Retro prices in recessions

[Smacktard]

Since Trump won the election, I've believed that he would usher in a recession. I've been wondering how collectable prices hold up in recessions. If I were to guess: not that well.

It seems to that some price changes have been taking place already.

Little Samson + manual sold for $2150 on eBay the other day. The cart alone used to go for $2200 just a short while ago. I've noticed similar price drops in mid-range titles like Guardian Heroes selling for $140 when it used to go for $200 or more.

Has anyone else been noticing price drops in the retro game market yet?
How low do you think prices will drop?
Is there any "golden rule" for collectables markets in recessions?
Has an impending recession made you reconsider your purchasing habits?

I think things are going to get a lot worse, and prices are going to go a lot lower. Still, I'm not letting this affect my purchasing habits. I got a few good deals over the past month. I suspect I'd get even better deals if I waited longer, but some of the titles I picked up are very rare in the condition I got them, and I didn't want to pass up a good opportunity. I think I'll probably continue buying at the same rate, just picking up deals as they come along. I'm focusing on any Sega Saturn titles I want, but also higher value CIB NES, SNES, N64, GB, and WonderSwan. There's only a few WonderSwan titles left that I want, so I'm hoping to finish off that collection over the 4 or 5 months.

 

[Fool's Requiem]

I think prices in general have lowered slightly since it peaked in 2023 but not completely across the board.

Sure, you can find a loose copy of Little Samson for less than 2 grand, but the Sonic 3 movie lead to a massive increase in Sonic Adventure 2 prices (the movie's plot is based on the game).

The prices for Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door on the Gamecube crashed over the past year due to the remake on the Switch. You can get a copy for about the same price as the Switch release. It looks like 55-60 is the stopping point for that price decrease.

I expect prices Project Justice and Power Stone 1 and 2 to drop when the Capcom Collection 2 comes out. Marvel vs Capcom 2 on the Dreamcast dropped 50 bucks since the MvC collection came out late last year.

Also, I refuse to get an official copy of Little Samson. It cost me 30 bucks to buy a repro that works really well.

 

[Smacktard]

Prices did come lower since the peak, but stabilized for a bit. Of course, pop culture trends and re-releases influence prices, but I was more curious just about the effect of a recession. Little Samson was just a decent benchmark to use because it's a popular expensive game.

 

[Crystal]

Prices will dip the worse the economy gets, which...yay, but also...you know...boo because the economy part, so it's possible to snag some deals as Trump's fuckery continues, since there's no question things are going to get worse. I wouldn't imagine we'll see massive drops on the rarest of the rares, but uncommons and slightly more common rares? Yeah, they'll come down. Your Panzer Dragoon Sagas and such.

 

[Fool's Requiem]

Yeah, they'll come down. Your Panzer Dragoon Sagas and such.

I'm just going to get a Satiator for those type of titles. As much as I want to play Legend of Oasis, I don't want to spend 140 on it, and I had a chance to do so on Sunday.

 

[Crystal]

I'm just going to get a Satiator for those type of titles. As much as I want to play Legend of Oasis, I don't want to spend 140 on it, and I had a chance to do so on Sunday.

Yeah definitely the way to do it. If I could afford to, I'd grab one, too. Saves the disc for games you own and lets you experience rare games without the cost for games you don't.

 

[MC74]

Yeah definitely the way to do it. If I could afford to, I'd grab one, too. Saves the disc for games you own and lets you experience rare games without the cost for games you don't.

Have you tried consulting your wife?

 

[Crystal]

Have you tried consulting your wife?

...bae, may I please buy stupidly expensive retro gaming things to have lots of fun times?

 

[MC74]

...bae, may I please buy stupidly expensive retro gaming things to have lots of fun times?

How could I say no? I'd like to jump in myself.

 

[Crystal]

How could I say no? I'd like to jump in myself.

You know they'd be for us, not me, lol

 

[MC74]

You know they'd be for us, not me, lol

Always.

 

[Smacktard]

So, I went to have something shipped from the US to Canada, and with the new tariffs, the cost of taxes and duties was equal to half the total value of the items. $140 in items = $70 in tariffs. So, suffice to say I'm not going to be purchasing much retro stuff for the next while. I just can't justify the insane tariffs.

For the next bit, I'll focus mostly only on occasional Saturn games that I want to have with me here to play while I'm in Saudi. No more having NES, GB, SNES, N64 stuff shipped back to Canada.

