Zell Wolf GWF Zell Wolf Version VII-2: REBIRTH Night 2 / Day 2

[Tommy Boy]

I'm willing to trust Repose in this case and deal with the aftermath because he has the strongest claim.

Based on WHAT? He came in and role claimed after I did. Out of all the information surrender to the town, it really comes down to the two legitimate reads I provided, and then Raposa's "read". How is his claim stronger than mine?

short of lynching Alu because I also don't fully believe a shaman would have targeted him as well, I will settle for Tommy who I believe set up TD and Raines double kill.

Is this why? Or is it because Kelly zeroed in on me and made it easier to make me look sus when all I've done was be trurthful. The same Kelly that came after me saying I was responding to Zell's explanation too quickly? Conveniently stopping all of that on a dime and then voting for shortkut? Makes me believe the tussle between Kelly and Cole was completely for show.

Or is it because Raposa barely participated besides giving his "read" and his vote? We just go with that now? That's stronger than my claim?

 

[Benzine]

I VOTE FOR RAPOSA

but i'll be awake for many many many more hours

 

[shortkut]

Again.

I vote shortkut.

Reason: voting for me after I've proven I'm town

Logic: TD would have had a way of guaranteeing whether I was wolf or town in jail when the weapon dropped. Read Warden's description.

Last post. You either join to vote shortkut and save the Tommy/Raposa debate for another day, or town burns.

If it makes you feel better, I was waiting to see where the Tommy vs raposuh debated ended before changing my vote. You’re currently in no danger of being lynched, so why are you being so pissy about my vote?

 

[Kat]

For the record, I wasn't suggesting anyone vote based on a die roll. I was just trying to get people talking and organized, because everyone was pointing fingers at different people.

 

[shortkut]

The town needs to 100% agree or we lose today, almost certainly.

That’s the problem. We are almost at the votes to lynch him and I know for a fact I haven’t voted for him. At least two people from my sus list have, one of which is very high on it. This leads me to want to vote raposuh

 

[Dean]

Abstain

 

[Tommy Boy]

Alright fuck it

Tommy, would you pick Alu or Raposuh at this point?

Raposa, I don't trust his read anymore and I think he could be framing Alu. But that's just speculation, I truly have no idea. But if Raposa was an aura seer why hasn't he asked for protection like me? Why wasn't he attacked last night when he role claimed? Why was I ignored by the wolves?

I mean, I asked this multiple times and nobody wanted to even discuss it. We're just believing the shaman thing, apparently.

This is exactly why I think things are getting fucked up. We're just believing the shaman thing, rather than believing the person who delivered reads both days, has been participating and responsive, has a history of fumbling lies, and wants the town to not lose.

For the record, I wasn't suggesting anyone vote based on a die roll. I was just trying to get people talking and organized, because everyone was pointing fingers at different people.

Fair enough, just was crazy to walk into and see that's how we were grasping straws lol.

 

[Benzine]

Mmmm. The wolves would need to keep an early proclaiming seer alive, even with ??? powers.

All aboard!

 

[Kat]

Raposa, I don't trust his read anymore and I think he could be framing Alu. But that's just speculation, I truly have no idea. But if Raposa was an aura seer why hasn't he asked for protection like me? Why wasn't he attacked last night when he role claimed? Why was I ignored by the wolves?

I gave some thought to this today. It makes sense the wolves wouldn't kill either of you if the other is a sorcerer. Even hiding your role with confusion, it confirms you as not evil, so there's no reason to doubt your claim. We'd just lynch the other person if the killed the real seer.

 

[Kat]

I'm not convinced by the early claim thing. We're all assuming sorcerer would claim aura seer regardless, so probably they'd do it even if they were first to the thread. It could be either IMO.

 

[shortkut]

What if I hold the town hostage and say I will revive Tommy if he's the target in an attempt to lynch Jawneh, who is certainly a naughty naughty boy.

What evidence do you have against Jawneh? Anything from the dedthred?

The fact that people believe he is the seer, had an EVIL read last night, and then vote for me to lynch - is anybody not seeing this? I could have easily lost my patience with Kelly being so aggressive earlier and just popped my vote on him, but I waited for some more discussion instead. All that happened was people forgetting what actually happened. If Raposa said Alu is evil, why the hell is the focus on me? And what exactly would the town be able to do when I am the dead aura seer tomorrow morning? This is fucked.

