - it'll just be their multiplayer components, to entice people to come experience the campaigns on Xbox (or PC).
  • Phil Spencer directly shoots down Starfield and Indiana Jones coming to other platforms... for now. Most of the talk throughout the podcast generally gives the vibe that first-party games will be, minimally, one year exclusive on Xbox + PC before potentially coming to PS5 and NS2.
  • Game Pass will continue to receive first-party games on Day 1. Additionally, Activision-Blizzard-King games will start appearing on Game Pass. Starting with Diablo IV on March 28th.
  • Microsoft will continue the Xbox brand, and emphasis is placed on instilling confidence in players that their digital libraries will be protected for years and decades to come. Physical was pointedly not broached; we will most likely have to wait until June, minimally, for more information on whether the FTC leak comes to fruition now or physical is just dropped with the rumored Holiday 2026 launch of the fifth generation Xbox.
 
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is just dropped with the rumored Holiday 2026 launch of the fifth generation Xbox.
sigh what the fuck

Console generations need to be longer. The leaps from Atari to NES to SNES to N64 to GameCube were all substantial. The leap from PS3 to PS4 less so, and from PS4 to PS5 even less. We don't need new consoles for another four years at least.
 
sigh what the fuck

Console generations need to be longer. The leaps from Atari to NES to SNES to N64 to GameCube were all substantial. The leap from PS3 to PS4 less so, and from PS4 to PS5 even less. We don't need new consoles for another four years at least.
Agreed. There have barely been any true PS5 exclusives because they spent so long making cross-gen games.
 

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Sony has officially gone on record this week saying the PS5 is now in the "latter half" of its cycle, so it's indeed not just Microsoft. However, Microsoft's blunder with making the Series S not just digital-only but actually a weaker console is definitely forcing their hand. By Holiday 2026 there will absolutely be games, like Baldur's Gate 3 last year, that either have to be severely downgraded or granted exception to not be playable on that version.

Console gaming is just in a really dumb and weird place, and it definitely started with the Xbox One X and the PlayStation 4 Pro "mid-gen refreshes." Now that both Microsoft and Sony are releasing their games on PC, the rate at which PC tech scales has to be taken more into consideration. So that, combined with increasing prices and persistent shortages - don't forget you couldn't even find these consoles the first two years they were "available" - is going to lead to a lot of dumb shit.

Like Holiday 2024/Calendar 2025 will probably be the first time PS4 and XBO are fully left behind. That's ~2 years wherein the Series X will be "worth it" from a must-have perspective. But the Series X (and PS5) will both probably persist multiple years into the XB5/PS6 cycle, so realistically you'll still be playing your PS5 until at least Holiday 2029 without missing too much. Exclusive first-party things to make the console more attractive notwithstanding.

At any rate, assuming Holiday 2026 for Xbox is real - I'm curious what this means for the heavily rumored PlayStation 5 Pro. Pulling a Sega and flooding the market with different iterations probably isn't going to have desirable results. Plus the aforementioned feeling that generations aren't making large enough leaps. 🤔
 
I have a lot of thoughts that I'm not sure how to articulate very well, and will ultimately come down to blaming gamers rather than the companies themselves. I'll summarize and just say that I am not expecting to buy a PS6 within the first year of it coming out (unlike the PS5), and I wouldn't be surprised to see a much slower uptake rate in the next generation of consoles.
 

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The way the console lifespans just keep getting shorter will probably prevent me from getting PS6 anywhere near release.

I got PS5 on release because of Demon's Souls but to hear we're in the back half of the cycle when there has barely been any current gen exclusive titles I've played as is...

The greed of this industry just keeps getting worse and developers aren't even being given time to make quality games with the current kits.
 

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Sony is definitely unreliable when it comes to backwards compatibility. It's not a sticking point for me but I know it's a big deal for a lot of people.

The PS3 being virtually impossible to emulate because of the wacky hardware and game development needs sure doesn't help Sony either.

I do have a backward compatible PS3 but I've also jailbroken it. PS5 can play PS4, so that's fine for me. But I'm also aware not everyone is in the same situation with Sony.
 
I think we've hit a point where all 3 companies know they need to be backwards compatible. People have digital libraries that are large, and since Sony and Microsoft can't deliver games very quickly, nobody would buy their newest consoles without backwards compatibility. I also think that Achievements/Trophies make a difference, because for people interested in them, you'd essentially be cutting them off from unfinished games without backwards compatibility.

The only company I have less faith in to be backwards compatible is Nintendo, but that's driven by their feeling of needing to innovate consoles, rather than deliver a good experience.
 

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FWIW the XSX isn't fully backwards compatible with anything other than the Xbone, and personally that system only has a single exclusive game that I'd be interested in playing.