 

[MC74]

So, I went to have something shipped from the US to Canada, and with the new tariffs, the cost of taxes and duties was equal to half the total value of the items. $140 in items = $70 in tariffs. So, suffice to say I'm not going to be purchasing much retro stuff for the next while. I just can't justify the insane tariffs.

For the next bit, I'll focus mostly only on occasional Saturn games that I want to have with me here to play while I'm in Saudi. No more having NES, GB, SNES, N64 stuff shipped back to Canada.

Sucks that we have to suffer through this bullshit. There's stuff I'd like to have to, but the tariffs have made it a no-no. Add in the increasing prices and well....

 

[Smacktard]

Sucks that we have to suffer through this bullshit. There's stuff I'd like to have to, but the tariffs have made it a no-no. Add in the increasing prices and well....

I mean, my retro collection obsession is incredibly minor compared to the other bullshit many people--myself included--are going through right now. Just something that kind of shocked me when I went to ship something and saw how expensive this dumbass trade war has made things, and I thought I'd share my intel here.

I still think retro prices are going to crater over the next few years, between high tariffs, markets crashing, and people losing their jobs. I spoke to a Canadian seller and he said that he's not really buying anymore, and neither is anyone else. At the end of Trump's presidency, I think we'll finally begin to see some good deals again when the tariffs are relaxed.

 

[MC74]

I mean, my retro collection obsession is incredibly minor compared to the other bullshit many people--myself included--are going through right now. Just something that kind of shocked me when I went to ship something and saw how expensive this dumbass trade war has made things, and I thought I'd share my intel here.

It's much appreciated, believe you me. Even if it's minor, it's important to note nonetheless how ridiculous this is getting.

I still think retro prices are going to crater over the next few years, between high tariffs, markets crashing, and people losing their jobs. I spoke to a Canadian seller and he said that he's not really buying anymore, and neither is anyone else. At the end of Trump's presidency, I think we'll finally begin to see some good deals again when the tariffs are relaxed.

I sure hope so, Kelly. It can't come soon enough. I know he lost in 2020, but it sure fucking feels like 9 years of this madness, with no signs of it stopping. -___-

I just want the pain to end. I want it to be over.

 

[Crazy Jamie]

I don't have my finger on the pulse as much as I used to over here, but I don't think we see the same fluctuations in prices across the board. Clearly we're a smaller market, but I don't know immediately how that necessarily affects things. One thing I do know is that there are a lot of resellers over here, and I expect that has the effect of keeping prices higher. I'm sure there are a lot of resellers in the US, but it may be different in a country where there is a much larger land mass. Over here resellers can cover the entire country in a handful of hours, so they hoover up local deals on things like Facebook really quickly and easily, and it's also very difficult to get good deals on things like Ebay nowadays. You largely have to buy bundles for a smaller overall discount, or just buy at the current price accepting that the price will eventually go up.

The main thing that notably affects the price of individual items over here is changes in the conditions of certain games, whether that is a subsequent release increasing demand (usually a sequel, or a movie release or something has happened with Deadpool), or one decreasing it (though I think the effects of this are comparatively minor compared to what I'm reading in this thread so far). Other incidents are rare. There was one recently with Rule of Rose on PS2, which was banned in the UK, so the only copies available were European copies, which still worked on UK PS2 consoles, but were harder to get hold off. I think I bought my copy for somewhere around £350. But then last year they found a warehouse full of sealed UK Rule of Rose copies that were never distributed before it was banned. So they flood Ebay, and the price obviously crashes. My European copy is now worth much less. Initially the sealed UK PS2 copies were going for £400-500, but then that price massively came down when people realised how many there were. A couple of months ago they were going for £250 or so. I've just checked Ebay now and they're available for £170.

That sort of market impact is rare though, and is obviously game specific. I'm not sure there's going to be any notable impact over here from the economic fallout. The video game market here is very insular, and US or European copies of games are usually much less desirable, with some US exclusive games on region free consoles being the exception. But on the whole, I don't expect there'll be much of an impact.

 

[Smacktard]

I don't have my finger on the pulse as much as I used to over here, but I don't think we see the same fluctuations in prices across the board. Clearly we're a smaller market, but I don't know immediately how that necessarily affects things. One thing I do know is that there are a lot of resellers over here, and I expect that has the effect of keeping prices higher. I'm sure there are a lot of resellers in the US, but it may be different in a country where there is a much larger land mass. Over here resellers can cover the entire country in a handful of hours, so they hoover up local deals on things like Facebook really quickly and easily, and it's also very difficult to get good deals on things like Ebay nowadays. You largely have to buy bundles for a smaller overall discount, or just buy at the current price accepting that the price will eventually go up.

