Zell Wolf GWF Zell Version XI Wolf Day 2

[Kat]

Okay, okay, you probably want me to address the "making a big deal out of voting records" thing. I don't take any credit for Jawneh, I just went along with what TD suggested. I didn't even expect him (or anybody) to get lynched. It makes sense the wolves didn't vote for him though, doesn't it? Why wouldn't we pay attention to that when we have that information? Usually you're all for analyzing voting patterns.

 

[Benzine]

Okay, okay, you probably want me to address the "making a big deal out of voting records" thing. I don't take any credit for Jawneh, I just went along with what TD suggested. I didn't even expect him (or anybody) to get lynched. It makes sense the wolves didn't vote for him though, doesn't it? Why wouldn't we pay attention to that when we have that information? Usually you're all for analyzing voting patterns.

let the people know

 

[Tommy Boy]

I'd like to see why nobody died last night. Was the targeted player jailed? Would there be others reasons a wolf kill wouldn't go through? I would imagine wolves would split their votes so if the first choice failed, the second would hit, but that didn't happen. Any thoughts on how no kill would be today's result?

 

[Kat]

The simplest explanation is whoever they targeted was protected somehow. The other option is they chose not to kill, but that seems unlikely. I'm not sure what you mean about splitting votes to get a second choice, though. They only get one kill attempt.

At least it seems likely they don't have a berserk wolf.

 

[Kat]

Oh the other possibility is they tried to kill the SK, since that'll fail. That seems to happen more often than it ought to.

 

[Tommy Boy]

The simplest explanation is whoever they targeted was protected somehow. The other option is they chose not to kill, but that seems unlikely. I'm not sure what you mean about splitting votes to get a second choice, though. They only get one kill attempt.

At least it seems likely they don't have a berserk wolf.

I learned when I was wolf that wolves can split votes. Essentially, if there are three wolves remaining, two could vote for Billy and one could vote for Johnny. If Billy was unavailable to have a night action performed against them, the wolves vote kill fails and is nullified. But since one wolf voted for Johnny, and Johnny is unprotected and alive, it goes through.

Maybe this mechanic doesn't work against protection, and even if the votes are split, because the target was alive, it was nullified without another action happening. Maybe @Zell 17 can clarify for me so I don't muddy the shallow waters of understanding.

 

[Kat]

Huh, the wolves always voted unanimously when I was a wolf. I'm assuming "unavailable" means "already killed" and that such a thing wouldn't work against an alive person immune to dying, since that makes protection worthless, but it'd be good to get clarification from Zell.

 

[Fool's Requiem]

The simplest explanation is whoever they targeted was protected somehow. The other option is they chose not to kill, but that seems unlikely. I'm not sure what you mean about splitting votes to get a second choice, though. They only get one kill attempt.

Or the person they attempted to kill was in jail.

 

[Kat]

Or the person they attempted to kill was in jail.

Yeah, I was lumping that and things like the red lady visiting someone under "protected".

 

[VashTheStampede]

 

[Zell 17]

Huh, the wolves always voted unanimously when I was a wolf. I'm assuming "unavailable" means "already killed" and that such a thing wouldn't work against an alive person immune to dying, since that makes protection worthless, but it'd be good to get clarification from Zell.

It’s detailed in the wolf dictionary, but no it would be useless against protection.

Basically, any vote for a person who is already dead is changed to “No vote”. If the wolves all vote unanimously for someone who gets killed during the night, then the wolves votes for no kill. But if two wolves vote no kill and one wolf votes to kill someone, then the person being voted gets attacked.

 

[Benzine]

What

 

[Zell 17]

What

What’s the hold up sir

 

[VashTheStampede]

What

Yeah

 

[VashTheStampede]

OKAY WEREWOLVES LETS GO BREAK INTO THAT DUDES HOUSE AND EAT EM

AWOOOOOO

OH SHIT HES ALREADY DEAD

THATS COOL, FRANK HAD A BACKUP PLAN AND HES ACROSS THE STREET EATING TOBY

AWOOOOO

 

[Benzine]

any other rules/concepts we've blithely ignored?

 

[Benzine]

any other rules/concepts we've blithely ignored?

TURBO KILL

SEND KEY PHRASE TURBO KILL TO EXPRESS KILL TARGET

 

[VashTheStampede]

TURBO KILL

SEND KEY PHRASE TURBO KILL TO EXPRESS KILL TARGET

Nah bro I already activated Turbo Kill Nullification because when the Nullifier is in prison with a player who has had a seer claim to have seen him, he gets Turbo Kill Nullification

 

[Zell 17]

Alright let’s go into wolf mechanics based on these rules:

1) In order to abstain from killing, ALL wolves must decide not to kill. Any vote from any wolf to kill a player means a kill will be attempted. So if the Alpha Wolf sleeps through the night, it’s no big deal because the wolves can still kill without his/her vote.