All companies are dropping the ball with previous gen playability, but this is only really a recent concern for a problem that predates the concern. Many PS2-era games are just lost. Recent attempts to bring them to modern hardware, via HD collections, virtual stores, or re-releases help mitigate the problem, but there will always be some weird ones like Custom Robo or Gotcha Force that just wil likely never see rerelease.
 

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FWIW the XSX isn't fully backwards compatible with anything other than the Xbone, and personally that system only has a single exclusive game that I'd be interested in playing
The majority of my X360 library is playable on XSX. Most of the ones that I'd like to revisit that aren't are typically delisted games anyway. Which is a whole other thing I could rant about.
 

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I'll post links and thoughts tonight.

But, Microsoft (and Sony) are still fully capable of expanding their BC offerings. Microsoft just needs to invest more money because they already did all the legwork, while Sony could easily license the myriad emulators out there or come up with one of their own.

If, say, Xbox 5 doesn't have a disc drive - but they sell disc drives with emulators functionally built in, wherein like you plug in an X360 disc drive and you can play whatever X360 game you wanted? I'd be all fuckin' over that.

Unlikely to happen but y'know. :chuckle
 

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So instead of doing quotes, going to just group the thoughts into categories and dig up links to help paint a better picture of where we, the players and them, the platform holders, currently stand. And more importantly, where it is they're moving.


Console Cycles
This is, as Spiner noted, a bit of a chicken and the egg situation - insofar that the players have expressed many times their desire to get better, stronger hardware. This is usually misguided, thinking for example that a better CPU and/or GPU would enable their games to be locked 1080p 60FPS or greater. That has never, and will never, actually happen of course. Stronger hardware just means prettier graphics, not necessarily better fidelity, better AI, better environmental play/destruction, etc.

What's happening today is, ultimately, still a result of PS3 and X360. That generation was longer than normal - Microsoft was the leader, so they had no incentive to undercut Sony's momentum. And Sony was gaining tremendous steam and recovering financially from $599 and the PSN hack, so they were in heaven. Players, however, weren't happy. They hated that games started growing in size, they hated how slow PS3's backend was, they hated that PC had fully and substantially eclipsed the consoles.

So the cliffnotes looks like this (via Wikipedia):
c8frwtantckam0887s0ky3o46g6k0ib.png


But realistically, it's (also sourcing Wikipedia):

NES: 1985~1995 (~10 years)
SNES/GEN: 1989~1997 (~8 years) [4-ish years later]
PS1/N64: 1995~2002 (~7 years) [6-ish years later]
PS2/XBX/GCN: 2000~2009 (~9 years) (1999~2009 if SDC is counted, ~10 years) [5-ish years later]
X360/PS3/WII: 2005~2016 (~11 years) [5-ish years later]
PS4/XBO: 2013~2024 (~11 years) [8-ish years later]
PS5/XSX: 2020~??? (9+ years, realistically) [7-ish years later]
PS6/XB5: 2026~ [6-ish years later, allegedly]

So, strictly on paper, it looks more or less in line. Maybe moving a bit back to where it was prior to PS360. The issue, then, is twofold: We're more than 3 years into this generation and exclusives are still few and far between. Most important games have been cross-gen, and that's not changing very quickly. And then, also as noted, for ~2 years of that you couldn't just walk into a store and pick one up. So functionally when you now see 2026 as the presumptive start date of a new generation, well... that's not going to feel right.

Links to recent-ish happenings on this subject:



Backwards Compatibility
As noted, Microsoft is by far in the best position to expand their offerings on this front. They already built their own X360 emulator, the only reason you can't just play any disc you want is because they chose to (attempt to) fine-tune each individual game, provide various bells and whistles - Final Fantasy XIII is noteworthy in that Microsoft worked directly with Square Enix to essentially remaster the game - and generally not piss off their third-party partners that wanted to resell the games. They announced that they've stopped their backwards compatibility expansion efforts, and the Xbox 360 Marketplace is set to close in July. However, things can change.

Sony will probably never bother to support PS1~3, PSP or Vita compatibility. Four of the five would be trivial to accomplish, and even PS3 has a respectable emulator out in the wild. They've started drip feeding random games from the easier platforms through their PS Plus "free" games - I've noted some of them in our weekly release threads - while others, like Legend of Dragoon and Wild ARMs, have gotten full releases. But that's not very satisfying.

Both Microsoft and Sony will continue to provide compatibility with Xbone/Series and PS4/5 moving forward, with the exception of weird stuff like Kinect and PSVR. It's been part of their mission statements over the years, they've both been pretty up front about it - Mark Cerny on Sony's end, in particular - and until something goes awry, I don't think there's any cause for alarm.

As for Nintendo? They were formerly the best with backcompat, at least on the handheld side of things. Even had the ability to play the handheld games on your SNES or GCN with special accessories. But those times are long gone, and realistically nobody should make "investments" into Nintendo's digital marketplaces. That being said...