The main thing that notably affects the price of individual items over here is changes in the conditions of certain games, whether that is a subsequent release increasing demand (usually a sequel, or a movie release or something has happened with Deadpool), or one decreasing it (though I think the effects of this are comparatively minor compared to what I'm reading in this thread so far). Other incidents are rare. There was one recently with Rule of Rose on PS2, which was banned in the UK, so the only copies available were European copies, which still worked on UK PS2 consoles, but were harder to get hold off. I think I bought my copy for somewhere around £350. But then last year they found a warehouse full of sealed UK Rule of Rose copies that were never distributed before it was banned. So they flood Ebay, and the price obviously crashes. My European copy is now worth much less. Initially the sealed UK PS2 copies were going for £400-500, but then that price massively came down when people realised how many there were. A couple of months ago they were going for £250 or so. I've just checked Ebay now and they're available for £170.

That sort of market impact is rare though, and is obviously game specific. I'm not sure there's going to be any notable impact over here from the economic fallout. The video game market here is very insular, and US or European copies of games are usually much less desirable, with some US exclusive games on region free consoles being the exception. But on the whole, I don't expect there'll be much of an impact.

That's an interesting point, although a worldwide recession will almost certainly depress UK prices too. But you're right, tariffs in/from the US won't affect buying/selling PAL games as much as it would US items. I was thinking of trying to focus more on PAL and JP items, too. There's a few PAL games I'm eyeing, and over the next four years might be the time to do it.

Also, never knew that about Rule of Rose. That's super interesting.

 

[Smacktard]

From a Reddit thread:

I’ve own a successful retro game store for 17 years. (Half video games / half TCG store)

Things of note.

People selling out at an all time high. Our buying is up there (or higher) then when we reopened after the stay at home order and so many were without jobs.

Sales are good, but can’t remotely keep up with buying. So many of my biggest collectors are “taking a break” or selling off chunks of their collection. (Both cards and video games)

People are hurting for money, and it looks like it will get worse.

 

[Fool's Requiem]

"Does that mean you'll reduce the prices of items you're selling?"

"Do what now?"

Local game stores may not buy at the ridiculously low prices that Game Stop does, but they're still buying stuff incredibly cheaply and then selling most items above market value.

I traded in a copy of Pokémon Stadium 2 with the manual and an after market box that I bought to keep a known collectors item safe. They were initially only going to give me 30 for it before I told them I wouldn't go less than 50, and they obliged.

On Price Charting, the cart alone goes for 70+ with the manual being another 15, the after market box was like 5 bucks. My cart was immaculate, too, so it was likely worth more than 75. I guarantee that when I go into that store and see it in their locked case where the expensive items go, that it will be priced at like 100 bucks. Of course Pokémon shit sells like hot cakes, so I might not even see it on the shelf the next time I go there, but 100 bucks is what I assume they'd price it at.

I understand that they have to make a profit, pay the rent, pay the staff, and whatnot, but if you want to get people to buy shit when there's an economic crisis, you need to sell cheaper than what eBay sellers are selling for, not MORE, because you're not BUYING those games for nearly as much as they're being sold for on eBay.

Of course, there are some stores that always have sales. There's a store about an hour and a half away that has a persistent buy two get one free save for select systems (like the Switch). A closer store has a massive library also had a buy three get one free for all games. Not sure if it was for that weekend alone or what. The two closest stores I shop at almost never have sales. One has a sale on holiday weekends, but that's it. The store I mentioned above that I practically gave my copy of Pokémon Stadium 2 for peanuts never has a sale. Their prices aren't awful, and I can routinely find stuff cheaper than market (because they don't routinely change the price tags), but many of the more expensive items are ALWAYS above market value, regardless of condition.

Their trade-in system is also antiquated as fuck. They use a piece of paper to help people track how much store credit they have, despite having a website (that never lists their whole inventory). They're not even using the prices of games to help pay for a digital store credit system...

 

[Smacktard]

FWIW you get different results from different places. One shop I go to back home always gives me very fair prices and throws in a game or two I want if they're not too pricey.

Also, some FB sellers have reached out to me offering better prices than they had quoted originally. It does seem to me like the buying has eased up a bit. But I do think you're right -- it feels like the sellers haven't started entertaining the idea of lower prices as much as they ought to be.