2) Players who die are immediately removed from the game and any pending actions taken against them are cancelled. It’s not just for wolves. If the marksman kills someone, the witch doesn’t lose their potion if they attempt to kill them the same night. Whether it’s Jawneh, Mark, or Obama, you can’t perform an action against someone who is not in the game

 

[Benzine]

I seer @Mark

 

[VashTheStampede]

@Christina told me to gif search "smuggler" and I need a divorce now

ALSO this whole wolf split vote thing came up at one point when Christina and I were cupideded and she was trying to swoop the wolf vote out from under them (because of how some wolves don't get a vote while they still have a power) so... you know...something to think about if there is a wolf in a Lovers situation that wants to plan to fuck over their team

Love you bye

 

[Benzine]

Nah bro I already activated Turbo Kill Nullification because when the Nullifier is in prison with a player who has had a seer claim to have seen him, he gets Turbo Kill Nullification

Yeah but the wolves have knullification and have become significantly stronger with the death of @canadaguy

 

[VashTheStampede]

Yeah but the wolves have knullification and have become significantly stronger with the death of @canadaguy

Not even Shadow Wolf King can save us

 

[shortkut]

@Christina told me to gif search "smuggler" and I need a divorce now

ALSO this whole wolf split vote thing came up at one point when Christina and I were cupideded and she was trying to swoop the wolf vote out from under them (because of how some wolves don't get a vote while they still have a power) so... you know...something to think about if there is a wolf in a Lovers situation that wants to plan to fuck over their team

Love you bye

That’s what led me to fucking up your tried to victory

 

[VashTheStampede]

That’s what led me to fucking up your tried to victory

Yeah we were total badasses

 

[shortkut]

Yeah we were total badasses

still are

 

[TD]

@TD no fuckin way you haven't posted yet

Busy night, had Friendsmas, dinner and game night. Cleaning up then I'll see what's going on.

@TD what's your stance on how the Raiders are doing this season?

Thursday was great. Defense is good. Everything else is shit.

 

[TD]

Okay, I'm caught up on a few things.

No wolf or SK kill:
- Protector role on an obvious target
- They went for Vash or FR if they were indeed jailed
- They targeted the SK
- SK stacking kills or is the Instigator

Observations:
- Vash was sus of FR yesterday, yet after apparently being jailed with him, he's changed his mind OR no weapon was dropped
- This does not clear either of them, it could mean no weapon dropped or used, this is especially notable with the new Warden changes
...I'm curious what changed.
- It should not be dismissed that Benzine and Jawneh both openly admitted in the day phase they would come for each other even if they were wolves, we should be watching Benzine closely too
- Tommy, Tubby, Dean, and Kat all had some involvement in trying to get people to expose their roles

Voting patterns:
- We had 5 on Jawneh, it dropped to 4 when Tubby moved to Kat, but eventually moved back to Jawneh
- There was considerable delay for the other votes: Dean, FR, and shortkut
- It could be coincidence but it could also mean that wolves decided to talk it out and sacrifice Jawneh

So right now there's 4 I'm interested in.
Dean, FR, Tubby, and shortkut

I'm going to vote Tubby (sorry #TeamTubby) for now but I'm curious what others have to say.

 

[Tommy Boy]

As far as Solo Killer goes:

1. Alchemist - Nobody has reported any potions being brought about. Definitely no black potions. Likelihood low.
2. Arsonist - Betting on this one or one like this. No kills last night by both killing teams? Sus. Could be dousing. Likelihood high.
3. Corruptor - Nobody seems to have been muted yesterday or today so probably not in game.
4. Evil Detective - Either really good guesses or not in game. 50/50 chance
5. Illusionist - Might have the same odds as the Arsonist since nobody died last night. Likelihood high.
6. Instigator - Not in the game
7. Serial Killer - Again, could be stacking or could not exist. Not sure. Likelihood maybe.

 

[Benzine]

td because i tell people to keep an open mind doesn't mean i should get extra suspiciousness points. i should get credibility points for being first in on jawneh.

 

[Ben]

It's super late and I should totally be in bed by now as I need to get up at 7am, but I'm an idiot who doesn't sleep.