Links to recent-ish happenings on this subject:

Exclusives
The long and the short of this is that, if playing good games is your primary concern - get yourself a decent gaming PC and feast. Microsoft and Sony already release some of their games on PC, and both camps are formally and officially acknowledging that that trend will continue. This is especially true, as Phil Spencer notes in this Business Update, for games with an online component. It simply does not make sense to have an online game that's not on as many platforms as possible, with as few barriers to entry as possible, and certainly there can be no room for having one or more of those platforms segregated from the others. The likes of Monster Hunter World on Xbox, for example, is a ghost town - and by all accounts, prior to the announcement of Wilds, the PC version was fairly spotty. This would immediately be resolved if PS4, Xbone and PC would have been interconnected - and especially if the PC version wasn't so late to arrive.

Helldivers 2 just launched simultaneously on PS5 and PC, and has become an unexpected hit. So much so for Phil Spencer to publicly acknowledge it, and essentially do his interpretation of a port beg. But even games without an online component, that aren't first-party, are feeling the heat. Final Fantasy XVI released exclusively on PS5 last year and "only" sold 3 million copies in its opening weeks. Which Square Enix tried to save face with, but is very clearly and obviously on the lower end of their expectations - enough so that their current Golden Boy, Naoki Yoshida, is being distanced and downplaying talk of his team tackling Final Fantasy XVII. Which is, to be blunt, the definition of insanity with the other series figureheads all caught up in Final Fantasy VII Remake for another ~6 years.

Essentially: Third-party games, without extraordinary moneyhats, are going to minimally show up on PC. They're probably going to want to show up on Switch (2) if the specs are good enough. If Xbox doesn't implode, they should try appearing on there too - even if sales are 4:1, if you're breaking a million that's still 200k potential sales left on the table. And an audience that you're failing to build, maintain or satisfy, that are going to spurn your future efforts when they come crawling. As, again, I'm sure Square Enix is about to feel the brunt of where Sega and Capcom will not.

Additionally, it seems reasonable that only the highest cream of the crop will remain full exclusive. It doesn't really make sense, for example, to ever entertain the idea of putting God of War or Spider-Man on Xbox. And while it does make sense to put Halo, Gears of War and Call of Duty multiplayer on PS5, I don't think it makes sense for their campaigns to come along for the ride. Games on the level of Ori or Hi-Fi Rush won't push systems - so they should, and have, eventually show up elsewhere. Starfield and Elder Scrolls VI, though? Personally I'm thinking that if I just spent ~$70b to acquire them, I'm keeping those as killer apps. That console is a loss-leader, after all, to get people into the ecosystem and make money via accessories and the 30% cut taken from third-party software being sold.

Links to recent-ish happenings on this subject:

Digital-Only Concerns
As noted, the Xbox 360 Marketplace is shutting down in July. The PS3 and PS Vita storefronts are definitely going to follow within the next 12 to 18 months; Sony already wanted to close them. The Wii U and 3DS storefronts closed last year, and all online functionality save for Pokemon (short-term) is ending soon. Your ability to redownload software you "own" is technically safe... for now.

However, we already own and have found three Xbox 360 games that are corrupted server-side and can't be redownloaded: Earthworm Jim HD (available via Xbone+Series though), Pirates vs Ninjas Dodgeball and World Gone Sour. Without a copy of that downloaded and backed up locally, you have been robbed of that purchase for minimally the last 5 years. We're certain that there are probably more on Xbox that we just haven't noticed yet, and probably some on PlayStation as well - we just haven't really done much with that side of things in a decade and change.

There are numerous pieces of normal DLC in the same boat. And Sony has just recently announced they're pulling the plug on a lot of digital "entitlements" that were previously tied to people's accounts. This doesn't apply to games yet, however, your PlayStation Plus subscription already messes with the Free* Digital Upgrade a lot of PS4 games offer on PS5. I can easily imagine, as can you, a future in which all of those upgrades are yanked just like the Free* digital copies of movies people got with their physical Blu-rays.

So, as always, just a reminder that you don't ever own digital goods.

Links to recent-ish happenings on this subject:
 
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Well this is fast - in less than a month HiFi Rush will be out on PS5. From what I heard this came out of nowhere and was a shining point for Xbox last year.
Yup! It got shadow dropped (released day of announcement), and immediately blew up as a surprise hit. Watched my partner play it back then for like 45 minutes and have seen some out of context highlight reel clips - very much has a silly, Adult Swim kind of vibe to its humor. Doesn't seem to take itself too seriously at all, which I liked, and the rhythm stuff seemed like it had potential. But obviously it's hard to say how much that does or doesn't get realized as the game progresses.
 
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So Pentiment just dropped on PS5... and it runs a twice the framerate, significantly better than Xbox.

Not a good look for Xbox on that one either.
 

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That's... certainly a choice, Microsoft. :chuckle

I'm sure they'll release an update/upgrade for Series X at least if they haven't already, but still - ouch!
 
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