This has been gnawing at me

change vote to Raposuh

 

[Tommy Boy]

The problem here is that we need to make a lynch and I have no idea who else I'd redirect to at this point. It can't be me, but I also am not fully convinced about any of the information given by others anymore. It's going to make me look bad either way. And if we need to make a lynch and half the votes are already on me, I implore everyone to go back and see that I have not changed course the entire time. I've stuck to my guns - the truth - and will continue to fight against this lynch vote for me. If I make it to the night phase, I can't even check Raposa because his aura will show Good if he's a sorcerer and be a waste of a read.

Wolves found the perfect hole - let two people claim Aura Seer with one being the sorcerer, frame the wrong one so the town loses a lynch vote killing the real one. Gives an entire extra day and night phase to do whatever. Let's not forget the confusion that will absolutely activate and obscure any role information from being revealed.

I'm not convinced by the early claim thing. We're all assuming sorcerer would claim aura seer regardless, so probably they'd do it even if they were first to the thread. It could be either IMO.

That's a fair assessment. Then I think I would have to vote for Raposuh since I am the Aura Seer.

 

[Cole]

I for one do not believe Tommy is as bad at this game as he leads every one to believe.

he also thinks highly of my ability in this game.

and outlining exactly what has happened as if it were the grand scheme of someone else is something I like to do, and he knows that.

the first time there was a sorceror, the first person to claim aura seer was him, and he skated with no suspicion.

if I was the REAL aura seer and knew a sorcerer was in the game, id definitely let them claim it first this time.

why would raposa change his vote? well according to him he knows Alu is a wolf. but thanks to detective work by everyone else, he knows you're false claiming aura seer. so if the crowd isn't gonna go with Alu, getting the sorceror is even better. of COURSE he'd switch votes.

we still don't even know if there's a shaman. there a two different scenarios where Raposa is honest if we believe Alu.

and in two of them it results in Tommy being the bad guy.

 

[Tommy Boy]

It would be incredibly dense to go these lengths just to lie to everyone.

I for one do not believe Tommy is as bad at this game as he leads every one to believe.

I'm bad at being evil and lying, I'm not bad at this game when I can actually make a difference in the town.

he also thinks highly of my ability in this game.

and outlining exactly what has happened as if it were the grand scheme of someone else is something I like to do, and he knows that.

The grand scheme here is whatever the hell is happening behind the scenes. I've laid it all out yet the onus is still on me and not Raposa. Would a sorcerer go to these lengths, really? If that's truly what you believe, then do what you feel is right. I'm totally okay with you being wrong and getting humbled, but not at the expense of this entire game.

the first time there was a sorceror, the first person to claim aura seer was him, and he skated with no suspicion.

if I was the REAL aura seer and knew a sorcerer was in the game, id definitely let them claim it first this time.

Or you could just easily do what you did last time under the expectation nobody would ever consider it to happen again. Instead you are led to believe I am able to pull off some grand scheme by using other people's play style, when in fact, I have not once deviated from my own this game. It's being honest, direct, and with the town in mind. I will not back down, I am not the sorcerer.

why would raposa change his vote? well according to him he knows Alu is a wolf. but thanks to detective work by everyone else, he knows you're false claiming aura seer.

What detective work proves that I am false claiming Aura Seer? The possibility of a shaman? So we're basing this off a possibility rather than actual evidence. If that's what it is, that's fine. But it sucks when I've provided real information and everyone is cool with shelving the Raposa/Alu thing until tomorrow. Wait, who said that? Oh right, Kelly. The person butting heads with you and me only to vote for shortkut. That makes total sense.

 

[Smacktard]

let's count the logical fallacies:

did you really mock me for believing someone in a game of deception and that assume we should believe you becsuse what? you say so?

1. Discrediting the source. "Why should we trust you?" Yes, I did mock you. Your reasons for picking Tommy over Raposa are nonsensical. You should believe me about being in jail with TD and not being killed because no one has come out to the contrary, and doing so now would be too late. There's not just "because I said so" -- there's proof: I gave Raine and TD's roles and I'm the only other person who claimed to be jailed, because I was. So far, I'm the only provable townie. If I was a wolf, TD would've killed me in jail, simple as.

zell is of the belief that reads are always wrong, and it's the word of roles that can tell that should be trusted.

2. Tu quoque. "Don't do vibe checks (but I can!)"Tommy's claiming a seer, so you're saying "you're stupid for doing vibe checks right now and you should trust the seer (no not that seer!)"

3. Selective reaaoning. "Zell strategies are a bad justification for acting a certain way, except when it suits me to bring them up". Before said Zell's strategies are bad, but suddenly when it suits you, you say they're good?

but now you don't wanna trust a seer thst you authenticated because he cleared you.