The main thoughts I've had while trying to catch up are below. I'm going to stick a /!\ in front of the accusatory points but with a caveat that I'm not at all confident but want to mention anyway;

1. I'd have suspected someone tried to off Vash on the first night, just because he's himand likely considered a threat if he's not on the wolf team. This would line up with the kill not going through if he was jailed with Fool's.
   • It seemed Fool's implied something happened while they were both jailed, implying that the weapon was dropped and it was not used, but they talked about their differences in the jail-conversation.
   • /!\ There is the possibility that Vash and Fool's are BOTH wolves and they just chose not to break out and kill the Warden. That would lead the Warden to assume they weren't capable of breaking out and giving them some long-running cover, over getting a single kill on the Warden. This feels like the kind of mastermind play that Vash might formulate. The thing stopping me from really chasing this is that they'd have to be subtle AF to communicate this plan without the Warden overhearing it, or would have had to pre-plan it all in just the first night.
   • /!\ Also, if this was true and they remained jailed they wouldn't have been able to wolf-vote for anyone. With Jawneh dead there are 3/4 wolves. If the third remaining wolf is the Wolf Seer, they wouldn't have been able to vote by themselves, which would have led to no wolf kill.
   • /!\ Dean has claimed a seer role but I didn't see anywhere their specifying if it was Aura/Spirit Seer. This was implied later with a claim that Jon was unknown, as opposed to a color, but the lack of initial distinction gave me some "they could be the only seer on the wolf team and it didn't click to specify aura/spirit seer" vibe.
   • /!\ Fool's seems to be implying that they're the Loudmouth in wanting someone to off them, with the whole "kill me and find out" vibe. They could also be the Avenger Wolf, which would lend credence to this thought.
   • I'm not super confident about any of this, it's just the "what if" scenario my brain chased.
2. While I was suspicious of Kat's pushing for role claims and from the vote watching, I also realize I'm a step away from plugging all evidence that could be pertinent into a spreadsheet, so I can't really fault the attempt to analyze everything and get more information. I'm a little less suspicious, for now.
3. I think Raine is trying to fuck people at night. In a nice way.
4. shortkut may actually be a ding dong.
5. I don't know what the odds are on Tommy getting the Cupid role again, but I guess weirder shit has happened. If he is, he'll know who he coupled, but not their role. I don't know what good it would do for the village if he revealed who he coupled though.

I'm running out of steam and can't go back to think about the rest right now, but I don't think I have any real read on Benzine, GWJumpman, Jon, Smacktard, TD or Tubby32 anyway.

I'll check back in like 5 hours after I drop my daughter at school, but probably won't have time to ponder more of this shit until later in the day.

 

[Kat]

Dean has claimed a seer role but I didn't see anywhere their specifying if it was Aura/Spirit Seer. This was implied later with a claim that Jon was unknown, as opposed to a color, but the lack of initial distinction gave me some "they could be the only seer on the wolf team and it didn't click to specify aura/spirit seer" vibe.

He did say the first day that FR had a good aura.

I don't know what the odds are

Oh no, please don't bring up odds!

- Vash was sus of FR yesterday, yet after apparently being jailed with him, he's changed his mind OR no weapon was dropped

I was curious about this too, if Vash decided not to kill FR or wasn't given the opportunity.

I'm glad you're not muted!

@Raine how 'bout it, want to have a girl's night and eat cookies? We'll either both be safe or die together.

 

[Benzine]

Can I have one pls

 

[Benzine]

Kat I live across the largest ocean on earth and will be going to bed before you

 

[Dean]

Not a lot happening. I have shown up on some sus lists, which is frustrating to be honest. There are two reasons people found me sus:
1. I told people my role early on and tried to get others to do the same. This was in response to other people like Tommy, Kat, Tubby, etc. and has been a valid strategy for the town and has led to the town winning every time. Ironically, some felt like I wasn't clear enough with my role or somehow still suspicious.
2. Supposedly I was piling on Jawneh late, even though I was like the fifth vote, and I think FR and maybe Tubby got on after me, so yeah. I wasn't entirely convinced when after I voted for Jawneh others bandwagoned, but if actually paid off for once. I wasn't a last minute bandwagon jumper. I was tired at 3 am and he had the most votes but still needed two more, and I think Kat had nearly as many.

I'm going to take my daughter to school, but I'll be around off and on today I'm between last minute Christmas shopping, etc.

 

[Dean]

Most people have hinted or claimed roles, or at the very least, specified if they are a powerless villager. There are still several who haven't. I need to do a venn diagram for people who haven't hinted/claimed a role and didn't vote for Jawneh.

 

[Dean]

Tommy claimed Cupid
Raine claimed Red Lady
Vash maybe hinting idk but FR seems to think he's alright
Jumpman hasn't claimed anything afaik
Jon I haven't seen claim or post much, unknown aura
Tubby has been less active than usual too and probably did hint or claim but I don't remember and it's like after midnight there
shortkut jumped on late but is claiming a watching role (sheriff?)


