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Zell Wolf Wolf 21 - Day 1

Who should the villagers lynch? (6 votes required)

  • Ben

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • canadaguy

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Christina

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Kat

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Local Hero

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Quagmire

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • shortkut

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • VashTheStampede

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    14
  • Poll closed .
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The town has a 33.3% win rate when lynching on day 1, but a 64.3% win rate when not lynching.

We have lynched the Fool twice on day 1. In fact, in games with a day 1 lynch of any description we have ended up lynching the Fool on either day 1 or 2 the same number of times that we've gone on to win (3). We have lynched a wolf five times on day 1, but we've only won two of them.

I looked into games where two townies had died before the first lynch. The win rate for lynching dropped to 20% and not lynching to 57.1%.

The only concern with not lynching is the general trend towards wolf wins. The town won 8 of the first 9 games with no lynch (with 1 tie), but only 1 of the last 5 (with 4 wolf wins).
 

shortkut

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The town has a 33.3% win rate when lynching on day 1, but a 64.3% win rate when not lynching.

We have lynched the Fool twice on day 1. In fact, in games with a day 1 lynch of any description we have ended up lynching the Fool on either day 1 or 2 the same number of times that we've gone on to win (3). We have lynched a wolf five times on day 1, but we've only won two of them.

I looked into games where two townies had died before the first lynch. The win rate for lynching dropped to 20% and not lynching to 57.1%.

The only concern with not lynching is the general trend towards wolf wins. The town won 8 of the first 9 games with no lynch (with 1 tie), but only 1 of the last 5 (with 4 wolf wins).
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The town has a 33.3% win rate when lynching on day 1, but a 64.3% win rate when not lynching.

We have lynched the Fool twice on day 1. In fact, in games with a day 1 lynch of any description we have ended up lynching the Fool on either day 1 or 2 the same number of times that we've gone on to win (3). We have lynched a wolf five times on day 1, but we've only won two of them.

I looked into games where two townies had died before the first lynch. The win rate for lynching dropped to 20% and not lynching to 57.1%.

The only concern with not lynching is the general trend towards wolf wins. The town won 8 of the first 9 games with no lynch (with 1 tie), but only 1 of the last 5 (with 4 wolf wins).

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The town has a 33.3% win rate when lynching on day 1, but a 64.3% win rate when not lynching.

We have lynched the Fool twice on day 1. In fact, in games with a day 1 lynch of any description we have ended up lynching the Fool on either day 1 or 2 the same number of times that we've gone on to win (3). We have lynched a wolf five times on day 1, but we've only won two of them.

I looked into games where two townies had died before the first lynch. The win rate for lynching dropped to 20% and not lynching to 57.1%.

The only concern with not lynching is the general trend towards wolf wins. The town won 8 of the first 9 games with no lynch (with 1 tie), but only 1 of the last 5 (with 4 wolf wins).
What's that they say about correlation and causation? More is different between those games than whether we lynched the first day or not. The rules have been skewed towards evils because the town was constantly winning, so it makes sense that the town would win less more recently.

lynch no one. or a wolf, which no one has knowledge on.
So we wait for a seer to give a read before we lynch anybody? What if it's days before that happens? What if they will show as good (or blue or unknown or whatever) to seers?

The best way to find wolves is to get people talking and making claims. The best way to get people to do that is to threaten to murder them.
 
What's that they say about correlation and causation? More is different between those games than whether we lynched the first day or not. The rules have been skewed towards evils because the town was constantly winning, so it makes sense that the town would win less more recently.


So we wait for a seer to give a read before we lynch anybody? What if it's days before that happens? What if they will show as good (or blue or unknown or whatever) to seers?

The best way to find wolves is to get people talking and making claims. The best way to get people to do that is to threaten to murder them.
okay well i don't know what information you actually get out of killing me though. i'm not even purporting information. and, only i am being pressed? this only makes sense as a poor investigation... and i've said what i am too. i've got nothing else, obviously.

and how many people have already claimed seer? it already seems like there'd be a lot of information to really start question and putting people into groups to then collab on more seer claims to get REAL info.

if you think i'm a wolf kill me but given the scenario and what's actually been done, i know you know that you should not be lynching me
 
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