4. False premise fallacy. "He cleared you therefore he's a good seer". Clearing me does not prove he's a good seer. You keep choosing to ignore that there is a sorcerer in the game. I'm betting your so tilted because your gambit of claiming I'm good isn't paying off like you'd hoped it would.

I'm willing to trust Repose in this case and deal with the aftermath because he has the strongest claim.

5. Appeal to authority. "He has the strongest claim because I said so."

It should be obvious to anyone paying attention who isn't a wolf that Cole IS a wolf. I hope it's at least obvious to the witch. He wouldn't provide a role type, he hasn't hinted at or indicated a role, he's using faulty reasoning to move people AWAY from voting Raposa.

It's possible that Raposa IS legit aura seer, and that Tommy and Cole are both on the same teams, and that Cole is making Raposa look guilty by associating with him and making really dumb arguments. It would be a big brain play.

The counter to this would be to simply vote Cole, but since the entire town is stuck on this ridiculous and short-sighted false dilemma of whether to vote Tommy or Raposa,

I vote Raposa.
last post btw lol

 

[Smacktard]

Oh right, Kelly

Tommy I can't believe I literally told you what my role was and you still didn't get it.

But also this only confirms your town in my view lol

 

[Tommy Boy]

Tommy I can't believe I literally told you what my role was and you still didn't get it.

Oh damn you're right lol, I got it now.

 

[Tommy Boy]

Well, wait. You told everyone, but you didn't do anything on night 1? Or did I miss that?

 

[Smacktard]

Well, wait. You told everyone, but you didn't do anything on night 1? Or did I miss that?

 

[Tommy Boy]

Friggin heck you were in jail. Got it. Sorry lol.

 

[Smacktard]

guys don't vote for Tommy, he's the fool

 

[Tommy Boy]

But if Raine was the warden and was killed because of the berserk, wouldn't you be released from jail and your night power would activate? Why didn't it? Order of actions?

Voodoo wolf / Librarian mute
Marksman shot
Witch kill (if not killed by marksman, otherwise potion unused)
Jailer/Warden kill (if not killed by marksman/witch)
Red Lady visit
Revived players return from the dead (cannot be targeted by wolves/solo in same night)
Solo killer attack
Wolf berserk mode activates
Wolves kill

If the warden is killed at night, the players are immediately unjailed and may use night actions if available.

@Zell 17 There is no role that can kill before the Librarian action takes place. But there are no roles that can perform non-kill actions after a warden is killed besides wolves and a spirit seer check. So what is the point of the unjailed players having the ability to perform their actions if most, if not all, actions for the night are already done? Is it literally just for the spirit seer/sheriff to be able to get a check in? What are the odds of this situation even being relevant?

 

[Local Hero]

Finally the town made a choice. Though I think it's 50 50 between Alu and Raposa.

Vote Raposa

 

[Local Hero]

I think wolves are Raposa, Alu, Smacktard,

Then maybe shortkut, Cole, Jawneh?

 

[Smacktard]

But if Raine was the warden and was killed because of the berserk, wouldn't you be released from jail and your night power would activate? Why didn't it? Order of actions?

I thought the same thing and asked Zell when I realized I'd fucked up. He can confirm that shush is supposed to happen BEFORE release via wolf kill, so it didn't activate.

I dunno dude, just saying what he told me.

 

[Local Hero]

Especially Kelly

 

[Smacktard]

If Local's trying to look sus to get me to move off of Raposa, it's not working.

It's likely wolves join our lynch and then dip end of day like they did yesterday. We need MORE than 7 votes going into the lynch.

Please feel free to ignore this post and then ask by end of day why there are 9 votes and then change your vote.

 

[Local Hero]

BTW, I think Alu is the wearwolf fan

 

[Smacktard]

If Local's trying to vote Raposa then look sus to get me to move off of Raposa, it's not working.

It's likely wolves join our lynch and then dip end of day like they did yesterday. We need MORE than 7 votes going into the lynch.

Please feel free to ignore this post and then ask by end of day why there are 9 votes and then change your vote.

 

[Local Hero]

If Local's trying to look sus to get me to move off of Raposa, it's not working.

It's likely wolves join our lynch and then dip end of day like they did yesterday. We need MORE than 7 votes going into the lynch.

Please feel free to ignore this post and then ask by end of day why there are 9 votes and then change your vote.

Okay I'll ignore this post.

If Local's trying to vote Raposa then look sus to get me to move off of Raposa, it's not working.