This is why I'm sticking with my vote for Jumpman Jumpman Jumpman that boy's still up to something

 

[Smacktard]

It seems logical to me that Dean and FR are partnered, and that the wolves are already aware of this. My bet is that last night they targetted FR in an attempt to get a two-for-one deal, but he was protected.

If Vash is a wolf, because he was imprisoned, he wouldn't be able to communicate with his team mates to change the target kill for the night. I've been imprisoned before and you're not allowed to talk to your team.

If both Vash and FR are wolves, they'd have nothing to lose from breaking out and killing the warden, so I don't think they're both wolves.

I vote Vash.

 

[Dean]

I'm tempted to tell you jerks to kill FR to prove we aren't coupled, but he was my first aura seer inquiry or whatever you call it, and he was a goodie two shoes

 

[Smacktard]

I'm tempted to tell you jerks to kill FR to prove we aren't coupled, but he was my first aura seer inquiry or whatever you call it, and he was a goodie two shoes

Even if you aren't coupled, it seems logical that the wolves thought you two were coupled due to how you were defending him, and targeted him as a result of that.

 

[Smacktard]

@Benzine Alu just posted some ciders he's picked up. Are you a cider guy?

 

[Fool's Requiem]

Just want an FYI everyone, the Warden knows what did and didn't happen. Including conversations had and weapons dropped (or not dropped).

 

[Dean]

Just want an FYI everyone, the Warden knows what did and didn't happen. Including conversations had and weapons dropped (or not dropped).

I assume the Warden doesn't want to step forward and role reveal, which is fine.

 

[GwJumpman]

I mentioned it I think once yesterday but I'm a regular townie. @Dean

 

[Dean]

I mentioned it I think once yesterday but I'm a regular townie. @Dean

What did you/your character do last night?

 

[GwJumpman]

What did you/your character do last night?

I have no night action

but if you're asking me personally, I played FFXI til midnight

 

[Fool's Requiem]

I assume the Warden doesn't want to step forward and role reveal, which is fine.

yeah, I'm not asking that to happen. They should 100% not say anything about it. They can basically protect two people per night if they play their cards right.

 

[TD]

/!\ There is the possibility that Vash and Fool's are BOTH wolves and they just chose not to break out and kill the Warden. That would lead the Warden to assume they weren't capable of breaking out and giving them some long-running cover, over getting a single kill on the Warden. This feels like the kind of mastermind play that Vash might formulate. The thing stopping me from really chasing this is that they'd have to be subtle AF to communicate this plan without the Warden overhearing it, or would have had to pre-plan it all in just the first night.

I was curious about this too, if Vash decided not to kill FR or wasn't given the opportunity.

If both Vash and FR are wolves it would make no sense to not break out and kill the Warden.

We don't know who the Warden is, there was no telegraph of who would be in there, and the Ritualist is dead.

Near zero chance they are both wolves.

However, they could absolutely be on different teams.

Let's say one or both of them were dropped a weapon and they used it.

- If they were both townies, the weapon user would die
- If they were on opposite teams, the weapon user would kill the person
- If we wake up to a townie murdered in jail, the Warden caught a bad guy

This is why I want to know what changed for Vash to not suspect FR anymore - in my book, neither of them are cleared.

And no - our Warden should NOT speak up.

 

[Fool's Requiem]

If we wake up to a townie murdered in jail, the Warden caught a bad guy

Not true. If a person uses the weapon against a member of their own team, the person using said weapon dies. So if a townie shoots a townie, that person dies and they've wasted the only shot that is available without proving that someone was or was not a wolf.

"Warden Aura: Unknown During the day, can select to jail two players at night. Selection is done via PM to me. Cannot jail fewer than two players and cannot jail the same player two nights in a row or jail themselves. Jailed players cannot perform any actions at night. Jailed players cannot be killed by normal wolf/solo attacks. Jailed players will be placed in a group chat for the night. The Warden cannot contribute to the discussion but will be given a full transcript. The Warden can choose to give either player a weapon. That player can choose to use it against the person they are jailed with. If a player attempts to use it against someone on their own team, the player using the weapon will die. Otherwise, the other prisoner will be killed. The weapon can only be used once per game, but if not used, the Warden can continue to offer it on future jailings. If the warden is nightmared, they can still detain two players. They will not be able to drop the weapon. If the Warden jails two wolves, the wolves can choose to break free of jail and kill the warden. If the warden is killed at night or the weapon is used, the players are immediately unjailed and may use night actions if available."

 

[TD]

Not true. If a person uses the weapon against a member of their own team, the person using said weapon dies. So if a townie shoots a townie, that person dies and they've wasted the only shot that is available without proving that someone was or was not a wolf.

I said all of this already. However like I said, the Warden would know what went down.

Hypothetically if I were the Warden, one person is getting the weapon. Not both.

This makes it a clear cut case.