It's likely wolves join our lynch and then dip end of day like they did yesterday. We need MORE than 7 votes going into the lynch.

Please feel free to ignore this post and then ask by end of day why there are 9 votes and then change your vote.

Though you're making it pretty hard

 

[Smacktard]

Though you're making it pretty hard

I've been known to have that effect on people

 

[Tubby23]

I've been known to have that effect on people

 

[Smacktard]

Edited to make more sense:

2. Tu quoque. "Don't do vibe checks (but I can!)"Tommy's claiming see, Alu is claiming seer apprentice, and Raposa is saying Alu is evil, so you're saying "you're stupid for doing vibe checks right now and you should trust one seer specifically (no not that seer!)"

Cole: At the end of the day it boils down to which claim is more believable: that Alu is a seer apprentice, or that Raposa is the real seer, and that Alu is lying, and that Tommy is probably lying, too.

In this game I've seen Alu and Tommy work in favor of the town. Meanwhile, I've seen you and Local actively work against the town by sowing confusion and chaos and making every conclusion OTHER than the logical ones -- because the logical conclusion would fucking bury you.

 

[Smacktard]

It's telling that none of the wolves at least tried to pile on to my vote for Local when I said it was my last post, or at least argue in favor of it. If I were a wolf and Local weren't, it would be easy to rationalize that me trying to strong-arm the town into voting one way might be a good idea. You'd only have to sell a single person on the idea. And yet no one tried.

I wonder why.

I hope the witch doesn't go after Local tonight, because I'm inclined to believe Tommy is a legit seer, and if so, Local is neutral and thus must be the alpha wolf. We need to target Cole after we lynch Raposa.

 

[Jawneh]

Today really drove me insane. Worked ended up being crazy towards the end and even though I'm dead tired this freaking game keeps me from sleeping. Ugh.

What's happened un the last uhh... 7 hours? Who we bagging?

 

[Jawneh]

I'll probably crash in an hour and might miss the end of day too. I'm not eager to try to crawl out if bed early for it.

 

[Jawneh]

Skimming last page, we're going for Raposa? What decided between him and Tommy? I see Kelly voting Raposa too even after being adamant about Tommy being a liar. What's up?

 

[Smacktard]

Skimming last page, we're going for Raposa? What decided between him and Tommy? I see Kelly voting Raposa too even after being adamant about Tommy being a liar. What's up?

Here's what's up:

• All of the people I think are wolves are trying to convince the town to vote for Tommy using fault logic
• The people I think most likely to be town are the ones working together and making logical arguments
• And yet, the town, having been manipulated into a false dilemma by wolves, is refusing to vote for anyone suspicious other than Tommy or Raposa
• So it's a 50/50 toss-up between him and Raposa

Also Cole is a wolf. That's it. That's all I will say.

 

[Jawneh]

What made you dip from Tommy then? Before Tommy's long post people weren't convinced about him being good and you were calling him a liar yourself earlier today. Raposa pointed at Alu as being evil. I can understand not going after him if Raposa is full of shit, but both their seer info has been believable otherwise, so I don't see Tommy having an advantage here either for lynching.

 

[Smacktard]

What made you dip from Tommy then? Before Tommy's long post people weren't convinced about him being good and you were calling him a liar yourself earlier today. Raposa pointed at Alu as being evil. I can understand not going after him if Raposa is full of shit, but both their seer info has been believable otherwise, so I don't see Tommy having an advantage here either for lynching.

What made me dip from Tommy is that Cole was trying desperately to move people away from voting Raposa. Before this he was saying that it was hopeless, that the town has lost, that there's no valid strategy. Then suddenly when people start thinking about voting for Raposa, he's here touting his own strategy using flawed logic? And then Local throws a vote on Tommy, starts acting deliberately sus by accusing me even though I've proven that I'm townie because otherwise TD would've killed me last night in jail (it's impossible to bluff in Warden's jail under the right conditions if a weapon is dropped, if you get me).

I still am not 100% convinced on Tommy. The real big brain move to make IMO is still to vote for Cole (I'm too concerned that Local really IS the alpha, and Tommy's right), but it's better to vote for Raposa IMO because as disorganized as they currently are, it only makes sense to switch off of them if you're trying to sow chaos (like Cole was trying to do by convincing people to move from Tommy to Alu at one point).

 

[Jawneh]

Spitballing here, as I'm racking my brain, for tonight, are we sure the wolves won't just pop guardian on either one and leave it to the Witch to handle? (Dean right?) Considering chaos, it would work more in their favor than simply saving a sorcerer.

More for tonight, clearly we need to scatter our protections. Same folks on same numbers? Are we shuffling them up? Flagger(s) posted on what is the second or third sus person right now? Seers picks? Yes, obtuse ways of just saying things, but damn if I'm focusing on allocating names or numbers for people from bed on my phone lol.

 

[Smacktard]

are we sure the wolves won't just pop guardian on either one and leave it to the Witch to handle

This is almost certainly exactly what will happen, and why we need to vote anyway -- to force them to use their guardian power. It could happen just a single second before the end of the day. Then it's up to the witch to make the right call and save us all.

 

[Jawneh]

What made me dip from Tommy is that Cole was trying desperately to move people away from voting Raposa. Before this he was saying that it was hopeless, that the town has lost, that there's no valid strategy. Then suddenly when people start thinking about voting for Raposa, he's here touting his own strategy using flawed logic? And then Local throws a vote on Tommy, starts acting deliberately sus by accusing me even though I've proven that I'm townie because otherwise TD would've killed me last night in jail (it's impossible to bluff in Warden's jail under the right conditions if a weapon is dropped, if you get me).

I'll give you the Cole part. That's definitely not how he'd play it from a town perspective. Local I'm not even going to worry about as he can sling crap either way to make things worse if you try to read into it.

I do have to bring this thing up, but your not 100% clear yourself. WW fan would live through warden. There's potentially you being it, or in a long shot big balls move, you're a wolf and decided to feign being jailed after getting TD and Raine. Latter case of course there's insane luck that the fan was involved in all of that as well. This is why I've been keeping my tab on you especially since you being the fan was a consideration yesterday too for me.

I still am not 100% convinced on Tommy. The real big brain move to make IMO is still to vote for Cole (I'm too concerned that Local really IS the alpha, and Tommy's right), but it's better to vote for Raposa IMO because as disorganized as they currently are, it only makes sense to switch off of them if you're trying to sow chaos (like Cole was trying to do by convincing people to move from Tommy to Alu at one point).

Well, we can vote Cole and... I'm seeing guardian again today no matter what. The Little bit I'm giving Cole is that I'd say voting Alu over Tommy would be better as we'd really like to enjoy an aura seer, especially since Alu said he's only the apprentice. At that time I'm a vacuum, going with at least some seer direction is better than try to fight between which one is the real seer. We would not kill the real seer, and if Raposa lied, he'd be next to get axed anyhow. Or it's true and Tommy is gone after Alu.

 

[Jawneh]

This is almost certainly exactly what will happen, and why we need to vote anyway -- to force them to use their guardian power. It could happen just a single second before the end of the day. Then it's up to the witch to make the right call and save us all.

Well fuck. Let's make the wishy washiest townie make the critical call lol.

 

[Smacktard]

WW fan would live through warden. There's potentially you being it, or in a long shot big balls move, you're a wolf and decided to feign being jailed after getting TD and Raine.

Right, but no one else claimed being jailed last night. And it's too late for them to do it know because they know it would look desperate. I'll grant you that the fan could survive jail, but I gave my role away in my very first post that I made Day 1 and promised I would make good today by proving it. The only reason I couldn't prove it is because I was jailed. I certainly didn't intend to get jailed yesterday, and even TD asked to be put in a cell with Local, not with me.

Like you said, guardian wolf is probably coming out today regardless, as long as there are votes for a wolf, so it probably doesn't matter whether we vote Cole or Raposuh -- as long as one of them is bewitched tonight.

 

[Smacktard]

Peak Jawneh posting is comfy times btw.

 

[Smacktard]

Well fuck. Let's make the wishy washiest townie make the critical call lol.

Don't doubt yourself. You make good calls in games I've played with you, and I appreciate someone who's trying to think things through logically instead of just slinging mud and being indecisive.

 

[Jawneh]

I got my feels, but I prefer mid game logical thinking when we got some facts to go on. So far, we don't got much concrete things going on so I'm at a slight loss in that sense.

i need some shut eye. About to drip my phone on the floor. Ill try to wake up and grab my phone before the day ends.

 

[Tubby23]

I'll vote Raposuh

But I maintain that I think Tommy is the better candidate. I'm not really convinced by his defense but hey I suppose he at least had one.

 

[Smacktard]

I'll vote Raposuh

But I maintain that I think Tommy is the better candidate. I'm not really convinced by his defense but hey I suppose he at least had one.

Who are your top candidates for hydrant hydraters?